Poll shows Obama leading McCain in three key swing states

Great news coming out of my alma mata Quinnipiac today as a new poll shows Obama leading McCain for the first time in the crucial swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Of course polls at this point mean relatively little, but the overall trend is very encouraging, as we see Democrats starting to rally around Barack and Independents moving away from McCain.

Quinnipiac:

With strong support from women, blacks and younger voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the apparent Democratic presidential contender, leads Arizona Sen. John McCain, expected to be the Republican candidate, among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:

* Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
* Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
* Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.

Again, 4+ months out, the usual caveats still apply, but the overall trends and CW-busting observations are wonderful to see, especially in Florida, which for a while seemed out of reach for Obama. As fivethirtyeight's Nate Silver puts it:

If Florida is in play, then John McCain's defense is completely broken; it was the one traditional swing state that always had looked off-limits to Obama. More frustratingly for McCain, he had spent the better part of three days in Florida earlier this month, hoping to raise doubts about Obama among Jewish voters. Although Quinnipiac does not break out the Jewish vote, Obama holds a 61-31 lead in Southeast Florida, where most of the state's Jewish population is concentrated.



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96 comments

McCrusty better get to work!

This is just a sign of things to come. Every state is in play for the Democrats. Obama is putting up states for grabs that have never been there before. It will be a landslide in the fall.

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

barack i don't know if it will work but i like your strategy spread the gop thin and go after mich.,ohio,new mex.,colorado,nevada,virginia........not sure you can get florida...i don't trust polls.....especially florida....pick your vp after mcChange....w.clark or webb

With Gov Crist deciding he's for offshore drilling and joining up with McCain on that, Senator Obama may have a better chance then ever down here in Fla. Floridians thought that Crist would protect the state from the drilling but now that he has turned his back on us, more Floridians may look to Senator Obama for protection of our beaches.

I have a feeling it's going to be a landslide victory for Obama, I can just sense it.

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

He could go on a four-year coke bender and do better than Bush OR McCain. But I know what you are saying. One problem is the mess he has to clean up, how much cooperation he'll get from the Democratic congress (I am ruling out any kind help or maturity from the repugs. I expect them run around gleefully stuffing M80's the toilets for the next 4-8 years, obstructionist fratboy idiots that they are), frankly, how much he can push back against the system and the money that runs it and how involved the bulk of We The People will be after November. Will we go back to sleep? Prolly.

Most here

love Obama. I voted for him in the CT primary.

But question: Will he work to make the U.S. the country you want it to be?

Richard @ 6:

I have a feeling it's going to be a landslide victory for Obama, I can just sense it.

I want to feel that way but the last two presidential elections have left me gun shy.

We need to get the numbers up so they can't steal this election.

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

Education: Obama spports a new school construction program to improve crumbling schools. Supports recruitment of a “new generation” of teachers, improving teacher pay, and improvement in early childhood education. Opposes school vouchers. Has called for a “STEP UP” summer learning program for disadvantaged children through partnerships between community groups and schools. Supports increased funding for Head Start. Opposes reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind law until it undergoes reform. Supports merit pay for “master teachers” but opposes merit pay for teachers based on test outcomes.

“Our schools must prepare students not only to meet the demands of the global economy, but also help students take their place as committed and engaged citizens. It must ensure that all students have a quality education regardless of race, class, or background.” (www.barackobama.com)

Energy/Environmental Issues: Obama pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with a goal of 80 percent by 2050, and make the U.S. a leader in the effort to combat climate change by leading a new international global warming partnership. Supports implementing a cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Pledges to invest $150 billion over the next 10 years to develop and implement “climate-friendly energy supplies, protect our existing manufacturing base and create millions of new jobs.” Pledges to double federal clean energy research spending. Supports efforts to reduce dependence on foreign oil, and to reduce oil consumption by 35 percent by 2030. Would require that 25 percent of electricitycome from renewable sources by 2025. (www.barackobama.com)

Experience: Senator and attorney

Gay Marriage: Supports civil unions. Opposes gay marriage.

Health Care: Obama’s health care platform focuses on a new national health plan that covers the nation’s uninsured. The plan would guarantee eligibility, provide coverage similar to the federal employee health insurance program, offer “affordable” premiums, co-pays and deductibles; and allow enrollees to keep their coverage when they change jobs. He would introduce a requirement for all children to have health insurance and pledges to expand eligibility for Medicaid and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). Businesses that do not provide insurance to their employees would be assessed a fee based on a percentage of their payroll. His plan would allow states to continue developing their own reform plans. He would also make employer health plans eligible for reimbursement of catastrophic costs provided the savings would be used to offset employee premiums. Obama also pledges to support disease prevention programs, promote quality and cost transparency and reform medical malpractice insurance.

