Pew Poll Reveals McCain's Summer Dole-drums
By Jon Perr Friday Jul 11, 2008 8:00am
The temptation to compare to John McCain's 2008 campaign and Bob Dole's failed 1996 White House bid is natural, if not always illuminating. After all, both Dole and McCain are septuagenarian war heroes whose great sacrifices for their country are rightly honored and respected across the political spectrum. But despite the clear differences in the political landscape then and now, a new poll from the Pew Research Center suggests that John McCain '08 is in important ways following in the footsteps of Bob Dole '96.
Here's the good, the bad and the ugly of the Pew data for John McCain.
The good news for John McCain is that he's faring better than Bob Dole at the same point in the 1996 campaign. By mid-July 12 years ago, Bob Dole trailed Bill Clinton by 17 points (50% to 33%) in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. In contrast, John McCain trails Barack Obama by only 48% to 40%, and enjoys a clear edge among voters ages 65 and over (44% to 37%).
The latter number reflects Americans' apparent growing comfort with John McCain on the age issue. Whereas 31% of Americans felt then 73 year old Bob Dole was "too old" to be President back in 1996, Pew reported only 21% of respondents say the same about John McCain now, a 5 point drop since February.
But the bright spots largely end there.
The bad news for the McCain camp is that their man is encountering an "enthusiasm gap" potentially as damaging as the one that undermined Dole's '96 bid. In a nutshell, Republicans aren't excited about John McCain. And for all of the hype about disappointed supporters of Hillary Clinton, women in general and her backers in particular are lining up behind Barack Obama:
- Only 49% of Republicans surveyed are satisfied with the candidates, compared to 74% of Democrats. The figure for GOP supporters is even worse than in 1996, when 50% were content with the Clinton-Dole choice.
- Worse still, only14% of McCain backers "strongly support" their man, compared to 28% for Barack Obama. In 1996, Bob Dole claimed a similarly anemic 13%.
- Contrary to the hype of a Democratic rift, Hillary Clinton's supporters back Barack Obama over John McCain by a whopping 69% to 17% margin. Women overall back Obama by a 14-point margin, greater than that enjoyed by either John Kerry or Al Gore.
- Pew reported record high engagement in the 2008 race, with 72% of those polled saying they've given "quite a lot" of thought to the election.
- In a final grim omen for McCain and the GOP, that skyrocketing interest comes at a time when party identification is moving quickly to the Democrat's advantage. While Bob Dole faced only a three-point deficit (35% to 32%) in 1996, John McCain is encountering a 9% handicap as Democrats outnumber Republicans 37% to 28%.
It comes as no surprise that John McCain's "Dole-drums" are especially pronounced when it comes to 2008's most important issue, the economy. McCain, after all, lags Barack Obama by a 20 point spread (51% to 31%) on the economy, and despite his promise to extend the Bush tax cuts, by 11% on taxes (47% to 36%). McCain's performance is even worse than Bob Dole's in July 1996, when those polled said President Bill Clinton could do a better job handling the economy by 11 points.
And to be sure, the McCain and Dole campaigns display eerie similarities when it comes to their stale economic proposals - and Americans' dismal reaction to them. In 1996, Bob Dole's across-the-board 15% tax cut was seen as a budget-busting pander. As Stephen Roach, then chief economist for Morgan Stanley put it:
"There is not one shred of credible evidence on how Dole will pay for his plan. Fully 65% of the revenue breaks are to be financed by nothing more than wishful thinking. This is as vague as it gets."
Fast forward 12 years to John McCain's tax plan and his almost comical promise of a first-term balanced budget through "victory" in Iraq and Afghanistan, unspecified cuts to entitlements programs and trimming earmarks, which is being panned in almost identical language. Even the 300 economists who signed a letter backing John McCain don't believe it.
As for John McCain's gas tax holiday, a gimmick designed to help Americans with an economic downturn he deemed "psychological," even that was cribbed from Bob Dole. As McCain senior adviser Charlie Black put it in April, "I don't think it's different." Of course, in 1996, a gallon of gas cost $1.36; in April it averaged $3.39. Now it tops $4.10.
