The Uptake talks to Wisconsin voters on the ground.

An open thread for results and news from Wisconsin's recall elections.

12:31 a.m.: Since I'm on the East Cost, I'm calling it a night. It looks like it'll be a while before a winner is declared and it looks like it'll be Darling (R). Hopefully I'll wake up surprised...

12:20 a.m.: Seems Nickolaus is already under investigation and Dems are calling for more.

12:16 a.m.: Multiple reports are saying that the outstanding precincts aren't enough for Pasch (D) to come back. State Dems are accusing Waukesha clerk Kathy Nickolaus of dishonesty or worse.

12:11 a.m.: WisPolitics reports Darling (R) taking a notable lead and multiple reports from the state are saying Darling will win.

12:03 a.m.: Unofficial counts via HuffPo, give Pasch about a 3000 vote lead with Menomonee Falls (in Waukesha County), a very red municipality, still to report. I'm not seeing this reported in official totals, though, that still have only 68 percent of precincts reporting.

11:59 p.m.: Tammy Baldwin previously asked for the federal Justice Department to investigate Waukesha County for previous shenanigans. Looks like that investigation is warranted more than ever. Obama et al. have to say yes to such an investigation.

11:54 p.m.: Waukesha County says no results for at least one hour. Waukesha was the county that "found" a bunch of votes to overturn the Prosser recount election.

11:48 p.m.: Not sure about the validity of earlier Pasch-Darling number (came in via HuffPo, but haven't been able to confirm it). Latest official numbers have it, with 68 percent reporting:

Pasch , Sandra Dem 23,804 51%
Darling , Alberta (i) GOP 22,693 49%

11:41 pm.: As reported earlier, two Dem pick-ups would've been enough to stop Scott Walker's collective bargaining bill, since one moderate Republican voted against it. On some level this is a victory regardless of what happens with Pasch.

11:39 p.m.: MSNBC calls it for King (D).

11:37 p.m.: Not sure what the percentage is, but Pasch leads by about 4500, but Republican strongholds still to come in.

11:35 p.m.: With 97 percent in, King (D) now up by more than 1000.

11:29 p.m.: Dems in Jess King's district say they are "certain" she will beat Hopper based on what votes are outstanding.

11:19 p.m.: John Nichols on MSNBC has been awfully accurate so far, he expects Pasch-Darling to get closer and expects King to take out Hopper.

11:17 p.m.: With 63 percent in, Pasch-Darling is getting closer.

11:13 p.m.: Question in King-Hopper race becomes, "what are the recount laws"?

11:10 p.m.: Pasch-Darling race looks to be the most expensive state legislative race in American history.

11:08 p.m.: MSNBC calls District 32 for Shilling (D).

11:04 p.m.: With 87 percent in, King retakes lead over Hopper by 137 votes.

11:02 p.m.: Everyone finally calling it for Olsen (R). First race where Dems were really hopeful of winning.

10:58 p.m.: Suprised race hasn't been called for Olsen (R) by anyone else. 96 percent in and reports say remaining districts are Olsen-friendly.

10:55 p.m.: With 79 percent in, Hopper (R) retakes lead by 500+ votes.

10:52 p.m.: Results starting to come in a lot slower. Is this the part of the night where we start waiting for long periods of time?

10:45 p.m.: WisPolitics calls race for Olsen (R).

10:43 p.m.: King (D) up by nearly 700 now. Three pick-ups looking good (but way too soon to call).

10:40 p.m.: With 94 percent in, Clark looks done for. Pasch and Shilling are expanding their leads.

10:38 p.m.: Fred Clark (D) keeps gaining on Luther Olsen, but he's running out of precincts.

10:34 p.m.: The four remaining races:

State Senate - District 8 - General

Wisconsin - 15 of 82 Precincts Reporting - 18%

Pasch , Sandra Dem 8,848 57%
Darling , Alberta (i) GOP 6,741 43%

State Senate - District 14 - General

Wisconsin - 98 of 126 Precincts Reporting - 78%

Olsen , Luther (i) GOP 17,504 54%
Clark , Fred Dem 15,155 46%

State Senate - District 18 - General

Wisconsin - 21 of 108 Precincts Reporting - 19%

King , Jessica Dem 7,464 50%
Hopper , Randy (i) GOP 7,368 50%

State Senate - District 32 - General

Wisconsin - 59 of 119 Precincts Reporting - 50%

Shilling , Jennifer Dem 11,353 53%
Kapanke , Dan (i) GOP 9,968 47%

10:30 p.m.: Jessica King (D) takes tiny lead over Randy Hopper (R), giving Dems leads in three races.