Immigration: Obama upports comprehensive immigration reform legislation that combines increased border enforcement with a path to legal citizenship for illegal immigrants already living in the U.S.

The war in Iraq: Obama spoke out against the war in Iraq when he was a state senator in Illinois but was not in Congress when the vote to authorize the use of force was taken. Supports a plan to immediately begin troop withdrawal from Iraq at a pace of one or two brigades a month, to be completed by the end of 2008. Has called for a new constitutional convention in Iraq, to be convened with the United Nations. (www.barackobama.com)

Social Security: Obama opposes privatization of Social Security. Has pledged to take steps to keep Social Security and Medicare solvent. Promises to amend federal bankruptcy laws to keep companies from choosing bankruptcy to avoid private pension obligations. Promises to eliminate the income tax for seniors who earn less than $50,000 a year. (www.barackobama.com)

Stem Cell Research: Obama supports expansion of federally-funded stem cell research, including embryonic stem cell research.

Taxes and Budget issues: Obama supports repeal of tax cuts for upper income earners to pay for health care. Opposes repeal of the estate tax.

VietVet8666 @ 8:

Most here

love Obama. I voted for him in the CT primary.

But question: Will he work to make the U.S. the country you want it to be?

It may not be able to make our country the exact country I would like to see, but he will get closer than it is now. He's not a miracle worker, he's just a smart guy who wants better for us than we have now.

Bonkers @ 7:

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

He could go on a four-year coke bender and do better than Bush OR McCain. But I know what you are saying. One problem is the mess he has to clean up, how much cooperation he'll get from the Democratic congress (I am ruling out any kind help or maturity from the repugs. I expect them run around gleefully stuffing M80's the toilets for the next 4-8 years, obstructionist fratboy idiots that they are), frankly, how much he can push back against the system and the money that runs it and how involved the bulk of We The People will be after November. Will we go back to sleep? Prolly.

Bonkers,

If I were president of my fraternity (which I was), I'd make you my right hand man and give you power to do what you think is right.

VietVet8666 @ 8:

Most here

love Obama. I voted for him in the CT primary.

But question: Will he work to make the U.S. the country you want it to be?

Hey, he could be the best president since they invented the word, but it still behooves us to keep the pressure on. He, or she, works for US!

So will he? I dunno, but I feel more hopeful than I ever have. Ever!

The protect at&t and give bush unlimited spying power act is winning where it counts. In the beltway. Where's Obama in this? MIA.

The way he is financing his campaign is a good first step.
He chose a great bunch of people to run his campaign. Good judgment all around so far.

Suggestion --

Getting what you hope for may not be the best outcome.

VietVet8666 @ 17:

Suggestion --

Getting what you hope for may not be the best outcome.

Are you voting for McCain?

Chrisd @ 15:

The protect at&t and give bush unlimited spying power act is winning where it counts. In the beltway. Where's Obama in this? MIA.

Obama is not a member of the House of Representatives.

pissed off patricia @ 18:

VietVet8666 @ 17:

Suggestion --

Getting what you hope for may not be the best outcome.

Are you voting for McCain?

No. But I keep my options open.

Please keep in mind that a recent Rasmussen poll (6/18/08) put McCain up 47-39 in Florida, however Pollster's composite puts it more around 45-42 (if I remember correctly). Florida is definitely in play, although looking slightly red still (maybe a light pink?). Ohio is more in play, but it looks like Pennsylvania made a gigantic leap into Obama territory.

For eight years we have been getting everything we feared. A president Obama is not going to do that to us. If he's willing to step into the mess he will be facing and try to fix it, I'm willing to support him and help him.

pissed off patricia @ 5:

With Gov Crist deciding he's for offshore drilling and joining up with McCain on that, Senator Obama may have a better chance then ever down here in Fla. Floridians thought that Crist would protect the state from the drilling but now that he has turned his back on us, more Floridians may look to Senator Obama for protection of our beaches.

that's a good point the people of new jersey will not like it either...i people can through this fear fog..my understanding drilling is not the answer

Hi SP. my daughter has her BS from Quinnipiac: She also
graduated from the first class law school. She is now
chief clerk of court & will be 50 Monday. It's a beautiful
little University btw. Well lets hope Obama wins in Nov.
I have a bad feeling about the election. It's the issues
that mean squat that win these things & the American
voter worries more about same sex marriage than the deaths
in Iraq or the economy. I hope I'm wrong.