Of course, just when the Bob Dole parallels couldn't get any worse for John McCain, there are the events of the past week. John McCain topped a calamitous five day stretch, one in which he labeled Social Security "an absolute disgrace" and his chief economy adviser proclaimed America a "nation of whiners" over the "mental recession," by stumbling and bumbling over a question about insurance coverage for contraception and Viagra.
And if nothing else, Bob Dole was comfortable talking about Viagra.
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It's not about Krusty anymore. Thumbs up and down on Obama is the story. McSame could parade in the emperors clothes and it wont change the numbers. Its the Obama Show.
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This data and corresponding positive outlook for our party makes the Democrats recent swing towards rubber-stamping Bush's agenda even more puzzling. Why spit in the face of the ones who stood behind you and who provided you with the votes to regain control of the Congress? By pandering to the right, how are you differentiating yourself from the failed policies of the right and how can you still run on a campaign of change?
They can Skew Poll numbers any way they want, but this short article tells us clearly that under McCain, as with bush, Civil Liberties will be LOST.
From The Denver Post:
It was Sen. John McCain's staff who asked security at the Denver Center for the Performing Arts to remove people holding protest signs at the venue -- not U.S. Secret Service agents, who were not involved in Carol Kreck's ouster from the galleria.
A video of the incident circulating widely on the Internet shows a DCPA security guard saying that he was told by the Secret Service to remove Kreck, who was holding a paper sign that said "McCain = Bush."
But Thursday, after two days of being vilified by bloggers, letter writers and others, the Secret Service emphatically denied involvement.
"Contrary to some recent reporting, the Secret Service had no involvement in Ms. Kreck being removed from the area," said Malcolm D. Wiley Sr., spokesman for the Secret Service. "It was not done at our request or suggestion. Any assertion to the contrary is inaccurate and inconsistent with our established policies and procedures."
Did dole just seem older? He was a strange fish...
McCain, the old admiral, is sinking his own ship, with the help of his crew. Time to shift a bit to Senate and House races to help maintain a majority...even if the majority lacks courage, big time.
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Ha, wow, the first thing that struck me in that picture is "Man alive, McCain looks older than Bob Dole and this is '96!" Not that I think this should be a substantive issue, but in '96 you couldn't go a day without hearing jokes about Dole's age and a general consensus that he was too old to be president. We're not hearing as much of that this time around.
And in the meantime, though we obviously don't agree with Snow and what his part may have been in the whole past years' debacles, he was still a human being with family that cared about him. At the risk of sounding like a "concern troll," while I don't mourn him shouldn't our "bleeding hearts" be what separates us from the wacko right? I wouldn't even have an opinion about this one way or another but it just looks a little tacky, feels a little creepy when people are joyous that a man died of cancer because he was on the other side of the political spectrum.
(hussien)moondancer @ 1:
until the voting machines and media give you the results, no assumption is safe to make. there are still enough stoopid peeple and election manipulators.
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At least Dole was somewhat likeable and energetic. He still is. McCain on the other hand...
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I am indifferent about Snow's death. I can't be sad about someone whose salary we paid so he can lie straight to our face about matters of life and death, but I also can't celebrate given that he left a family behind that had nothing to do with his work.
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"Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few"
Snow, North, Abramoff, Delay, Foley, McC*nt they are the polar opposite of the few.
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To your mama @ 18
I'm not in hell.
Jerry @ 22:
spotted by the talent scout and sent back upstairs to do his lordships work until jan 09 no doubt
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McClellan is 41 and has twenty plus working years left in him, he desperately needed to do a mea culpa or forever languish in some pathetic RW welfare job or go serve fries at Mac.
He obviously wants to work in the future and being merely known as Chimpy's toady wasnt good for the resume and his image.
Dahgrostab’ph-r-i @ 24 et al:
It's true we should not forget the crimes of the dead or the living. But when we engage our opponents with hatred, we become useless and merely spread our aggression around and further pollute the world.
