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2012 Republican Primary

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Wait! Ron Paul Won Iowa and Minnesota Primaries?

If I didn't know better, I'd think that Republicans are completely FUBARing their primaries to prove their contention that government is not the answer. But I think the truth of it is that Republicans are so fundamentally incompetent in running efficient systems that they're not capable of not messing up.

After hemming and hawing and literally designating at different times three of the then four Republican primary candidates the winner, it looks like Ron Paul has won both the Minnesota primary and the Iowa caucus away from presumptive nominee Mitt Romney.

Et tu, Paul?

The Texas congressman took 20 out of 24 of the delegates from the Minnesota Congressional Districts, RNC committeewoman Pat Anderson tweeted. Those delegates will go on to the state convention, scheduled to be held May 18-19, where the final 13 delegates representing Minnesota at the GOP convention will be chosen.

The news was ignored by the mainstream media, including the Associated Press, which estimated the delegate breakdown would go 17 Santorum, 10 Paul, and 6 Romney. Tweet from Minnesota's RNC National Committeewoman announcing Ron Paul's win.

In Iowa, the Des Moines Register reports that “six of the new Iowa GOP state central committee members elected at district conventions Saturday have publicly expressed support for Paul,” and “two more new central committee members have close ties to Paul.” The new state chairman is also a Ron Paul supporter, who served as a co-chairman for the congressman’s Iowa state organization.

While the pundits are quickly scrambling to say how Iowa doesn't really matter, this kind of stealth victory (which Paul has continually claimed to be his strategy) really fuels his already rabid supporters. Given these symbolic challenges to Romney's ascendance, I think the convention may be very, very fun to watch. Grab your popcorn.



Down and Pretty Close To Out In Grand Cayman

Rick Santorum has finally sauntered off the big stage, leaving him with plenty of time on his hands to harass high-school girls about their skirt length and bark at the moon about its nocturnal promiscuity.

You'd think it would be high times for Team Romney. But you'd be wrong.

What once seemed like it would be the GOP's race to lose, or at the very least a spirited general election contest, has seen Mitt Romney and what remained of his party's brand deconstructed and defenstrated. To put it in Yogi-Berra parlance, for the Romney Campaign,"it got late early out there."

Sure Santorum is technically gone, but he'll be with Romney for the rest of this race. Every time the former Massachusetts Governor has to answer to independent women in the Milwaukee or Philadelphia suburbs about why he'd "get rid" of Planned Parenthood," and explain to Latino families in Las Vegas and Phoenix why he'd "veto" the Dream Act, the ever-cherubic apparition of Santorum will be smiling gaily over his shoulder.

There is no doubt that some things are beyond Romney's control. The falling unemployment rate. The Dow's hitting and now hovering around 13,000. The delay in creating those 3 jobs building the car elevator thingy that takes you to the stadium-sized basement in Romney's 3rd house. These were all unexpected.

But not putting Santorum away early even while outspending him like 9:1, so that the social-issue firebrand could stick around and pull the primary so far right that Vladimir Zhirinovsky would have seemed moderate. Mitt has only himself and his severely marvelous personality to thank for that.

The end result—because of Santorum's squatting in the race as long as he did, while taking a rhetorical hatchet to Romney in much the same language as Democrats have—Romney is so unpopular right now if his dog Seamus were still around he might put Romney in the dog kennel on top of the car.

According to CNN polling, the Governor will be the only presidential candidate since 1996 to exit the primaries with a net negative approval rating. If you want the thumbnail sketch, just take a look at North Carolina.

This is a state President Obama barely won in 2008, bringing it into swing state territory for the first time in a generation of electing right-winger Jesse Helms to the Senate consistently. Changing demographics have moved the state to the Left, no doubt, but going into this election most observers would call it a lean-Republican state if they were being honest.

Yet, at this point, Obama is up 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent. But it is the internals of this poll, which must look to Romney like they've been infected by Ebola, that tell the story of how badly Romney is doing. He only is viewed positively by 29 percent of voters in the Tarheel State, with a whopping 58 percent viewing him unfavorably.

