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Robert Reich: No Double-Dip Because There Was No Recovery

Robert Reich says there's no truth to the idea of a double-dip recession, because most people never recovered from the first one:

More people are out of work today than were last year, counting everyone too discouraged even to look for work. The number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level since February. Not counting temporary census workers, a total of only 12,000 net new private and public jobs were created in July -- when 125,000 are needed each month just to keep up with growth in the population of people who want and need to work.

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Not since the government began to measure the ups and downs of the business cycle has such a deep recession been followed by such anemic job growth. Jobs came back at a faster pace even in March 1933 after the economy started to "recover" from the depths of the Great Depression. Of course, that job growth didn't last long. That recovery wasn't really a recovery at all. The Great Depression continued. And that's exactly my point. The Great Recession continues.

Even investors are beginning to see reality. Starting in February the stock market rallied because corporate profits were rising briskly. Investors didn't mind that profits were coming from payroll cuts, foreign sales, and gimmicks like share buy-backs -- none of which could be sustained over the long term. But the rally died in April when investors began to see how paper-thin these profits actually were. And now the stock market is back to where it was at the start of the year.

[...] Forget the Neo-Hoover deficit hawks who say we have to cut government spending and trim upcoming deficits. We didn't get into this mess and aren't remaining in it because of budget deficits. In fact, the only way to reduce long-term deficits is to restore jobs and growth so government revenues rise and expenses like unemployment insurance drop.

[...] The central problem is lack of demand -- and that's what has to be tackled.



Open Thread: USA's Landon Donovan scores the winning goal!

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The USA gets a stunning goal by Landon Donovan to defeat Algeria in extended play and the USA wins their group for the first time since 1930. They get to move on to the knock out stage and play the home town favorite, Ghana. They were a minute away from packing their bags and going home. Talk about ups and downs. The USA dominated on their chances, but kept falling short and I thought they were done. And then suddenly goalie Tim Howard looks like Drew Brees and hits Donovan on a long pass. LD makes a mad dash, passes to Jozy Altidore, who spots Dempsey down the middle, the goalie makes the save and Landon cleaned up the rebound beautifully. The refs almost destroyed our chances of moving on by disallowing another goal that should have counted early on in the game, but the USA came away with a goal in the 91st minute mark to go undefeated in their group.

Sean Pendergast has a good piece up about the game and American soccer in general.
Bill Clinton was at the game cheering on the Yanks too...That's all for now. Carry on and chat away on any topic you like...

And don't forget to buy this book.



Mike's Blog Round Up

Balloon Juice: Assassinating American citizens is not okay.

Scholars and Rogues: A serious (scary) look at Glenn Beck.

SexGenderBody (NSFW): The politics of death and dying, or what to do with a cadaver.

Skippy: With their "findings" on Kagan, the Freepers are losing it.

You Are Dumb: Summer Movie Hating Preview

[Round ups by Blue Gal while Mike is away this weekend. Send tips to bluegalsblog AT gmail]



Sunday Morning Bobblehead Thread

WarGames, 1983

It's such a simple notion: the only way to win a global thermonuclear war is to choose not to play. Even the wingnut-revered St. Ronnie of Reagan believed that. And after eight years of fear-mongering over mushroom clouds by various players, let us celebrate having the sanity of grown ups in charge again, realizing that the only way to win is not to play. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Defense Secretary Robert Gates will be pulling triple duty on the bobblehead shows to discuss their recent negotiations with the Russians to reduce nuclear arms. Also, because Roger Ailes clearly believes you can't have too much crazy in a single show, McCain BFF "Holy Joe" Liebermann and Palin coattail-rider Michele Bachmann will be on Fox News Sunday. In fact, it appears that aside from Gates and Clinton, all eyes are on Republicans this week, with the discussion centering around the Republican Governors' Association on State of the Union and drama queens Jeff Sessions and Jon Kyl, on Meet the Press and This Week, respectively. Sadly, it doesn't appear that the bobblehead show producers will ever learn any lesson.

