On Sunday, a leaked internal memo from the top GOP super PAC painted a grim picture for their Senate prospects. This morning, bright and early, another leaked memo (i.e., damage control) appeared from the NRSC that mostly contradicted their previous numbers and painted a far rosier picture for the Senate prospects.

So why does any of this matter? Well, for donors, it matters where to put their money, which candidates are realistic bets, and which are longshots. More importantly, though, it also feeds the narrative they want to set. The Fox News report above uses the much rosier numbers for their forecast, when most objective forecasters have a gain of one seat, (as well as West Virginia), for a 51-49 Senate, not a 51-47 Senate with a couple of toss-ups.

Source: Politico

The top GOP super PAC charged with flipping the Senate has found that most of its candidates are trailing their Democratic opponents, according to an internal polling memo obtained by POLITICO.

The new round of October polling from the Senate Leadership Fund shows all but one Republican candidate running behind Donald Trump in battleground states, a pattern that could sharply limit their ability to build a sizable majority unless they can force a change in the election's final weeks.

Republicans are still favored to take control of the chamber, and their data brought some hopeful news with tightening races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But other pickup opportunities, namely Maryland and Michigan, are moving in the wrong direction. And Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, one of the two incumbents running in a state Trump won in 2020, looks surprisingly strong in Ohio.

That was Sunday. This is what showed up on Tuesday.

Source: Politico

On Sunday, POLITICO obtained a memo that contained a trove of polling top lines in every major race compiled for donors by the Senate Leadership Fund, the top Senate Republican super PAC. Those numbers showed Republican candidates trailing in most battleground contests. Now we’ve got a second leaked polling memo, this one from the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

It complicates — and sharpens — the picture of the map.

The two groups spend hundreds of millions on TV ads and thousands on polling to ascertain an accurate view of the overall landscape. And their data largely agree in a few states: Montana is trending their way, while Nevada, Arizona, and Maryland are not.

But their internal numbers and public polling diverge in four places: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

What seems most plausible is that the first set was legitimately leaked and the second set conveniently leaked to try and fix the embarrassment caused. Or, because it's Republicans, it's all some weird psyops that no one else understands but them to confuse the opposition. Regardless, if I were to bet, it would be on the former, not the latter scenario.

Some comments on the first batch.

There is nothing that stands out to me as too extreme, though Republicans wouldn't be happy with Michigan or Ohio, and Democrats wouldn't be thrilled with either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. But these are leaked internal numbers. Take with the requisite grains of salt, indeed.

And here are today's numbers. The first document is nine pages long and detailed, while this latest one looks like it was scribbled on a cocktail napkin. They don't even bother to include the topline numbers for Maryland, so make of it what you will.