Afghan victory "could take 38 years"
The Guardian UK: (h/t Gregory)
British troops could remain in Afghanistan for more than the 38 years it took them to pull out of Northern Ireland. That is the bleak assessment by Army commanders on the ground in Helmand province.
In an interview with The Observer at HQ in the provincial capital Lashkar Gah, Brigadier John Lorimer, commander of UK forces in Helmand, said: 'If you look at the insurgency then it could take maybe 10 years. Counter-narcotics, it's 30 years. If you're looking at governance and so on, it looks a little longer. If you look at other counter-insurgency operations over the last 100 years then it has taken time.'
His scenario is the starkest assessment yet from a senior officer tasked with defeating the Taliban, tackling the heroin trade and rebuilding the war-ravaged country. Last week troops pulled out of Northern Ireland after 38 years, the longest operation in UK military history. Afghanistan, commanders fear, may take longer.[..]
Scores of soldiers have succumbed to heatstroke while hundreds have battled on despite dehabilitating illness. Almost 50 out of 160 forward troops reported severe sickness and diarrhoea in the forward base at Sangin last month. A number of troops have lost limbs during firefights in the upper Gereshk valley, south of Sangin.
I can't imagine anyone involved--the Americans, NATO, the Brits or most of all, the Afghanis--being okay with this lasting that long.
Just like the Soviets... lather, rinse, repeat. (:>
People don't understand that Afghans may not be ther brightest bulbs but they certainly fight like warriors and they fight to death. I have personally interacted with them, being from Pakistan where a lot of refugees from any war thats taken place over there in the last three decades are still found. They will bleeed tyo death but cannot give up. Honorable but not neccesarily the smart.
Did anyone in this administration bother checking out a history book and reading it before they started these wars? Rhetorical question.
Patricia,
Yes, it's called the bible.
P.O.P,
sure, if you consider "my pet goat" to be a history book!
Gone from Grandpop, to Pop to Jr Pops.
And when 38 years pass, they'll beg for 'just six more months! - pleeeeeeeeze!"
Uhm, did the British ever declare victory against the Irish, or did they just pack up their toys and go home?
Are the Irish defeated? did they get bombed to ruin until they lost all hope and acquiesced to British rule?
Perhaps I don't understand the analogy these folks keep making?
I told you guys this 7-8 months ago!
If you would have read the offical Pentegon documents you would have already known this. But I guess I am/was just a conspiracy theorist. The documents say 30-100 years in that region.
THE TROOPS ARE NOT COMING HOME!
I guess 2 years from now there're going to divide up Iraq into 3 parts.
It'll take a very long time to get a pipeline built from the Caspian sea through Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The Alaskan pipeline (700 miles) was built in just over 3 years. This trek will be more treacherous and will cover more like 1300 miles. Keep pumpin' an drivin' guys.
Well, Ireland has been at war with the mainland off and on for 800 years. That's probably a good indicator of how long it will take to not conquer Afghanistan.
When are we going to stop kidding ourselves.These wars were planned well in advance of 9-11 and are about securing energy resources for the corporations that dictate our and Britain's foreign policy.
Part of the subtext I am reading:
By hook or crook, by draft or smarmy recruiting/dwindling career options, the kids that are born today will be fed into the meat grinder at some point.
We have always been at war with Eastasia. We were never at war Eurasia.
i think i'm going to like the two family system of bush and clinton.
bush and clinton all the time for the next 50 years.
that's so awesome for us!
what freedom can i give you today?
And we're going to war with Iran, too - just look
VIDEO
http://beta.redlasso.com/Community/ClipPlayer.aspx?i=fb9fbee3-18b6-434a-...
We're going to be at war for a very long time
cynick @ 4:
Only the magic Christian spell didn't work this time (not that it ever did).
the connies love decades long war so they can wax poetic about "sacrifice" while Warren Buffet pays twice as much in taxe rates as his secretary
I meant the secretary pays twice as much as warren
Couldn't they do it in 36 years instead?
"I can’t imagine anyone involved–the Americans, NATO, the Brits or most of all, the Afghanis–being okay with this lasting that long."
Well, lots of Neocons in the rightie think tanks, NRO, and elsewhere have been talking about the necessity for a "long war" for years now.
They seem to be fine with it. So are the defense contractors.
