"Polymarket has a political futures contract on whether Sen. J.D. Vance will remain as Donald Trump’s running mate." noted Political Wire this morning. I think the odds of that happening are 0%, but some people don't and are willing to put up real money that it will happen, despite the implications of such a decision.

We shall see.

Source: Business Insider

Sen. JD Vance of Ohio has had a rough week and a half since he was announced as former President Donald Trump's vice-presidential candidate. While Trump insists he's sticking with Vance, the senator's poor polling combined with Vice President Kamala Harris' momentum has led some to ask: Could Trump replace Vance? And if so, how would it work? For those wondering, the answers lie in recent history and the fine print of Republican Party rules.

It's still technically possible that Trump could choose a new No. 2. But such a decision would have to happen very soon.

The Democratic and Republican National Committees have separate rules governing how they fill vacancies of presidential or vice-presidential nominees. Under Rule 9, the Republican National Committee explains how it fills a vice-presidential vacancy "which may occur as the result of death, declination, or otherwise."

The rule allows the party to reconvene its national convention if it chooses or to move ahead with a vote of the smaller group of Republican National Committee members who would determine Vance's replacement.

So, while technically possible, it would be "extraordinarily disruptive," if not suicidal.

Crucially, the rule explicitly applies to a scenario in which Vance voluntarily steps aside, says Kenneth Mayer, a recently retired political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He told BI there was no precedent for forcibly ripping the nomination away from a vice-presidential candidate after the convention.

Mayer also said impending state deadlines posed a significant issue, and the complications would only snowball once ballots were printed. It would be, he said, "extraordinarily disruptive" both logistically and politically to replace Vance as the vice-presidential nominee.

One only needs to look at the Thomas Eagleton example in 1972 where Democrat George McGovern replaced him after only 18 days. McGovern went on to lose the election in a historic landslide and the electoral vote, 520-17.

Whatever happens, JD Vance is already making history, just not in a good way.