ABC's "This Week" - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton; Defense Secretary Robert Gates; Sens. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., and Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

CBS' "Face the Nation" - Clinton; Gates.

NBC's "Meet the Press" - Clinton; Gates; Sens. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., and Jeff Sessions, R-Ala.

NBC's "The Chris Matthews Show" - Panel: Dan Rather, Katty Kay, Helene Cooper, David Ignatius. Topics: Fight For The Court: How Left Will Obama Go & Will Republicans Filibuster? New World Order: Will Obama Be A Transformational Figure Abroad As Well?

CNN's "State of the Union" - Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, chairman, Republican Governors Association.

CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS" - Is the leader of Afghanistan on drugs? Peter Galbraith, one of America's most distinguished diplomats over the years, draws some striking conclusions on America's mission in Afghanistan. Plus, the Editor of Time Magazine, a Pulitzer prize-winning historian, Reuters' global editor-at-large, and the newest and youngest columnist for the New York Times debate the future of Western conservatism -- are tea parties only the beginning?

"Fox News Sunday" - Sens. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., and Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn.; Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn.

So what's catching your eye this morning?



Mike's Blog Roundup

AverageBro: Ohhh Snap! Palin claps back at Obama!

Whiskey Fire: Need another snitch

Politics in the Zeros: Hedge fund created assets designed to fail

Angry Bear: Actual list of Social Security Trust Fund assets

Watergate Summer: Charities working with the families of the West Virginia miners

OFF THE BEATEN PATH: Ice Station Tango, Workbench, Bitch Slap Politics



Sunday Morning Bobblehead Thread

Ingrid Michaelson--Be OK, for StandUpToCancer.org

After all the sturm und drang over the health care reform vote, expected today, tea party protests and their escalating violent rhetoric and tantrums by members of the House and in the liberal blogosphere over what this bill does and doesn't mean, I'm beyond my outrage fatigue level. I just want to be okay. The attitude all over the country has been made toxic, by hate, by fear, by lies, by betrayal. I just want to feel okay today. The media has failed us all, by constantly going to the minority party's take, making it seem more significant than it is; by repeating talking points without context; by acting as every issue has a valid left vs. right argument. I just want to know today I'll be okay.

But Sunday isn't going to help me be okay. Because I guarantee it will be more sturm und drang, more tantrum, and more toxicity. Look at these line-ups. More left vs. right false dichotomies, more air time to people who deserve no such privilege (Karl Rove, I'm looking at you) and more milquetoast-y, polite Democrats set up against the screechiest Republicans. I don't think I'll be okay today.

ABC's "This Week" - Reps. Eric Cantor, R-Va., and John Larson, D-Conn.; David Plouffe, former Obama presidential campaign manager; Karl Rove, former George W. Bush adviser.

CBS' "Face the Nation" - Reps. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., and Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.; Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.; Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill.

NBC's "Meet the Press" - House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio; House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md.; Tim Kaine, chairman of the Democratic National Committee; Michael Steele, chairman of the Republican National Committee; Anita Dunn, former Obama White House communications director; Ed Gillespie, former Bush White House counselor.

NBC's "The Chris Matthews Show" - Panel: Howard Fineman, Kelly O'Donnell, Michele Norris, Michael Duffy. Topics: After health care, how do Democrats avoid a blowout in the midterms? How liberal can Obama's next Supreme Court nominee be? Should Obama Move To the Center Instead of the Left As A Reelection Strategy? YES: 11 NO: 1; Will "Repeal Health Care" Be A Winning Slogan For Republicans This Fall? YES: 5 No: 7.

CNN's "State of the Union" - Sens. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, and Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.; Reps. Larson and Mike Pence, R-Ind.

CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS" - Fareed holds a discussion about Israel and what its ambassador to Washington calls the crisis in its relations with the United States of America. We're joined by Mort Zuckerman who just met with Prime Minister Netanyahu, and Martin Indyk, who has served as Ambassador to Israel twice and ran the Middle East division at the State Department as well as the National Security Council. Plus, Michael Lewis has returned to his original love (or hate) -- Wall Street. He has a new book out on the financial crisis and some very provocative ideas about Wall Street as a dying empire.