VietVet8666 @ 13:

Bonkers @ 7:

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

He could go on a four-year coke bender and do better than Bush OR McCain. But I know what you are saying. One problem is the mess he has to clean up, how much cooperation he'll get from the Democratic congress (I am ruling out any kind help or maturity from the repugs. I expect them run around gleefully stuffing M80's the toilets for the next 4-8 years, obstructionist fratboy idiots that they are), frankly, how much he can push back against the system and the money that runs it and how involved the bulk of We The People will be after November. Will we go back to sleep? Prolly.

Bonkers,

If I were president of my fraternity (which I was), I'd make you my right hand man and give you power to do what you think is right.

LOL

Thank you, thank you. I would do my best.

As an aside, my yuk-yuk wasn't meant to condemn all guys who belonged to frats. I know a few swell guys who belonged to them. I think it is like the difference I see between a professional athlete and a dumb jock.

Anybody who believes THESE polls believes obamalamadingdong campigned in "ALL 57 States". have another sip of koolaide and your unity pony will be right out.

pissed off patricia @ 22:

For eight years we have been getting everything we feared. A president Obama is not going to do that to us. If he's willing to step into the mess he will be facing and try to fix it, I'm willing to support him and help him.

POP, Move with your husband to Cochise County, Arizona. The U.S. is crumbling around you. MSM and blog structures want you to think the U.S. is intact. It isn't. Head for the exit.

if there wasn't so many stupid fucking people in this country, obama should win all 50 states.

VietVet8666 @ 27:

pissed off patricia @ 22:

For eight years we have been getting everything we feared. A president Obama is not going to do that to us. If he's willing to step into the mess he will be facing and try to fix it, I'm willing to support him and help him.

POP, Move with your husband to Cochise County, Arizona. The U.S. is crumbling around you. MSM and blog structures want you to think the U.S. is intact. It isn't. Head for the exit.

Since my husband is a marine biologist working primarily with sea turtles, I don't think Ariz would work too well for us. :)

Russell @ 21:

Please keep in mind that a recent Rasmussen poll (6/18/08) put McCain up 47-39 in Florida, however Pollster's composite puts it more around 45-42 (if I remember correctly). Florida is definitely in play, although looking slightly red still (maybe a light pink?). Ohio is more in play, but it looks like Pennsylvania made a gigantic leap into Obama territory.

Might still be close but the country is in a steady decline universally due to the failed policies that McWarmonger supports, people are pissed off throughout the country and that means virtually everywhere is a possible win for Obama. The percentage of people that think things are rosy is pretty tiny these days.

Ruthless People @ 1:

McCrusty better get to work!

Panderlooza begins!

Vic @ 30:

Russell @ 21:

Please keep in mind that a recent Rasmussen poll (6/18/08) put McCain up 47-39 in Florida, however Pollster's composite puts it more around 45-42 (if I remember correctly). Florida is definitely in play, although looking slightly red still (maybe a light pink?). Ohio is more in play, but it looks like Pennsylvania made a gigantic leap into Obama territory.

Might still be close but the country is in a steady decline universally due to the failed policies that McWarmonger supports, people are pissed off throughout the country and that means virtually everywhere is a possible win for Obama. The percentage of people that think things are rosy is pretty tiny these days.

they will mcBlame everything on the dems.the war.the gas prices.the subprime/mortgage crisis.food prices.unemployment.weak dollar.trade defecit...they had no part of it

I really wish these "polls" would not be given so much weight.

These pollsters get paid for their polls. They use such a small amount of people where they can skew the numbers.

The closer the polls are the more they are needed, so if they put out all of these "exciting" polls they will be paid more for them.

In the end, they are seldom right.

God, four months. Somehow in my head it seemed like more than that.

pissed off patricia @ 29:

VietVet8666 @ 27:

pissed off patricia @ 22:

For eight years we have been getting everything we feared. A president Obama is not going to do that to us. If he's willing to step into the mess he will be facing and try to fix it, I'm willing to support him and help him.

POP, Move with your husband to Cochise County, Arizona. The U.S. is crumbling around you. MSM and blog structures want you to think the U.S. is intact. It isn't. Head for the exit.

Since my husband is a marine biologist working primarily with sea turtles, I don't think Ariz would work too well for us. :)

Hey - down here in Maricopa county AZ it used to be the floor of a shallow ocean. Prolly some fossil turtles under my backyard....

karl @ 32:

Vic @ 30:

Russell @ 21:

Please keep in mind that a recent Rasmussen poll (6/18/08) put McCain up 47-39 in Florida, however Pollster's composite puts it more around 45-42 (if I remember correctly). Florida is definitely in play, although looking slightly red still (maybe a light pink?). Ohio is more in play, but it looks like Pennsylvania made a gigantic leap into Obama territory.

