Iraq Debate Comes Down To Battle Of Statistics

AP Via Yahoo:

In vertical bars of blue, green, gray and red, a briefing chart prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency says what Gen. David Petraeus won't.

Insurgent attacks against Iraqi civilians, their security forces and U.S. troops remain high, according to the document obtained by The Associated Press. It is a conclusion that the well-regarded Army officer who is the top U.S. commander in Iraq is expected to try to counter when he and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador in Baghdad, testify before Congress on Monday and Tuesday.

More than four years into a conflict initially thought to be a cakewalk, the war has become a battle of statistics, graphs and conflicting assessments of progress in a country of more than 27 million people.

The defense intelligence chart makes the point, with figures from Petraeus' command in Baghdad, the Multinational Force-Iraq. Congressional auditors used the same numbers to conclude that Iraqis are as unsafe now as they were six months ago; the Bush administration and military officials also using those figures say that finding is flawed.

With so much depending on how the statistics are collected and interpreted, policymakers in Washington are confused. Read more...

Tags: Iraq


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34 comments

I disagree with the title.

What it ultimately will come down to, is the credibility of George W. Bush. Not the credibility of Petraeus. And George's has been tanking for over two years now. So, the question is, "how, exactly, will George win over the moderates and independents by painting a rosy picture of Iraq"?

Answer: "he won't"

The presentation of graphs and statistics, along with body counts, is a chimera. This is simply another example of how the U.S.has not learned the basic lesson of Vietnam. No matter how many innocent Iraqis the U.S. manages to needlessly kill, there will be ten to take their place. Power point presentations become meaningless if the U.S. does not recognize that the Iraqis, like the Vietnamese, will continue to fight until their dying breath until the less than benevolent presence of the United States is driven from their homeland. Will any member of Congress have the common sense to point this out to Petraeus and Crocker?

It's simple really... if the neocons stopped their lying and obstruction of the truth, the American people and especially politicians of all stripes would see the fiasco and obliteration of Iraq the same way the rest of the world sees it... for what it is. Corrupt occupation of another country by one pretending to be doing it for all the "right" reasons. Disgusting... and war crimes abound.

za @ 1:

I disagree with the title.

What it ultimately will come down to, is the credibility of George W. Bush. Not the credibility of Petraeus. And George's has been tanking for over two years now. So, the question is, "how, exactly, will George win over the moderates and independents by painting a rosy picture of Iraq"?

Answer: "he won't"

George Bush has no credibility. So if that's what it comes down to, I agree with you... he won't win anyone over except those idiots on his payroll.

If you can't be honest about your mistakes and failures, you can't possibly field the best force in the world.

I don't know if we've simply bought into the 'we've never been defeated, therefore we cannot be defeated' fallacy, or something else. And I find it dismaying that there seems no end to the sycophantic arse-kisses in the military who must know that their stubborn clinging to this skewed reality is getting more of their men killed.

David Betray Us loves to carry water from Lake Pinochet for his Vietnam avoider masters

Juan Cole has the real facts at his site each day, today included. I trust him more than anyone else. He also today has some facts about the conditions in Iraq compared to before the US invaded and destroyed that country.

Iraq is not a country of 27 million people anymore.....

What it comes down to is the ability to push a unified message, even if false, to the masses. We know that the Republicans have it over the Dems in this regard and understand that saying something false over and over again in a coordinated attack gives it the appearance of being true. ("The Surge Is Working"!)

What Iraq "debate"? The spineless Dumbocrats have put up little or no resistance to Busholini's rantings (some things never change).

Last Night HBO had a documentary on named "Alive Day Memories: Home From Iraq".
About The Film
Three-time Emmy® winner James Gandolfini returns to HBO with the documentary special ALIVE DAY MEMORIES: HOME FROM IRAQ. The documentary about wounded soldiers surveys the physical and emotional cost of war through memories of their "alive day," the day they narrowly escaped death in Iraq.

They (HBO) have made it available on line.

http://www.hbo.com/aliveday/thefilm/index.html
If you've got 57 mins, everone should watch it.

Forget the so-called debate over the United States presence in Iraq. They have no intention of leaving. Ever. They went there to steal the oil and that's exactly what they're going to do, even if they have to wipe out the entire population of the country. Electing Democrats will make no difference as Clinton and Obama have made perfectly clear. This systematic genocide will continue no matter who's in the White House.

The problem is that the "debate" should have never come to statistics. When was the last time anyone has brought up the legality of the aggressive war against Iraq? Or the fact that it really wasn't a war in so far as Congress never declared war. Or the fact that the administration lied to the American people about the "intelligence"? Most everyone has gotten caught in the trap of "debating" this occupation within the parameters that the neocons have set. Honestly, I could care less if the surge were "working", it doesn't bring back dead people killed for oil and lies and it doesn't take back the fact that our foreign policy now accepts preemptive (aggressive) war as the status quo on how to deal with countries that have our resources. The debate should have never moved from these fundamental moral and legal problems. If you get away with murder, does that make murder ok? If Bush's little occupation "works", does that make aggressive war and systematic torture and killing ok?

GDliberal @ 11:

Last Night HBO had a documentary on named "Alive Day Memories: Home From Iraq".
About The Film
Three-time Emmy® winner James Gandolfini returns to HBO with the documentary special ALIVE DAY MEMORIES: HOME FROM IRAQ. The documentary about wounded soldiers surveys the physical and emotional cost of war through memories of their "alive day," the day they narrowly escaped death in Iraq.

They (HBO) have made it available on line.

An awesome show. ALL of the Neocon bushit artists should be forced to watch this powerful documentary!!
http://www.hbo.com/aliveday/thefilm/index.html
If you've got 57 mins, everone should watch it.

THIS was my comment:
An awesome show. ALL of the Neocon bushit artists should be forced to watch this powerful documentary!!

Lies! Damned Lies! Statistics - when the actual lives of the troops and the state of the nation are not important enough to be taken into account.

BaScOmBe @ 16:

Lies! Damned Lies! Statistics - when the actual lives of the troops and the state of the nation are not important enough to be taken into account.

What about the actual lives of the Iraqis?

The decider has decided. We are staying and Bush's failures will be left for the next President to fix.

Fools on the Hill @ 18:

The decider has decided. We are staying and Bush's failures will be left for the next President to fix.

The decider has decided. We are staying and Bush's failures will be left for the next President to continue.

If they want to settle the battle of competing statistics they should just provide the raw data without interpretation. What they are doing is creating fallacious operational definitions so they can skew the data by shoving it into artificial categories.

You can't do a statistical analysis without operational definitions, but those operational definitions must make sense. For example, hunger isn't an operational definition because it means different things to different people. An operational definition of hunger would be X number of hours without food.

The military's operational definitions about death equals murder if shot in the front of the head verses execution if shot in the back of the head don't make any sense because they are trying to define the motive for killing when what they are really defining is the method of killing.

The military's methodology is laughable at best. If the military submitted their statistics in the form of a scientific abstract, their report would be pitched in the garbage as worthless. If they just took their raw data to the statistics department at any major university they would get an analysis that had real meaning.

This General needs to help Bush keep this war going. I mean how much golf and reviewing of the troops can a man stand?

navyswan @ 13:

The problem is that the "debate" should have never come to statistics. When was the last time anyone has brought up the legality of the aggressive war against Iraq? Or the fact that it really wasn't a war in so far as Congress never declared war. Or the fact that the administration lied to the American people about the "intelligence"?

Shortly before everyone realized that it was fmecking pointless. The fact is, we can stamp our feet and shout "you lied to us, Mr. Bush!" and "this is an illegal war!" all we want, but nothing will change: as Fools on the Hill (18) said, "the decider has decided."

The problem with zealotry (and that's what this has become: a military invasion led by a zealot) is that the zealot is so convinced that "history will show him as the hero he always was" that any naysayers are brushed aside as inconsequential. The fact that 64% of the nation (as of the latest polls) actively disapproves of his job performance just means that "he alone can see the truth."

Bush believes he has a destiny, and he has dragged us along with him. The Democrats in Congress (the ones who, unlike Bush, face re-election in anywhere from 1 to 5 years) are so worried about keeping their jobs that they are forgetting to do their jobs.

See The Big Picture @ 22:

navyswan @ 13:

The problem is that the "debate" should have never come to statistics. When was the last time anyone has brought up the legality of the aggressive war against Iraq? Or the fact that it really wasn't a war in so far as Congress never declared war. Or the fact that the administration lied to the American people about the "intelligence"?

Shortly before everyone realized that it was fmecking pointless. The fact is, we can stamp our feet and shout "you lied to us, Mr. Bush!" and "this is an illegal war!" all we want, but nothing will change: as Fools on the Hill (18) said, "the decider has decided."

The problem with zealotry (and that's what this has become: a military invasion led by a zealot) is that the zealot is so convinced that "history will show him as the hero he always was" that any naysayers are brushed aside as inconsequential. The fact that 64% of the nation (as of the latest polls) actively disapproves of his job performance just means that "he alone can see the truth."