"Fox News Sunday" - Reps. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla.; Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.

So what is catching your eye this morning?



Obama Will Propose Outsourcing for Some NASA Programs

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What a great idea. What could possibly go wrong? Because the private sector never, ever cuts corners to save a buck!

Okay, even assuming nothing goes wrong, where is the upside for the United States? That we get to applaud a space shuttle with the PayPal logo painted on the side? Gives me that fuzzy, warm feeling just thinking about it:

The White House has decided to begin funding private companies to carry NASA astronauts into space, but the proposal faces major political and budget hurdles, according to people familiar with the matter.

The controversial proposal, expected to be included in the Obama administration's next budget, would open a new chapter in the U.S. space program. The goal is to set up a multiyear, multi-billion-dollar initiative allowing private firms, including some start-ups, to compete to build and operate spacecraft capable of ferrying U.S. astronauts into orbit—and eventually deeper into the solar system.

Congress is likely to challenge the concept's safety and may balk at shifting dollars from existing National Aeronautics and Space Administration programs already hurting for funding to the new initiative. The White House's ultimate commitment to the initiative is murky, according to these people, because the budget isn't expected to outline a clear, long-term funding plan.

[...] The idea of outsourcing a portion of NASA's manned space program to the private sector gained momentum after recommendations from a presidential panel appointed last year. The panel, chaired by former Lockheed Martin Corp. Chairman Norman Augustine, argued that allowing companies to build and launch their own rockets and spacecraft to carry American astronauts into orbit would save money and also free up NASA to focus on more ambitious, longer-term goals.

What a coincidence, that the former Lockheed Martin chair would think this was a good idea!

However, many in NASA's old guard oppose the plan. Charles Precourt, a former chief of NASA's astronaut corps who is now a senior executive at aerospace and defense firm Alliant Techsystems Inc., said that farming out large portions of the manned space program to private firms would be a "really radical" and an "extremely high risk" path. Unless the overall budget goes up, he said, whatever new direction NASA pursues "isn't going to be viable."



The president's first year in office has come to an end, so it's time for new polling to commence. His health-care bill is still stuck in limbo and he's been under siege by conservatives and Fox News the whole time -- all of which has put his favorables down at their lowest point.

But yesterday, Fox News released a new poll which had some interesting results. (It was done by Opinion Dynamics Corp., so there's that too.)

The poll does say that voters want a change in 2012, but the hypothetical head-to-head match ups are quite revealing.

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, President Obama tops each of the Republican candidates tested.

By 47 percent to 35 percent Obama bests former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. The president has an even wider edge over former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin (55 percent to 31 percent), and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (53 percent to 29 percent).

Finally, twice as many people say they would vote for Obama (48 percent) as would back a candidate from the Tea Party movement (23 percent).

Even with Fox actively trying to undermine the President, he still destroys the field of candidates at the top of the GOP's list.

Mitt Romney is the closest, but is down by 12 points.

Sarah Palin just came off of an incredible PR blitz with her new book tour and still is down 24 points.

Newt Gingrich and his ever-changing marriages and religions is down by 24 points.

Tea Partiers are down by 25 points.

I'm surprised by these numbers, even if it's a Fox News poll, but it shows that he's still in a decent position as he moves forward. The administration needs to come out swinging in 2010 and going after Wall Street is a good idea, but health care remains a major problem that must be addressed.

How time is flashing before our eyes.



