Defying expectations, low-wage workers prefer Obama
By Steve Benen Monday Aug 04, 2008 1:00pm
For quite a while, there were certain trends that political observers were simply supposed to accept as fact: Barack Obama would struggle to win support from Latino voters. And Jewish voters. And working-class, low-income voters. These were obvious “truths” that “everyone” knew.
Except none of these observations are holding up well. Obama is doing very well with Latino voters, Jewish voters, and according to a new Washington Post report, working-class, low-income voters.
Democratic Sen. Barack Obama holds a 2 to 1 edge over Republican Sen. John McCain among the nation’s low-wage workers, but many are unconvinced that either presidential candidate would be better than the other at fixing the ailing economy or improving the health-care system, according to a new national poll.
Obama’s advantage is attributable largely to overwhelming support from two traditional Democratic constituencies: African Americans and Hispanics. But even among white workers — a group of voters that has been targeted by both parties as a key to victory in November — Obama leads McCain by 10 percentage points, 47 percent to 37 percent, and has the advantage as the more empathetic candidate.
Let’s not brush past this point too quickly — among low-income whites, Obama leads McCain by 10. To be sure, about one in six of the white workers remains uncommitted, but at least for now, Obama seems to have a sizable lead with a constituency that was rumored to be a lost cause up until fairly recently.
Greg Sargent concluded, “If this poll is accurate, McCain is dramatically under-performing among these voters. Will we be hearing a ‘McCain’s working class whites problem’ meme anytime soon?”
Given the data, it’s hardly an unreasonable argument to make.
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Right on!
(Gee, I wonder who Wall Street supports...)
Well well well....I am surprised by this one. Pleasantly surprised.
Saw this last nite.
It's the economy, stupid.
Now I'll go into my rant....Obama should be hammering Bush on jobs, wages, education, healthcare, pensions...WORKING CLASS ISSUES.
Play the BLAME GAME. The GOP wants to play the race card...fine. Play the CLASS WAREFARE CARD!!!!
And yet the MSM calls the race even. I wonder why?
So why are the national polls close?
confused
That's why I think all of this daily poll watching is STUPID!
This stuff is not penetrating to the average person and at least a third of Obama's core supporters can't be polled. The reality is that a majority of likely voters will start paying more attention after the conventions. Then the majority of them will make up their minds after the debates. Being that John McCain keeps making it seem like Obama is out of his league, all he has to do is hold his own in the debates and most of the Independents will break towards him.
The Obama campaign already knows it'll be close all summer and they expect a late break within the last two or three weeks. That's when you should follow the daily tracking numbers and state poll numbers.
Check out Zogby, click the map. Imagine Barr dropping out. Not good.
Reality: 1
Talking head, know it all, pundits: 0
This is a very good example of showing that most of those 24 hour talking "experts" don't know what the hell they are talking about. Maybe the public isn't as dumb as the repubs think or want them to be.
My question is, what constituency does McCain have that's making this a tight race?
Why doesn't some Obama group run an ad featuring Mr. Senility's several grand homes, so the public can see what he stands for?
Attack him. That's what the fearful need. That's what appeals to at least thirty percent of the population, and probably more.
And why not bring up his connection to the savings and loan fiasco?
Che's Lounge @ 4:
The MSM whores need for this race to be close. They understand that the conservatives will turn off their teevees once they realize that the "colored boy" is inevitable. The "polls" are a ratings driven lie.
And since Obama is so strong with Latinos...then the surrogates should be talking about IMMIGRATION in Florida.
The OTHER GOP Boogeyman. The GOP has demonized latinos. We need to take advantage of that. Latinos are the key to Florida, California, New Mexico AND Arizona.
cg @ 9:
Racist white men.
spickle @ 5:
Various confusing reasons in terms of the polling. What you have to keep in mind is that at least a third of Obama's support will come from groups that are not traditionally polled because they don't usually vote: youths, minorities, and independents. Second, these polls are measuring the candidates head-to-head when Bob Barr will impact McCain's numbers in key states. This race won't be about polling, it will be about turn out so the enthusiasm gap is FAR more important than the actual polling numbers being that Democrats have more registered voters by a large margin. If the polls say 50/50 the day before the election, then Obama will probably win by like 3 points because he's going to get a 5 to 7 point boost by his new voters, a 5 percent dip due to the Bradley effect, and Barr will drag McCain down by a point or two.
The main thing to remember is that people still do not know Obama. He won't be known until after the debates. The race is going to break late like 1980 after Reagan proved he was competent. Voters still want Obama to prove that he's competent before they fully support him because they already know what the get with McCain.