Bush believes he has a destiny, and he has dragged us along with him. The Democrats in Congress (the ones who, unlike Bush, face re-election in anywhere from 1 to 5 years) are so worried about keeping their jobs that they are forgetting to do their jobs.

I've had a feeling for years that the bush wants his legacy to be the first President to authorize th use of nuclear weapons since WWII.

If he starts WWIII. He will solidify his place in history. His legacy will be debated for hundreds of years. Imagine how such thoughts might excite his vast ego.

.....Lies, damned lies and statistics.. You figure it out.....
That drip drip dripping sound we all hear are the bodies piling up on all sides while these fuckers play around with numbers trying to prop up their bullshit and snow everyone into believing night is day and black is white.................JD

I would love to see a bar fight between a couple of staticians.

All the nasal whining, noses that bleed without being hit, and asthma inhalers.

It's the dismal science YS....Just like palmalive, now we're soking in it..............JD

See The Big Picture @ 22:

navyswan @ 13:

The problem is that the "debate" should have never come to statistics. When was the last time anyone has brought up the legality of the aggressive war against Iraq? Or the fact that it really wasn't a war in so far as Congress never declared war. Or the fact that the administration lied to the American people about the "intelligence"?

Shortly before everyone realized that it was fmecking pointless. The fact is, we can stamp our feet and shout "you lied to us, Mr. Bush!" and "this is an illegal war!" all we want, but nothing will change: as Fools on the Hill (18) said, "the decider has decided."

The problem with zealotry (and that's what this has become: a military invasion led by a zealot) is that the zealot is so convinced that "history will show him as the hero he always was" that any naysayers are brushed aside as inconsequential. The fact that 64% of the nation (as of the latest polls) actively disapproves of his job performance just means that "he alone can see the truth."

Bush believes he has a destiny, and he has dragged us along with him. The Democrats in Congress (the ones who, unlike Bush, face re-election in anywhere from 1 to 5 years) are so worried about keeping their jobs that they are forgetting to do their jobs.

But in your analysis, no matter what we do, it will be pointless. So, bickering over statistics won't change anything either. Why not then stick to some kind of principles and morals and call out the illegal occupation for what it is? 64% of the nation disapproves of his job performance, but lack any kind of compassion or sense of laws or morality. If he did a better job of killing innocents based on lies, that would not change the fact that he waged an illegal war. Our foreign policy of aggressive war is the problem, not the job performance of the people waging it.

How can you say that opposing the war on legal grounds is pointless when it has never been done? Yes, there have been people on the left that have made this point over and over, but there hasn't really been any major democrat or politician that has made this point and done something about it. Would it have been pointless if a large contingency of our politicians had actually made the case that the war was illegal and brought about hearings, etc? That never happened because the "problem" with the war, as far as the main stream is concerned, was never because it was illegal. The mainstream and the democratic position has always been that Bush is incompetent, not that he broke the law. By saying that, they are saying, "we would have done a better job at illegally occupying Iraq", not "we wouldn't break the law and wage an aggressive war because it is reprehensible to do so."

booshco is still trying to escape the fact that this was a war drummed up over non-existant WMD's, so while they save face, some of our soldiers are losing face.

Navyswan @#27-

Very well said. My comments at #2 basically echo what you have written. The illegality of the occupation of a third world country that was never remotely considered to be a threat to anyone in this country is only matched by the immorality of this whole sordid enterprise undertaken by that [alleged] beacon of democracy, the United States of America.

Jack Damage @ 26:

It's the dismal science YS....Just like palmalive, now we're soking in it..............JD

Did Popeye ever palm Olive Oyl?

YS;

Well, lets hope so... otherwise all that fighting with Pluto, or was it Brutus... (that whole thing is kinda like a cartoon version of the two Darrens to me)... seems like a waste of time... Unless there's a hidden message to all that wrestleing they did that requires gaydar to fully understand..... Maybe the question should be, were Popeye and Pluto/Brutus palm olive oyling each other???... Hmmmmm Popeye was a sailor... And you know what they say about being 'in the navy' bro.....heheheheh JD

Nonsense.

Germany subdued France during WWII, are you suggesting that Germany's invasion of France was therefore justified due to the absence of violence?

THE ISSUE is the war itself. Bush, as the decider, decided to interfere in the internal structure and operation of a sovereign nation - started a war and invaded. This war was and is an international crime. Subduing the population by force does not justify the crime.

The question that should be asked is when will the criminals involved be brought to justice.

I don't need any statistics to see that Iraq is broken. Even the "good stuff" they show us indicates the country is in turmoil, nowhere near peace, and the citizens lives are miserable and in peril, and the fighting goes on non-stop. Enough on TV for me to see it must end now.

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