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Iraq Troop Withdrawal: "On Schedule and As Promised"

President Obama spoke to disabled veterans in Atlanta today, and took the opportunity to highlight the progress of troop withdrawals in Iraq which have continued as promised and are on schedule to end all combat objectives in Iraq, though 50,000 troops will remain to continue training Iraqi forces in the region.

Now, one of those chapters is nearing an end. As a candidate for President, I pledged to bring the war in Iraq to a responsible end. (Applause.) Shortly after taking office, I announced our new strategy for Iraq and for a transition to full Iraqi responsibility. And I made it clear that by August 31st, 2010, America’s combat mission in Iraq would end. And that is exactly what we are doing -- as promised and on schedule.

Already, we have closed or turned over to Iraq hundreds of bases. We’re moving out millions of pieces of equipment in one of the largest logistics operations that we’ve seen in decades. By the end of this month, we’ll have brought more than 90,000 of our troops home from Iraq since I took office -- more than 90,000 have come home.

He did not ignore Afghanistan, or the raging debate over it:

The effort in Afghanistan has been long and been difficult. And that’s why after years in which the situation had deteriorated, I announced a new strategy last December -- a military effort to break the Taliban’s momentum and train Afghan forces so that they can take the lead for their security; and a civilian effort to promote good governance and development that improves the lives of the Afghan people; and deeper cooperation with Pakistan to root out terrorists on both sides of the border.

We will continue to face huge challenges in Afghanistan. But it’s important that the American people know that we are making progress and we are focused on goals that are clear and achievable.

On the military front, nearly all the additional forces that I ordered to Afghanistan are now in place. Along with our Afghan and international partners, we are going on the offensive against the Taliban -- targeting their leaders, challenging them in regions where they had free reign, and training Afghan national security forces. Our thoughts and prayers are with all our troops risking their lives for our safety in Afghanistan.

And on the civilian front, we’re insisting on greater accountability. And the Afghan government has taken concrete steps to foster development and combat corruption, and to put forward a reintegration plan that allows Afghans to lay down their arms.

He once again articulated the ultimate goal in Afghanistan, too:

We will disrupt, we will dismantle, and we will ultimately defeat al Qaeda.

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Khyber Supply Route Closed - Again

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The Khyber Pass, through which 70% of US military logistic needs for troops in Afghanistan and enough food to keep Kabul from crippling famine passes, was closed again Tuesday. By my count, that makes the fifth time since the 30th of December. Militants blew up a key bridge, which was apparently unguarded at the time, only a few miles from the Pakistani regional capital of Peshawar, home to the main military garrison for the entire border region.

It was not immediately clear whether supply convoys could reach Afghanistan through alternative, smaller routes in the region. An official in the area, Fazal Mahmood, said repair work had begun on the bridge.

The top U.S. military spokesman in Afghanistan said traffic was already flowing again after the attack. "They made a bypass," Col. Greg Julian said.

Hidayat Ullah, a government official in the Khyber tribal area, said the 32-foot-long (10-meter-long) bridge was about 15 miles (25 kilometers) northwest of the main city of Peshawar.

Pakistan has dispatched paramilitary escorts for supply convoys and cracked down on militants in Khyber, but attacks have persisted in an area that up to three years ago was largely free of violence.

Col. Julian, Petraeus' spokesman, also made much of Petraeus plans for an alternative route for supplies through former Soviet states. Petraeus had last month described such a deal in very 'slam-dunk' terms, but there's an unforeseen problem. As I wrote was likely back in mid-January, Kyrgyzstan's president has announced, via the Russian press, that the US airbase in his nation is to be closed.

Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev spoke on a visit to Moscow minutes after Russia announced it was providing the poor Central Asian nation with billions of dollars in aid.

Bakiyev said when the U.S. forces began using Manas after the September 2001 terrorist attacks, the expectation was that they would stay for two years at most.

"It should be said that during this time... we discussed not just once with our American partners the subject of economic compensation for the stationing (of US forces at the base)," he said on Russian state-run TV. "But unfortunately we have not found any understanding on the part of the United States.

"So literally just days ago, the Kyrgyz government made the decision on ending the term for the American base on the territory of Kyrgyzstan," he said.

General Petraeus may have been blindsided by this news. He had previously claimed that the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan would play an important part in plans to develop a new supply line into Afghanistan, but that seems to have been well before Russia began pressuring the Kyrgyz government. His spokesman today dismissed the Kyrgyz leader's announcement as "political positioning".

That might be true. If so, the question former diplomats I've been talking with are asking is: "what does Russia want in return for an Afghan supply route?"

Interestingly, Afghan president Karzai was reported recently as considering a deal with Russia for military assistance. For Russia, Afgfhanistan is strategically placed between potential competitors and potential allies and Russia has always been interested in a military presence there if it could be accomplished without the kind of armed resistance that led to its withdrawal in the '80s. But there could be bigger prizes to seek too - like a new START agreement.

The Great Game continues with some new players and as ever one of the most powerful hands is held by whoever can open or close the Khyber - whether by direct action or deliberately looking the other way while local "armed entrepreneurs" do it for them. (I mean, really - a crucial bridge utterly unguarded only 15 miles from Peshawar?) Whoever has the Pass has the gorah by the short and curlies. As it stands right now, Pakistan is only reminding the US and its allies of that eternal truth. But with a US troop surge into Afghanistan in the offing and Pakistanis increasingly irate at airstrikes into their territory, the ability to cut off fuel and food to those troops and to the Afghan capital is a powerful potential weapon

Of course, as I noted last month too, there's already a perfectly good brand-new alternative road and rail route into Afghanistan...through Iran.

Crossposted from Newshoggers