We can be wrathful without hatred. Anger can simply be clear seeing. But the vindictiveness that sometimes gets laid over that seeing clouds the whole arena, and soon we sound just like them.
It is aggression that causes all of the crimes that we oppose.
McNasty can only get the support of 2/3s of the Republican base, and with every utterance he makes he loses percentage points.
Xtians, thinking veterans and their families, POW and MIA families, anybody with children and plans for their chuildren to succeed in a modern world,
all these people should be very wary of McC*nt and his medieval Republican pandering polciys.
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war heroes whose great sacrifices for their country
I'm sorry but that's utter bullshit. Sucking off the public teat their entire lives was no sacrifice to them! America's working people were the ones making the sacrifice so these scum could use that time and the free ride to gain the political influence they now use to screw the very working people who sacrificed.
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Jerry @ 26:
I hear ya'. But I am also tired of watching the repukes respond to fairness and decency with their lies and economic terrorist tactics. Enough is enough! Those SOB's will never stop, until the guillotine is in their driveway!
Exhibit A: Phil Gramms comments this week. His only mistake was saying what Bush/McCain and the rest of the country club republican's think of the American people in public. Fuck them all to hell!!!!
Peter Porker @ 34:
I don't think you're worked up enough. Who are you, Travis Bickle?
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NoGWBpolicyleftinplace @ 35:
Well, I never said we have to respond with fairness and decency. The criminals should be cut down with great skill and never be allowed to stand again. There are few who are willing or able to do that. Look how alone Russ Feingold looks when he tries. He is surrounded by cowering supplicants or drowned out by hateful hell-beings like Peter Porker @34. Effective action is not clouded by wishing harm, and it is not bound by the strictures of polite society. Yet it is always guided by the aspiration to benefit all.
Jerry @ #10 Ever have a large portion of your pension stolen by thugs? After working a dangerous career in firefighting? And having your career cut short by serious injury in the line of duty? I tend to harp on it to much, maybe, but I'm here to tell you that they WILL do it to you if they get the chance. Hate is too mild for these parasites.
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And just to sum up my general feelings right now, ask yourself - as a progressive, do you believe in the death penalty? Do you believe in torture? Now think about someone dying of cancer. I wouldn't mind seeing all of these people in prison. But I am against the death penalty and I am against torture and I believe fighting fire with fire is an obscene part of human nature born of vengeance and aggression which needs to be selected out for the betterment of this world.
JeffS @ 12:
Dole has a bigger temper that McBush.
Peter Porker @ 38:
"Give me liberty or give me death" Sound familiar?.................No?................Well I hope you enjoy your future police state.
Yup, I've heard it, but this isn't 1776. If you think you can overthrow this government by storming the white house with shot guns and hunting rifles, more power to ya. I'll be sure to put flowers on your grave every year.
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breakspear: You know that old saying. The good die young, and the pricks live forever. So sad, but true.
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Both Dole and McCain were heroic soldiers.
Both ran unsuccessfully for the nomination before obtaining it beyond the age of 70.
Both divorced their wives and married attractive, high-profile younger women.
Both were known for compromising with Democrats in the Senate.
Neither man is regarded as an economic genius, nor professes to be.
There's no reason to believe McCain has a better chance than Dole had.
If only we could banish Dubya and his crew to a desert isle where there are no other people to harm...is Bikini Atoll still uninhabited?
Robert Lockwood Mills @ 47:
Dole was running against an incumbent president. McCain is running against someone who is not 100% Caucasian. I don't remember whether or not the media was in love with Dole but I doubt it was as much of a love fest as it is with McCain. I'm sure there are more examples of why McCain has a better chance than Dole did. Definitely not a shoe in, but he hasn't already lost. Never overestimate the idiot masses.
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Why can't Dole be McCain's Viagra adviser?
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Its Obama's election to lose.
Unfortunately, in the great democratic tradition, he is off to a great start! If he keeps on pandering to the 24%, maybe he can lose in a landslide like Dukakis did.
NoGWBpolicyleftinplace @ 43:
Remember what they said about Dukakis's wife back then?
