governor's race

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Rachel Maddow Breaks Down the Nov. 2009 Election Results

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Rachel breaks through some of the spin on the election results from last night. Unlike most of the pundits in the “mainstream” media who have been doing their best to paint what happened in New Jersey and Virginia as some sort of shift by the electorate back to the Republican Party, Rachel does a very nice job keeping the results in perspective. As Rachel also notes, the Tea Baggers are gearing up for more conservative challengers in 2010 and for some more Astroturf protests on Capitol Hill, undeterred by the loss in NY-23.

MADDOW: But we begin tonight with the end of election 2009 and the very exciting beginning of election 2010 -- which, of course, starts with the breathless spinning of last night's results.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. HALEY BARBOUR ®, MISSISSIPPI: There's no question that these elections propel Republicans into 2010.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We won one in California, we won the big one in New York 23, where the Obama agenda was at play were in the two congressional races, both of which were won by Democrats.

REP. ERIC CANTOR ®, VIRGINIA: Taking away from this, you know, we look to '010. People have clearly made a choice in our state. They have said no to the one-way street of the economic policies of the Obama administration and the Pelosi Congress.

MICHAEL STEELE, RNC CHAIRMAN: Assume the Heisman position. Yes, baby.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I told you!

STEELE: There you go. That's my moment.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MADDOW: Yes, baby.

Spin aside, the political map in this country did change last night. Before last night, here was the partisan breakdown of governor seats across the country: 22 Republican governors and 28 Democrats.

After last night, this is what it looks like. Yes, I know, stunning, right? Republicans picked up Virginia and New Jersey. So, we're now at 24 Republicans and 26 Democrats.

In terms of congressional races, last night California's 10th district stayed blue, but it got a little blue-ier as moderate Democrat Ellen Tauscher was replaced by progressive Democrat John Garamendi.

The congressional race that got all of the attention last night was, of course, in the northeast. It was New York's 23rd congressional district.

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Listen, I plead guilty to having raised money for Governor George W. Bush because I thought he was the best person to be President of the United States. And I did it in a completely appropriate fashion and enthusiastically for the President. And there's no mystery to the fact that I was appointed to this job because, in part, I had a relationship with the President of the United States.

Anybody who receives a political appointment -- I am a political appointee -- there's going to be some measure of politics involved with that appointment.

Maybe it's just me, but I think this is exactly the kind of attitude that voters pretty decisively said they were done with. But good on GOP candidate Chris Christie for being so honest and upfront about what was expected of him as a Bushie. It's especially telling given that Christie talked to Rove about running while still US Attorney, a violation of the Hatch Act and that he gave no bid contracts to Ashcroft and a former US Attorney who had opted not to prosecute his brother.

It's been a fairly nasty campaign in New Jersey, with the added bonus of an Independent candidate, siphoning off some expected Democratic voters. Even so, incumbent Democratic candidate Jon Corzine is up in the polls:

New Jersey Governor, polled by The New York Times, 10/9/09-10/14/09, Likely Voters, MoE +/- 4-5%

Jon Corzine (D) 40
Chris Christie (R) 37
Chris Daggett (I) 14

After a week in which Republican challenger Chris Christie has watched poll after poll showing a dwindling lead in the gubernatorial race in the Garden State, this poll is the first to show a Corzine lead of greater than a point.

What's more, among registered voters, the polls lead really expands:

New Jersey Governor, polled by The New York Times, 10/9/09-10/14/09, Registered Voters, MoE +/- 3%

Jon Corzine (D) 40
Chris Christie (R) 30
Chris Daggett (I) 13

That would seem to suggest that the pool of persuadable voters, who are not yet quite sold on voting, is even more anti-Christie than the corps of likely voters identified by the New York Times.