Che's Lounge @ 4:
spickle @ 5:
Nader and Barr should be running higher then McCain, even they are running better campaigns.
MSM and McCains love affair, watchout Cindy you could get left too....mabye for Sean Hannity
Cindy McSame... "What's a 'low-wage' worker ??"
Liberal AND Proud @ 11:
Latinos are not a monolithic group like Blacks. Cubans in Florida do not vote like Mexicans in California. Cubans vote based on Castro and US policies regarding Cuba. They could care less about Mexican immigration because they're guaranteed entry.
Chico Hussein @ 15:
Jon Edwards.
Chico Hussein @ 15:
in all seriousness, what do they consider a "low-wage" to be these days?
I would say that as long as you are ahead of your opponent, you don't turn around and attack him. Kind of like the guy winning the race doesn't demand more debates. Obama is stating the campaign facts in his ads, he isn't making personal attacks against McCain. McCain is using these "comical" ads to demean Obama. Could be one of those deals where you give McCain enough rope and the public will realize the how vacant his cartoon ads are.
The people this post is about aren't in the mood for suggestive cartoon ads right now. They want to know how they are going to keep their jobs and care for their families. They want the troops home and the war to end. They are too busy trying to make ends meet to take time out for the McCain Cartoon Hour.
Mister Anderson @ 16:
The GOP always had a stronghold with Latinos in Florida. The immigration issue has undermined that. That is a fact. The GOP was polling poorly with the Cuban and Latinos in Florida long before the primary season started.
spencey @ 18:
yeah, typical. look at the pictures, skip the article link... so typical
"The new poll included interviews with 1,350 randomly selected workers 18 to 64 years old who put in at least 30 hours a week but earned $27,000 or less last year"
Sounds like a coalescing of the traditional Democratic base. Remember, Hillary had the blue collar worker before, whilst Obama was the more educated/professional, a MSM oversimplification if I ever heard one.
Hopefully there's some independents in this new configuration.
ysbaddaden @ 22:
Yeah...the "independents" will include unemployed people who bought into the free market bullshit and got their heads handed to them, bankrupt people who lost their life savings in mismanaged pension funds, money funds worth pennies on the dollar and foreclosed banks, homeowners who were conned into thinking that the "home equity growth growing at 25 to 30% a year bubble" could go on forever. and military families who saw their loved ones taken away from them over a lie.
'low-wage workers prefer Obama' - just because they don't earn a great deal doesn't make them morons - of course they'd rather vore for a man with a pulse.
Steve, are you really this dumb?
spencey @ 18:
From the Washington Post article cited:
pissed off patricia @ 19:
Point well taken.
McCain is doing a pretty good job of parodying himself after all.
Obama doesn't need to do any more than just refer to the fact the McCain is out of touch with the majority of Americans.
Let the "surrogates" - including C&L etc. - hammer away on that weakness by doing exactly what they are doing.
More YouTube, etc. of McCain's ineptness, his lies, his insincere smiles, etc.
If Obama is ahead among all these groups, add to that women and African Americans groups also ...then how can the race be so tight as the pollsters are trying to tell us..?!!
Liberal AND Proud @ 12:
Yeah, the ones with good jobs as pollsters and the ones who appear on my tv every night... I think they call them 'traditional media.'
Disaffected One @ 29:
Plus the twenty or so percent who even now believe bush has done just a great as hell job for the last eight years. Die hard repubs who would vote for the devil himself if he had a republican voter registration card.
...Yet they are tied in the major polls. go figure.
PutinPlutonium @ 31:
Which means Obama is behind. No matter WHAT the polls say...you have to take off roughly 8%. That is the typical margin that blacks lose when people actually vote.
No one will admit to being a racist or even appearing like one in the open. Put them behind a curtain...totally different story.
If repub voters were honest and voted with their heads rather than some other part of their body and were not more devoted to party than to country, this race wouldn't even be close.
Having the polls show a split gives the talking heads something to talk about. They get to say things like, What does Obama have to do to ______? about a zillion times a day.
Mister Anderson @ 13:
St. ronnie was competent? The same st. ronnie with Alzheimer? The same st. ronnie that fucked Latin America (I was living there at the time)? The same st. ronnie that committed treason with Iran-Contra? That st. ronnie.
Mister Anderson @ 16:
who said blacks are monolithic ?
