Don't Believe The Spin. Voters Want Change, Not Centrism
Don't believe what pundits say about today's elections.
Cuccinelli's anti-women behavior may have earned him the title of Republican Party Id. If so, that will have to do, since he's not likely to win the title of "Governor." It turns out that most voters agree with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who said she was "sick of debating the social issues like it's 1913, not 2013."
That doesn't mean Virginia voters are buying what Terry McAuliffe is selling. They have anegative opinion of both Cuccinelli and McAuliffe. The good news for McAuliffe, such as it is, is that he's less disliked than his opponent. His latest rating was 42% favorable versus 45% unfavorable, which is less negative than that of the deeply disliked Mr. Cuccinelli.
That's hardly what George W. Bush used to call "a mandate to govern."
A Helluva Town
That won't stop the spinmeisters from telling us that the Virginia election points the way to "a new Democratic strategy aimed at the center," or some such phrase. They'll tell us to ignore a progressive populist's overwhelming victory in New York City, and will insist that Virginia's results are a sign that voters want a "centrist," corporatist Democratic Party.
The opposite is true: New York City, not Virginia, is the real test case. It was in the Democratic primary there that voters were given a choice between a truly "bipartisan" candidate, Christine Quinn, and the genuinely populist and progressive Bill de Blasio. De Blasio prevailed and is now about to soar to a decisive victory against the Republican in the general election.
The insiders will insist that New York City elections can tell us nothing about future trends, because it's an atypical population. But there are large urban centers in every swing state in America. Statewide and nationwide races are won and lost every election year because of factors like turnout and margins of victory within large cities.
New York City tried the insiders' kind of bipartisanship. In fact, it hasn't elected a Democratic mayor in twenty years. Now, after two decades of Republican-flavored centrism, they are rejecting the "centrist" agenda in favor of genuine progressive populism.
Boss
They'll also tell us that Chris Christie's reelection in New Jersey is a win for "bipartisanship." But there's a simpler explanation for his victory.
Anybody who's followed his career knows that Chris Christie doesn't win by "reaching across the aisle," unless he does it with one hand in a fist and the other wrapped around a dollar bill.
Chris Christie will win because he's an extraordinarily gifted politician. He'll also win because he uses the powers of the Governor's office to reward his friends and punish his enemies.
Christie's blend of clubhouse dealmaking and tough-guy charisma wasn't invented by the Democratic Leadership Committee. It dates back a lot further than that. He's an old-style political boss, and he's very good at it.
Progressive Ideas Win.
Barack Obama won the Presidency in 2008 by rejecting old-style triangulating Democratic politics. He embraced it after his election, however, and the Democrats went down to defeat the 2010 congressional elections. Obama positioned himself as a centrist in 2011 in early 2012, until plunging poll numbers convinced him to pivot back toward the populist policies Washington associates with "the Left."
He was re-elected as a result.
Poll after poll has reported that Americans want more done on jobs. They want higher taxes for the wealthy and corporations. They want more educational opportunity, more social mobility, and more confidence in their economic future. These are policy planks that win.
What's more, the voting population is changing. Even the deep Southern states are seeing growth in the numbers of unmarried women, young people, Hispanics, and African-Americans on the voting rolls. These groups have come to be known as the "Rising American Electorate."
Democrat vs. Democrat
This is not the United States of the 1990s. The politics of that bygone era don't work anymore.
The Republican Party is, not to put too fine a point on it, going insane. That's an opportunity for Democrats. Will their party run with an uninspiring and unpopular "centrist" agenda, and pray that their opponents will always be as incompetent as Cuccinelli? Or will they build an agenda for the future, based on the world - and the electorate - as it exists today and will be tomorrow?
There's something else Democrats should remember - something which was proved by Barack Obama's upset victory in 2008, something that was demonstrated by the victories of Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Jeff Merkley in Oregon.
To paraphrase another old saying: In a race between a Democrat and a Democrat, the Democrat wins every time.