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Ten Banks Will Be Allowed to Repay TARP Funds

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Don't kid yourself that this means these banks are healthy - far from it. It means they want to go back to their old carefree, criminal ways:

The Treasury Department cleared the way for 10 big banks on Tuesday to start repaying billions of dollars in taxpayer aid, a crucial step in easing the government’s grip after an unprecedented series of interventions.

The banks were deemed strong enough to leave the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, after months of lobbying and strong performances on recent stress tests. The banks are expected to return about $68.3 billion to the Treasury Department, more than double the administration’s initial estimate of about $25 billion in funds to be returned this year. The timetable is also earlier than government officials originally intended.

Although the Treasury did not identify the banks, people briefed on the situation said they include American Express, Bank of New York Mellon, the BB&T Corporation, Capital One Financial, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, the State Street Corporation and US Bancorp. All passed the stress test and applied to return their TARP funds. Another bank, Morgan Stanley, which needed to raise $1.8 billion after the stress test, was also said to have received permission, as was Northern Trust, a large custodial bank that did not undergo the stress test.

The $68.3 billion represents about a quarter of the TARP money given to banks. So far, 22 small community banks have been allowed to return $1.9 billion in government money.

Within the next few days, the big banks will be able to wire the money back to the Treasury Department. Still, they will not fully get out from under the government’s thumb until they rid themselves of warrants giving taxpayers a share of the potential upside on their investments.

Analysts say warrants for the 10 big banks could be worth as much as $4.6 billion. Treasury officials have not disclosed how they plan to value and sell them.



Sources: Big Banks Petition to Repay TARP Funds

So it's not just Goldman Sachs, as first reported. Well, that makes sense. Because summer's coming up and you know how much it still costs to have the right place in the Hamptons:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley and other banks have applied to repay billions of dollars they borrowed under the U.S. government's Troubled Asset Relief Program, sources familiar with the situation said on Monday.

U.S. banks are scrambling to repay TARP money as soon as possible, in an effort to signal their strength to the market and to avoid the tighter regulation that comes with government funds, particularly limitations on compensation.

Banks began gearing up to repay government funds soon after the U.S. government announced the results of stress tests on May 7.

[...] Wayne Abernathy, an executive at the American Bankers Association and a former Treasury official, told Reuters earlier on Monday that he expected the Treasury would act soon to let large banks repay TARP.

"I would think we're talking a matter of weeks, and probably just a few weeks, because I think Treasury wants the money, or at least some of it," he said.

The amount of money the government could get back could be substantial. Morgan Stanley and Goldman borrowed $10 billion under TARP in October, while JPMorgan took $25 billion. American Express received $3.4 billion in January.



Krugman on Stress Test Optimism: Not So Fast

Krugman suggests we shouldn't be all that happy just yet over the results of the stress tests:

Can the economy recover even with weak banks? Maybe. Banks won’t be expanding credit any time soon, but government-backed lenders have stepped in to fill the gap. The Federal Reserve has expanded its credit by $1.2 trillion over the past year; Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have become the principal sources of mortgage finance. So maybe we can let the economy fix the banks instead of the other way around.

But there are many things that could go wrong.

It’s not at all clear that credit from the Fed, Fannie and Freddie can fully substitute for a healthy banking system. If it can’t, the muddle-through strategy will turn out to be a recipe for a prolonged, Japanese-style era of high unemployment and weak growth.

Actually, a multiyear period of economic weakness looks likely in any case. The economy may no longer be plunging, but it’s very hard to see where a real recovery will come from. And if the economy does stay depressed for a long time, banks will be in much bigger trouble than the stress tests — which looked only two years ahead — are able to capture.

Finally, given the possibility of bigger losses in the future, the government’s evident unwillingness either to own banks or let them fail creates a heads-they-win-tails-we-lose situation. If all goes well, the bankers will win big. If the current strategy fails, taxpayers will be forced to pay for another bailout.

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