Only the magic Christian spell didn’t work this time (not that it ever did).~Zenrage
As long as you have a group of old men who can rewrite and selectively include/exclude information, repackage the rest as cautionary tales mingled with "truthiness-isms" that sound right, you can dupe future generations. Oh, and denounce your opposition as obstructionists to paradise/godliness/righteousness. Be sure to establish a noise machine to catapult the propaganda endlessly.
76 Friedmans
We all ready turn this over to the UN.
Sad but true.
Ohhhh -- 6 months tops! $50 Billion total! Mission Accomplished! -- C'mon America! -- Lets invade Iran! The more the merrier and "safer" right?....
lol -- bushies.
hanshiro @ 21:
Just like the NYT, right?
"I can’t imagine anyone involved–the Americans, NATO, the Brits or most of all, the Afghanis–being okay with this lasting that long."
Wrong. The Afghans LOVE us and NATO. Without them, the Taliban would be in power and they *hate* the Talib's. They will likely want us there for as long as needed...and I see that as a good thing, actually. They need help. They are the country we should have poured 300k troops into and built up as a democracy. Again, they *love* America there.
Iraq? Now that's a whole different story....
"I can’t imagine anyone involved–the Americans, NATO, the Brits or most of all, the Afghanis–being okay with this lasting that long."
I can. Halliburton, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Raytheon, and on and on.
16 Zenrage Says:
Patricia,
Yes, it’s called the bible.
Only the magic Christian spell didn’t work this time (not that it ever did).
___________________________________________________________________
Here thou goest:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jWFSHwJnWo&mode=related&search=
"Counter-narcotics, it’s 30 years"
How long did it take the Taliban to stop the opium trade again?? Less then 10 years? And it only took the US and the Brits less then 5 to bring it back up to record levels. If the US and the Brits are the ones we're counting on to end the opium production I think you'd better plan on about 300+ years.
Kiva @ 26:
Yeah, look at the booming opium trade that we've fostered there. The Northern Alliance was made up of the armies of Afghanistan's drug lords. They were in danger of being wiped out by the Taliban.
Now with US support, Afghanistan is the world's #1 producer of heroin.
Heroin production has broken all previous records.
Bush has done great things for Afghanistan.
somebody should check with Russia on the advisability all this Being that their adventure in Afghanistan most likely cost them the Soviet Union Unbeknownst to Reagan lovers
Bah! If we kill the heroin trade in Afghanistan then we'll lose our only allies. We have to support the drug lords and help them boost heroin exports if we want to build those pipelines.
The Taliban wanted cash for the pipelines. That cost corporations money. But the export protection for heroin trade comes the US military, and the taxpayer covers that.
just think about this. a child born today will have a child that will serve in afganistan.
78% of Americans including the top corporate leaders of the country agree that fighting global poverty is a successful way of fighting of terrorism [Borgen Project]. Now we've involved ourselves in an issue that will be predicted to last 38 years? I am confused as to how we get into such sticky situations with other countries.
redcat @ 33:
Lovely, maybe the father can hand down his boots and uniform so we can save some money.
"Afghan victory 'could take 38 years'"
If we already know the Afghans are going to win, why are we bothering?
michael @ 14:
I dunno... do fries come with that?
Blue Buddha @ 37:
Freedom fries.
The Soviets couldn't conquer Afghanistan.
The British couldn't conquer Afghanistan.
The Persians couldn't conquer Afghanistan.
Even Alexander the Great couldn't conquer Afghanistan!
What makes us think we can?
They call it counter insurgency... before 2003 it was called Colonialism.
it's the coporations that are running ALL the wars. you don't make money from peace.
they just say fuck the same people, they are just disposable fodder for our profits.
38 years? So we'll be out in the 39th year? I wonder why they can be so specific about 38. Wouldn't it be just as easy to say 35-40 years?
Meh, the life expectancy in Afghanistan is 40 years. In 38 years everyone will be used to us being there.
as the Soviet experience taught us, we need to fight them in Afghanistan or we'll be fighting them in West Oakland (where they'll finally get their al-Qaeda asses kicked).
