Bad News is Good News for McCain in the Character War
Last week, C&L highlighted the GOP's effort to manufacture a "character gap" in an election match-up between John McCain and Barack Obama. That is, facing Americans' overwhelming disdain for their party's policies and its president, Republicans will invariably try to repackage the race as a contest of character. Now, two new studies from the Pew Research Center and the Project for Excellence in Journalism suggest that even bad news is good news for John McCain when it comes to defining himself and his Democratic opponent.
First, the PEJ analysis showed that both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have enjoyed more positive press coverage than John McCain over the course of the campaign. Evaluating media coverage from January 1st through the March primaries in Ohio and Texas, researchers found that 69% of stories about Barack Obama featured "positive narratives." Seemingly contrary to assertions of bias by her own campaign, Senator Clinton similarly earned 67% positive mentions. (It is worth noting that both candidates saw a drop-off over time, including an Obama decline beginning prior to the Jeremiah Wright imbroglio.) In contrast, McCain rated only 43% positive stories during the same time period.
But the dark cloud of John McCain's press coverage during the Republican primaries contains a big silver lining for his general election race to the center. Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, the myth of the maverick McCain bucking his party and his President seems to be emerging unscathed:
Fully 57% of the narratives studied about him were critical in nature, though a look back through 2007 reveals the storyline about the Republican nominee has steadily improved with time.
For McCain, one master narrative stands out above all in the coverage—that he is not a true or reliable conservative. More than five in 10 of all the assertions studied about McCain conveyed that idea, about six times as many as the number of assertions rebutting it. While this narrative—not conservative enough—might have been a problem for him in the primary race, it is harder to evaluate its implications for the general election. If McCain is seen as a maverick, someone not tied to President Bush, it will likely enhance his standing among independents and moderate swing Democrats.
It's no accident that McCain, a candidate who ran ads during the GOP primaries touting himself as a "True Conservative," is now described by his senior strategist Charlie Black as "slightly right of center."
A second survey from the Pew Research Center also bodes well for John McCain and the kind of campaign the Republican Party will run against Barack Obama. Despite double-digit advantages across Americans' top priority issues, Barack Obama enjoyed only a three point lead (47% to 44%) over John McCain in the Pew survey. While both Obama (51% approval, 42% disapproval) and McCain (48% approval, 45% disapproval) have seen their approval ratings drop among all registered voters, McCain holds a narrow edge among independent voters.
More important for the Republican message machine, McCain's negatives hinge on his political views whereas Obama's are "more personal":
Unlike Obama, however, an overwhelming majority of those who express unfavorable views of McCain cite his political beliefs as the reason they do not like him, rather the kind of person he is. Fully 73% of those with a negative opinion of McCain cite his political beliefs while just 18% cite personal factors.
In contrast, 32% of those asked "what don't you like about him" cited personal factors in rejecting Barack Obama. And those likeability numbers are something the GOP can - and will - work with, just as it did in 2000 and 2004.
As the joint study from the Project for Excellent in Journalism and Harvard's Shorenstein Center concluded, the 2008 election could well turn on personalities and not policies:
In many ways, the coverage of the campaign has been dominated by a series of small storylines or boomlets of coverage that so far have raised unresolved questions but not yet framed an overall storyline - Obama’s friendships and core ideology, the meaning of his promise of change, McCain’s core ideology, his relationship with lobbyists, and a looming battle, largely quiet during the primaries, over the direction of the conduct of the war in Iraq.
So the race to define John McCain is on. The seeming imperviousness of his maverick myth and polls showing Americans view him as more trustworthy suggest McCain has an early edge in the character war. But we have not yet seen the end of McCain's "Lobbotomy," the K street taint looming over and threatening to unravel his campaign. And to be sure, the Democratic Party has yet to fully take up Lindsey Graham's challenge: "Good luck making him George Bush."
Two
i'm sure there are things i'm not thinking of, but i think hillary can run out the clock and obama will STILL just crush this guy like a grape.
As someone who's paid close attention to the media from the birth of this election season, I don't understand where or how they get these numbers.
I guess their definition of "narrative" is pretty subjective. What comes to mind immediately is McCain's blonde lobbyist chick that surfaced for a split second before the media brushed it aside versus Obama's "madrassa" that stayed in the media for weeks. Does that count as one negative narrative for each?
