This counters the previous description of al-Qaida groups as being independent of centralized control:

WASHINGTON – The wealth of information pulled from Osama bin Laden's compound has reinforced the belief that he played a strong role in planning and directing attacks by al-Qaida and its affiliates in Yemen and Somalia, senior U.S. officials said Friday.

And the data further demonstrates to the U.S. that top al-Qaida commanders and other key insurgents are scattered throughout Pakistan, not just in the rugged border areas, and are being supported and given sanctuary by Pakistanis, a senior defense official said.

U.S. counterterrorism officials have debated how big a role bin Laden and core al-Qaida leaders were playing in the attacks launched by affiliated terror groups, particularly al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, which is based in Yemen, and al-Shabab in Somalia.

Information gathered in the compound, officials said, strengthened beliefs that bin Laden was a lot more involved in directing al-Qaida personnel and operations than sometimes thought over the last decade. And it suggests bin Laden was "giving strategic direction" to al-Qaida affiliates in Somalia and Yemen, the defense official said.

Bin Laden's first priority, the official said, was his own security. But the data shows that he was far more active in providing guidance and telling affiliated groups in Yemen and Somalia what they should or should not be doing.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive material.

Apparently courage is contagious, and Northern African regimes plan to stop the spread in its tracks:

Riot police have been deployed in the centre of the Algerian capital, Algiers, ahead of a planned anti-government rally. The government has banned the protest, but opposition and rights groups say they intend to go ahead with the march.

Algeria - like other countries in the region - has recently witnessed demonstrations for greater freedoms.

On Friday, police stopped people from gathering to celebrate the fall of Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak. The BBC's Chloe Arnold in Algiers say the authorities want to avert any popular uprising similar to those in Tunisia and Egypt.

"We are ready for the march," Mohsen Belabes, a spokesman for the small Rally for Culture and Democracy (RCD) opposition party, said.

And in Yemen:

(Sanaa) - Hundreds of men armed with knives, sticks, and assault rifles attacked anti-government protesters in Yemen's capital, Sanaa, as Yemeni security forces stood by, Human Rights Watch said today. Within an hour, the 1,000-plus protesters had been pushed from the square and at least 10 had been detained by security forces, Human Rights Watch said.

Human Rights Watch witnessed at least 10 army trucks carrying men in civilian clothing to Sanaa's Tahrir Square, where a crowd of around 1,000 Yemenis had been demonstrating in support of the historic changes in Egypt and against the Yemeni government. Hundreds of men, their arrival coordinated by uniformed security agents, attacked the anti-government protesters with knives and sticks, prompting the majority to flee.

While pro-democracy protesters in Egypt are fighting it out in the streets against armed government thugs, there's another battle taking place in the court of public opinion. For those with a bent toward assuming everything this country does is evil and the same regardless of administration, President Obama has not done enough to support the pro-democracy forces.

But as today's Wikileaks document release shows, the Obama administration's approach to diplomacy and human rights is completely different than the Bush administration. Of course, you should always take these cables with a grain of salt, since they represent the point of view of the writer, but they're still enlightening.

In 2004, Yemen's President Saleh reached out to President Bush via diplomatic channels. This was shortly after Bush's re-election in 2004, the Iraq war was raging away, Afghanistan was languishing, and the term "Islamic extremists" was on the tip of everyone's tongue.

From Embassy Sanaa, December 6, 2004:

President Saleh emphasized his desire to be among the first foreign leaders to personally congratulate President Bush on his reelection, and said he needed to meet with Secretary of State designate Dr. Rice and other newly appointed senior officials to raise new regional developments that can only be discussed "face to face."

[...]

True to form, Saleh launched into a list of what he believes the U.S. owes him. "Where is the money for the Army, and what about my spare (F-5) parts?" Saleh demanded. Ambassador promise to follow up on this matter. (Note: OMC reports difficulties in getting MOD to follow through with the necessary paperwork on parts and equipment in order to spend the 17 million USD in Yemen's FMF account. End Note.)

You might wonder why Yemen's president felt as though he could be so petulant and demanding? I certainly did. The answer seems to be farther down in the cable.