Might still be close but the country is in a steady decline universally due to the failed policies that McWarmonger supports, people are pissed off throughout the country and that means virtually everywhere is a possible win for Obama. The percentage of people that think things are rosy is pretty tiny these days.

they will mcBlame everything on the dems.the war.the gas prices.the subprime/mortgage crisis.food prices.unemployment.weak dollar.trade defecit...they had no part of it

____________________________

Damn skippy they will. You better believe it. Fortunately, the American public isn't buying repug propaganda anymore. I mean, pointing your finger and saying "He did it" is so juvenile, and it's all the repugs have left.

There is going to have to be a much bigger spread than that. The refucklicans have all sorts of ways to steal elections and the media will help the
military industrial complex for free to keep the wars going.

Roger from Ohio @ 33:

I really wish these "polls" would not be given so much weight.

These pollsters get paid for their polls. They use such a small amount of people where they can skew the numbers.

The closer the polls are the more they are needed, so if they put out all of these "exciting" polls they will be paid more for them.

In the end, they are seldom right.

Hey - I used to live in Cleveland! I think you're right about the polls. The pollsters are part of the media, and tight races bring in the bucks!

karl @ 32:

Vic @ 30:

Russell @ 21:

Please keep in mind that a recent Rasmussen poll (6/18/08) put McCain up 47-39 in Florida, however Pollster's composite puts it more around 45-42 (if I remember correctly). Florida is definitely in play, although looking slightly red still (maybe a light pink?). Ohio is more in play, but it looks like Pennsylvania made a gigantic leap into Obama territory.

Might still be close but the country is in a steady decline universally due to the failed policies that McWarmonger supports, people are pissed off throughout the country and that means virtually everywhere is a possible win for Obama. The percentage of people that think things are rosy is pretty tiny these days.

they will mcBlame everything on the dems.the war.the gas prices.the subprime/mortgage crisis.food prices.unemployment.weak dollar.trade defecit...they had no part of it

I dunno? Do you really think the vast majority of the country is gonna buy into that crap again? It didn't work in the midterm 2006 elections and my prediction is it wont work this cycle because things are so much worse off than in most peoples lifetimes. Of course anything can happen and those regressive jackasses hate democracy so who knows? Their dirty trick have no limits.

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

Tell the truth.

Vic @ 30:

Russell @ 21:

Please keep in mind that a recent Rasmussen poll (6/18/08) put McCain up 47-39 in Florida, however Pollster's composite puts it more around 45-42 (if I remember correctly). Florida is definitely in play, although looking slightly red still (maybe a light pink?). Ohio is more in play, but it looks like Pennsylvania made a gigantic leap into Obama territory.

Might still be close but the country is in a steady decline universally due to the failed policies that McWarmonger supports, people are pissed off throughout the country and that means virtually everywhere is a possible win for Obama. The percentage of people that think things are rosy is pretty tiny these days.

Yes, but 100% of the military industrial complex loves it now. We are just wallets for them. They own the media, the telecoms, and in many states, the voting machines. If Obama wins, it will truly be a miracle. As the election season progresses, I am going to keep stuffing money to Obama to do whatever he needs to finally stop the Refucklican steam roller!!!!

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

Not be George Fucking Bush. That's a start.

Mickxotic @ 35:

pissed off patricia @ 29:

VietVet8666 @ 27:

pissed off patricia @ 22:

POP, Move with your husband to Cochise County, Arizona. The U.S. is crumbling around you. MSM and blog structures want you to think the U.S. is intact. It isn't. Head for the exit.

Since my husband is a marine biologist working primarily with sea turtles, I don't think Ariz would work too well for us. :)

Hey - down here in Maricopa county AZ it used to be the floor of a shallow ocean. Prolly some fossil turtles under my backyard....

Man, someone screwed up the thread width.
Those fossil sea turtles are kinda difficult when it comes to saving their lives. My husband is not that good.

pissed off patricia @ 5:

With Gov Crist deciding he's for offshore drilling and joining up with McCain on that, Senator Obama may have a better chance then ever down here in Fla. Floridians thought that Crist would protect the state from the drilling but now that he has turned his back on us, more Floridians may look to Senator Obama for protection of our beaches.

Just like McSame sold out to Bible thumping conservatives, it appears Crist has sold out in an attempt to capture the VP position.
What else could have driven Crist to flip-flop so quickly and align himself with McSame?