No one flinches when a middle-aged white male from Georgia votes exactly the opposite as a middle-aged, white male from Vermont. But if 2 blacks oppose each other, or if 2 Latinos oppose each other in their views, then everyone is shocked and cannot understand it.
Is it me, or does anyone else think that the tightness of this race as reported by the MSM and/or pollsters is BS?
I mean, Obama seems to have a significant lead in most if not all important sub-groups. The "He'll lose all of Hillary's supporters" meme, became "all of Hill's female supporters", became "all of Hill's older, female supporters", became "nevermind".
He's drawing tens of thousands when he speaks while McCain draws tens. Obama drew 200 thousand + in Germany while McCain drew crickets in S. Amerca. Obama has plans while McCain has bumper stickers. Obama is a smart and energetic mover and shaker while McCain is a doddering old man (as am I... takes one to know one ;-)).
My point is, there is no way that all of this translates to anything even close. While I'll agree there are many stupid people in this country, there can't be _that_ many who are _that_ stupid. If there are, God help us alll...
Randy @ 28:
Because they are going to screw you again like in 2004 :-D
Easier to do it when the race is "tight"
as long as obama employs the likes of Jason Furman and other like-minded corporatists any claim that obama is a progressive is somewhat empty.
if obama is for the working class, if he rejects neoliberalism (disaster capitalism, washington consensus, market populism, etc.), then he should start employing people that actually share the same POV as he does. if not, it just makes one wonder.
working class, the working poor and the poor are looking for someone to actually champion their cause. this could be a huge win for obama, if he actually leads the country that way.
El.Kabong @ 36:
no, i actually think it is tight... yet, threading the needle, i don't trust polls either.
and don't let crowd size effect your judgment
It baffles that anyone who is not a millionaire votes republican at all.
El.Kabong @ 36:
Pray very hard, cause yeah there are that many stupid people in this country ...hint (8 years of Bush, no impeachment, 2 wars and may be a 3rd one coming on your screen). Yeah! i'd tell you to go to your church/mosque/synagogue/whatever everyday.
In a sort of related topic I hope to see a post at C&L about this soon:
Companies tap pension plans to fund executive benefits
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121761989739205497.html?mod=hpp_us_pageone
Liberal AND Proud @ 32:
Let's just for argument say that you are a racist. Someone calls you on the phone and asks you which candidate you will vote for. Are you going to answer Obama? Why would you? You would just answer, McCain.
Now if instead the pollster only asks, Would you vote for a black man? Why would you answer yes? To make the pollster think you are fair minded person? He doesn't know you from adam, so what would be the point in lying?
I think the idea that people are lying about their vote is being highly over played to the point that it has become an expectation. Most racists seem to be more proud of their stand than they are embarrassed about it.
Liberal AND Proud @ 12:
Spot on, if you're rich (and I call this making over $100,000/year) & white & you don't want to pay your share you support Republicans.
POP, its a know fact that black candidates do worse on election day than they polled.
44 Teleken
I heard it said, "When you want something from your government vote Democratic, but when it comes time to pay for it vote republican."
I agree
donT agree. See, it's easier to say that you'll vote for McCain because, even if you're a racist, you don't have to deal with the thought of the other person may be judging you. It's not that fancy (anymore) to be a racist. Besides, the other person has your phone number, called at your place ... what else does that person know about you ... and who knows, you could be on candy Camera ... and you probably have african-american co-workers, and you're a damn hypocrit. My point is, unless you live in a lost southern racist small town somewhere, saying you won't vote for a black candidate can be quiet hard even if in fact you won't vote for a black man.
Seriously... This reminds me of the old line that we lose money on every sale, but make it up in volume. Obama is winning in virtually every segment of the electorate, but he's down by a point in the national polls of *all* the electorate?
Hmm... might there be some manipulation taking place? Nah...
There are still serious problems with voter caging, voting machine manipulation and placement (short them in the dem precincts), voter ID requirements, ballot shortages (again, only likely in the dem precincts), 'provisional' ballots that don't get counted, counting taking place behind closed doors, etc.
The media is keeping it close so they can have their 'horse race' ratings and that feeds right into the Rove plan to make it *appear* close, so that when the manipulation brings McCain out the winner in a squeaker, they can point and say, "see, it was close in the polls." We don't need a post-mortem on the polls the day after the election, we need to save our lives and our planet by kicking out the Wingnuts dedicated to the destruction of our Constitution and our country.