If we're talking total time spent on negative narratives, I think it's a draw between Clinton and Obama. The press in general has stood in line to eat McCain's bbq and sniff his panties, and has brushed any of his indiscretions to the side as soon as they rear their ugly heads. In my column the refusal to spend time on the negative McCain stories equals positive coverage.
Haulin' Oates @ 2:
This:
http://hominidviews.com/?p=1569
then this:
http://hominidviews.com/?p=1568
of course there is this:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May30.html
and this:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May30.html
Of course, polls mean nothing, absolutely nothing all ya gotta do is 'believe!'
Good luck with that and Ol' Barry the Glass-Jawed.
John McCain is everyone, and no one.
I would wager that an update of this study that starts in April would reveal a completely different assessment of Obama's "positive" press coverage. the Wright affair didn't break until mid March. After that it was non-stop Obama bashing.
p.s. I have applied for scholarship to Netroots Nation and would appreciate any support. Please click here to vote at the Democracy For America site.
As the French would say "donnez-moi une fucking break!" McCain has been getting a free ride for the last six months, he never answers the questions put before him. He got a rain-check on the Hagee thing, the Parsley thing, the Falwell thing.
A book comes out that slams his party (McClellan's) and what happens, once again the airwaves are full of some new preacher who is teaching in Obama's old church.
A.Citizen @ 4:
like a grape.
What a big bowl of mashed ponothing. For real, though. Please. Can we abandon what must be the most inaccurate science of all,polling and expert theorizing? They be wrong, so wrong. They infuse the weaker of us Homonus Progressivus, with a feeling of despair so acute that they don't come out of their cocoons to participate in the campaign. They wring their hands and infect others with the belief that their vote doesn't count. Hate that mentality! That's what will get McCain elected. Not the issues - but the status quo.
if everyone would just keep calling him
JOHN "THE BUSH REPUBLICAN" MCCAIN
his handlers would go off their nut trying to part the man from the party...
IT IS THEIR WORST NIGHTMARE (short of finding him in a stall with craig)
HRC and the east coast DLC accurately summed up in 18 words.
Are these polls done via phone? If they are they are most likely only getting in touch with people who have land lines. As I understand it they cannot poll via cell phones. Now, if that is the case, a whole lot of people are not getting polled, especially younger people. Older people tend to still have land lines even if they also have cell phones.
All that said, I believe when the voters have only two candidates in front of them they will pay a lot more attention to each of them. Of course there are those who will never vote for a black man, no matter his background or qualifications. It makes me sad to say that, but unfortunately it is still true.
It seems like everything McCain stands for one day, he's against the next. That may come out with neon lights during the campaign. My only fear is that he may get a lot of sympathy votes.
shantiquax @ 9:
Sorry to burst your bubble, but exit polling is accurate. Polls either one the telephone or on the street can be loaded and twisted to whatever.
Dont confuse the two.
The media is being coerced to continue it's positive spin with anything bush and/or mccain related. This keeps the neocons hopes of re-electing bush...mcbush. This reveals the power of wall street,the military industrial complex and the propaganda behind the iraq war. The fear mongering is becoming more apparent. I believe there are many out there that won't admit the iraq war was not necessary. They won't admit they were wrong...never..they can't face that fact.
pissed off patricia @ 12:
Yes the American People will be sympathetic and happily pay $6 a gallon and 30-50% more for food and necessities in November and 09 for the glory of McCain.
katie @ 3:
The press in general has stood in line to eat McCain's bbq and sniff his panties
wow! you sure know how to paint a picture with words, katie!
of course this is what the GOP will do. and it is analogous to the coming 'cultural' issues that will soon be elevated to the highest of national priorities.
this is what the GOP has to do to be successful. their failure to govern, their failure to lead, their failure with the economy, the war for oil, the war on "terrorism", etc. all must be played down.
and the best way to do that is to make a dishonest, and pointless, comparison of character. of course, framed by those that profit from tabloid journalism. again, like the distracting and insulting 'cultural' war issues (flag burning, gay marriage, etc).
yay america!!
I was going to say...
the media has it's job to do.
we have ours.
ferrofluid (Obama 08) @ 13:
Sorry to burst your bubble, but exit polling is accurate. Polls either one the telephone or on the street can be loaded and twisted to whatever.
