Co-author Neil Howe discussing his book, The Fourth Turning in 1997

You know the phrase, "everything old is new again"? Well, after you read The Fourth Turning, you'll realize how true that is. It's impossible to concisely breakdown this mapping of generations, eras, and dynamics, but it makes for fascinating reading. And it's hard to argue with what they've written either. They predicted (in the early 90s, mind you) a major catastrophic event that would occur near the turn of the century and result in 20 years of upheaval and unrest. And folks, it's quite clear we're in that monstrously difficult time of the Fourth Turning. What the future outcome will be depends on how much effort we put into turning it towards positive, progressive change.

As far as our immediate future, it looks like the Villagers are still playing the same games. Why else would you invite NAACP's Ben Jealous and a tea party organizer on Face the Nation? Steny Hoyer and Mitch McConnell on State of the Union? Or David Vitter on Fox News Sunday? And don't get me started on Chris Matthews topic of whether Sarah Palin is strong 2012 candidate. Argh. In one of his last stints as anchor, Jake Tapper has VP Joe Biden on for the full hour.

ABC's "This Week" - Vice President Joe Biden.

CBS' "Face the Nation" - Gov. Bill Richardson, D-N.M.; former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz.; Benjamin Jealous, president of the NAACP; David Webb, a tea party organizer.

NBC's "Meet the Press" - Sens. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Robert Menendez, D-N.J; Reps. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, and Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.

NBC's "The Chris Matthews Show" - Panel: Joe Klein, Katty Kay, Trish Regan and Clarence Page. Topics: Is the Frozen Recovery Setting Up a GOP Tidal Wave In November? Why Sarah Palin Looks Like a Strong 2012 Candidate

CNN's "State of the Union" - Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.; House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md.; New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu.

CNN's "Fareezd Zakaria GPS" - It may be the most dangerous place on Earth. And now it's exporting it's terror. Al Shabab - a Somali affiliate of al Qaeda - has claimed responsibility for the bombing of World Cup viewers in Uganda. What kind of evil can we expect from this failed state next? And what can the U.S. do to stop it?

"Fox News Sunday" - Reps. James Clyburn, D-S.C., and Mike Pence, R-Ind.; Sen. David Vitter, R-La.

So, what's catching your eye this morning?

Greg Sargent finds some interesting poll results on reconciliation.

With the spin war shifting to a battle over the meaning and implications of “reconciliation,” there will be more and more argument over what polls indicate about the public’s attitude toward the tactic.

Here’s some more fodder for this argument: A new batch of polls by the nonpartisan Research 2000 indicates that in key states, majorities are okay with the use of reconciliation — if the question is worded in a certain way.

The polls — sent over by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, DFA and Credo, which sponsored them — ask the question this way:

If the Senate passes a health care reform bill that you consider to be beneficial to your family, would you object to the Senate’s use of “reconciliation” rules to pass that bill with a majority vote, or not?

In Nevada, 55% wouldn’t object; in Illinois, 67% wouldn’t object; in Washington state, 65% wouldn’t object; in Missouri, 58% wouldn’t object; in Virginia, 60% wouldn’t object; in Iowa, 66% wouldn’t object; and in North Dakota, 53% wouldn’t object.

The key here, obviously, is that the question casts the legislation as “beneficial to your family,” which of course makes it more likely that people will be okay with using reconciliation to pass it.

The PCCC is doing a great job getting this polling done. David Axlerod whacked the Republicans for the whining on reconciliation too.

"The American people ... all they want is an up or down vote. They want to move on, have the vote, let's finish the debate. The American people say let the vote be held, let the majority rule and let's move on," Axelrod said.

"Let's move forward," he repeated several times.

So the pressure we brought to bear on Harry Reid's office over the weekend did have some effect. The bill does have a public option, despite mutterings from unnamed sources that the mythic and coveted 60 votes would be a whole lot easier without the public option. But we're not out of the woods yet, not by a long shot.

Now we get to see the Republicans really ramp up the scare tactics--telling the gullible and easily frightened that this is just one step behind the evil Soviet Empire that St. Ronnie slayed, with its government-run health care, all evidence to the contrary. Up until this point, Obama has kept the Senate dealings at arm's length, a political calculus that made some sense, looking at what happened to Clinton's attempt to get health care passed. But it's going to take some seriously strong political leadership now to make it untenable for any member of the Senate to vote against health care reform. As Mike Lux says, "Game On":

We don't yet know whether we will get the best version of the public option in the House bill, and the Senate version is not as strong as progressives have been pushing for. But strengthening the form of the public option can be negotiated over in conference committee, once we get there.

For now, we can thank Harry Reid (HCAN has a page here) and Nancy Pelosi for their gutsy leadership, and fight like hungry dogs to win the floor fight and deliver on this hope. In the coming weeks we will have an all-hands-on-deck, all out public war with the insurance industry over whether we finally pass comprehensive health care reform or once again fall short at the bitter end after coming so far.

