Congressional Races: Things Are Looking Up For Democratic Candidates
By Nicole Belle Friday Jul 04, 2008 8:30amThe Cook Political Report (subscription req'd) has looked at 30 congressional races and upgraded them for the Democratic Party. Many of these races are in heavily entrenched Republican areas, but it's clear that the prevailing attitude towards the GOP and the great work these Democratic candidates have been doing (often with help from the netroots) has put a whole bunch more of the House in play:
AL-03 Mike Rogers Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher Solid Republican to Likely Republican
FL-08 Ric Keller Likely Republican to Lean Republican
FL-09 Gus Bilirakis Solid Republican to Likely Republican
FL-18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Solid Republican to Likely Republican
FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart Likely Republican to Lean Republican
ID-01 Bill Sali Solid Republican to Likely Republican
IN-03 Mark Souder Solid Republican to Likely Republican
IA-04 Tom Latham Solid Republican to Likely Republican
KY-02 OPEN (Lewis) Solid Republican to Likely Republican
MN-02 John Kline Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NE-02 Lee Terry Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NV-02 Dean Heller Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NJ-05 Scott Garrett Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NY-13 OPEN (Fossella) Toss Up to Lean Democratic
NY-25 OPEN (Walsh) Toss Up to Lean Democratic
NC-10 Patrick McHenry Solid Republican to Likely Republican
OH-07 OPEN (Hobson) Solid Republican to Likely Republican
PA-03 Phil English Likely Republican to Lean Republican
PA-05 OPEN (Peterson) Solid Republican to Likely Republican
PA-11 Paul Kanjorksi Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic
PA-15 Charlie Dent Solid Republican to Likely Republican
TX-07 John Culberson Solid Republican to Likely Republican
TX-10 Michael McCaul Solid Republican to Likely Republican
VA-05 Virgil Goode Solid Republican to Likely Republican
VA-10 Frank Wolf Solid Republican to Likely Republican
WV-02 Shelley Moore Capito Likely Republican to Lean Republican
WY-AL OPEN (Cubin) Solid Republican to Likely Republican
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GOP Rep: Bush "Should Stay Home" During Republican Convention
xoites defends Constitution @ 143:
Day Day, Xoites.
g'day-day USA
Just One of the Many Reasons Why a State Like Montana Could Go for Obama: "Forest Service move may speed conversion of mountain forestland to residential subdivisions." Good grief.
♠Bangkok Bob♥ @ 3:
g'day, ♠Bangkok Bob♥
Light Light, xoites.
After we win in November, we should concentrate on ousting the "conservative" Democrats in the party.
CoIntelPro for Pronktastic Democratic Party Victory Over SCLM and DIEBOLD! @ 5:
have i missed anything in my absence?
Pentagon Extends Afghan Tours After Insisting It Would Not
CoIntelPro for Pronktastic Democratic Party Victory Over SCLM and DIEBOLD! @ 8:
do I feel a draft?
♠Bangkok Bob♥ @ 7:
big troll sighting in last thread. not worth a visit. the buttplug hit everyone's J4 button. a couple of news revelations, the usual.
six months, 15 days til the post-bush era begins.
♠Bangkok Bob♥ @ 9:
how about mutiny? I am more afraid of the coming domestic deployment.
IRAQ: Military Deaths By Time Period
Period US UK Other* Total Days Avg
Total 4113 176 138 4427 1933 2.29
6 1027 46 14 1087 520 2.09
5 933 32 20 985 412 2.39
4 715 13 18 746 318 2.35
3 580 25 27 632 216 2.93
2 718 27 59 804 424 1.9
1 140 33 0 173 43 4.02
*Fatalities by Nationality
AFGHANISTAN: Coalition Military Fatalities By Year
Year US Other Total
2008 67 57 124
2007 117 115 232
2006 98 93 191
2005 99 31 130
2004 52 6 58
2003 48 9 57
2002 49 20 69
2001 12 0 12
Total 542 331 873
*Fatalities By Country
I can't find a single reason to vote republican.
I'll be really happy when enough people are smart enough to understand why.
♠Bangkok Bob♥ Says:
have i missed anything in my absence?
(sniffle)Well Bob, we thought you might have missed US! (Tear falls)
Day-Day and welcome back.
Reason to vote Democratic in the fall...
Even when in minority, Republicans seem to control every facet of government, so I don't see what the deal here is. After 2 terms as President, the overwhelming odds are that the people will give a Dem a turn now. No surprise there. What would be a surprise is if the change candidate actually fulfills that role. I somehow doubt it.
ConcernedCanuck @ 16:
kucinich was the change candidate.