10:26 p.m.: Alberta Darling: "We're taking back the state." She appears to have forgotten that they already run the state and the fact that they are losing two races at the moment.

10:25 p.m.: Other races all too close to call.

10:22 p.m.: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel calls race for Harsdorf (R).

10:20 p.m.: With 72 percent in, Harsdorf (R) looks to be a winner, again, no surprise there.

10:16 p.m.: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel calls race for Cowles (R). This was the most conservative district.

10:15 p.m.: Pasch has taken a small lead over Alberta Darling (R), this is the game-changer. It's early, though, with only 18 percent in.

10:14 p.m.: With 80 percent in Cowles (R) is up big, almost certain to win. No surprise.

10:03 p.m.: The Ed Show is saying that most of the votes in so far are from rural areas and that many of the bigger cities had polls stay open for more than an hour after closing to complete the lines.

Results as of 10 p.m. EST:

State Senate - District 2 - General

Wisconsin - 44 of 90 Precincts Reporting - 49%

Cowles , Robert (i) GOP 10,777 57%
Nusbaum , Nancy Dem 8,029 43%

State Senate - District 8 - General

Wisconsin - 7 of 82 Precincts Reporting - 9%

Darling , Alberta (i) GOP 3,183 71%
Pasch , Sandra Dem 1,320 29%

State Senate - District 10 - General

Wisconsin - 61 of 114 Precincts Reporting - 54%

Harsdorf , Sheila (i) GOP 16,753 58%
Moore , Shelly Dem 12,056 42%

State Senate - District 14 - General

Wisconsin - 46 of 126 Precincts Reporting - 37%

Olsen , Luther (i) GOP 7,576 55%
Clark , Fred Dem 6,208 45%

State Senate - District 18 - General

Wisconsin - 8 of 108 Precincts Reporting - 7%

Hopper , Randy (i) GOP 3,025 54%
King , Jessica Dem 2,576 46%

State Senate - District 32 - General

Wisconsin - 29 of 119 Precincts Reporting - 24%

Shilling , Jennifer Dem 2,541 51%
Kapanke , Dan (i) GOP 2,468 49%

The Young Turks take a look at Wisconsin's recall elections.

Check back here throughout the day for news and updates on the Wisconsin recall elections (updates in EST).

-9:54 p.m.: Incumbents Cowles and Harsdorf appear to be cruising to victory, other races still too close to comment on.

-9:39 p.m.: With very early results (less than 20 percent reporting in all districts, less than 10 percent reporting in most districts), the only Republican currently losing is Dan Kapanke, the most vulnerable of the incumbents.

-9:16 p.m.: There was a machine malfunction in Fon Du Lac that caused some delays this afternoon

-9:01 p.m.: Polls are now closed in Wisconsin.

-7:43 p.m.: Fox is lying about Wisconsin unions, not surprisingly.

-Former Packer lineman Gilbert Brown did robocalls in favor of the recall.

-4:54 p.m.: Daily Kos:

Turnout is strong in Wisconsin today, but it is also not uniform:

As WisPolitics reports, city clerks in some municipalities say that turnout could be near the level of a presidential election -- though this is not true across the board, with other being closer to the hotly-contested state Supreme Court election this past April.

That is actually an enormous range. According to the article linked above, turnout in the April state Supreme Court election was 35 percent of the voting age population. However, turnout in the 2008 presidential election was 71 percent of the voting age population.

The big question is about where turnout is close to presidential levels versus where it is closer to the state Supreme Court election. If the higher turnout is skewed toward areas that favor one party, then we could end up seeing some real surprises—good or bad—tonight.

-3:01 p.m.: Uppity Wisconsin:

The fact worth noting in this right winger's analysis, which would make victory even sweeter: The seats being recalled represent 288 combined consecutive years of Republican representation. For the most part, the six seats up for election today are very GOP-heavy. Sen. Luther Olsen’s district has been represented by a Republican since 1896; Sen. Randy Hopper’s seat has been in Republican hands since 1936. Senator Rob Cowles’ seat near Green Bay was last held by a Democrat 61 years ago, in 1950. The least-Republican seat, held by Sen. Dan Kapanke for only seven years, is almost certain to go to the Democrats today.