Here's where things are as we head into the floor fight:

1. White House staffers confirmed for me this afternoon that they are backing Harry Reid's decision "100 percent." Now that's not to say they aren't a little nervous about it. I suspect that there are still some feelings by some people working in that building that progressives should have given up and rolled over, and let them cut a deal with Olympia Snowe on her trigger-written-never-to-trigger. That would have been easier than sweating what will undoubtedly be a very tough battle to get all 60 Democrats to go along with the rest of the party. But us irritating progressive folk got in the way of doing that, and now Obama knows it's time to stand and deliver. I believe my friends at the White House when they say they will do an all-out fight for this bill. They know that starting down this path, and not being able to pull it off, would be a huge embarrassment and destroy all the momentum we've built by making it this far. They are all-in, and know how much is at stake. Rahm Emanuel and Jim Messina are famous for twisting arms and doing everything in their power to get the votes that are needed, and now is their time to deliver.

That's where you come in. Progressive Change has a petition for you to sign to ask President Obama to stand firm and fight:

"Every day, insurance companies deny care and let people die. Getting one Republican senator's vote is not worth delaying reform -- too many real lives are at stake. We need you to fight and state clearly that anything less than a strong public option is not change we can believe in."

Go. Sign. Make phone calls. Let your voice be heard.

Sen. "I need 60 votes to do anything" Reid has lost the confidence of enough of us over his weak leadership that Progressive Change has decided to run ads letting Harry know that he better show some spine, or be prepared to be voted out. From the email going out to PCCC's membership:

Senate Majority Leader Reid is brokering a health care bill this week. But he seems ready to cave to a few corporate Democrats who want to kill a public health insurance option. We can't let that happen.

Our ad features one of Harry Reid's constituents, Nevada nurse Lee Slaughter. She has seen insurance companies cut off care to patients in need -- and says that in 2010, she will vote on only one issue: "I'm watching to see if Harry Reid is strong and effective enough as a leader to pass a public option into law."

We know that Sen. Reid is concerned about his election next year. Polls show him trailing Republicans, and he's already running campaign ads. Our ad will remind him that for many voters back home, the public option is a make-or-break issue. Voters want Reid to fight for the public option and win -- not cave.

Keith Olbermann reports that Reid is "pushing back against progressives" and "setting expectations low." That's unacceptable. The public overwhelmingly wants the public option. Democrats control the government, with a huge 60-seat Senate majority.

This week is critical. We need Harry Reid to be a strong and effective leader right now. It has never been more important.

If you can, please help PCCC raise the funds to put this ad on the air.

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America has a new ad campaign aimed at moving Sen. Chuck Grassley off the dime and get him to support healthcare reform. If you can, donate here:

Meet Kevin from Iowa. Kevin voted for Reagan...and Nixon...and George W. Bush...and Republican Senator Chuck Grassley. Kevin supports the public health insurance option. And in our new TV ad -- called "Main Street Bipartisanship" -- Kevin calls out Chuck Grassley for being out-of-touch with voters back home. It's powerful.

Real health care reform is in danger right now because some Democratic senators like Montana's Max Baucus crave "bipartisanship." But in DC, "bipartisanship" doesn't mean policies that Republican and Democratic voters back home support. It means "whatever watered-down reform insurance companies will let Republican senators vote for."

Chuck Grassley, the main Senate Republican negotiator, has taken over $2.9 million from health and insurance interests that oppose reform. He's also said he won't support a public option because it would beat private insurance in the marketplace! So why are some Democrats still negotiating with Grassley and letting him water down reform -- instead of going on offense? One word: "bipartisanship."

We're redefining "bipartisanship" to mean what mainstream voters want. Thanks for being a bold progressive.

-- Stephanie Taylor, PCCC co-founder

P.S. According to a national Quinnipiac poll in August, 40% of Republicans and 64% of independents support the public option. In Iowa, the latest Des Moines Register poll showed 36% of Republicans and 56% of independents. For context, 36% of Senate Republicans would be 14 votes -- huge "bipartisanship."

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(h/t Heather.)

I, for one, am thrilled that Dr. Dean is outside the White House, agitating for real healthcare reform. He's much more effective out here than on the inside, being back-stabbed by Rahm:

Howard Dean has emerged as President Barack Obama’s chief antagonist from the left on healthcare reform, raising questions over whether Obama made a mistake by snubbing Dean for a position in his administration.

Dean’s strong advocacy for creating a broad government-run health insurance program, known as the public option, has become a headache for Obama while at the same time giving liberals a powerful spokesman with national credibility.

Dean, who once declared himself a representative of the “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party,” has been traveling the nation this summer offering his own views on Obama’s healthcare proposal. His uncompromising stance is reminiscent of his 2004 presidential campaign that took many Democrats by surprise, and has begun to symbolize a rift between the president and those activists who played a major role in electing him.

Oh, yeah. Yoo hoo, over here! Remember us?

