So, what does "fragile" mean?
Earlier, John Amato noted that General David Petraeus is using phrases like "Long struggle", "not irreversible", "still hard", "many clouds on the horizon"…and of course the ever fresh "fragile" progress.
John asks "Is that what success is, fragile?"
Well, yes.
- In the North, Kurdish peshmerga are facing off against the Iraqi Army and the Kurds are stealthily landgrabbing around the disputed city of Kirkuk. Amid accusations of kurdish oppression and ethnic clearing of Arabs in the region, it is "now on the verge of exploding." Any such explosion would lead to American forces choosing between three allies - the Kurds, Iraqi central government and NATO member Turkey, who would not sit idly by while a Kurdish independent state was formed.
- Also in the North, in the Sunni city of Mosul, violence is rising again. The number of attacks had fallen from 130 a week to 30 a week in July. But today they are back up to between 60 and 70 a week. The reason is simple - Maliki's Shiite majority are cracking down on other Sunni dissenters under the guise of hunting Al Qaeda.
- Across Sunni regions, there's a growing storm of discontent among members of the Awakening. The US says there are 100,000 Sons of iraq but the Iraqi government only admits to 50,000 - and they only plan to find new jobs for 20% of those. The rest are to be cut off and told that if they continue to carry weapons they are criminals. You can guess how that's going to go. If even 20% of the Sons of Iraq return to violence, they'll comprise an insurgency equal in size to the highest US estimates of Al Qaeda in Iraq at its zenith.
- In the Shiite South, the Sadrist movement still isn't dead or defeated. But it has been pushed into the arms of Iran, from whom it had previously mainteained a distance despite rightwing claims otherwise. Sadr is streamlining his movement into a massive political arm and a smaller military one, and his people are still observing his self-imposed ceasefire. But that could yet change - there's a move among the Green Zone elite to run provincial elections under the old laws since they can't get a new law passed. This would disenfranchise Sadrists along with all the other "powers that aren't" (like the Awakening movement) and, with no prospect for getting their voices heard peacefully, the pressure to return to violence to get some say will be overwhelming.
So, all this explains why Petraeus is telling the BBC that he will "never declare victory" in Iraq. Because he knows full well that there's every reason to believe that the entire country could blow up again and the "success' of the Surge even in reducing violence will be seen to be entirely temporary.
But all this hasn't stopped John McCain, Joe Lieberman and others pushing a "sense of the Senate" amendment on the fiscal year 2009 Defense Authorization bill. Lieberman introduced the amendment, which he described as "bipartisan" even though it has no Democratic sponsors. In part it reads:
[It is the sense of the Senate to] recognize the success of the troop surge in Iraq and its strategic significance in advancing the vital national interests of the United States in Iraq, the Middle East, and the world, in particular as a strategic victory in a central front of the war on terrorism
Which is simply a lie, according to the military's own assessments, and is purely designed to allow the McCain campaign to trot out the names of all those who vote for this amendment (and who vote against it)for political purposes. If you're a Democat and vote "Yay", you disagree with Obama; if you vote "Nay", you're a defeatist who won't acknowledge "the troops" success in McCain's precious Surge. Either way, McCain has a new attack.That the military itself doesn't really acknowledge that "success" - for good reasons - has nothing to do with McCain's cynical move.
Crossposted from Newshoggers
will more of our soldiers have to die before we catch on to the fact its all a waste of blood and treasure???
The war simply has a PR campaign manager, via Lieberman. This "surge" bs is getting old. Sure the violence is down in some areas, but at what co$t? Basically we are paying some Iraqis not to shoot at our soldiers. It's not about a surge of troops in Iraq, it's about a surge of our money going to Iraqis.
Easily breakable.
Considering we have been at war or been occupying another country for all of about 26 days in our history I would say PEACE is more fragile.
War, occupation, genocide...we've pretty much got them down to a science.
MSM was all over Iraq when they were trying to get us in. now, there is nary a peep.
Abraham Jackemoff @ 4:
They don't want to remind the sheeple who started it.
Just one more Friedman Unit and victory will be ours!
Abraham Jackemoff @ 4:
Not just Iraq - when was the last time you heard anything about Afghanistan?
seriously. what a bunch of children.
Obama should add and amendment that says "since it is truly a success, troop withdrawal will begin immediately."
