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On Sunday's McLaughlin Group, Pat Buchanan laid odds on the Bush Administration attacking Iran before the election. October surprise, anyone?

Buchanan: The president is right in a sense, and so is Petraeus. We were on the brink of defeat in 2006 and disaster, and we were looking into the abyss…

Clift: We still are.

Buchanan: That’s no longer true. We have held off defeat. But Petraeus is right, we don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel. But I’ll tell you what’s coming, John: Petraeus pointed right at the special groups, supported by Iran as the main problem now, said they’re firing rockets into the Green Zone. They’re responsible for Basra. The president said Iran better not make the wrong choice. We are looking at 140,000 troops here at the end of the year and very possibly, air strikes on Iran before this fall.

Buchanan isn't channeling Miss Cleo on this one, the Petraeus testimony before Congress mentioned Iran in nearly every other sentence. The rhetoric ramping up against Iran is almost identical to the rhetoric we heard about the threat that Saddam posed six years ago. And the threat that Iran poses is similar to Iraq's, which is to say not much. And certainly not at the level that the Saudis have supported the insurgents. And yet everyone in the media repeats the Big Lie that Iran is our biggest threat in Iraq.