Sunday Morning Bobblehead Thread

CollegeHumor.com's The End of The World

It's an old newsroom axiom: If it bleeds, it leads. The bobblehead corollary to that axiom is that even if no one actually bled from the event, if the possibility of someone bleeding existed, then it leads, with plenty of speculation as to whose head should roll from this almost-bloodbath. And the thwarted (and let's be honest, really poorly planned and a pretty lame) attempt on the part of the Underpants Bomber is just the kind of scenario that makes the bobbleheads excited: perfect for partisan sniping and insinuations of everything from benign neglect to gross malfeasance. Hence the appearance of the Senate's version of Statler and Waldorf on State of the Union all the way from Jerusalem, to heckle Obama as only two irrelevant electoral losers can. And Pete Hoekstra, who in his Twitter stream has been eagerly linking Captain Underpants to everything, including the "smoking gun" of the Ft. Hood shootings (if you can follow his thinking, please feel free to explain it to me in the comments--I'm flummoxed.) And even more egregiously, Liz Cheney on the This Week round table. What reason could anyone have to get Liz Cheney's take on today's issues, other than for partisan sniping? Speaking of which, we will also be treated to head-to-head match ups of RNC chair Michael Steele and DNC chair Tim Kaine on Meet the Press and Fox News Sunday. Will David Gregory find his journalistic gonads enough to ask Michael Steele why he's using an outside PR firm to promote his book instead of the RNC flacks? On the non-bleeding side, WH Economic Adviser Christina Romer will be on a couple shows as well, trying to instill some economic confidence and encourage jobs.

ABC's "This Week" - Christina Romer, chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

CBS' "Face the Nation" - Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.; Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Mich.

NBC's "Meet the Press" - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, R-Calif.; Democratic National Chairman Tim Kaine; Republican National Chairman Michael Steele.

NBC's "The Chris Matthews Show"- Panel: Joe Klein, Elisabeth Bumiller, Andrea Mitchell, David Ignatius. Topics: If al-Qaeda Is On The Run, Why Do They Seem On The Attack? Does Obama Have Support From the Military and Intell Leadership, and Does He Have Their Back? Have the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Helped the Fight Against al-Qaeda? YES: 7 NO: 5; Will Obama Push A Big Jobs Bill Next Year? YES: 6 No: 6.

CNN's "State of the Union" - Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Joe Lieberman, I-Conn.; former Gov. Doug Wilder, D-Va.; Romer.

CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS" - Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen discusses the war on terror, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

CNN's "Amanpour" - U.S. Gen. David Petraeus, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.

"Fox News Sunday" - Sens. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., and Jack Reed, D-R.I.; Kaine; Steele.

So what's catching your eye this morning?



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(h/t Heather)

Has there ever been a worse man running a political organization than Micheal Steele? I mean, I agree with his take here from the other day on Hannidate, but I doubt his RNC peeps do. They attacked him the following day which made him back off. I have to say he's been a really interesting character. He's stuck more shoes in his mouth than any politician that comes to memory since Kristol's boy named Dan Quayle. I do hope they don't fire him because he gives us so much material to work with.

HANNITY: Predictions for the election?

STEELE: Predictions for the election, I think that overall -- and we're beginning now to do the assessments on the various races. But I think overall, given what we know so far and what this administration's proclivities are, we're going to see, I think, nice pick-ups in the House. I think we're going to see nice...

HANNITY: More specific.

STEELE: Well, I can't give a number right yet. Because like I said, we're just now beginning to look at the races. And we have races where it hasn't been clear...

HANNITY: Do you think you can take over the House? Do you think Republicans...

STEELE: Not this year. And Sean, I would say honestly.

HANNITY: You don't think so?

STEELE: Well, I don't know yet, because all the candidates we still have vacancies that need to get filled. But then the question we need to ask ourselves is, if we do that, are we ready?

HANNITY: Are you?

STEELE: Are we...

HANNITY: Answer your own question. Are we -- do you think they're ready?

STEELE: I don't know. And that's what I'm assessing and evaluating right now. Those candidates that are looking to run have to be -- have to be anchored in these principles. They have to be -- they have to understand...

HANNITY: I'm agreeing with what you're saying. I think...

STEELE: They have to understand these steps, because if they don't, then they'll get to Washington, and they'll start drinking that Potomac River water. And they'll get drunk with power and...

Honesty is a deadly word when you're a conservative. The NRCC responded this way.

"The NRCC's goal - as the campaign arm of the House Republican Conference - has always been to recapture the majority in 2010. Independent political analysts and even liberal columnists have stated that Republicans have a very real shot at taking back the majority in 2010. Make no mistake about it, we are playing to win," said Ken Spain, NRCC Communications Director.