Jane Hamsher, FireDogLake Blog, Founder debated Mona Charen, National Review, Syndicated Columnist this morning on C-SPAN Washington Journal about women's issues in this Presidential campaign.
rtsp://video1.c-span.org/15days/wj091408.rm
http://c-span.org/Recent/Default.aspx
http://campaignsilo.firedoglake.com/2008/09/14/yes-mona-barack-obama-bab...
ummm...what war? Didn't you know? It's over. Patraeus must be misinformed.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24182882-25717,00.html
I'm so frustrated with this type of fucktard logic from LIEberman, McSame, and the rest of the idiots in the great halls of washington... They've done a crappy job; the surge isn't working; the surge won't work. America occupies Iraq, it's that simple. Why not call a cat a cat? I'm fed up with this doublespeak and bull$hit all to line their pockets and pretend they've done something great. They haven't... plain and simple!
America is a corpse.
Citizens, at best, are maggots feeding off the rotten flesh.
The predators have left town, looking for other prey.
Well, I think it continues to be part of the delay/defuse/misdirect tactics. The points and rationales continue to change as they have from the beginning of this foreign adventure to lock in parts of the Middle East for US exploitation.
Was it the guardian this morning that had news of the secret agreement maliki and the u.s. are working on: permanent presence, permanent bases, immunity for contract soldiers, etc. Please don't think that once all that is in place it is NOT winning for this administration!!!
Great analysis of the future candidates.
Check this link: http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=75019
Well, pretty much everything about the Cheney/ Bush administration and everything they do is or is based on a LIE:
9/11 was a LIE;
OBL is a LIE;
the War on Terror is a LIE;
WMD was a LIE;
the invasion and occupation of Iraq was/is a LIE;
the Iran nuclear threat is a LIE;
the incursion into Georgia started by the Russians is a LIE;
so, it makes sense the LIEberman wants the Senate to give blessing to all of the LIES.
But, what SENSE has this Senate ever had??
"Fra-gil-e".... Must be Italian
Amitola @ 17:
I think you're on the right track.
What a total George Bush, neocon created, GOP enabled clusterfuck.
I expect all you McCain supporters to head to your nearest recruitment station and get your boney butts signed up to really show your support.
EZ @ 16:
No it's not. It's just another stupid "Obama should have picked Clinton" opinion piece. If Obama had picked Clinton, something would be happening right now that would make everyone say, "gee, I wish he had NOT picked Clinton."
The Obama campaign is not doing a good job trashing McCain and Palin. Par for the course for Democrats. It has nothing to do with Obama's VP pick
Say it over and over again:
McCain IS LYING about the occupation of Iraq... and he's LYING about his "VICTORY IS NEAR" STUMP SPEACH.
This is the operationalization of the "Biden" Plan: the tri-partite "Balkanization" of Iraq.
The US had three long-term goals in Iraq. One of them was to ensure that Iraq would not pose any further danger to Israel. This would be guaranteed by partition, whereby each segment of Iraqi significant division in society would be perpetually struggling with one another and thereby to be so exhausted as to have no energy left over to bother Tel Aviv...
Tim @ 18:
Like "fiasco"?
EZ @ 16:
Sorry EZ, this guy is more than a bit off track. Feminists are NOT "flocking" to McCain because of Palin. The vast majority of feminists believe in freedom of choice regardless of their personal feelings about abortion. They know the next president will have an influence on the SCOTUS. They will not support McCain because of Palin.
I am a feminist and a Christian. I am insulted that the McCain campaign is using someone with a uterus and scant experience (zero in foreign relations/policy) simply for votes. I'm equally insulted that he panders to the extreme Christian right for the same.
And World Net Daily is a pretty poor source if you're looking for an unbiased analysis.
Hey, the warloving repubs have only killed a few million innocent people. They still have a way to go before they can claim victory in their mission to wipe out the rest of the Iraqi people. That might take a few years, but who cares.
These war criminals can always retreat to their swanky new Embassy building after a long day of killing. Then, after a nice meal, they can go to the local amusement park to play and have fun.
They have no intention of ever leaving Iraq or Afghanistan. In the meantime, they throw out meaningless words to the unwashed masses to justify their actions. It is truly sickening, disgusting and frightening.