-11:54 a.m.: Cognitive Dissonance:

I'm already receiving reports that teahadists are popping up at various polling sites and putting up handmade signs saying that an ID was needed to vote.

This is not true!!

If you have seen this, or have any other interference with your right to vote, call your election commission, and notify these folks, Wisconsin Election Protection.

But don't let these thugs intimidate you or trick you into not voting. Every single vote counts!

-11:28 a.m.: Cognitive Dissonance:

In one race rated a toss-up, Rep. Sandy Pasch (Whitefish Bay) has volunteers already lining up outside the doors this morning to challenge Sen. Alberta Darling in Senate district 8 just north of Milwaukee.

Because of the enormous outpouring, an insider this morning is now saying Pasch is likely to knock off Darling.

-7:48 a.m.: Cognitive Dissonance:

From a Fond du Lac voter this morning: "I wonder if I’m the only person who gets so upset at poll workers having to ask for picture ID. The man behind me in line, said 'Well, there’s no trouble here, but in Milwaukee (read black), there’s thousands of cases of vote fraud.' I told him that’s not true, and asked if he could even conceive of people wanting to vote so much that they would actually commit fraud (that’s not the right word anyway). I told him it’s been my experience that you cannot get people to vote easily enough. I think people just believe what they are told, don’t question anything and march in lockstep. I guess he’s a Republican."

-Darling Kills Voters Rights: Cheats for Lobbyists:

(via Cognitive Dissonance)

Most blog readers are well aware of what's happening in Wisconsin tomorrow, where six tea party-friendly state senators face recall elections. These elections are vital for Wisconsin -- particularly Wisconsin's working families -- because if Democrats win at least three of these seats, they will regain control of the state senate (Republicans currently hold a 19-14 majority) and can stop the extreme actions of Gov. Scott Walker and his conservative allies. Tomorrow's elections have been the target of more than $20 million and trickery from groups like Americans for Prosperity. On the other side, a host of progressive groups have lent a hand to fight against Walker's cronies in the state senate.

But the importance of the election goes well beyond Wisconsin. As many have pointed out, success in Wisconsin would show not only the power of the grassroots, but could serve as a bellwether for 2012's elections and could predict a "re-imagining of the Democratic Party." The senators up for recall are all conservatives who were able to win in 2008 despite Barack Obama's victory in the state and these victories would be a sign that the voters are fed up with right-wing assaults on working Americans. The elections could also set the stage for a recall of Walker himself next year and could play a big role in redistricting, where friendlier Democratic maps could help eliminate freshman Republicans Reid Ribble and Sean Duffy.

It's also important to note that the recall elections, if successful, would be a step in the right direction for achieving gender equality in office, particularly bringing progressive women into office:

The recalls in Wisconsin have been unprecedented for numerous reasons, but one that hasn't received much attention is the fact that women are running in five out of six of the recall races. The demographic population of Wisconsin shows men and women roughly evenly split, but in the State Senate only eight of the 33 Senators are women. In the recall races three progressive women are challenging three conservative men (with the other two challenging conservative women). If those seats are flipped that'll make the count 11 women in the State Senate or 33 percent of the Senate. Combining both chambers of the Wisconsin state legislature women only make up less than 23 percent of members.

Predictions range anywhere from Democrats sweeping all six seats tomorrow to only picking up one or two seats, which would not be enough to stop Walker's agenda. Almost everyone believes that voter turnout will be the key and a massive effort has been made to get out the vote tomorrow. As of August 3, the Democratic field program had reported the following:

As of this morning, over 11,700 volunteers and staff have knocked on 437,235 doors and made 716,339 phone calls for a grand total of 1,153,574 attempts! Our field team has been meeting and surpassing goals week in and week out and they are ready to move into GOTV.

We now have 87% of our GOTV shifts filled for our August 9th elections and 83% of our shifts filled for the August 16th Democratic protects in SD 12 and SD 22. Statewide we have 6,228 shifts filled. With only six days until our next set of elections, time is short but, we’re ready.

A quick preview of the six races that will be on the ballot tomorrow, in order of likelihood of a Democratic pick-up:

1. SD32: Most observers give this race to Jennifer Shilling over incumbent Dan Kapanke. Recent polling showed Shilling with a double digit lead.

2. SD18: Jessica King had a 8% lead over thug Hopper in a recent poll. In a just world, a guy like this would have no chance to hld this seat, and he only won it by 184 votes in 2008.