Jerry @ 39:
That is the problem. The democratic party is filled with people who have no ability to successfully take on the idiot Repukes in a debate; and hand them their lunch. I can't even watch political shows on television anymore, because I found myself screaming at the democrats for failing to call bullshit; even when the Brahma is in the middle of taking a verbal dump!
Time after time, I have seen imbecilic Republicans serve up 65 mph fastballs right over the heart of the political plate. Instead of knocking them into the upper deck, the so-called democratic strategists (ROFLMAO) just sit there listening to the chirping of birds.
Hey, speaking of polls, Newsweek just posted their latest poll as Pew posted this one. Remember just three weeks ago when Newsweek had Obama 15 points ahead of McCain? All gone. Obama now leads McCain in that same poll by a statistical tie of three points, 44 to 41.
That's a 12 point drop for Obama in just three weeks! Or a 12 point gain for McCain, however you want to look at it.
My guess is the Sunday shows won't even mention the latest Newsweek poll and only talk about the Pew poll or the Jesse Jackson sideshow. But they sure talked about that 15 point lead for Obama when he had that.
R2K @ 5:
It isn't just that; look at the difference in media ownership and representation since then.
With the media we have now, Dole would either be doing much better, or would just be reported as if he were.
Jerry @ 37:
If you're not as worked up I wonder if you're paying attention.
He may be a bit edgy on this but some times that approach is the onlything that works. In school I was picked on for years, until one day when I grabbed the biggest, meanest bully and beat him bloody and senseless. Guess what, I was never fucked with by those assholes (who prolly grew up to be Repukes) ever again. I'm not advocating actual violence, I'm not saying what I did was right, I've always thought it was a horrible way to gain respect, BUT, when dealing with bullies you have to fight fire with fire, some thing us libs could well learn.
Peter Porker @ 35:
OK, now I'm getting curious. What the hell is everyone trying to talk about? Never seen so many off-topics deletes.
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JeffS @ 13:
No. Bob Dole was/is still Republican slime. Back when the Right was talking about John Kerry's war wounds, he said "Three Purple Hearts and never bled that I know of. I mean, they're all superficial wounds."
After the election Dole wrote of his own first purple heart (he had 2) "It was just a scratch," he later recalled. "I think one of our grenades hit a tree and bounced back."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34024-2004Aug25.html
Dole saying that cigarettes were safer than milk (to appease North Carolina) was gold. Conan O'Brien had a field day with this one
Republican Presidents have presided over 8 out of the 9 recessions in the past fifty years. They create a hole so deep that the next guy spends his administration dealing with it- instead of concentrating on making coherent socio-political progress- while they bitch and whine about all that he's not doing. Then, they claim ineffective government. GOP= Grand Obstructionist Party.
Would the GOP act like such clown shoes with their shitty grade-school tactics if they knew that they actually had some sort of moral high ground?
And I'm not championing the Democrats. There are to blame for a lot- like being spineless in fighting the GOP's shitty tactics. It's all for party, none for country, with both of them.
In my eyes, the Dems aren't progressive enough, but considering what they walk into every time, it could be worse. The only reason I vote Dem is not that they give me someone to vote FOR, but that the Rethugs never fail to provide me with something (or someone) to vote against: Bush 1, BOB DOLE! BOB DOLE! BOB DOLE!, Shrub 43, and Grampy McSame. I'd vote for a more progressive third party if I thought they had a chance to get anywhere, but in this lock-step goose-boogie two-party shit-fest, the only solution is to pull the level while holding one's nose for the least PUKE-INDUCING prospect. And the Rethugs have yet to provide that.
Straight up, this is my prediction for 2008 Election:
Obama is going to win in a landslide of Reagan-esque proportions.
The senate is going to add 5 Democrats and the House another 6, on top of the three already converted in special elections (including Hastert's district).
Obama is going to come within 2% in McCain's home of Arizona.
Only die-hard red-states are going with McCai., Obama will blow out McCain in Virgina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and pick up Florida with a few percentages to spare and might trip up Idaho. Utah and south will probably still go red. Colorado's no longer red. Arizona is turning purple. Washington and Oregon have been blue for a while. New Hampshire has turned a deep purple and will probably go with Obama.