ALL VOTERS MUST go down to their county elections office and verify that they are still registered and what the ID requirements are... NOW! And they must check again after the primaries. And take your neighbor with you. Take as many neighbors as your car will hold. Tell them to take a day off from work, or wake up early or stay up late if they're shift workers. It's that important. We cannot ASSUME that we are still registered and we cannot get complacent that Obama will win in a landslide because there are so many people voting. We must show up ourselves.
I know this is a tremendous inconvenience for most people, but we MUST. Requesting an absentee ballot will eliminate some of the pressure at the polling places and on-site ballot shortages. Volunteer to be a poll worker. Make sure to be physically present at your local elections board offices on election night(s) and insist that you watch the process of counting. It's your right as a citizen. Do not let them tell you that you cannot. Don't let them tell you that it's a security thing, invite the local police to stand right beside you to exercise their rights while doing their job. Show up in overwhelming numbers. Do not be violent, only insistent.
They WILL attempt to steal the election again. We're seeing the preparations now. WE CAN NOT LET THEM!
POP, Here's an answer to your questions yesterday about Hillary showing up for Obama:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080805/ap_on_el_pr/clinton_obama_2
Liberal AND Proud @ 45:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10397.html
There are others.
Liberal AND Proud @ 51:
Any examples of Republican blacks? (I realize this is largely an oxymoron, but there are a few out there)
cg @ 9:
The Diebold constituancy?
the (R) invented modern cheap labor. they take companies to china and other second world /third world nations to exploit their work force. china has nationalized healthcare and subsidizes commodities to control prices.
this is the model darwinian capitalist prefer. this is a big part of the influx of undocumented immigrants. then they tell us we won't do the jobs they take...maybe not at those ridiculous wages and that work environment.
One example as to why Americans are in the mess we're in . The Iraq Economy has a surplus of 79 Billion dollars and growing. Talk about smart as the Iraqis build their Economy by using US money in the end who wins? No wonder so many countries are laughing at America only idiots do what we're doing in the US. Give away all the US Economy and then say Bill Clinton did it as Americans believe what their told. Now a young Black educated man has ideas and wants to lead the USA but he's black and America isn't ready for equal rights even if it means the White dude is old, dumb and can't remember, and the Black man is smart and could build our US Economy back and stop our troops from dying. Yes Americans would rather die with McCain then win with Obama.
Obama needs to put footage of McCain saying he will pay fifty dollars an hour to pick lettuce and Americans can't do it on all channels everyday. This would go along nicely with "I don't care if we stay in Iraq for a hundred years along with their 79 billion dollar surplus figures. See how so called conservatives digest that!
"Defying expectations, low-wage workers prefer Obama"
It just might be tied to the fact that he's promising to give them our money.
WalMart has a bit of work to do to educate their low wage workers to vote for Mccain. They are working on it though. Come November, they will have been educated properly.
WHO TO SUPPORT ? WHO TO SUPPORT ? WHO TO SUPPORT ? WHO TO SUPPORT ? WHO TO SUPPORT ?
that is a tough one..... the RICH WHITE GUY who is running on the same failed platform of the previous RICH WHITE GUY....
or THE OTHER GUY... the one who actually HAD TO WORK FOR A LIVING....
the GUY WHO WANTS TO LOWER TAXES TO THE RICH.....
the GUY WHO WANTS TO TAKE GAS PROFITS AND SPREAD THEM TO THE AVERAGE PERSON.....
god o god..... this is a tough decision..... hmmmmmmm......hmmmmmm
i guess i have to ask myself...... AM I A RICH WHITE GUY....... sorry John THE BUSH REPUBLICAN McLame..... you just got voted off the island!!!!
I think for working class folks in '08 its not as much "prefer Obama" as it is "A.B.R."...anybody but a Republican.
Or as is the mantra here: "He's better than McCain".
Such are the low expectations.
kerplunk @ 58:
just no one tell them about the obama campaign's jason furman
Not fucking likely. That would require the MSM to do accurate reporting.
Chico Hussein @ 36:
As a Black person, I'm saying that politically, Blacks are a monolithic group when we consistently vote for one party over the other by 85%+ margins over a period of decades. We have the least amount of leverage of any other voting group because we all but guarantee that we will vote for one party over another by such margins but our turnout won't be high enough to actually ensure victory for Democratic candidates. And that's always been ironic to me because my parents at their core actually had Conservative values.
Republicans don't do jack for the poor except try to get their votes for non-issues. No one is going to take your guns. Abortion is still legal and always will and gays can marry.
But there are always some dumbshits who would rather vote republican and have corporations steal America blind then ignore these non-issues.
Good news, everyone! By November, we'll all be working at McDonald's!
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