I believe that Gore was way ahead at one point too. The difference is that the Obama campaign is run much much better than Gore or Kerry. Back in 2000 who would have thunk that Bush could have been elected? I, for one, was very happy that Bush was the candidate. When Bush said that Gore was using fuzzy math in that first debate I was astounded that Gore didn’t come back with “Well dumbshit, it may be fuzzy to you but the first graders in the front row sure understand and because you don’t get it, it is the very reason why you should not be elected to the highest office in the land where critical thinking cannot be fuzzy.” With the inept Gore campaign and the outright thievery of the election I believe the Obama people learned. They are very very smart.

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

Bulldoze K Street and get rid of Pelosi and Hoyboy, for starters...........

Also, there needs to be some type of citizens panel, one from each state, maybe. Something needs to be done to tear down this exclusive club, and assure that we, the people don't get screwed again.

WE NEED A MAJOR PARADIGM SHIFT...........THE OLD WAY IS WORKING ONLY FOR THE RICHEST OF THE RICH. IF NOT, MY PURSE IS CLOSED.

This is fantastic news! But every time I see statistics like this,

No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College.

it makes me wonder when we're going to finally get around to abolishing the archaic Electoral College once and for all. Not piecemeal, but the whole thing in one fell swoop.

It would just be nice if (a) blue voters in red strongholds could actually contribute to the election of their candidate (the reverse would be true too, but Dems outnumber Repubs nationwide); and (b) elections would stop being decided by one state, which the GOP systematically plans for, rigs, and steals.

What happened to all those angry female Clinton supporters, who were so disgusted they were going to vote for McBush?

The Truth Hurts @ 44:

pissed off patricia @ 5:

With Gov Crist deciding he's for offshore drilling and joining up with McCain on that, Senator Obama may have a better chance then ever down here in Fla. Floridians thought that Crist would protect the state from the drilling but now that he has turned his back on us, more Floridians may look to Senator Obama for protection of our beaches.

Just like McSame sold out to Bible thumping conservatives, it appears Crist has sold out in an attempt to capture the VP position.
What else could have driven Crist to flip-flop so quickly and align himself with McSame?

Hey Patricia, is it true that no state wide candidate ever won an election who was FOR offshore drilling. I heard that last night. Is it true to your knowledge?

Sign up for updates from the campaign at www.BarackObama.com

Those poll numbers are extremely optimistic. This is going to be a very tight election. Don't forget, every GOP candidate starts with a solid red block that stretches across the deep South. That's a nice foundation of votes to build on. Redneck states will always vote GOP--no matter who the candidate is. Simply put, those mullet-wearing knuckle-draggers are too damn dumb to vote any other way.

Obama's best chance is to build on his base on both coasts by picking off states in the West and Midwest.

sailor @ 48:

What happened to all those angry female Clinton supporters, who were so disgusted they were going to vote for McBush?

Don't push it sailor. Let it rest for awhile. They will come around but put it on the back burner and let them think about it for awhile. They are already coming around.

redcat @ 28:

if there wasn't so many stupid fucking people in this country, obama should win all 50 states.

We can thank the media industrial complex for that in my opinion. The education system is bears some responsibility as well.

McCain is toast.

sailor @ 48:

What happened to all those angry female Clinton supporters, who were so disgusted they were going to vote for McBush?

They quickly realized that sacrificing control of your own body was a lot to give up for a protest vote.

BrokenArrow @ 46:

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

Bulldoze K Street and get rid of Pelosi and Hoyboy, for starters...........

Also, there needs to be some type of citizens panel, one from each state, maybe. Something needs to be done to tear down this exclusive club, and assure that we, the people don't get screwed again.

WE NEED A MAJOR PARADIGM SHIFT...........THE OLD WAY IS WORKING ONLY FOR THE RICHEST OF THE RICH. IF NOT, MY PURSE IS CLOSED.

If Obama fucks us over it will be the end of the Democratic Party. This is our last chance.

The way I feel right now, with the Dem cave-in re FISA, I'm gonna have a hard time getting motivated to go to the polls. It's kinda comforting knowing that it was mainly the Repugs screwing me. Now I'm subject to a bipartisan fucking. Odin's Crows, am I ever pissed off.

VietVet8666 @ 27:

pissed off patricia @ 22:

For eight years we have been getting everything we feared. A president Obama is not going to do that to us. If he's willing to step into the mess he will be facing and try to fix it, I'm willing to support him and help him.

POP, Move with your husband to Cochise County, Arizona. The U.S. is crumbling around you. MSM and blog structures want you to think the U.S. is intact. It isn't. Head for the exit.

Why move to AZ..........why not leave the country. I think about it everyday, but our extended family can't move with us, and I can't leave them behind.

PoP comment makes a lot of sense, and it's the way to go, IMHO.

McCain seems to think that Florida oil will only cost $20 a barrel.

