Even the optimists are pessimistic
Stephen Biddle probably isn’t a household name, but he’s a pretty serious player on foreign policy. Biddle is not only a senior defense policy analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, but he’s also served as an advisor to Gen. David Petraeus.
And how does he see the future of Iraq playing out? Marc Lynch, by way of Kevin Drum, explains that Biddle's vision for the future isn't exactly encouraging:
Without getting in to his arguments or my reservations, I just wanted to lay out Biddle's best case scenario as he presented it: if everything goes right and if the US continues to "hit the lottery" with the spread of local ceasefires and none of a dozen different spoilers happens, then a patchwork of local ceasefires between heavily armed, mistrustful communities could possibly hold if and only if the US keeps 80,000-100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years. And that's the best case scenario of one of the current strategy's smartest supporters.
Remember, Buddle's one of the optimists. This is a best-case scenario.
Well, in all honesty, the Iraq invasion and subsequent occupation weren't about the officially stated goals of nation building, bringing freedom and democracy to Iraq and above all, ridding the country of WMD. No, the real goals were:
1. Removal of Saddam from power
2. Taking full control over Iraq's natural resources
3. Funneling billions of dollars to private corporations
4. Establishing a permanent U.S. military presence in that area of the M.E.
In that regard, the 'project' has been a complete success.
From that perspective, pessimist, are those who point out both the death toll on either side and the damage to both the Iraqi and U.S. economies.
First!
Cheney @ 1:
For once Cheney speaks the truth. (note quote system cumbersome).
The fool!! Giving them a "twenty to thirty year" timeline just emboldens the enemy and encourages them to "wait us out"! Why does he want America to lose the war on terror!?!
Hey, it is promising. At least they are telling us there really is light at the end of the tunnel. Me thinks we need to turn around and the open air is but a few steps away.
Just heard that bush's top White House adviser on terrorism and homeland security, Fran Townsend has resigned.
MSNBC has the story.
I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing. I guess it depends on the reasons.
Who the hell knows how or when this insane war will really end, if ever? They are for now spinning positive reports to try to make the Dems who want to end this thing look like they had no confidence in the troops. Hell, it may work too.
Let's see, the Optimists are pessimistic, the Pessimists are realistic, and the Realists are non-existent in the Bush administration.
But the Iraq war plans are being met, after all, if you start an eternal war, you must expect it to last a while.
And if there are enormous costs, in troop's lives and maimings, and innocent collateral deaths and destruction, and gigantic financial costs and lost opportunities for 'homeland' improvement, well, they are bearable if you ignore them, and keep your eyes on your balls as they wither away.
That's the republican way.
pissed off patricia @ 7:
I heard she was rushed to the Emergency Room after gagging on the latest load of crap she was asked to regurgitate.
Preacher Boob @ 9:
Condi said we'd be there for a generation - don't you remember?
100,000 troops in Iraq for the next twenty to thirty years?
Fuck that!
They will want to stay there until they have used up all of their resouces. Oil?
So, when does the mass tax protest start?
Marching in the streets is OBVIOUSLY a complete waste of time.
Take away the income and you'll see some action.
Well people, it's tax time again.
What are you going to do?
The United States army will only leave Iraq if it's forced out. According to Wikipedia: U.S. forces in Germany, 62 years after WW2, 17 years after the end of the cold war =75,602. U.S. forces in Japan = 40, 045. South Korea = 29,086. U.S. forces in Italy = 10,449. U.S. forces in United Kingdom = 10,331. U.S. forces on active duty based in U.S. = 1,112,684. As of May 5, 2007 there were 160,000 troops deployed in Iraq and another engaged elsewhere in the Middle East. There are over 165,000 troops parked in countries that have no need of them except as garrison keepers. Is anyone threatening Italy? Britain? Japan? Why are those troops there? The only logical reason is that they are manning the outposts of the American empire. Read Chalmers Johnson's excellent trilogy: Blowback: The Costs and Consequences of American Empire, The Sorrows of Empire: Militarism, Secrecy and the End of the Republic, and Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic.
If Hillary and Guiliani are our choices then this scenario is likely. We hang on with 80,000 to 100,000 troops until the finances destroy America. What happens when the interest on the national debt exceeds revenue? Things that can't go on forever don't.
20 to 30 years? That should keep the oil flowing untill it runs out.
Aaron @ 2:
You must be next in line to be the President's Press Secretary.
Silly,nieve,uninformed Americans, the White House would love to bring the troups home before the elections.
The big problem is that the Chinese will not loan the White House the money to bring them home.
All this mess just for OIL.
the beltway bumpkins are always ready to make pravda butter and jelly sandwiches for the sheeple. They want us there until 3000 CE
I tell ya, the Democrats in 2037 are really gonna have to put their foot down and demand some accountability or this thing could get out of control.
As part 2 of yesterday's article on the Impeachment Resolution, I have submitted a Summery of the Resolution itself.
It is very important that we understand exactly what the charges against the Vice President are in the resolution, and that we know the evidence is included in the resolution.
Please check it out, and copy it and use it where ever you need to.
http://willyloman.wordpress.com/2007/11/19/summery-of-kucinichs-impeachm...
Never mind, the rapture will be here soon..
who is paying for his advice?
this just how FUCKING STUPID all these bastards are. the American public will
never allow this to happen.......there will be a new revolution and we have the
blessings of the constitution to do it.
Best case scenario is Saudi Arabia fights their own goddamn war to keep the sunnis in control of some of the oil wells instead of us. Kurdistan becomes a protectorate of Turkey (for some of the Kurd oil).
Let the supposedly united "Islamists" finally duke it out to see if the Shia or Sunni get to have most of the oil. Let's quit standing in the middle so they can pretend it is about America, when it's 90% about greed, 9% about religion, and 1% about Persian vs. Arab. I watched all the interviews with the Iranian government officials... the smarmy bastards want war just as much as Bush does to consolidate power. Let them fight el Queso, the Wahhabis, and the Sunni instead. Oil prices will drop as they increase production to fuel their wars.
I'll be more than happy to walk to work and burn wood for fuel here at home.
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