Experts: Debt Default Is Restoring Country's Economic Health
Who could have guessed? Apparently all those people losing their homes are helping the economy recover faster than expected. So let's look on the bright side of all those homeless, helpless families:
The pain of millions of people across America losing their homes hardly inspires confidence in the future. But in a brutal way, it could be restoring the financial health of the U.S. consumer faster than many recognize.
One of the biggest clouds on the economic horizon is the vast amount of debt U.S. households took on during the boom years. The Federal Reserve puts total household debt, including mortgage debt, at about $13.7 trillion, or 125% of annual after-tax income, a burden that many economists believe will take several years to pare down to what they see as a more sustainable level of 100%. During that "deleveraging" process, the logic goes, U.S. consumers -- whose spending makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy and about one-fifth of the global economy -- won't be able to play a leading role in any recovery.
The gloomy forecasts, though, miss an important point: Debts have value only to the extent that they are being paid, and a rapidly rising number of U.S. households aren't doing so. Those defaults are leading to losses at banks, a wave of foreclosures, trouble for neighborhoods and strife for families. But they are also providing an immediate, albeit radical, form of debt relief.
"It's not ideal, because it carries other costs," said Karen Dynan, a consumer-finance specialist at the liberal Brookings Institution think tank who recently served as a senior adviser to the Federal Reserve. But it is "going to help get household balance sheets back to the right place."
If one accounts for defaults, U.S. households' debt burden is shrinking a lot faster than the official data suggest. First American CoreLogic, which tracks the performance of mortgage loans, estimates that some 9.3% of the nation's 52.4 million mortgage holders were 60 or more days behind on their payments as of July. That represents relief on about $1.2 trillion in loans. The official data miss most of that, because the Fed doesn't erase debts until banks have foreclosed, sold the homes and taken the loans off their books, a process that can drag out for more than a year.
As a result, some economists are expecting a sharp improvement as widely watched indicators of consumers' finances catch up to reality. Joseph Carson, director of global economic research at AllianceBernstein, expects the share of households' after-tax income that goes to pay loans, rent and other financial obligations to fall to 16.3% by the middle of next year, well below the average for the 20-year period leading up to the housing boom. As of June, it stood at 18.1%.
"It's part of the cleansing process of a downturn," he said. "And it's happening a lot faster than people realize."




That's only profitable if no programs are created to help the homeless
And to pay for those programs will require taxes
On those who still have jobs
Causing those who own the companies to offset their taxes
By raising prices
And cutting jobs
Thus causing more defaults
And the band plays on...
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
excise taxes, tobacco and liquor taxes and fuel taxes, are rising sharply and will continue to rise for years to come at double digit rates.
The rich are able to maintain their wealth at the expense of the poor.
The band plays on . . .
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow
man, and I hate people like that! " ~ Tom Lehrer (1928 - )
as is the thesis.
funny, in this instance, we see the "market" at work.
but the people that are really behind the massive meltdown get to socialize their losses. how fortunate for them..
Kinda like your plane crashing in the Andes and your soccer teammates eat you so they can survive.
Vote GOP and move forward to the 18th Century.
the pilot eats you
"It's part of the cleansing process of a downturn," he said. "And it's happening a lot faster than people realize."
what a novel new way of repackaging losing ones home in a default into a cheery positive thing.
nothing like getting taken to the cleaners i guess.
... if having the average American lose their home accelerates recovery, then let's put a few millionaires (including Senator John "Eight Is Enough" McCain) on the street and really speed things up.
debt forgiveness, on its face, annoys the hell out of me. i have always lived within my means, and paid off my debts as quickly as possible. that said, i understand how people get in over their heads, indeed are encouraged to do so. therefore i can see the reasonableness of debt forgiveness. what i would implore, is that more strict guidelines be instituted for credit extension. we all have to share this debt, and i do not like the idea of being responsible for the debts of others.
How do you feel about having given the Bankers trillions of dollars to replenish their coffers, depleted as they were, through defaulted loans, many of which were fraudulent?
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
"we all have to share this debt"
Why?
The rich fucks and their politician whores caused this mess, they're the ones that should pay to clean it up.
