Last night in London after appearing on Keith Olbermann's show, I got an email from a well-connected Iranian who knows many of the power figures in the Tehran political order asking to meet me. I told him that the only place possible was Paddington on the way to Heathrow -- and there we met.
He conveyed to me things that were mostly obvious -- Iran is now a tinderbox. The right is tenaciously consolidating its control over the state and refuses to yield. There is a split among the mullahs and significant dismay with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A gaping hole has been ripped open in Iranian society, exposing the contradictions of the regime and everyone now sees that the democracy that they believed that they had in Iranian form is a "charade."
But the scariest point he made to me that I had not heard anywhere else is that this "coup by the right wing" has created pressures that cannot be solved or patted down by the normal institutional arrangements Iran has constructed. The Guardian Council and other power nodes of government can't deal with the current crisis and can't deal with the fact that a civil war has now broken out among Iran's revolutionaries.
My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits -- and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.
Likewise, he said, Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mousavi know this -- and thus are using all of the instruments at their control within Iran's government apparatus to fight back -- but given Khamenei's embrace of Ahmadinejad's actions in the election and victory, there is no recourse but to try and remove Khamenei. Some suggest that Rafsanjani will count votes to see if there is a way to formally dislodge Khamenei -- but this source I met said that all of these political giants have resources at their disposal to "do away with" those that get in the way.
He predicted that the so-called reformist camp -- who are not exactly humanists in the Western liberal sense -- may try and animate efforts to decapitate the regime and "do away with" Ahmadinejad and even the Supreme Leader himself.
I am not convinced that this source "knows" these things will definitely happen but am convinced of his credentials and impressed with the seriousness of the discussion we had and his own concern that there may be political killing sprees ahead.
This is not a vision he advocates -- but one he fears.
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I just got from the Real News Network. If you go to the link you'll see the video has been disabled of the interview, but thankfully there is a transcript below that is quite shocking, if accurate:
http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com...
Yet that all seems hearsay (for the moment). And shocking, nonetheless! Let's hear from and consider more direct 'evidence' corroborated , of course, elsewhere in multiple outlets....
One way to verify the veracity of Mousavi's campaign manager would be to check our satellites and see if indeed the power has been cut to Tehran.
Now's the time to launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran, when North Korea is least expecting it. That will send a message to the Taliban in Pakistan.
--I presume? Just can't get enough o' that war thang.
You're logic is AWESOME!
Run for President!
"Now is the time to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran." For what reason? For developing a nuclear power source, in that Iran's oil is scheduled to be depleted by mid century?
You really must stop listening to all of that Israeli propoganda you hear on Fox News.
I heard it is all the rage in Paris these days ;-)
It worked with Saudi Arabia when they attacked us on 911.
We attacked Afghanistan and Iraq, thus preventing the Saudis from attacking us again for more than 8 years.
If we attack the country that doesn't have the nuclear weapons, that will keep us safe from the other two that do.
Do you follow? It's like a pretzel.
are you channeling George W?
are you trying to say?... or do you think yourself so cynically amusing....Sorry- I lost your 'drift'-
That's really depressing.
Couldn't you go back to showing pictures of the smokin' hot Iranian women instead?
has things under control, metaphorically speaking that is. :-/
Persian politics has never been simple. Why should we think that what is happening over there now resembles anything in American politics?
The video that was coming out of Iran in the weeks before the election was surreal - the "morality police" had been called off and the people were dancing in the streets.
Only two possible outcomes - the dancing in the streets was going to be allowed to continue, or the heavy handed clampdown we're seeing now.
Had a "Prague Spring" feeling of unreality about it - too bad that's the way it's turning out. But on the other hand it really strained credulity to suppose the Mullahs would allow that much freedom.
The Czechs had to wait 30 years for the Soviets to leave. Let's hope the Iranians don't have to wait so long for the Mullahs to relax their grip.
I had no idea that Ahmadinejad was a Republican. Small world.
the right wing doesn't totally destroy?
"...my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed."
Rather chilling in light of the video I just watched, "Ahmadinejad: No guarantee on rival's safety."
Ahmadinejad said "Iran is the most stable country in the world"..there are no protests, don't believe your lying eyes..it's no different than soccer fans being upset over a loss (wow)...never did hear him address why some reformists have been arrested.
..doesn't mean he isn't lying. I've never trusted anything the President of Iran, Ahmadinejad, has ever said. That "smirk" he uses when he speaks, is disturbing.
for those who think that sanctions dont work...this is proof that they do
iran economy is on the brink of disaster...and the people dont see the current regime as doing enough to fix it
im just amazed that they were so stupid as to arrange for a landslide victory
they might have gotten away with a squeaker, the way bush did....but never a lsndslide
if they pull a shah and arrest everyone...i give the iranian mullahs another 10 years tops
..as to arrange for a landslide victory"
Ain't that the truth. That's what's bothering everyone; how many people seemed to be on Mousavi's side only to have him lose in a landslide? Smacks of political skullduggery; Donald Segretti would be proud.
Ahmenidinejad so... BECAUSE THEY'RE SO MUCH ALIKE!
Welcome to the club!
that we don't fall into the old trap of trying to take advantage of this chaos and have our way over there, covertly or militarily. A bone headed move would probably serve to unite Iranians behind the hard-liners. All Iranians know the history of US interventions there even if Americans don't.
http://www.liquiddaddy.blogspot.com/
Obama won't play that way. He has already warned our military to be very careful when U.S./Iranian forces cross paths. Which happens quite often.
When the supreme's installed the bush/chenny cabal.
We should have moved on washington and ripped it apart!
Think of how much better off not only our country would have been, but Iraq also.
There would not have been all the dead and wounded on either side.
What we got was tons of wasted money, thousands of wasted lives on our side and maybe a million wasted lives on the Iraqi side.
It could have all been prevented if we had just taken out the bush/chenny cabal.
republicanism is a mental illness!
A "Bush V Gore how to" handbook was found in Ahmedinejad's office.
... the handbook asks for keeping things "close" so it looks legit. This fool went all out trying to claim he got 2/3 of the vote.
If things get too out of hand, I see the Supreme Council throwing Ahmadinejad under the bus. Being a theocratic regime and twelvers on top of it, it's more about maintaining an Islamic Republic which keeps Allah happy while at the same time throwing their citizens a few crumbs to keep the peace. It also keeps their hard line ass's in power.
Fer crying out loud, Ahmadinejad seems to have purchased whatever stock of "members only" jackets as left in the world. He seems hellbent in re-enacting the glory days of his "student revolution" in the early 80s. I wonder in Miami Vice is still in heavy rotation in Iranian TeeVee....
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