Poll: Economists Say Unemployment Will Rise Until 2010
More bad news for those of us who are already out here struggling to stay afloat - and for the people trying to hold onto jobs:
WASHINGTON — Nearly one in 10 U.S. workers will be unemployed before the job market starts to improve, economists in a USA TODAY survey predict. Most expect continued deterioration in the overall economy over the next six months.
The unemployment rate will peak at 9.8%, according to their median forecast, up a full percentage point from the prior survey in January. Twenty-one economists predict the unemployment rate will top out at 10% or higher, according to the survey of 51 economists by USA TODAY April 16-22.
Economists also predict the jobless rate will rise for a longer time. Two-thirds say it won't stop rising until 2010 or later, vs. 51% in January.
The unemployment rate in March was 8.5%, the highest in a quarter-century. The rate of underemployment — adding in part-timers who wanted full-time work or those who had stopped looking for a job — hit a record 15.6%.
"Even after we come out of the recession, I expect the unemployment rate to go higher and stay there for a while," says Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida. Given the severity of the downturn, he says, "Firms are going to proceed with caution when it comes time to staff up."
an idiot is laughing at us all.
NOBODY 2012
bank.
Me?
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
Waiting for free stuff.
http://d.yimg.com/a/p/ap/20090427/capt.0a467c...
Well, at least I now know I have absolutely nothing to look forward to anymore. I'm trying a jobfair tomorrow, but I hold no high expectations.
you can work for yourself? Or "free enterprise" . . . literally.
have for years, but the people that hire me usually work for someone else -- that's where they get the money that they pay me. Things ain't so great in this world of "free enterprise" when all enterprise is shrinking.
I thought you wanted me to join Starfleet.
Star Trek, in theaters May 8
History will prove that Bush was the servile tool of the Oligarchy.
He finally lived up to daddys expectations. Your a Bush time to start acting like one!
Credit card spending? Don't think so.
House construction? Not in all the overbuilt markets.
Manufacturing? Please don't laugh too much.
Pent-up demand? I don't have any. My 2001 Honda CR-V is just fine.
A magic wand? There it is!
probably bought their last new car.
Right on.
other then hyper drive rat race consuming like life itself for example.
without a trip to the mall in a new GM SUV to buy some worthless object on credit?
And to get Wendys for the kids on the way back?
hurry hurry hurry we got a list today kiddies.
To sit in the drive through with fifty other fools in SUVs with the engines running.
Just to consume loads of high sodium calories and die from a heart attack at age 58.
Multiplied by twenty million or more.
Five thousand years of civilization and it comes to this.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
all shot to hell after 500 year of global colonialism.
Some stuff you can't make up!
clean coal ?
economy itself lies comatose in the economic intensive care unit, with IV lines of dollars, euros, yen, and renminbis (chinese) transfusing our hollowed-out carcass.
GM is on a not so slow death march. This will certainly keep that unemployment number high. I recently posted an entry on their latest hit:
www.yellingatthemoon.com
Karma biting them in the ass for all those giant pickups and suv's they churned out during the 90's.
When rappers with all the gold caps on their teeth say, "I'm gonna put a cap in your ass," what are they really saying?
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
about whats being said on the streets?
They can't win for losing. Gas is cheap(er) if there was credit for car loans they could sell some.
Japan is crashing just the same as we are. But they don't have health care dragging them down even further.
There was an auto analyst on Bloomberg (I will have to look up the link) talking about Chrysler merging with Fiat. The analyst downplayed the idea because Fiat makes small low profit models.
They are damned if they do, they are damned if they don't. They cannot win.
I am in Detroit land, we have a depression here. Houses in my neighborhood are selling at 5 times rental value. 15 times is the national post war average which we were below even at the peak, the bubble markets hit 26 times which is when it popped.
Dean Baker was the economist tracking the rent to sales ratio yelling housing bubble years ago.
But not here, 5 times rental is 33 cents on the dollar.
A real dollar, not an inflated one like the coasts or the deserts.
In Michigan the official unemployment number is 12.6% but of course that number cooked is to death, just like all of our official statistics and accounting.
Over 20% is more like it.
If both GM and Chrysler go bankrupt the ripples for suppliers will be catastrophic for the industry.
All of the makers rely on the same host of suppliers, many of whom will go down.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
You men Congressmen will have to sharpen their own pencils?
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
shovel and hardhat
the convenient introduction of a virulent strain of swine flu into the mix could have a positive effect on the economy - in the long run.
No? #;}
"Egotism is the anesthetic that dulls the pain of Stupidity" - Frank Leahy
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stori...
in the post-anthrax era, Rummy bought the chief supplier of tamiflu.
Some stuff you can't make up!
Does that cause hysterical reactions, bad singing and runny mascara?
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
PNAC advocated that “advanced forms of biological warfare that can ‘target’ specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.”
It will certainly distract from the clamor to prosecute the WAR/FISA/Wall Street Criminals.
And if it kills a few million of the under class (read brown people), well…
But then that is the point.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
Big Pharm needs diseases to profit.
the great...
...agri-bankster-pharmo-military-governMental-thinktankian-industrial complex?
audit-prosecute-incarcerate
Kissinger and David Rockefeller have been waiting for a long time to try out their plans for population control.
I have hope that maybe all those old guys (including the current crop of neo-cons) will succumb to their own creations. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.
"Egotism is the anesthetic that dulls the pain of Stupidity" - Frank Leahy
as a weapon against poorer nations.
Some stuff you can't make up!