I was just reading in a local paper here in Tampa that Obama leads McGrampa in Florida two different polls. And, from what I can tell, many, many Floridians DO NOT want off-shore drilling here in Florida.

Captain Obama’s Bitter Half Husein Kangaroo @ 56:

BrokenArrow @ 46:

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

Bulldoze K Street and get rid of Pelosi and Hoyboy, for starters...........

Also, there needs to be some type of citizens panel, one from each state, maybe. Something needs to be done to tear down this exclusive club, and assure that we, the people don't get screwed again.

WE NEED A MAJOR PARADIGM SHIFT...........THE OLD WAY IS WORKING ONLY FOR THE RICHEST OF THE RICH. IF NOT, MY PURSE IS CLOSED.

If Obama fucks us over it will be the end of the Democratic Party. This is our last chance.

Even if Obama finds a way to blow the presidential election, the Democratic Party is going to gain many, many seats in the House and Senate.

Russell @ 21:

Please keep in mind that a recent Rasmussen poll (6/18/08) put McCain up 47-39 in Florida, however Pollster's composite puts it more around 45-42 (if I remember correctly). Florida is definitely in play, although looking slightly red still (maybe a light pink?). Ohio is more in play, but it looks like Pennsylvania made a gigantic leap into Obama territory.

I'll venture to say that the results of the summer tourist season may have an impact on how the people who depend on the tourist trade will vote come November. Obviously gas prices will keep a number of people from driving here this year, but just how many people will come is a question nobody wants to answer. Fuel costs have made flying more expensive and again how many will elect not to fly here because of the higher costs. For those who do come they will find everything more expensive than last year.

Then there is the weather. I suspect a lot of people are wondering what the hurricane season will be like with the controversy over whether or not global warming is causing extreme weather. I suspect one or two families now or soon to be flooded who were planning a Florida vacation won't be coming also.

I've decided that when the rising sea level fills in the moat around the Castillo de San Marco here in St. Augustine it will be time to abandon my location less than a mile inland at 7' elevation, unless other events force me to relocate sooner.

Sort of ironic to think that the oldest city in the US will be among the first to be underwater when the sea level does rise.

Dr. (terrorist fist jab) Matt @ 61:

Captain Obama’s Bitter Half Husein Kangaroo @ 56:

BrokenArrow @ 46:

VietVet8666 @ 3:

Bulldoze K Street and get rid of Pelosi and Hoyboy, for starters...........

Also, there needs to be some type of citizens panel, one from each state, maybe. Something needs to be done to tear down this exclusive club, and assure that we, the people don't get screwed again.

WE NEED A MAJOR PARADIGM SHIFT...........THE OLD WAY IS WORKING ONLY FOR THE RICHEST OF THE RICH. IF NOT, MY PURSE IS CLOSED.

If Obama fucks us over it will be the end of the Democratic Party. This is our last chance.

Even if Obama finds a way to blow the presidential election, the Democratic Party is going to gain many, many seats in the House and Senate.

If Obama fucks up and does not do what we expect him to do it will be over. Polosi has screwed over the Democrats that were hoping for her. I understand why and how but she has not offered any olive branch. Never has she explained why she is not doing what we had hoped for. I think I know but without an explanation who knows for sure. If Obama does not do what we expect I will be the first one to say "Fuck the Democratic Party." If he becomes the norm than I am gone, goodbye, history. Having said that I think he will not let us down.

Well since there is less than a 10 point spread in FL. and OH ... those state can be stolen ... PA is to big a spread ... so they have a chance with the help of Diebold and voter suppression ...

sailor @ 48:

What happened to all those angry female Clinton supporters, who were so disgusted they were going to vote for McBush?

Hanging out with McBush.

I live right outside of Orlando, FL and I see at least 5 Obama stickers on different vehicles every day on my way to and from work. I'm seeing Obama yard signs pop up everywhere. I get beeped at at least once a day by someone who sees the Obama sticker on the back of my truck who is trying to get my attention to give me a thumbs up. It's only freaking June!

The excitement and buzz I'm hearing and seeing is like absolutely nothing else I've ever seen in the run up to any election. Florida is more in play than you think.

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

You put that question in the past tense, as though he has done nothing yet.

Obama HAS chosen not too accept money from lobbyist and political action committees, and he HAS told the DNC to do the same. If moves like this are indicative of things to come, then we're on our way to REAL change, not political pandering and the return of bush.

Lobbyist and PACs are what hold this country back from it's true potential.

GoBama!!!

Remember John Kerry won all three of these states, but was robbed of two by election hijinks. What can we do to make sure the actual winner of the votes receives the electoral votes?

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.
What will he do to make this country better?

Reversing the damage left by herr dubyah.