There was a way to take these poor indebted souls and just kill them?
Maybe if we concentrated them into camps for the poor . . .
If we can just slough off these deadbeats. . .
And by deadbeats I mean the effin BANKS!
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow
man, and I hate people like that! " ~ Tom Lehrer (1928 - )
Camps for the poor - I like it.
Additionally, if we could put them to work, maybe "pay" them some nominal rate that could be applied to their outstanding balances so that the bankers would not be put out too, too much, that would *really* help the economy. Especially if the bankers could keep their bonus checks flowing, 'cause that would trickle back down on the rest of us.
If we can only keep the super-rich, super rich, everything will be all right.
Good news, the amazing yet to appear shrinking debt.
Sounds like a B horror flick. Guess I'll have a warm downturn cleaning process and eat some bad credit for breakfast.
“Why would anyone with a functioning brain believe this guy?”
Some guy with an eating disorder
Sounds like a sequel to "The Incredible Jobless Recovery".
...why doesnt Obama take away all the money taxpayers have given to Goldman Sachs?
...whats good for the goose is good for the gander....
audit-prosecute-incarcerate
who knew that C&L is a bunch of closet austrian economists?
what's next, a donation drive for ron paul?
...slowly awakening.
why just recently Obama "threatened to take away inurance companies "anti trust status"
http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/obama-...
there are a few dems who wants them some freemarkets...(they just dont know it yet)...
audit-prosecute-incarcerate
There has never been a free market, and there never will be.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
There has not been freemarkets (since 1913) , and there won't be any until we end "The Fed"
audit-prosecute-incarcerate
You are stuck in a rut.
Those supposed free markets you talk about were dominated by the Robber Barons.
Hardly anything to point to.
In 1911 Standard Oil was broken up.
It was the Sherman Anti Trust Act that broke up Standard Oil.
Teddy Roosevelt, hardly a saint but a dynamic politician, wanted to stage a come back and led to the only time a sitting president, Howard Taft who WAS a trust buster but not much of a politician came in third in a national election.
That gave us the Dixiecrat Woodrow Wilson who gave us the Federal Reserve Act.
After that we had a new set of Robber Barons who gave us WWI, the roaring debt driven fraudulent 20s and the Great Depression.
The severity of the Depression forced FDR left with Glass Steagal and the Labor Relations Act.
New Robber Barons gave us WWII, the second renewed flaring of the first war.
In 1947 this gave us the National Security State which gave us the MIlitary Industrial Complex Robber Barons.
So on and so forth.
One set of Robber Barons after another.
There has never been a free market and there never will be.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
Robber barons over and over.
Powerful banks have been operating for centuries. (tell me something I don't know already!)
The Federal reserve is the only private corporation that has a mandate in the constitution.
(and that mandate) must be "amended"
Bankers are the top of the pyramid
and thats why the founders who wrote our constitution specified that only The Congress shall have Power To coin Money and regulate the Value therof"
audit-prosecute-incarcerate
The Federal Reserve was set up according to the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, passed in December of 1913.
Is in US code and not in the Constitution.
In the Constitution Article I, Section 8:
---
Through the power to coin money they set up the Federal Reserve, which is outsourcing. I don't know the history of Constitutional challenges, if any.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
I stand corrected.
...but the Federal Reserve Act "stole" a piece of the constitution.
audit-prosecute-incarcerate
Article 1 - The Legislative Branch
Section 8 - Powers of Congress
<>
The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
To borrow money on the credit of the United States;
To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;
...
To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;
To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States;
To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof.
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
Congress delegates its power all the time -- if the Federal Reserve is an unconstitutional delegations of Congress's power, then so is very nearly every government agency. The claim that the Fed is a private corporation is rancid nonsense -- it's a division of the Treasury that was deliberately given a small measure of political independence in order to give it a longer time horizon.
Also so ideally they work for the best of the economy, not political interests.
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
standard, federal reserve, gold standard, federal reserve, gold standard... rinse, repeat.
Jeez, libertarians need a new economic playbook. Ask Dr. Paul to see if he can get one of the amateur economist in his environment to come up with something new.