Obama tested with his response to "his personal Katrina" in hopes that his administration fails containment even at the cost of American lives from "swine flu".
PNAC members laugh all the way to the bank. Get re-elected in 2012.
IIRC, LBJ was advised to do that and nixed the idea.
Spain opened up the dikes to isolate Haarlem in 1573, during the 80 Years' War. The Prince of Orange returned the favor on an even larger scale in 1574, keeping the Spanish troops from overrunning the country.
The Brits targeted German hydroelectric dams in WWII. Flooded the areas arounfd the dams to cut Nazi energy sources.
Just thought it fair to point out that, well, it's an old tactic.
Don't try to confuse the issue with half-truths and gorilla dust.
if they want to cull the herd.
Some stuff you can't make up!
people on this planet in 1918 and now there is 6.9 Billion I can understand their concern with all this pitchfork talk going around.
saying that they will continue the export of american jobs unabated.
Some stuff you can't make up!
"other side"
4 months and counting here. This isn't reassuring at all.
WaPo's Stephen Stromberg Seems Unclear On The Concept Of Geithner's Ties To Wall Street
leave it to murdock to have his minions lie about this mess.
Some stuff you can't make up!
are way higher than the "official" numbers. Nobody is hiring anywhere, and everyone is laying off.
GM today announced they are cutting their dealerships in Canada and the US basically in half. Plus cutting their workforce basically in half. Now where oh where are all those shovel ready jobs? My government made the exact same borrow and spend promises. Where are the jobs? My daughter has been now unemployed since January. Even Timmies (coffee) and McDs are not hiring. When those places are not offering their sh*tty jobs, you KNOW the economy is screwed.
I'm officially back to work full time/part time. Forced to take a day off per week for entire year, if not more. There is absolutely no work. How is Wall Street rebounding? How can a companies stocks go up if they are producing less?
Or fudge the numbers whatever one prefers.
Cooking the books, an American refined specialty. The rest of the world is doing it too, even the Chinese but they are no match for us, yet.
Here is Jonathan Weil of Bloomberg News after Wells Fargo said they had a good quarter.
His take:
Gimmick #1 - Cookie Jar Reserves - he doesn't mention it specifically but it was an enormous bonanza. Paulson's and then Obama's windfall tax scam for the banks. $140 billion is tax giveaways, here from WaPo from November. The 'Stimilus' bill let it ride, that is let them keep it even though it was illegal.
Gimmick #2 - Cooked Capital - in other words cook the books
Gimmick #3 - Otherworldly Assets - this is the best one. This is the magic of American Scam accounting, the largest item on your balance sheet in assets is labeled 'OTHER'. Don't you dare ask what 'other' is. You will be crucified.
I learned this first hand in trying to chase down accounting fraud in an organization.
There is sucker born every minute, all of the banks did it, presto chango, their stocks go up.
The DUMB ASSES bid up the stocks, PUMP and DUMP.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
Wall Street usually benefits from unemployment (or layoffs specifically). It cuts the bottom line on expenses and therefore the stockholders benefit. Short term gain with long term harm. But the shareholders (at least the significant ones) only care about making money.
The people of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage." J.K. Galbraith
Husband is a truck driver and it's rough out there. We've had more bad weeks than good ones. This news is very frightening. I still have several months of school left.
I just met someone I've known for awhile yesterday who is out of work, my work slowed down since last year, I manage properties; I am getting about one call a month from a tenant who has been laid or fired and none have found other employment, some have been on the unemployment line for months, some have already moved out of state. All my kids are employed, but pay checks are slow and low.
One of my nephews just got laid off from a big insurance company in the midwest.
The people of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage." J.K. Galbraith
it is time to start punishing the outsourcers
bring the tech and support jobs home
bring home manufacturing
if tax incentives are neccessary to do so...so be it
For example Gerald Celente who has an accurate track record of predictions thinks it will be
Gerald Celente Predicts Economic Armageddon by 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2qDW34Fr64
Goodnight, Frau Blücher
Well,
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Where's my Obama job?
I'm shovel-ready!
http://iguessineedajob.wordpress.com/
Because factories are being built by the thousands all across America at this very moment and will open in six to twelve months to bring millions of living-wage jobs back to America?
Um-hum.
My inner sci-fi geek has recently become afraid that our corporate overlords have become annoyed with the willfulness of the population and has decided to deliberately crash civilization. The richest will still enjoy 21st century technology while the rest of us will live like extras in the Safety Dance video.
Think how easy it will be to control a population when you have that kind of technology differential. Soon, our masters would lock themselves away in protective areas and only come out when they need us for their more perverse pleasures...
Morlocks and Eloi...
I've got news for " US today " the unemployed very likely number in the teens now . There are millions who are not counted ,among them the self employed who cannot file for unemployment or benefits , several of my friends are in this boat . I got laid off months ago , first time I've been unemployed in thirty some years , luckily had some money saved but it's about gone now ,I was able to get unemployment compensation , is peanuts but sure better than nothing . At this time I would like to thank the greedy bastards who caused this mess , thank you very F'n much , I appreciate it , may your sorry asses end up in hell .
The current unemployment numbers are pretty staggering, but there are definitely positives that we can carry with us during a recession, including learning how to live more frugally, to enjoy things in life that are less material than in the past like our friends and families, and there have been fewer shark attacks since the recession began.
At TheCanned.com, we are trying to help the unemployed stay well informed of unemployment opportunities while maintaining a positive outlook on our current situations. If you are interested, check out Mike's blog post on the lighter side of unemployment.
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