Sorry you missed a desperately needed change in TX Congressional District 4, where Dr. Glenn Melancon is seeking to turn the oldest member of the House, a tool of the oil companies, Ralph Hall (who changed from Dem to GOP when the majority changed in TX). This is very important not just to our district, but to the entire country, as Hall is a member of the Energy committee and has much too much bad influence.
Condoleezza Rice Says She's `Proud' of Decision to Invade Iraq
By Janine Zacharia
Enlarge Image/Details
July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said she's ``proud'' of the U.S. decision to wage the Iraq war and insisted that the world is not more dangerous than it was when George W. Bush took office.
``We're now beginning to see that perhaps it's not so popular to be a suicide bomber. We're beginning to see that perhaps people are questioning whether Osama Bin Laden ought to really be the face of Islam,'' Rice, 53, said in an interview to be broadcast this weekend on Bloomberg Television's ``Conversations with Judy Woodruff.''
``And I am proud of the decision of this administration to overthrow Saddam Hussein,'' said Rice, who was Bush's national security adviser at the time of the March 2003 invasion. As of yesterday, 4,107 U.S. soldiers died in Iraq and more than 30,000 were wounded. She said the Iraq war has been ``tougher than any of us really dreamed.''
Sometimes we forget that the Congressional and Senate races are as important--perhaps more important--than the presidential campaign. There's only so much a president can do (lawfully), but a solid majority in both houses can accomplish a lot--for either party.
For those of you not acquainted with Scott Garrett R-NJ-05, spend a little time with the google. And while you're there, google the district itself. From affluent Bergen County suburbs the district covers the whole top of the state to the west and the DE River valley, a fine case of gerrymandering! But to win the district, one only need win the populated areas of the east half by a reasonable margin.
Barack is going to do well and his coattails may be strong enough to pull Dennis Shulman over the top. So it's a little confusing why this district is on the list.
Garrett is a pro corporation, anti family nut case. His voting record is a disgrace, having worked hard to reduce tax burdens on corporation while rejected any relief for low income. He homeschools his kids, making sure that they get a good dose of "intelligent design", while telling constituents that complain about the state of schools in the rural parts of the district that they should also homeschool.
The DCCC has tagged this an "emerging race" and Garrett is concerned. This seat is a potential pickup.
BEFORE everyone gets into a celebratory frenzy, let's all remember something salient.
In this day and age, being a member of the Democratic party doesn't mean you're automatically a good guy.
We have many Dems who are little more than Republicans by another name.
I'm not just talking about the Liebermans.
I'm talking about the guys who flipped their vote on telecom immunity for 8000 dollars. Talk about a cheap date.
So let's not all celebrate just yet. We could be replacing Republicans (R) with Republicans (D). And the net effect will simply be that Republican idealogy continues unabated, while the "Democratic controlled congress" gets blamed by everyone for it.
Day day, X! :-)
Let's not forget IL-10. Let's hope that Bush coxucker Mark Kirk gets kicked to the curb by Dan Seals. I am surprised that this wasn't on the list. Seals just barely lost last time and since Kirk hearts Bush even now - in public yet - I'm pretty sure he's done. Couldn't happen to a bigger schmuck.
CoIntelPro for Pronktastic Democratic Party Victory Over SCLM and DIEBOLD! @ 17:
but kucinich although the best candidate was unelectable wasnt he? i mean thats what i saw on here! after that declaration , the same dweebs said anybody could beat mcclain, so why was kucinich so unelectable? because people didnt really want thier country back they wanted to make history, instead they gave us the same old corporate hacks to vote for, people cant see the wart on the tip of thier nose!
Nicole Belle: your "Cook Report" link attempts to go to a Google Mail inbox. not like it matters, given the intended site's subscription-based.
What is the Cook report saying about the race in the Missouri 6th? I have been covering that race for Show Me Progress, and that seat is winnable for us. I have six generations in the rich soil of the northern tier counties, and here is the bottom line: The population isn't dense up there, but the people aren't, either. Sam Graves is a miserable POS and not that popular - he is tied to bu$h, he has backed policies that inflict harm on his constituents - most damaging to him, his stand against SCHIP - and Kay Barnes, former mayor of Kansas City and the shrewd politician behind the "Downtown Miracle" is the first real opponent he has faced since taking the seat in 2000.