Dont confuse the two.
This. The right has tried to down play exit polls ever since Florida. They are accurate and every other nation still gives them deserved weight. Why has the rong tried to discredit exit polls? Because they are our first line of defense in voter fraud, especially at a time when we are starting to lose our paper trails. They have always been highly regarded for their accuracy, that is until Florida. The fact that the were off there, compared to the final outcome is not have been a shot against exit polls legitimacy, but it should have been our first tip off to the massive corruption and the coup that was taking place.
Pushpolls=bad; manipuable
Exitpoll=good; neccesary
I wont worry until its a two-way race. I refuse to believe once the sheep see these two side by side that McCain doesn't get crushed.
A Republican of today's variety running on character is so full of LULZ that it seems like a bad version of Alice in Wonderland. At least TR had character. The fuckers in the GOP today? Bah!
A.Citizen @ 4:
It's bye-bye to metal head (can withstand sniper fire) mchillary.
This is more of the lies the repug msm refuse to admit to. they would blame it on the polls rather than using facts which prove differently. This is all a repug rally (see movie recount) cry from paid actors.
mccain and hill has it easy in the repug msm.
As they have done with scotty's book, they talk about the subjective appearance and not the real issues. Dumbasses!
What gets me are that the 29%ers believe the sky is green.
Go Obama!
Go USA!
Of course, one might say that a positive person should get more positive press than some clueless asshole. 'just sayin'.
A question for: PEJ analysis. If there IS NO great news about mr. mcAncient....how can the media provide positive coverage of "four more years of the same nightmare"?
These researches and polls are so skewered, it seems you can make them say whatever you want them to say, based on the questions asked the circumstances of the moment.
Tell me....how can you say as many good things about a dog turd as you can about a flower? I just don't see relevance to this crap.
Did you folks hear that scientists going to perform DNA tests on a 3500 year old mummy?? Heres the link:
http://tinyurl.com/4wcz5t
How much you wanna bet that, when the test results come back, it will prove that John McCain is the father??
One thing you gotta say for McCain, he's got chin-balls.
ferrofluid (Obama 08) @ 13:
I beg to differ -
Remember how ecstatic the progressive media was as the exit polls were announced in 04? Remember how suicidally devastated they were when Bush got elected anyway? I remember, God knows it was one of the darkest days of my life, up till then. The exit polls were so wrong that independent study groups had a fine time analysing why. And some of the pollsters insisted that voter fraud had nothing to do with the discrepency between the Kerry projections and the Bush outcome. Deja vu all over again.
JEZUZ H CRYMENY! McSame looks like the PHANTOM OF THE OPERA in this picture... For F*s sake, I gotta sleep tonight you know!
shantiquax @ 29:
You don't know your history. '04 was the first time that the exit polls had EVER been off in a presidential election. They had been remarkably within the margin of error for the previos 60 years.
That year, they were only off in swing states, and all in favor of Bush. Statisticians said that was statistically impossible. Not Unlikely, or virtually imposible, IMPOSSIBLE. Yet the mainstream media never made a peep.
Let's stop saying that Johny McFuckingRich isn't far right enough. Nobody in the repig party gives a shit any more if this guy is FAR REICHT enough or bat shit crazy conservative enough. Come November every fundi-can and red necked racist is going to be lined up ready to vote for this corpse on wheels. If Obama can steal 50% of the black repig votes then maybe he gained 50 to 100 votes nationally.
My point is you can't run a negative campaign against this septigenarian. The only way Obama wins in November is we start NOW to mobilize the vote. Start registering NOW! Get state laws passed to prohibit electronic voting machines. Require paper trails and accountability. Take your video cameras to the polling stations and record all day long.
Not ONE repig is going to vote for Obama, so the only way to win this is to completely overwhelm them with numbers. Even then they will probably still try to steal this. Don't lay down like you did in 2000 and 2004. Get ready for a long protracted fight, and I mean fight. At the very least, civil disobediance and the capture of state houses will be the only way to force recounts.
Geraldo @ 28:
LOL
mcsame looks like he's melting -- but good thing he's fit as a fiddle, otherwise i'd be worried ...
Doesn't McCain look like emperor Palpatine in that photo...asking Obama to join the dark side.
What most people who say their objection to Obama is personal really mean is that they personally are racist.
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