Playing games with Iraq numbers
By Steve Benen Wednesday Sep 05, 2007 7:03pmHoping desperately to maintain the status quo, the Bush administration insists that Iraq is less violent now than it was before the “surge” policy went into effect. Forget political progress, reconciliation, and the agreed-upon benchmarks, they say; reduced violence proves how effective the strategy is.
The WaPo’s Karen DeYoung wrote a must-read on the subject today, explaining that the administration is playing games with the numbers and cherry-picking statistics in a deceptive way.
Specifically, Gen. Petraeus is expected to say there’s been a 75% drop in sectarian attacks, a 56% drop in overall attacks, and a 17% drop in civilian casualties. All of this, it turns out, is suspect, and in some instances, contradictory.
The intelligence community has its own problems with military calculations. Intelligence analysts computing aggregate levels of violence against civilians for the NIE puzzled over how the military designated attacks as combat, sectarian or criminal, according to one senior intelligence official in Washington. “If a bullet went through the back of the head, it’s sectarian,” the official said. “If it went through the front, it’s criminal.” (emphasis added)
As Ilan Goldenberg summarized, "So to recap. The violence numbers do not include: 1) Sunni on Sunni violence. 2) Shi'a on Shi'a violence 3) Car bombs 4) Getting shot in the front of the head."
Something to keep in mind when Petraeus reports on Iraqi "progress" next week.
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8 US troops killed today
I expect to hear the following statistic from
Patraeusthe White House:...and violence was down a whopping 100% against left-handed lesbian albino midget Eskimos in Iraq (only one had been killed before the surge).
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.
This kind of crap will be the death of this country.
These twirps are so full of shit ....yet some people still believe them.....what's it gonna take for these dimwits to see the reality of what's really goin on.
Blue Buddha @ 2:
Not to mention the one eyed lesbian hermaphrodites!!! Violence amongst them in Iraq is down 3000%!!!!!!!!!!!!
F^%$ the surge, wheres the missing billions of dollars that was stolen by Bushco inc in Iraq.
ferrofluid @ 6:
Same place the missing weapons/guns and ammo are. Given to "terrist" groups to give that ever menacing insurgent 20 second terror alert clippings on all the media. Terror Alert bright Pink!! Be afeared!
off topic...just saw Osama Bin Forgotten on KO....He Looks Great!...no not really....he looks like he should be dead soon.When he dies whats Boosh gonna do.....?no more boogieman.
“If a bullet went through the back of the head, it’s sectarian,” the official said. “If it went through the front, it’s criminal.”
That's funny because John F. Kennedy and Pat Tillman both were shot in the front of the head, and no one did a damn worth of criminal investigation that I've seen. Hypocracy and lies run so rampant in our government.
Bush and his corrupt party will face another historic thumpin' in the next election.
If they thought the '06 vote was a disaster, the '08 massacre will look like a Baghdad market on a really, really deadly day.
I used to teach a class in research design and statistical analysis. I have never really been a political junkie, so when I used to see some of the statistics posted by various government agencies I used to write long detailed letters explaining what they did wrong and how to correct the problem. I was sure it was all a mistake because the errors were so obvious. In most cases the problem was with the design not the statistics derived from the design.
Of course, errors in design are harder to spot than mathematical errors so that where they do their dirty work. They create variables that make no sense at all. In this case they will be making comparisons base statistics derived from different criteria. Congress should be asking Petraeus if the statistics they are comparing were gathered under the same criteria. When did they stop counting car bombings. When did they decide that someone shot in the front of the head was not an execution. What about the folks who get shot elsewhere. They complain a lot about methodology, but the fact is they don't seem to know anything about methodology.
The only thing that's "successful" about the surge is that the threat of a coup and support for the Sunnis pressured Maliki and parliament into getting their arse into gear to sign the Hydrocarbon Law. This was always was, and always will be, about oil. That's true for the Repubs, and it's true for the Dems (remember Hillary threatening Maliki, anyone? They're all the same.) If the American govt withdraws, it will only be once they have secured the interests of their true constituents... no, not you silly, Big Oil. May they all drown in their stolen oil.
Orangutan. @ 9:
Excellent point.
Have we finally arrived in the Twilight Zone?
Somebody is lying their asses off. The Dept. of Defense has on its website a link that challenges the BS from the White House. Not sure if it's a govt. site though. That's the 1st link. The 2nd link is packed full of info and is where the 1st link is located(near the bottom) as well as few others.
Iraq Body Count
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/numbers/baghdad-surge/
Iraq Coalition Causality Count
http://icasualties.org/oif/default.aspx
When's the Fucktard gonna say "Bring 'em on" again?
