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Preview Of Alabama And Mississippi Primaries

State: Alabama Type of election: Primary How it works: 47 delegates are up for grabs. 26 are given proportionally according to statewide results, the remaining 21 are given out at the congressional district level. If any candidate gets more

By Kenneth Quinnell
03/13/12 06:00 am

State: Alabama

Type of election: Primary

How it works: 47 delegates are up for grabs. 26 are given proportionally according to statewide results, the remaining 21 are given out at the congressional district level. If any candidate gets more than 50 percent, the delegates are given out winner-take-all. The primary is open.

Official election results: Alabama Secretary of State

Republican candidates: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (all others have dropped out or are polling at less than 1 percent)

Democratic candidates: There is no Democratic primary.

Previous performance: In 2008, Romney finished third to Mike Huckabee with nearly 18 percent. Paul finished fourth with less than 3 percent. Obama won the Democratic primary with 56 percent.

Newspapers: Birmingham News, full list

Television stations: Full list

Progressive blogs: Left in Alabama

Latest polling: New York Times:

  • PPP: Romney 31 percent, Gingrich 30, Santorum 29, Paul 8
  • ARG: Gingrich 34, Romney 31, Santorum 24, Paul 6
  • Rasmussen: Gingrich 30, Santorum 29, Romney 38, Paul 7
  • Alabama State U.: Gingrich 21, Romney 20, Santorum 17
  • Capital Survey: Romney 30, Gingrich 25, Santorum 20, Paul 6

    Nate Silver gives Gingrich a 48 percent chance of winning, followed by Romney at 39 percent, and Santorum at 13.

    Bottom line: Those are the most competitive numbers we've seen yet from Silver and it appears like this one is going down to the wire. A win by Romney would help him get over his "can't win in the South" concerns and could give him a big boost. A loss for Gingrich is disastrous.

    State: Mississippi

    Type of election: Primary

    How it works: 37 delegates are up for grabs. 25 are awarded proportionately according to the statewide results and the other 12 are awarded by congressional district.

    Official election results: Mississippi Secretary of State

    Republican candidates: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (all others have dropped out or are polling at less than 1 percent)

    Democratic candidates: There is no Democratic primary.

    Previous performance: In 2008, Romney finished fourth in the primary, despite having dropped out of the race, getting 1.5 percent of the vote. Paul finished third with just under four percent. Obama won the Democratic primary with over 61 percent.

    Newspapers: Jackson Clarion-Ledger, full list

    Television stations: Full list

    Progressive blogs: A Liberal in the Midst

    Latest polling: New York Times

  • PPP: Gingrich 33 percent, Romney 31, Santorum 27, Paul 7
  • ARG: Romney 34, Gingrich 32, Santorum 22, Paul 8
  • Rasmussen: Romney 35, Gingrich 27, Santorum 27, Paul 6

    Nate Silver also rates Mississippi as very competitive, giving Romney a 53 percent chance, Gingrich 45 percent and Santorum 2 percent.

    Bottom line: A sweep of the Southern states would put Romney in very good position and losses by Gingrich would hurt him quite a bit. Santorum appears to be fading and Paul is as irrelevant as ever.

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