Basically, he'd have to make a pretty steep climb just to reach the favorability level of Kanye West, or Encephalitis.

It is not over yet for Romney, as there are many unpredictable things that can happen (think terrorist attack, economic crash, or mass hypnosis of American voters). But one thing is for sure—he'd better start Etch A Sketching, stat.

This piece was first published at Al Jazeera English



Newt Gingrich Bounces $500 Check to Get on Utah Ballot

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From this point forward, Newt Gingrich can no longer position himself as a candidate that tackle the economic issues of this country. The man can't even balance his own damn checkbook:

Five Republicans have filed the necessary papers and $500 fee to qualify for the June 26 Utah presidential primary election, but with Rick Santorum dropping out of the race Tuesday, only four will be on the ballot.

Or possibly three.

Newt Gingrich’s check bounced.

Utah Elections Director Mark Thomas said a designated agent for the Gingrich campaign brought the filing papers and a check for $500 in March, but the state was notified by the bank that the check had bounced. He said the office has tried to contact the Gingrich campaign through the telephone number and email provided on the application, but has not received a response.

Awkward! So let me get this straight: he can be given a revolving credit account at Tiffany's in the six figures but $500 to get on a ballot is too much? Man, when Sheldon Adelson withdraws his support, he really withdraws his support. You'd think Newtie could just up the number of his $50-a-pop photo ops and raise the funds, but I guess there isn't quite the demand he hoped for. So much for supply-side economics, eh, Newt?

Gingrich has until the 20th of this month to re-pay the fee or be left off the ballot. For his part, Gingrich pooh-poohed the problem as a "goofy mistake" and assured the Elections Department that the money is on the way. Presumably, Utah is demanding a certified check this time.

By the way, this isn't exactly the first time Gingrich has had a hard time controlling the checkbook:

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Marco Rubio Wants to Be Vice President

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Move over, Paul Ryan, there's someone else applying for the job of Willard's sidekick.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a rising star in the Republican Party and a favorite among conservatives to round out the party's ticket this fall, endorsed Mitt Romney for president on Wednesday evening.

Rubio's endorsement is a marker of support that many candidates had sought. It comes at a point in the campaign at which Romney has sought to coalesce Republicans behind his candidacy.

"I don't have a problem with primaries, but I think we're at a stage now where at least two of the candidates have admitted that the only way to get the nomination is to have a floor fight at the convention," Rubio said before announcing his support for Romney on Fox News.

Now as everyone's known for weeks, Willard's got this thing wrapped up. So there's only one reason for Rubio to endorse at this point. In fact, it could be argued that if he doesn't want on the ticket, this is a really dumb move, because it diminishes his Teahadist street cred.

A year ago, Rubio seemed like a smart pick for Willard, but now I'm not so sure. His "screw you I got mine" approach to immigration won't buy the GOP many much-needed Latino votes and his little fib about his background didn't help his marketability.

At this point, my money's still on Ryan, Pawlenty ... or George Zimmerman.



No, Rick, it's not the government's job to create jobs. It's the government's duty to prevent you from getting contraceptives, to insert vaginal ultrasound probes to make you rethink your decision to have an abortion, and to subsidize your tuition at a for-profit charter school! (Oh, and to do the bidding of what his pals in Opus Dei and C Street tell him to do.) Seriously, that crap may play in the far-right fringe voters that make up your party's primary voters, but you really think the rest of the country wants to hear that particular tune?

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum said in Illinois on Monday that he was not concerned about the unemployment rate because it wasn’t the government’s duty to create jobs.

“We need a candidate who’s going to be a fighter for freedom,” he said during a campaign speech, “who is going to get up and make that the central theme in this race because it is the central theme in this race.”

“I don’t care what the unemployment rate’s going to be,” he continued. “Doesn’t matter to me. My campaign doesn’t hinge on unemployment rates and growth rates. It’s something more foundational that’s going on. We have one nominee who says he wants to run the economy. What kind of conservative says that the president runs the economy? What conservative says I’m the guy, because of my economic experience, that can create jobs?”