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/09/06/bush-on-iraq-were-kickin...
Surely you-all didn't believe General Betray-us was going to tell the truth? What serving general does? Oh, yea, there was that guy who said we needed way more troops up front! And what happened to him? The other generals sure got THAT message and became self-serving careerist shills for the Decider. This was a done-deal from the start. The democratic leadership is SO afraid of not "supporting the troops" that they will bow down to the Bully Clown and won't do anything. Senator Bathroom and an Iranian War scare are all placed to flim-flam us into looking anywhere but behind the curtain. Bush will simply do all that can be done to run out the clock and hand-off the war to whoever wins the next election. Since all of the Repukes are jokes, it will probably be the hapless Democrats who will get stuck with the defeat. JEB as prez-dent after next? We live in Bedlam.
The Big Lie.. also doesn't count the bombing in the north that killed 500, too large of event to be sectarian. The truth has never meant anything to these pricks. Loud bullhorn, constant yelling, push until something stops you. Most bullys are cowards, bush is no different.
The problem is his bullying is working, because MSM and congress are a conglomeration of pussies. So the bully rules the playground until someone stands up to him.
Hope is still alive:
I hope that one day I will be visiting the future presidential library of EX-President George W. Bush... and will have the opportunity to shake his hand... and tell him to his face what a LYING SACK OF SHIT I think he is.
What is a KIA Number?
KIA = Killed In Action
If a soldier is not killed instantly whilst on the battlefield he does not get in this number.
If a soldier receives first aid then dies, he does not get in this number
If a soldier is blown up and dies on a plane to Germany he does not get in this number
So what are the real KIA numbers please!. -- tens of thousands!
- JJ
Cowboy Bob in Austin @ 18:
Duh-bya in a liberry? That'll be the day...
Still, it's nice to hope!
And shootings in the balls is listed as 'sex-tarian violence."
Sectarian violence is down because of the following reasons the Bush Administration will not admit
1) Ethnic cleansing in Iraqi towns has succeded. Over 1 million Iraqis have been killed since we invaded the country and created a vacuum which caused the ethic uprisings.
2) Iraqi refugess are fleeing Iraq by the thousands. Over 1 million Iraqis have fled the country and 50,000 are leaving each month.
The truth is, the population is thinning and the sectarian lines have been drawn. Essentially the ethnic cleaning, which involved kidnappings, bombings and assasinations in several parts of the country has worked. Our troops that were either in the way or interferring were killed.
So now that the country has pretty much divided the violence has gone down.
Granted, US troops are able to quell uprisings here and there and to put out brush fires but underneath their combat boots the country went through an ethnic civil war and the borders have been drawn.
Now the US has to deal with outside forces who are going to back either the Sunni, Shia or Kurdish sides.
Any person with half a brain could have seen how this would unfold before the invasion.
Bush and his butt buddy neo-con friends are too stupid to predict it or they knew it and considered it an inconvenience to pursue their own greedy interests.
[...] Playing <b>games</b> with Iraq numbers [...]
OOH! (Claps hands) I love Fuzzy math!
“If a bullet went through the back of the head, it’s sectarian,” the official said. “If it went through the front, it’s criminal.”
Man, what the fuck is this - Catch 22
General Betray Us is teaching a fuzzy math course this fall
Only the conservatives without a conscience will believe this numbers game.
Just like the 28 percenters that still think we are avenging for 9/11 in Iraq. If we stay for 5 more years and spend 4 trillion dollars on Haliburton for non reconstruction. Quell some of the violence and then begin some sort of withdrawal. The violence will continue. The strategy shall change as our military adapts to the current strategy. But the 28 percenters will continue to swallow Bush Adm kool aide that Bush can recreate the Garden of Eden.
Has anyone been able to resolve and bring peace to Israel and Palestine? Just how long has that unrest been going on for unabated? And Iraq will be different somehow?
please
did anyone think they wouldnt try to fudge the numbers??
petraeus is about to become a traitor to his troops and his country
impeach bush and cheney and give petraeus a court martial and send him to gitmo for reeducation
I swear, I'm cock punching the next person who says "cherry-picking"! Carry on.
[Deleted. Off topic]
The only "surge" going on is a propaganda offensive that would make the old soviet and nazi propagandists look like amateurs.
Don't forget mortar attacks. If ya can't catch those who fired it , how can ya tell whether they were the bad guys on not. These don't count either
Looks like Petraeus is intent on doing a Colin Powell. He's about to flush all honor down the shitter and cover himself with a slime that will never wash off. There's still time to do the right thing, but I'm beginning to believe he doesn't have what it takes.
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