That region has been at war with itself for a long time. Thanks for waking up and smelling the coffee, Patraeus. It's cold and smells of mildew.
I didn't realise patreous was a traitorous democrat?
No matter how stable we make it, all Hell will break loose after we leave. There's simply too many people with scores to settle and the willingness to do so.
The alleged success of the surge is nothing but illusion. It's just a lull, not progress. The sides are just rearming, reorganizing, quietly settling scores. It will blow up again. No way it can't, because, as we set the place up to be a plum for us to exploit forever, we loaded up the system with inherent injustices. Add injustice to a mix that includes groups that hold enduring hatreds for each other, and you have a bomb waiting to blow.
Wasn't one of our excuses for Afghanistan that it was a "failed state"?
Iraq wasn't failing before we got there & we've made it a failed state, by our logic any country on earth can now send its military into Iraq to "establish a civil society" or some other bullshit.
Insurgencies don't end until the insurgents want to end them, not even a "surge" can stop an in "surge" n.c.
"Fragile" means that when everything goes to shit they'll blame the Iraqis for "squandering" the gains of the surge...
Investigative Documentary from Guardian UK, on YouTube:
Baghdad, 5 years on (part 1 of 3): City of walls
Baghdad, 5 years on (part 2 of 3): killing fields
Baghdad 5 years on (part 3 of 3): Iraq's lost generation
Sorry to be off topic but the photo of McCain walking the streets of Baghdad with body armor on just boils my butt. Isn't this the same 'patriot' who voted against supplying our troops with protective armor vests?- causing families, that could afford them, to buy them on ebay and send them to their sons and daughters fighting this insane war?
They shoulda made him walk down Sadaam Boulevard without that vest on!
Military families remember!!! this guy voted time and again against your kids.
Seems to me that the decline in violence will hold as long as we are there, but what gives the bushies the idea that once we leave, and leave we some day must, that the Iraqis will not feel more comfortable with those who are more like them than with the West?
Not Irreversible = Reverseable
Double negatives fool the wingnuts into thinking things are going great.
Here is the Bush Doctrine Palin should have answered:
Create a need. Plunder. Hire your friends to "clean up" the plunder and rebuild. Stall and delay for as long as possible. When a need for a new president comes along, pay the people creating a ruckus and resisting to plunder to stop, claim great things are happening, get elected, stall longer and longer. All the while those around you make tons of money. And never forget to make it appear an honorable, just and christian cause. Repeat as necessary.
McCain/Palin/Bush/Cheney - Putting bandaids on broken arms since 2000!
Bad day on Wall Street tomorrow:
http://online.wsj.com/public/us
Red Headed StepChild @ 9:
good point red....
wouldve forced the neocons to start saying actually not that succesful because
we still have to keep the troops their till countries stable
and point out why it really hasnt been succesful
MountainMan, to be honest, the first time I saw those clips I broke down and cried. I will never forget those images. Two of them, in particular: 1) the dumping ground for the bodies and their cruel grave markers in a landscape of evil and death, and 2) those two orphaned little boys and the sweet, tender way that the Iraqi journalist treated them when he asked them those hard questions. Unforgettable.
We all know Saddam was a bad dude, no question. I thought he had no redeeming qualities as a human being. However, with the benefit of hindsight, he seem to kept a lid on things.
Does having a iron fist and stopping internal mindless slaughter count as a positive?
iraq will bankrupt us
could not have happened to a more deserving country
765 bases around the world and americans t hink they have a right to be in these countries
only total economic decline will stop our imperialism like it did russia
americans wake up like dennis stated and the media made fun of him
the media are very imperialistic as are corps
So, what does “fragile” mean?
It's that Italian place Ralphie's dad got his lady's leg lamp from.
Fragile means that George Bush and General Betray-us can't possibly draw down any troops before next January, no matter what the American people--or for that matter, the Iraqis--want. Fragile means as soon as the occupation forces withdraw, Iraq will explode with all the tensions that first Saddam, and then our troops, held in check. But see, if it happens after January, Bush won't have "lost Iraq." As our despicable media will make all too clear, someone else will have. It has all been going so well, up to that "hasty drawdown."
Amato is only talking about McSame's sex life, after swallowing viagra.
Comments are closed on this entry