Randy Hopper: "I'm going to ruin you for every F-ing thing you've done"

3. SD8: This race has been within the margin of error in recent polls, but it's hard to see how an incompetent alleged criminal like Darling could hold a seat she only won by 1,007 votes in a district that went for Obama in 2008. Sandy Pasch would do both Wisconsin and the country a service by taking out Darling.

Alberta Darling: Can't name one job created in her district

4. SD14: Democrats believe they have a legitimate shot for Fred Clark to win here and take out Luther Olsen. Polling has shown the race to be within the margin of error and the party is excited about the paid media and GOTV efforts they've put forth in the district.

5. SD10: Shelly Moore has consistently trailed incumbent Sheila Harsdorf beyond the margin of error, but Democrats say the district is rabidly anti-Scott Walker and with GOTV efforts that are well beyond the goals they set, they think the race might still turn in Moore's favor.

6. SD2: Nancy Nusbaum also trails the incumbent -- Robert Cowles -- by more than the margin of error. Nusbaum has more money for the final push and Democrats point to an enthusiasm gap in the district that could help them pull off the upset.

It's not too late to help out in Wisconsin. If you are in the Wisconsin area, sign up to help get out the vote. If you are anywhere else, you can participate in virtual phonebanking. Next week, two more senate recall elections will take place, so things are far from being settled in Wisconsin.

To keep up with the up-to-the-minute details of the recall elections tomorrow, check out the following progressive Wisconsin blogs:

*Blogging Blue
*blue cheddar
*Cognitive Dissidence
*Dane 101
*illusory/tenant
*Left on the Lake
*Mal Contends
*Uppity Wisconsin

This reminds me of something I tweeted a month ago: GOP job creation? Marry your mistress, creating job vacancy, and fill it. Progress!

As he pointed out in his campaign ad, Wisconsin Republican Sen. Randy Hopper really does know how to create jobs. His new girlfriend (he's 45, she's 26) just got a new job working for the state -- and it pays $11,000 more than the last person who filled it.

Just a coincidence, doesn't have a thing to do with Hopper being best buds with Gov. Scott Walker!

Even though the state is supposedly broke, top officials in Gov. Scott Walker's team were able to scrape together enough money to give a state job to the woman identified as Sen. Randy Hopper's girlfriend.

Anything for a political ally.

Valerie Cass, a former Republican legislative staffer, was hired Feb. 7 as a communications specialist with the state Department of Regulation and Licensing. She is being paid $20.35 per hour. The job is considered a temporary post.

Cass previously had worked in the state Senate and for the GOP campaign consulting firm Persuasion Partners in Madison. She also was paid for campaign work for the state Republican Party and U.S. Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner before that.

"Ms. Cass' name was among many forwarded to DRL by the Governor's Transition Team as potential candidates for positions with the department," said David Carlson, the agency's spokesman.

But who exactly recommended her for the post?

Cullen Werwie, spokesman for the governor, confirmed that it was Keith Gilkes, Walker's chief of staff. She was then interviewed by the Department of Regulations and Licensing's executive assistant and deputy and hired by Secretary Dave Ross, a Walker cabinet member.

An internal staff directory lists Cass as working in the secretary's office as the assistant to the executive assistant.

Werwie said Gilkes did not recommend her as a favor to the first-term lawmaker, who voted for the governor's controversial budget-repair bill earlier this month.

[...] Since the recall effort was launched, news outlets and bloggers have focused in on Hopper's pending divorce. His estranged wife, Alysia, issued a statement to WTMJ-TV (Channel 4) accusing Hopper, 45, of beginning an affair with Cass, 26, last year. He filed for divorce in August.

"Randy is the love of my life," she said in the statement. "This divorce and the lack of any attempt to save our marriage is solely his decision not mine."

There have been conflicting reports on whether she or the family's maid signed Hopper's recall petition. Democratic Party sources have told No Quarter that Hopper's estranged wife has agreed to give to his opponent, whoever that may be.

Hopper has maintained that he had nothing to do with Cass' recent appointment to the state job.

[...] Carlson said she filled a vacancy created by a previous limited-term employee who left in January. These temporary workers can put in no more than 1,043 hours during a fiscal year, which ends June 30. According to a Madison TV report, Cass received a substantial pay raise over her predecessor.

If she were to put in a full year in her current job, she would make about $43,200. Her predecessor was paid at a rate of $31,200 a year.