Why are we in Afghanistan again? The Taliban? They were bestest buddies of the US gov't before 911 and received numerous loans (handouts). Now all of a sudden they were evil? Afghanistan has nothing. No business, no manufacturing, no resources, etc. The only thing they have is drugs. Our gov't pretends it wants to wipe out drugs, but it is now in higher demand/supply than before American democracy was outsourced to Afghanistan. It's a joke. Our gov't, NATO, and the UN have absolutely no intention of helping Afghans. We are not there to oust a regime and help. We are there, just like Iraq, to control, except Americans call it imperialism to justify the sound of it. When the Soviets did it, it was the evil spread of communism. I'd like to apologize to all those specified by our gov't as evil "insurgents", "Taliban", and "AlQaeda". I am sorry my gov't seems to think it has to kill and conquer in it's global conquest to get oil, oil, oil and cash, cash, cash for it's rich cronies. You are the unfortunate innocents caught in the middle. What comes around goes around, and perhaps in the not too distant future your ancestors will have the immense joy of ousting the American Regime, and installing "democracy" to the USA.
The only reason there is heroin in Afghanistan is because of the British East India Company. Only right they clean up their mess.
appnzllr @ 42:
Come on, don't be naive.
The public is more likely to accept 38 years than the indeterminant and vague "35-40 years'.
Afghanistan is between a rich oil and gas region with political instability and modern weaponry and US controlled ports.
The Taliban wanted a fee for allowing the pipeline to run through Afghanistan. Ken Lay didn't want to pay it. so we used the other business option. We sent in the US Military to kill the people asking for residuals on the pipeline.
Now, its the US taxpayer covering the costs. I imagine that Ken Lay was pretty happy with the whole idea of slaughtering people for profit, up until his untimely retirement.
Are we really supposed to fear this evil administration? People who, with the most powerful military ever created at their disposal...and it will take them 38 years to defeat a 9th rate power?
The ONLY reason this administration of criminals ever appeared to be powerful is that nobody stood up to them. WE THE PEOPLE could have them out of the White House (and other places) and behind bars where they belong within a week.
If we'd only act. And we will, when these stupid crooks reach the "tipping point." And they will.
Terrible @ 29:
Um,
they didn't really stop it, their warehouses was bursting with opium, so they put a lid on production, so keep the prices up.
38 years for 1 man, in one cave. If Eisenhower said that in 1944, I think FDR would've fired him.
Are we allowed to take a position this war?
Publicus @ 49:
Counter-insurgencies usually take decades.
38 years sounds like a stretch though.
"Bloggers of course to some extent have a business of trying to to make comments more extreme"
Somebody should tip this douchebag that the "bloggers" are the People of the United States of America who are fed up with his type of bullshit.
It's ludicrous for the Guardian to say " bleak assessment ", referring to british troops " having to stay in Afghanistan, when they chose to invade for purposes of grabbing areas to build an OIL PIPELINE, from the Caspian through Afghanistan, which has been worked on for the last 20 years.
Karzai signed an oil pipeline deal with pakistan, just WEEKS after being put in office by bush and he was also a top oil consultant for UNOCAL, the same Co. that invited the Taliban to Texas, put them up, wined and dined them sent several to Oil school and only ran into problems when the Taliban were executing women in public. The other problem was the Taliban wanted an open pipeline, to tap into since it was passing through their territory anyway.
This crap is so sleazy, the majority of the 9-11 commission is involved in the oil business, one including Richard Ben Veniste, who's law firm sued BRIDAS, the company that came close to actually getting a pipeline built there.
Do you actually think the Daughter of a former CIA director would represent the Taliban if it were about sunflower seeds, through her PR firm in the 90's.
GOOGLE - CASPIAN/ Taliban, there's tons of info the main stream propagandist wont touch.
If the US and Britain stay that long we will suffer the same fate as the Soviets..regardless if they like us now or not.
What, maybe two weeks ago I made an analogy between Iraq and Northern Ireland on this very site and the followed-ups seemed about three-to-one negative. Quite the contrary, I think the immensity of the catastrophe of the Bush legacy is hardly felt yet. After all, it's all on credit, we're still "shopping for democracy" and they haven't put anyone you _know_ in a concentration camp yet, eh?
Think of Afghanistan and Iraq more of as enabling our ability to conduct live fire exercises. As most US bases are surrounded by suburbia, where else can we be engaged and tested. We have to stay as long as we have a military with weapons and contractors in need of sales.
You mean American citizens, the international community, and the Afghani people might not approve, huh? Well, no doubt our government will be sure to get their okay first. I mean, they’d hate to just impose their will on all of us.
redratio1 @ 52:
After we're done with our stretches, can we exert ourselves?
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