“Howard Dean has been the bully pulpit for the grass roots, expressing what the majority of Americans across the country are feeling but using his profile to make it newsworthy,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC), a liberal activist group that supports the public option.

“It might have been a blessing in disguise that Howard Dean was not brought into the admin because it has allowed him to be bully pulpit for the overwhelming majority of American people who support the public option.”

Soon after Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said in a television interview that the public option is “not the essential element” of healthcare reform, Dean took a strong opposing stance.

“You can't really do health reform without it," Dean said of the public option in a television interview Monday, calling a major government role “the entirety of healthcare reform.” His comment spearheaded a week of liberal criticism of the administration’s mixed messages on healthcare reform. (Obama insisted on Thursday that his position on the public option has not changed and described it as “a good idea” but “not the only aspect.”)

His potential to torpedo the administration’s signature domestic proposal is somewhat ironic given Obama’s efforts to enlist potential adversaries in his administration rather than face their wrath.

Dean was once considered a candidate for secretary of Health and Human Services. Obama passed him over while appointing former rivals and potential adversaries to Cabinet posts. He named his primary rival Hillary Rodham Clinton as secretary of State and asked Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), a longtime critic of Democratic fiscal policy, to serve as secretary of Commerce.

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It made for a pretty long video -- even edited down -- but Bill Clinton's speech last night was not only pretty long but very compelling. His subject was the progressive movement and how it is moving forward with real momentum now -- something, he explained, that really is a product of the reality that America is changing dramatically.

As we become more and more multicultural, he observed, the nation naturally will become more communitarian in how it approaches problems and will increasingly as a result adopt real progressive solutions, while discarding the old fake divisions -- particularly the racial ones -- that have plagued us since our beginnnings. And he offered some thoughts on not only the necessity of keeping that momentum but how we do it.

At one point he was challenged by an audience member who shouted out in protest about Clinton's adoption of the "don't ask don't tell" policy for the military, and Clinton answered sharply and compellingly. It was a reminder of just how strong Clinton can be when dealing with critics.

I'd hoped edit it down to a normal-length video but just couldn't. But the message is well worth the length.

There are a lot of ideas floating around about what to do with health care. President Obama's remarks aren't helping either.

There's an article in the NY Daily News that says this:

Democratic insiders say they are weighing several options to save health care reform, and one actually may be bold enough to revive a depressed, turned-off Democratic base: use the obscure reconciliation loophole to pass a public option.

“Let’s do a public option, or let’s go back and do a single-payer plan,” a frustrated senior Democrat told the Mouth. “You can have people say, ‘Look, if we’re going to do reconciliation, let’s get more, not get less.’”

“If you’re going to use reconciliation, then use it hard,” the Democrat said, adding that it’s a serious option.

We look at some of the other ideas in the paper today, but that’s the one progressives want.

For instance, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee immediately began sending around a petition last night advising Democrats not to take the wrong lesson from Massachusetts, and to use reconciliation.

“The loss of Ted Kennedy’s seat — due to a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats and Independents — sends a clear message to Congress. The Senate health care bill is not the change we were promised in 2008, and it must be improved. The Senate must use ‘reconciliation’ to pass a better bill with a strong public option.”

PCCC’s Adam Green said it got 10,000 signatures in the first hour.

I was talking to Howie Klein last night and we agreed. What about expanding Medicare and medicaid?

Ezra has the same thoughts:

There is another option.

Democrats could scrap the legislation and start over in the reconciliation process. But not to re-create the whole bill. If you go that route, you admit the whole thing seemed too opaque and complex and compromised. You also admit the limitations of the reconciliation process. So you make it real simple: Medicare buy-in between 50 and 65. Medicaid expands up to 200 percent of poverty with the federal government funding the whole of the expansion. Revenue comes from a surtax on the wealthy.

And that's it. No cost controls. No delivery-system reforms. Nothing that makes the bill long or complex or unfamiliar. Medicare buy-in had more than 51 votes as recently as a month ago. The Medicaid change is simply a larger version of what's already passed both chambers. This bill would be shorter than a Danielle Steel novel. It could take effect before the 2012 election. If health-care reform that preserves the private market is too complex and requires too many dirty deals with the existing industries, then cut both out. But get it done. Democrats have a couple of different options for passing health-care reform this year. But not passing health-care reform should not be seen as one of them.

So the Democrats lost one seat. Big deal. They had 58 seats for a long time anyway. Just don't panic and move forward and be decisive.

The Villagers don't understand that Americans want a progressive health care bill. here's some evidence.

Digby caught a weird exchange between Tweety and Howard Dean.

Somehow, I don't think Matthews or any other villager was convinced by Dean's argument. They just don't think that way. Therefore, electing a Republican will never result in the political establishment and the media understanding that it was because the Democrat wasn't liberal enough. Best not to get too fine with this stuff and just send them a message they can understand.

Yesterday Labor leaders sent Harry Reid for a National Exchange in health-care reform and Reid says they will move HCR forward

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