Saleh raised the 28 security detainees, meant to be released in the Ramadan amnesty, who the ROYG has agreed to continue to hold based on USG objections. Saleh told Ambassador that the 28 were arrested under suspicion of AQ membership, having returned to Yemen from Saudi Arabia or Afghanistan, but that after investigation there was no evidence they were involved in terrorist acts. "We are waiting for information from you," said Saleh. Ambassador replied that we had already provided all the information currently available. The problem, said Ambassador, is continued ROYG refusal to exchange information. Ambassador reiterated that we have asked repeatedly for the evidence that led the ROYG to conclude these 28 should be released. Surely there must be case files, transcripts of interviews, investigation notes, pressed Ambassador, yet the ROYG maintains it has no information on these suspects.

There's more in there about grey market weapons transactions and the like, but these exchanges seem key. Clearly the Bush administration was trading aid, military funding, and weapons for Yemeni agreement to hold hostages on trumped-up, unprovable charges.

Continue reading »

One of the more interesting facets of the ongoing protests in Egypt has been how neighboring countries are responding to populist unrest in their own countries.

In advance of Yemen's "Day of Rage" set for Thursday, Yemen's president released this statement:

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh said on Wednesday he will not seek to extend his presidency in a move that would bring an end to a three-decade rule when his current term expires in 2013.

Eyeing protests that brought down Tunisia's leader and threaten to topple Egypt's president, Saleh also vowed not to pass on the reins of government to his son.

"No extension, no inheritance, no resetting the clock," Saleh said, speaking ahead of a planned large rally due on Thursday in Sanaa that has been dubbed a "Day of rage."

I'm not sure the people are willing to wait until 2013. We'll see.

Moving on to Jordan, King Abdullah II has replaced his entire cabinet in an effort to expedite reforms.

The surprise move by the monarch, a key U.S. ally, was intended to prevent growing demonstrations across the country from gathering steam. But the Islamist opposition promised more protests, charging that the new prime minister is unfit to rule and that the king's step did not go far enough.

Members of Islamist and secular groups had demanded the dismissal of Rifai and his cabinet, widely accused of corruption. The government was also blamed for cutting subsidies that led to rises in fuel and food prices and for moving too slowly on political reform.

Over in Syria, unrest is also afoot with a rally being organized to take place in Damascus. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad isn't shaking up the government over it, because he claims to be "closely linked to the beliefs of the people." Yet, there are still organizing efforts afoot for a February 5th "day of rage".

The organizers of the planned demonstrations in Damascus and Aleppo have listed their demands: an improvement in living standards, respect for human rights, freedom of speech for all Syrian citizens, and greater influence for Syrian youth. They requested that the protesters come equipped with nothing more than Syrian flags and signs expressing their demands.

Dominoes can fall far away, or close to home. I can't help but notice the similarities between what has sparked the commitment to these demonstrations in the Middle East and our own situation here. Rising food prices, fuel prices, high unemployment, poverty and increasing divides between the haves and have-nots are not Muslim or Christian concerns. They're human concerns, and they exist in this country, too.

Over the weekend, I noticed that Coca-Cola and Nestle shut down their operations in Egypt, at least temporarily until things stabilize. Who knew they even had operations in Egypt? I wonder what they paid their workers. I'm guessing it wasn't enough for them to get ahead, just like here.

At the heart of these demonstrations, there's a human cry to be heard, to have hope, and a pathway to a better future. That's not all that different from here. We have the benefit of having elections, but whether they're free or fair is another question, given the current right-wing attack on minority voters and efforts at voter suppression, not to mention Citizens United. We've seen what the first round brought -- a Congress hell-bent on depriving us of access to health care, oppressing women, and catering to their corporate masters. What will 2012 bring? And will we be willing to have our own "day of rage"?

Well, the system did work, sort of. But not much good to question someone when they get off the plane if the person in question is going to blow up the plane:

Reporting from Washington - U.S. border security officials learned of the alleged extremist links of the suspect in the Christmas Day jetliner bombing attempt as he was airborne from Amsterdam to Detroit and had decided to question him when he landed, officials disclosed Wednesday.

The new information shows that border enforcement officials discovered the suspected extremist ties involving the Nigerian, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, in a database despite intelligence failures that have been criticized by President Obama.

"The people in Detroit were prepared to look at him in secondary inspection," a senior law enforcement official said. "The decision had been made. The [database] had picked up the State Department concern about this guy -- that this guy may have been involved with extremist elements in Yemen."