Missouri is a real swing state and not reliably red, that is just how we are being portrayed by the Village idiots. The only time in over 100 years that Missouri didn't go to the winner was 1956 - our grandparents preferred Stevenson to Eisenhower. Remind folks of that when they try to dismiss MO as a republican stronghold. Our state government only flipped in 2000 when term limits took effect - and folks are realizing the folly of purging relay and distance runners and replacing them with sprinters. Matt Blunt has been the most effective campaigner for Democratic AG Jay Nixon's run for the mansion that we could have ever dreamed possible. We are going to have a Democratic governor and house come January.
The villagers ought to be reading Missouri bloggers - we are far better versed on what the fuck is going on here than they are. Not only is MO a swing state, the Sixth is a swing district. No party has held that seat for more than ten consecutive sessions of congress since the district came into being in the mid-1850s. It has been represented by four different parties, and on average changes every six years, iirc.
Anyway, there is an ActBlue link in my left sidebar if anyone wants to help a real Democrat unseat a lowbrow republican dumbass who goes with bu$h 100% of the time, and Kay's website is here.
theWalrus @ 6:
Here, here! I 2nd that motion. If they wanna act like repukes, let them join the 21st centuries minority party!
CoIntelPro for Pronktastic Democratic Party Victory Over SCLM and DIEBOLD! @ 13:
Neither can any of the people I know who still call themselves republican's. The best answer I get is one of their Orwellean total bullshit G.O.P. talking points. When I prove they are wrong (takes about 6 seconds), they just stare into space for a moment, delete the logical brain connections taking place, and simply mumble their loyalty to the party of billionaire trust-fund corporate-shitheads, that has destroyed their lives! Stupid is as stupid does I guess.
I keep hoping Wulsin can oust schmidt in OH-02 but she seems to be polling behind by double digits. Why they vote for Schmidt is beyond me.
NoGWBpolicyleftinplace @ 28:
After Nixon, I was sure the Republican image was tarnished for all time, but they managed to sucker the public yet again by putting a big happy face on their faschist policies and convinced the gullible that "we're just like you, just with more money and power", and blindly they followed.
John F A @ 30:
and ther still following , both partys looks like the nightmare is just beggining, follow the cookie crumbs!
swampfox @ 24:
I disagree. I think Kucinich would have problems courting independents and moderates. Without those votes, he would lose the election. His base would not be enough to carry him into the White House, just as it cannot carry Obama in. That's what the general election is about. In my opinion, Obama had the best odds of winning the general election, and inflicting change. If I thought Kucinich could win the general election, I would have voted for him.
Ice @ 32:
guess youll never know if your right! nobody gave kucinich a chance to see what he could do! recon youll have to settle for repig right obama
So what, I'm supposed to see all those House seats "Solid Republican" and think that people are waking up? Hardly, there are districts (like mine) still and forever more will remain "Solid Republican" add IL-18 to the list of entrenched stupidity, it will send a new Republican to the House this year, as the old one is giving it up. No matter he supports Bush just like the last guy did.
I am surprised to see New Mexico's race is missing:
NM Tom Udall (D) vs. Steve Pearce (R) Solid Republican to Solid Democrat !
It is widely acknowledged that Pearce has no chance. (58% Udall vs. 30% Pearce ) Udall is expected to win this seat, being vacated by Pete Domenici's (R) retirement. In the primaries, Pearce (R) beat Heather Wilson (R), who is seen around here as Bu$h puppet.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2...
Here's another Dem seat for ya !
I apologize ^up above^. I re-read the OP and saw that this was about Congressional races, not the Senate. My bad !
Well Nevada right now has the WORST and most STUPID Governor of all times and YES he's Republican. Most want him recalled much like the tomatoes, beef and other foods that are making us sick. :) Most have had a belly full of Gov. Gibbons and YES even many Repub's.
Vegas is Democratic but Carson City/Reno is known for their hardcore Republicans but even they have had enough of Gov. Gibbons. Oh there will be some still hardcore Repub's that no matter how corrupt, no matter has stupid, no matter how incompetent the Repub candidate is they will pull that Repub. lever but I think many are seeing the error of their ways.
As I've always said, VOTE for the competent candidate and dont just stick to that party line.
8 of those states are in the South. MS just had a dem beat a rep in my district. I hope the stereotypes regarding the South would ease up a bit. Most of us are assholes, but we do have common sense. A lot of me and my friends have decided that Obama is the best choice, and we've been raised republican. Bush is a liar and a thief. He has cost the U.S. too many brave soldiers and too much money. I hate the bastard.
most races listed are solid repub to stay likely repub. i don't get it...where exactly is there ground being made up by dems?
joe @ 39:
I agree completely. What are you trying to say? The republicans are entrenched and possibly 3-4 dems from soft areas will make it to congress. It is silly to say dems have the upper hand.
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