...you need to cash in your 401-k (take the penalty) and buy gold and silver and platinum and copper and other "real goods" (with tangible value)!!!
(mark my words)
(keynesian economics is goin down)
audit-prosecute-incarcerate
You're gonna eat gold, silver, platinum, copper?
I'm investing in rice and beans.
When will government of the people, by the politicians, for the corporations perish from this Earth?
Not soon enough!
...I think you got it now!
guns, gasoline, firewood, seeds, clothes.
(real estate is good too) ...but it's a little overpriced now.
audit-prosecute-incarcerate
And let me guess, you've got some you'd like to sell him, right?
"buy gold and silver and platinum and copper and other "real goods" (with tangible value)!!!"
Which will be promptly seized by the messmakers when appropriate.
Can't let the slaves own things of value when the shit hits the fan.
Invest in hard booze, tobacco, weed, guns, ammo. All will be the real "gold" for the screwed over masses.
Oh and don't forget to invest in a well-trained militia to protect your "investment".
But not too many get it.
"There has never been a free market, and there never will be."
It's 100 percent impossible for a free market to exist if only for the solitary reason of human nature.
When the US was at its most peak producing power and the middle class was doing well was during the decades of high union membership and tight regulations. Anyone that says otherwise is a fool..
Very astute, but stay tuned.
Many if not most of the posts here are done without the inconvenient impediment of having any expertise in the topic.
Or insight into the broader philosophical implications.
In specialized fields, where there is expertise, there might be broader insight, but there also might be baggage and ego and it tends to come in narrow swaths. It is compartmentalized.
For insight in a broader social sense one needs a philosopher.
One way of getting around that problem here is to primarily post topics on Glenn Beck and his ilk.
Just talk about the froth.
I never claim to have expertise in economics though over the last year I have been reading a lot.
I do have social concerns though. Germaine to this, for me, is the joke about two economists working on a theoretical model has one saying:
this model works so much better now that I have taken the people out.
---
For me the broader social philosophical implications are far more important.
I try to help out towards an understanding of this in my own small way.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
The heading of the post would show a much more penetrating insight if it read something like:
Maybe that is the entire article.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
I recall many years ago having reading a book titled "The Myth Of The American Middle Class" (or maybe without the word "American") but have searched for mention of it online and can't find it.
His (I don't recall the authors name) thesis was precisely that - the "American Middle Class" is a myth.
Anyone who works for a living is Working Class. Period.
If you have to show up for work, you are Working Class.
Those who are called the "American Middle Class" are simply well paid Working Class.
When will government of the people, by the politicians, for the corporations perish from this Earth?
Not soon enough!
It is the propaganda program of the Owners to convince the many that they have escaped their history as serfs and arrived at a new standard.
Not serfs, not working class, but middle class.
I am here to say, there are two classes, the Owners and everyone else.
We are getting back to the understanding of that more clearly as the Owners spread out across the world, which they have doing since the beginning of the last century.
However the damage to the ecology and the certainty of the end of the age of fossils fuels is going to have catastrophic effects for everyone and everything on earth.
The Owners likely are cognizant of this and if so are preparing.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
I'm surprised you didn't call them bourgeoisie and proletariat.
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
Would it have been more clear if I did?
Marx wrote at the beginning of the fossil fuel age and before there was or really could be understanding of the ecology.
Now social concerns intertwine inextricably with concerns of the ecology.
Or at least they should. Marxists, per se, do not make the jump.
For that reason I don't use the terminology even when I otherwise agree with the assessment.
I want to end capitalism not only for the reasons that Marx saw, but because it is destroying the Earth.
We are running out of time.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
That is precisely my take on the world situation.
In 1970 The Club Of Rome did a study, using the best computer modelling available at the time, and concluded that AT THAT TIME the world faced a choice: limit population growth and drastically reduce industrial output or else by the early 21st century (2015 or thereabouts) there would begin a massive die-off of the world's population, ultimatly resulting in the survival of only a fraction of the world population.
The Owners have clearly closen to accelerate that process, opposing birth control, expending massive quantities of (other people's) blood and treasure to seize the remaining natural resources, in preparation for their survival after the inevitable die-off.