Enough said.

Obama dropping all federal funding is the sad reality of today's money-driven politics, but there's a sweet side to this. With numbers like these in swing states and Obama's record-breaking donations from regular people, those states will be solidly voting for him in November.

You're finished McCain. Can you say...LANDSLIDE?

And yet El Rushbo deems "Operation Chaos" an overwhelming success? I see panic and pandemonium, alright, but not at the DNC.

So much for that 98.8 accuracy rating, eh, Dittoheads?

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

Good question. The federal debt is so high that there are few options to improve the economy.

Here's what he can do:

- Take back the federal judiciary. Throw out Bush's unratified nominees for federal judgeships. Pick moderates for the Supreme Court to balance the neanderthal appointments of the past 8 years.

- Release science and environmental enforcement from conservative political control. Fire and replace all the evangelicals/nutbars/incompetents/think-tank drones who have been given jobs throughout the federal gov't based on loyalty to the GOP.

- Enforce oversight of federal contracting, military and otherwise. Expose and prosecute all the Bush-era fraud that has been covered up.

- Throw out Bush's changes to the federal records laws, and make this retroactive. Investigate and prosecute whatever crimes are uncovered.

- Clean house at the Justice Department, and restore its role as independent enforcer of federal law.

- Restore progressive taxation, throw out tax breaks to the richest 1%.

- Restore Clinton's budget surpluses. Cut military spending if necessary to achieve this.

- Get rid of the 1872 mining act which gives billions in profits annually to big mining companies who pay nothing - zero - in royalties.

- Restore US multilateral cooperation with NATO and the UN to resolve military/strategic disputes.

- End all contracting of "security" functions to private companies. No more Blackwater, no more private armies outside the authority of the Geneva Conventions.

- National single-payer health insurance for all, with supplemental health coverage for those who want and can afford it.

- A new, depoliticized federal agency to compile and publish all federal statistics, including inflation, money supply and demographic information.

. . . That ought to do for starters.

I think I need to hear Obama tell me that he will seek a remedy to the FISA Bill that his party caved on. If he does that, Ill vote for him twice...(insane, half plastered giggle) the goddam phone company, hee hee hee, a bipartisan triumph at tearing up the Constitution of The United States of America on behalf of the buggerin' phone company...what a bunch of bampots...

Dr. (terrorist fist jab) Matt @ 69:

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.
What will he do to make this country better?

Reversing the damage left by herr dubyah.

Enough said.

how about even stopping the damage that in itself maybe enough

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

Hear those crickets? He'll do exactly like that last 10 presidents........not so much, but hey, at least he isn't a CONservative in sheep's clothing...

The thing is that for anything that Obama does it will take years to reverse what Bush has wrought. If he moves along the correct path I think that people will see. If he caves in to the “right now’ mind set he will have problems. He should not care though. Just do what has to be done.

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

For a start, he will start chasing the criminals out of Washington.

That will be a BIG first step.

If he winds up only doing that it will be a major positive change in this country.

Captain Obama’s Bitter Half Husein Kangaroo @ 49:

The Truth Hurts @ 44:

pissed off patricia @ 5:

With Gov Crist deciding he's for offshore drilling and joining up with McCain on that, Senator Obama may have a better chance then ever down here in Fla. Floridians thought that Crist would protect the state from the drilling but now that he has turned his back on us, more Floridians may look to Senator Obama for protection of our beaches.

Just like McSame sold out to Bible thumping conservatives, it appears Crist has sold out in an attempt to capture the VP position.
What else could have driven Crist to flip-flop so quickly and align himself with McSame?

Hey Patricia, is it true that no state wide candidate ever won an election who was FOR offshore drilling. I heard that last night. Is it true to your knowledge?

I have no idea, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's true. We get testy about our beaches.

Dr. (terrorist fist jab) Matt @ 60:

I was just reading in a local paper here in Tampa that Obama leads McGrampa in Florida two different polls. And, from what I can tell, many, many Floridians DO NOT want off-shore drilling here in Florida.

Yes indeed, and I'm one of them!

Numinous @ 77:

VietVet8666 @ 3:

OK, Obama wins.

What will he do to make this country better?

For a start, he will start chasing the criminals out of Washington.

That will be a BIG first step.

If he winds up only doing that it will be a major positive change in this country.

i'm hoping for some basics like following the constitution for policies,energy policy,fair interaction of the legislative branch with the executive branch.....fair taxation for middle class just that stuff

jesus chreeeist if obama runs every crook out of washington that will only leave dennis kucinich and mike graval left! can we run the government with only two honest men? answer me dam it!

come on dummys speak up!