If the intelligence had been detected sooner, it could have resulted in the interrogation and search of Abdulmutallab at the airport in Amsterdam, according to senior law enforcement officials, all of whom requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the case.

"They could have made the decision on whether to stop him from getting on the plane," the senior law enforcement official said.

But an administration official said late Wednesday that the information would not have resulted in further scrutiny before the suspect departed. Abdulmutallab was in a database containing half a million names of people with suspected extremist links but who are not considered threats. Therefore, border security officials would have sought only to question him upon arrival in the U.S., the administration official said.

(h/t Mike.)

I'm cautiously optimistic that the administration so far appears to be reluctant to barreling into yet another war in Yemen, even if the beloved Joe Lieberman thinks it's a good idea. Starting a war in Yemen would be catastrophic, not the least because the country has urban areas surrounded by tribal, fundamentalist villages in difficult terrain. And as we've seen, American invasions only strengthen Islamic fundamentalism, they don't stop it:

SAN'A, Yemen -- The U.S. and Britain closed their embassies in Yemen on Sunday in the face of al-Qaida threats, after both countries announced an increase in aid to the government to fight the terror group linked to the failed attempt to bomb a U.S. airliner on Christmas.

The confrontation with al-Qaida's offshoot in Yemen has gained new urgency since the 23-year-old Nigerian accused in the attack, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, told American investigators he received training and instructions from the group's operatives in Yemen. President Barack Obama said Saturday that the al-Qaida offshoot was behind the attempt.

The White House counterterrorism chief John Brennan said the American Embassy, which was attacked twice in 2008, was shut Sunday because of an "active" al-Qaida threat. A statement on the embassy's Web site announcing the closure cited "ongoing threats" from the terror group and did not say how long it would remain closed.

In London, Britain's Foreign Office said its embassy was closed for security reasons. It said officials would decide later whether to reopen it on Monday.

The closure comes as Washington is dramatically stepping up aid to Yemen to fight al-Qaida, which has built up strongholds in remote parts of the impoverished, mountainous nation where government control outside the capital is weak.

The U.S. also provided intelligence and other help to back two Yemeni air and ground assaults on al-Qaida hideouts last month, reported to have killed more than 60 people. Yemeni authorities said more than 30 suspected militants were among the dead.

1 Boring Old Man: The 00's were characterized by a disastrous and wasteful foreign policy that put us into staggering debt and a corrupt domestic policy that did nothing for the people and lined the pockets of selected segments of our financial elite.

Tengrain presents…: Makeus Sickby, M.D.

In These Times: This is Your Country on Drugs: Hooked on Big Pharma

TalkLeft: Obama directly blames AQAP in Yemen for failed Detroit attack

Balkinization: Oren Hatch and his friends get the benefit of the pages of the Wall Street Journal to tell us things about the individual mandate that are not actually true

Eschaton: Failing into a Sunday show guest slot

Mia Culpa: The new and improved Taliban nation-a must read-AFGHANISTAN was supposed to be the success story

The Dan Report: Isn't Yemen supposed to be an ally in the War on Terra?

Respectful of Otters: Opening a new front in their war on science, conservative hawks- far removed from combat- are suggesting that PTSD in soldiers and veterans is exaggerated and overdiagnosed.

A Liberal Dose: Cheney and Rumsfeld are old hands at covering up war crimes

Suburban Guerrilla: Somepeople were impressed when Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a former JAG lawyer, previously raised his voice about rights violations against the prisoners at Gitmo, but those principled times are apparently past.

Brilliant at Breakfast: Republicans...the party of "Let's Party"

Angry Bear: Plagiarism and Counting Footnotes

FOX News : Biblical Justice

U. S. Should Steal Their Money and Call It Biblical Justice

Hunts thinks the United States should hack into the Banks of Saudi Arabia and Yemen and steal $500 billion dollars. Bill was really fired up tonight and is right there with the Colonel most of the time he appears, but even he couldn't get a handle on this idea. Hunt seems to like repeating the phrase "Biblical Justice"

Download | play -WMP

Download | play -QT

Now the idea of being aggressive against the Muslim community is not a bad idea, but how are we supposed to steal all their money? He also suggests Israel go after Iran. Hmmm...I wonder how that would work out? News Hounds has the full transcripts.