When will government of the people, by the politicians, for the corporations perish from this Earth?
Not soon enough!
Mountain,
Could this be the work you're referring to?:
Michael Zweig, The Working Class Majority: America's Best Kept Secret (Cornell University Press, 2000), 192 pages, $25 cloth, $14.95 paper.
Link: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1132/i...
Salt
Thank you so much, I have Zweig's book from the Library. I recommend it whole heartedly.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
Does that mean I doing better?
...............so, if I lose my home and get thrown out on the street, it's really a good thing?
dandy
as "one man's trash is another man's treasure? (or something like that).
dandy
...unless you set your house on fire on your way out.
A house has value...(after you move out and the bank owns it lock stock and barrel) and the banks will be able to (find some obscure accounting regulation) "put it on the books" as an asset.
audit-prosecute-incarcerate
But the value of the home goes down in a bad real estate market, so the game of selling through sub-prime loan mortgages from poor family to family is no longer so profitable, and especially so when they can no longer get home loans at any banks due to credit remaining essentially frozen, despite boosh's multi-billion dollar bailout without strings.
And other banks and international investors are wary of investing in bundles in general and specifically if they suspect the presence of sub-prime loans.
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
Credit isn't frozen; it's just returned to something approaching traditional standards or perhaps somewhat stricter. I don't think that's a bad thing -- excessively loose credit was a major cause of the problems we're facing now.
Your understanding of the real estate market and housing is non-existent. Foreclosing on a house in a falling real estate market is a significant loss for the lender (maybe not so much for the servicer; their interests are different).
First, foreclosure is an expensive and time-consuming process.
Second, even under the best circumstances, the house is likely worth less than the bank is owed -- in fact, underwater mortgages are the best predictor of foreclosure, by far.
Third, houses that have been foreclosed upon are worth less in the marketplace because foreclosure unavoidably damages the legal title to the property.
Fourth, maintaining a house in salable condition, or returning it to such a condition if the defaulting owners didn't, is a major ongoing expense. Banks are typically not organized to own real estate, and they lack personnel competent in managing it. That just increases the bleeding.
Fifth, the most generally financially advantageous solution for the lenders in most of these cases are short sales or re-negotiations of the mortgages. That would represent less of a cramdown than a foreclosure does. However, securitization has so atomized the ownership of each mortgage that it has become difficult or impossible to do those deals, because the servicers often don't want them. There's some indication that mortgage servicers profit more from foreclosure (and screw the lenders), which means that the alleged representative of the lenders is working against both them and the homeowner. See http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor...
Who is "The Country" ? The People? Or the Corporations?
The Great Depression ALSO "Restored The Country's Economic Health" by allowing the American Fascists to start World War Two by pouring money and propaganda into Hitler's Rise, leading ultimately to the creation of the Military Industrial Complex that has stolen valuable resources from many other nations to keep the American Consumer Economy afloat since the end of World War Two.
Isn't Disaster Capitalism wonderful?
Wouldn't a Sustainable World Economy be boring?
When will government of the people, by the politicians, for the corporations perish from this Earth?
Not soon enough!
Debt default is a transfer of wealth from creditor to debtor. Now, who do you think the primary members of those groups are in the US?
pending commercial real estate debacle and how many banks ultimately go down because of it. (2010)
Team Obama doesn’t want to address the problem until it happens.
Nothing new there
Who knew the Brookings Institute was liberal? That's news to me.
calls the Liberal MSM.
“Why would anyone with a functioning brain believe this guy?”
Some guy with an eating disorder
Sort of like shitting yourself to death so you can lose 5 pounds.
Before enlightenment - chop wood, carry water. After enlightenment - chop wood, carry water.
delete this comment. sorry
A very myopic 'study'. When you pay for your home, you are gaining equity -- something you might use in your later years to sustain your lifestyle, or which you might pass on to your heirs when you die.
When your home is snatched from you in a foreclosure, you've lost the equity you've built up in it. And then you're forced, most likely, to live in an apartment (assuming you can find one with that blemish on your credit report), which is money down the drain in terms of storing equity.
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