With the sheer numbers that will turn out for Obama (blacks and young, especially, in record numbers) coupled with Obama's popularity among others, the fact that ANYONE thinks McCain will even be close is amusing.

What will Obama do to make this country better? Just having a human being running the place, alone, will be an improvement of such vastness that it really doesn't matter what else he may do.

bloggers on here have becomea bunch of pricks! pricks !

I wouldn't count on Florida. Really, I wouldn't. Or Ohio. Things have a mysterious way of coming out exactly the opposite you'd expect in those two states.

tyree @ 81:

jesus chreeeist if obama runs every crook out of washington that will only leave dennis kucinich and mike graval left! can we run the government with only two honest men? answer me dam it!

Hey, then you could run for Congress, tyree!

ps- Gravel han't been in working in DC since the mid-70's iirc.

After the death, destruction, unmitigated terror, and wholesale slaughter of the last seven years, how is it possible that John McCain can poll anywhere close to anyone else despite his support for so many Bush policies? The answer? Democracy does not exist in the United States of America. It can't. It isn't possible without a free press. Not a corporate press. But and independent and FREE press. Just watch. This election will be close. It has to be. Inevitably, any election between Crest and Colgate will be. Or to use the South Park metaphor, a Giant Douche and a Turd Sandwich. Funny how all of us get excited about a guy who won't provide universal healthcare in the richest country in the world. Funny how all of us get excited about a guy who wants to leave tens of thousands of US Troops in Iraq to ensure their eventual capitulation to "our" (Read: Oil Companies, etc) interests. Funny how all of us get excited about a guy who fully supports the ongoing terroristic regime in Israel. Funny how we get excited about a guy that can't stop respecting John McCain for his service to our country. How is it service to willfully approve and help to implement the slaughter of MILLIONS of Iraqis? Once you enable the murder of a million people, doesn't any service to your country kind of stop counting?

Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition...

Blech.

Who was it that once said that if you kill someone, you're a murderer, but if you kill some untold number, you're a conquerer?

Blech again.

Don't you GET IT? This is NOT going to be a close election. This is going to be a ROUT.

The foul stench of the once-prevailing Republican strong-hold on American partisan poliics has finally made so many voters SICK TO THEIR STOMACHS that the national reversal into Fiscally-Responsible Liberalism has begun. The NEOCONS have lost their grip on the American psyche, and born-again evangelicals are no longer relevant.

I predicted this the day Hillary relented: Obama's poll numbers will begin a slow climb... across the country... in red states and blue... that will bring an over-whelming CRUSHING defeat in November for McCain AND Republican incumbant candidates in both the House and Senate.

Andy K Jong Il @ 86:

tyree @ 81:

jesus chreeeist if obama runs every crook out of washington that will only leave dennis kucinich and mike graval left! can we run the government with only two honest men? answer me dam it!

Hey, then you could run for Congress, tyree!

ps- Gravel han't been in working in DC since the mid-70's iirc.

hey andy fo

tyree @ 89:

Andy K Jong Il @ 86:

tyree @ 81:

jesus chreeeist if obama runs every crook out of washington that will only leave dennis kucinich and mike graval left! can we run the government with only two honest men? answer me dam it!

Hey, then you could run for Congress, tyree!

ps- Gravel han't been in working in DC since the mid-70's iirc.

hey andy fo

Fo what?

All neocon/ repuglikkkan/evangelical/ faux conservatives MUST be aggressively purged from the military and from all sectors of government. Their crimes MUST be investigated and prosecuted with extreme predjudice. G-d save the USA

Andy K Jong Il @ 90:

tyree @ 89:

Andy K Jong Il @ 86:

tyree @ 81:

Hey, then you could run for Congress, tyree!

ps- Gravel han't been in working in DC since the mid-70's iirc.

hey andy fo

Fo what?

OFF

Don't count out DIEBOLD folks

Carol @ 93:

Don't count out DIEBOLD folks

It isn't so much Diebolds fault, as it is the fault of the manufactures of Red Paint and the brain damage caused by this hue of pigment. As we all know the states that have been coloured red have suffered a population explosion in the demographic of the semi-retarded.

A recent poll has shown that McCain leads Obama 96 % to 4 % amoungst decided semi-retarded voters. Of course the sampling error is 106% when butterfly ballots are used.

This swing state?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voE1Hd2H7uQ

Why would anyone want to Diewimpy?

When Hillary Clinton was blowing away both Barack Obama AND John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the whole idea of "key swing states" was passe and all we heard from the Obama supporters was about how "this time it's different".

Now they're suddenly important "key swing states" again? LOL!

The O-bot hypocrisy is getting so thick you can cut it with a broken public financing campaign promise.

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