“I don’t know. We conservatives generally think that government doesn’t create jobs. That what government does is create an atmosphere for jobs to be created in the private sector.”

"Doesn't matter to me"? Spoken like someone collecting a big fat wingnut-welfare paycheck.



John McCain: Romney Might Be Too Damaged to Win in 2012

Willard may have had a big night on Tuesday, but the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, who's a Willard supporter, is still downgrading his chances of beating President Obama.

“This is like watching a Greek tragedy,” McCain told the Boston Herald, saying that negative campaigning and increasingly personal attacks “should have stopped long ago.”

See, when I watch the 2012 GOP primary, I don't think Greek Tragedy. I think "Three Stooges."

“Any utility from the debates has been exhausted, and now it’s just exchanging cheap shots and personal shots followed by super PAC attacks,” said the senior senator from Arizona, one of two states with primaries today.

[...]

I know he’s going to be the nominee, but I also worry about how much damage has been done,” McCain said.

And if there's anyone who knows about doing damage to your presidential aspirations, it's John McCain.

But for the record, the reason the GOP primary's been so ugly is because it's not a campaign of ideas. It's an ideological purity test. Instead of Lincoln-Douglas, the GOP is giving us the Salem Witch Trials.

McCain is right to be worried. Witch hunts usually don't end well.



Sarah Palin Now Totally Irrelevant in National Politics

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Well, it's official. The Quitter's done.

On Monday night, she went on Faux News and begged Florida Republicans to vote Gingrich.

PALIN: You gotta rage against the machine at this point in order to defend our republic and save what is good and prosperous about our nation...So, if for no other reason, rage against the machine -- vote for Newt! Annoy a liberal -- vote Newt! Keep this vetting process going, keep the debate going.

Yes, annoy a liberal -- vote Newt. Because, as everyone knows, what liberals fear the most is a protracted, bloody Republican primary followed by the thrice-married, ethically challenged, hugely unpopular Gingrich facing Obama in November.

That would be so annoying!

Anyway, Florida Republicans apparently don't give a damn what The Quitter thinks -- because after her shrill pleas, Willard promptly kicked Newt's ample butt.

I blame the liberal media, the GOP establishment -- and also, too, ACORN.



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On This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Republican strategists Mary Matalin and Nicole Wallace spin, spin, spin about the GOP primaries. Is Mitt Romney the inevitable nominee or, as Jake Tapper seems to think, will Newt Gingrich force a floor fight in Tampa? Stay tuned:

STEPHANOPOULOS: Everyone's in place right now. George Will off today, but we're happy to welcome Republican strategist Mary Matalin, Eliot Spitzer, the former governor of New York, but, Eliot and Mary, you also host "Both Sides Now," a new radio show. Glad to have you here today. We also have Nicolle Wallace, Republican strategist, veteran of the Bush White House, McCain campaign, Austan Goolsbee, the former chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, and our own White House correspondent, Jake Tapper.

Welcome to all of you. And, Mary, let me begin where Lindsey Graham left off in this delegate hunt in the Republican primary. Let me show the board right now. You see 454 delegates for Mitt Romney, more than double what Rick Santorum has right now. Is Romney right, is the campaign right when they say it's going to take an act of God? Lindsey Graham seemed to pretty much say so, yes.

MATALIN: I wouldn't throw God into this equation at this point, given what's happened. But Mitt Romney's won the most states, he has the most delegates, he has the best organization, he has the most money. He's -- he's getting it done where he needs to get it done. He's the only candidate that's broke 40 percent. I mean, he's just getting better. He's closing better.

STEPHANOPOULOS: How does this end?

MATALIN: It just -- well, let me say this, that it goes on is not a bad thing. That is a big myth, that 90 -- the last campaign of y'alls, the liberal campaign, they went into June and Hillary was screaming at Obama for being an elitist, for talking about bitter clingers, and saying shame on you, Barack, so, you know, that went into June, they did fine. The short campaign is not necessarily a good campaign. McCain and Kerry were the last nominees from a short campaign. So I think it goes on. I don't think that's bad.

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