The republicans are going to need some serious shenanigans to change the dynamic at play here. Unless the election is rigged in those key states, then they're dead meat.
i'll point out two things here:
1) notice that "the latter number" who have "growing comfort with john mccain on the age issue" are AGE 65 AND OVER. i would kind of expect that group to be more comfortable with mccain because they are in or within striking distance of his age group themselves.
b) as for americans in general having "growing more comfort with john mccain on the age issue," there's been enough of a pushback of "it's wrong to discriminate against old people" that it's inevitable that, even with him looking like a frightening corpse half the time, leering at his audience with that ricter grin, some people are going to stifle their qualms as being inappropriate discrimination instead of examining the legitimate concern of a very old person's ability to perform a job as complex as that of president .
my uncle is in his mid '70s, retired, is pretty active, including crew member on a large sailing vessel, but he and my aunt have reserved their space in the continuing-care facility and look forward to it being available in another year. my uncle is more lucid than mccain appears to be (mccain can't say whether he thinks birth control pills should be covered by insurance? does he perhaps not know what birth control pills are? what planet does this guy live on?) but he understands that he's on the short downhill at this point and it's time to wrap things up.
the gop has done a bang-up job on boxing the democrats in on "ageism" and mccain's military credentials.
rachel madow was going on and on, the other night on countdown, asking "why isn't obama immediately reacting to all of this stuff?" (the multiple gaffes of last week). i don't know what the obama campaign's plan is, clearly, but to me he's handling this perfectly -- he's letting mccain hang himself. obama is campaigning steadily while mccain repeatedly shoots himself in the foot. after the convention, when the "real" campaign starts, obama's campaign will have a treasure trove of goodies with which to hang mccain by his heels, meanwhile obama comes off smelling like a rose because he didn't spend this period chasing mccain and publicly pointing and laughing. it has the result of obama looking presidential and mccain tied up and weighed down with self-inflicted wounds from which he will be unable to free himself.
Q: Senator McCain, did you see the game last night?
A: It was no game when I was in Vietnam as a POW!
Q: Senator McCain, do you have the time?
A: Time was pure torture when I was being TORTURED!
Q: Senator McCain, how about this weather?
A: Did I mention the weather was rainy when I was a POW?
Senator McCain: A noun, a verb and P.O.W.
McDole is going the same place Bob Dole went.
Nowhere.
Polls don't matter.
Hackable voting machines matter.
Joe H. @ 66:
God, I wish.
My prediction is for a nonstop smear/fear campaign against Obama, aided and abetted by the mainstream media.
McCain, meanwhile, will say so many things so fast (like the Bush Administration constant stream of lies, get it?) that people will give up trying to nail down his positions and will make an emotional choice instead ("I just like the guy, okay? I can't be bothered thinking about what he's going to do after he's President")
Add in a slight drop in gas prices, a threat from Osama (or is it Obama?), polls that can't be trusted (so they say), and people will go to the voting booths not knowing what will happen--and whatever result comes out, they'll be happy it's all over and they can go back to watching DVDs on their plasma TV. Election fraud will be thrust away like an infant pushes away the pureed peas. Who cares who's President, I just want it over.
(That doesn't mean the election wasn't fraudulent, only that the cooking will be complete and thorough.)
Then the big dark Hunter Thompson talked about coming soon.
Since I'm 66, I have a hard time thinking of McCain as too old -- but he's definitely too stupid and evil. Wait...we already have stupid and evil.
OK, he's too old, too.
John McCain's (R-AZ) inevitable and painful loss of the presidential election on November 4, 2008 would mean that the Republicans are very likely to be shut out of the White House for at least the next 24 to 48 years consecutively. The Republicans nationwide are getting worse and worse, year after year, decade after decade, etc., considering the current demographic changes (ethnically and age-wise) in the United States are favoring the Democrats electorally, in which many future national elections will not be decided by the swing voters, but rather by the traditionally left-winged voting blocs, who would outgrow the right-winged and center-winged ones sooner or later.
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