In the 1880s and 1890s, a prairie wildfire swept through American politics. The generation of pioneers that had taken the risk to head out west and take advantage of Abe Lincoln’s Homestead Act, where our government literally gave away free land to any poor and working class people, had successfully battled terrible weather and intense loneliness. They had worked their butts off to become farmers and ranchers, and made a good life for themselves. But when railroad barons, Wall Street bankers, and oil monopolists began to squeeze them and make it tougher and tougher to make a living farming and ranching, they rose up and started organizing a populist movement that changed American politics and policies. States like the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma rebelled against pro-big business politicians, and much of what they demanded- breaking up the big corporate trusts, tougher financial regulations, easier credit, Social Security, a minimum wage, an 8 hour work day and no child labor, women’s suffrage, stronger labor unions- eventually became incorporated in the reforms of the Progressive era of the early 1900s and the New Deal of the 1930s.

Eventually, though, those Plains States became much more conservative, and are now among the reddest of the red states politically. Something is going on out there, though. In this strange political year, where most pundits and historical trends suggest that it is likely to be a Republican year, the Plains States are shaking things up. While it isn’t exactly like the Populist movement of old, there is a growing rebellion in these states that suggests the current brand of extreme conservatism may not be going down so well in these normally Republican states.

In Oklahoma, the Republican Governor Mary Fallin is having a surprisingly tough time winning what was expected to be a very easy re-election campaign. In 4 of the 7 public polls taken over the last several weeks, she has been under 50%, and in 2 she has been right at 50%. Her Democratic opponent Joe Dorman has an internal poll out last week showing him down only 2 points, 47-45. And the RGA is worried enough that they have been spending quite a bit of money there.

In North Dakota, where Democrat Heidi Heitkamp shocked the punditry by pulling off a come-from-behind upset in 2012, the House race is one of the hottest in the country, with recent polling from Mark Mellman showing George Sinner up 42-40 over the incumbent Kevin Cramer, who is a far right extremist.

In my home state of Nebraska, the open seat Governor’s race is very competitive, with prairie populist Chuck Hassebrook within 7 points in the latest public poll of close friend of the Koch brothers (He spoke at their secret meeting in June), Pete Ricketts. Hassebrook has spent his career advocating for small farmers and small town businesses at the Center for Rural Affairs, while Ricketts’ Koch-style extremism has gotten him into hot water. (First bias alert: Hassebrook is a long time friend.) Meanwhile, the Democrat running for the House in the Omaha district, Brad Ashford, is in a dead heat race with Republican incumbent Lee Terry.

In Kansas, as anyone following politics has become aware of in recent weeks, both incumbent Republican Governor Sam Brownback and incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts are in very deep trouble, with high unfavorability numbers and trailing consistently in the polls. The Roberts campaign has been awful, but a big part of the reason for the problems these Republicans are having is that Brownback’s extreme tax and spending cut agenda have badly alienated voters.

Finally in South Dakota, in a race long written off by many pundits and national Democrats, support for Republican Mike Rounds has been collapsing in a 4 way race, and Democrat Rick Weiland (2nd bias alert, Rick is also a good friend whose campaign I am helping) is now close enough in the polling that both the DSCC and several progressive groups are putting real money into the state to help him. Rick is running a classic folksy prairie populist campaign against big money, including writing his own lyrics and singing songs like this one on the campaign trail: