Poll Indicates Dems Could Win 'Sizable Majority' In 2014

Election pickup opportunities in 49 of 61 districts.

A new survey of 25 GOP-held districts shows dwindling favorability for Republican members of the House in the wake of the recent government shutdown.

The survey, conducted by Public Policy Polling and funded by MoveOn.org, is the third in a series of polls that indicate Democrats have a shot at taking back the House of Representatives in the 2014 election cycle.

The results of the latest survey show that incumbent Republicans in 15 of the 25 districts polled trail generic Democratic candidates. When combined with the results of the previous surveys, the polls show that generic Democratic candidates lead in 37 of 61 GOP-held districts.

When voters were informed their Republican candidate supported the government shutdown, 11 more districts flipped and one race became a tie.

Democrats in the House only need to see a net increase of 17 seats in order to take back the majority. This poll indicates that Democrats could see an increase of as many as 49 seats.

Public Policy Polling indicated several caveats to the results. The surveys were conducted during a high-profile budget crisis debate, a year before the elections will take place. And incumbent Republican candidates were compared to "generic Democrats," who may not represent the actual candidates each district will see.

The districts surveyed this week in which a generic Democratic challenger leads prior to any information being provided about the shutdown are:

CA-39, CA-49, CO-03, FL-07, FL-15, FL-25, IL-06, MI-03, NJ-05, NJ-11, OH-15,OH-16, PA-16, VA-05, WI-06

The additional districts in which a generic Democratic challenger leads or ties after voters are told the Republican incumbent supported a shutdown are:

MI-04, NJ-07, NY-22, OH-10, VA-04, WI-08

The districts in which the incumbent Republican leads throughout the survey are:

IL-16, OH-01, PA-15, VA-01

"Congressional Republicans' decision to shut down the government in an effort to thwart majority rule and repeal health care reform has hurt our economy, and this polling shows it has also led many voters to abandon their support for the GOP," said Ilya Sheyman, Executive Director of MoveOn.org. "The American people are sick and tired of Tea Party Republicans' extreme agenda and are ready to hold them accountable next November. Democrats need to seize this opportunity by recruiting strong progressive candidates and by resisting the Tea Party's harmful agenda of Social Security and Medicare benefit cuts."

Recent polls conducted by the Pew Research Center and NBC/Wall Street Journal are consistent with the survey's claim that the Republican party took a hit from the fiscal crisis. Pew found that more Americans blamed Republicans for the shutdown, and NBC/Wall Street Journal found that the Republican party was "badly damaged" by it.

Even more bad news for the GOP, is a new CNN/ORC International poll:

"According to the survey, 54% say it's a bad thing that the GOP controls the House, up 11 points from last December, soon after the 2012 elections when the Republicans kept control of the chamber. Only 38% say it's a good thing the GOP controls the House, a 13-point dive from the end of last year.

This is the first time since the Republicans won back control of the House in the 2010 elections that a majority say their control of the chamber is bad for the country."

And especially for Speaker of the House, John Boehner, the poll further states:

"And the CNN/ORC International survey also indicates that more than six in 10 Americans say that Speaker of the House John Boehner should be replaced."

With no indication whatsoever that the House GOP intends to change any of their strategy, get used to saying "Speaker Pelosi" once again.

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About Diane Sweet

Diane Sweet's picture
Senior Editor, Lives in a gerrymandered district in Michigan.

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