Grisly game theory: can you avoid torture?

Marginal Revolution

Let us say that you have been captured and threatened with torture. You are, for whatever reason, entirely willing to betray the information you hold. Your primary goal is to avoid pain, and perhaps you positively want to squeal. How should you present what you know? I see a few options:

1. Break down immediately, beg for mercy, humiliate yourself, and spill the beans. (If you talk right away, will they torture you anyway? And since no further good information can be offered why should they stop?)

2. Go in acting tough, really tough. At the first sign of serious pain, start crying and switch to strategy #1.

3. Wait until they apply their "best shot" torture, and then talk. They will feel they have done their job and stop.

4. First offer (or make up) compromising information to show your disloyalty to the cause your torturers are fighting. Your confession will then be more credible.

5. Say you don't know anything, try to fight the torture, but break down when you can't stand it any more. You can't fool them, so the best you can do is to actually "go through the wringer." You are stuck in the pooling equilibrium, and trying to deviate only makes you worse off.

Which of these is the most credible signal that you have told all you know? Can you do any better than number five? And how does your best answer depend upon the hypothesized motives of the torturers? Is there anything you can say to the U.S. to avoid being sent out for rendition? I don't see any simple answer here, the question is which behavior your torturers will interpret as an unlikely tactic from a truly determined trickster.

Empire Burlesque:  Hype v. Hyderabad.

At MaxSpeak, Max Sawicky’s proposal for an “intelligent immigration policy.”  At No Comment, a less intelligent but more modest proposal from Glenn Beck: convert Mexicans into cheap alternative fuel.

All Spin Zone: The Fairness Doctrine is still dead.

Lukery Land: A short course in scandal management, from Bandar Bush to Sibel Edmonds.

Pandagon: Most white people would charge a cool million to give up TV forever – but they’d be willing to switch races for ten grand or less.  (Has Clarence Thomas switched already?)

If you go to church on Sunday / And cabaret on Monday, join the Blogswarm Against Theocracy.

Guest blogger Simbaud will go to bed hungry tonight . . . unless you help.  Send your leftover infoscraps to: Simbaud AT gmail DOT com.

Brad DeLong has a new ranking system for..cough...cough...honest conservatives...And then this very insightful entry...

Now comes Rick Perlstein:

He explains how "honest conservatives of the class of 2007" - the ones who only thought to turn away from Bush when it became obvious both was destroying the Republicans and the conservative project and empowering the Demorats and the liberal project - will use the public's memory of Bush's disasters to, well, destroy the Democrats and the liberal project. And, most importantly, points out that the media will let them get away with it

and then Digby steps up to the plate:

You can see the contours already as you observe the unbelievable sight of the House Republicans taking to the floor to assail the Dems for earmarks. Really. They are. They have no shame and no conscience and they can switch gears and turn on the phony sanctimony without even a sheepish grin to show they know they are full of shit. For them this is combat by any means necessary and they simply don't care if someone says they are hypocrites...read on

Riiiiiggggghhhhhhtttt. In the last week, gas in my neighborhood has gone up by at least 40 cents, significantly more in some spots. There's a couple of gas stations that have actually hit the $4.00/gallon mark.

ABC News :

Nothing moves the price of gasoline more than the price of oil, and fears that the standoff over Britons held captive in Iran will lead to a major disruption in the supply of Middle East oil is taking an escalating toll on gas prices here in the United States.[..]

In the last eight weeks, even before the current standoff with Iran, prices jumped 44 cents to a national average of $2.61 a gallon - 11 cents higher than a year ago.

Gas prices often shoot up in the spring, as refineries make the switch to summer-blend gasolines, creating glitches in supply. But the standoff with Iran has inflicted a double whammy on prices.

"I believe crude oil prices are going to continue to rise 50 cents to $1 each," said John Kilduff, an oil trader for Fimat USA, "and every day that this goes on until they stabilize at some point above $70 a barrel."

Now that we have a Democratic majority again, I'd like to see them subpoena the oil companies for an actual on-the-record conversation (as opposed to closed door meetings with Dick Cheney) about price fixing and those record profits being realized.

I miss Fafblog, Spot!: Friday Pie blogging worthy of the Faf. The plot thickens, but that Stubborn Iran Pot Refuses to Boil. Well, dagnabbit, turn up the heat, Dick! (from Pollyticks).

Jockohomo/Datapanik: Gay Marriage is just like yours, only gayer.

Big Daddy Malcontent: 'Scuse me, could we, like, switch accountants between my electric company and the Pentagon? 'Cause just like electricity, COMPETENCE ought not be wasted, ya know?

Shakespeare's Sister: Misogyny is so odd!

Off the beaten path, Happy Blogiversary Edition: to Princess Sparklepony, Vast Left, Politits, and The Carpetbagger Report.

guest round-ups by Blue Gal through March 4. bluegalsblog AT gmail DOT com

Duncan can be found in blogger purgatory, Here's his temporary site.

Well, spread the word that we're here for now. Blogger kept tempting me to switch to their new version, telling me it would only take a couple of minutes or maybe a little bit longer...that was 16 hours ago.

MoJoBlog:

In an editorial titled "Time To Switch Teams," a Times Herald-Record business editor announces he why won't vote (as he always has) Republican in the fall:

The reason Republicans are bent out of shape is that this Foley scandal is the proverbial last straw. We've had it. The out-of-control spending. The earmarks. The graft with the lobbyists. The arrogance. The abrogation of principles that Goldwater, Reagan and others worked decades to spread.

The Republicans will lose the House in November. Absent big changes, I have to say they deserve to. Read on...

Former Air America host Mike Malloy and right wing talk show host Steve Malzberg were on MSNBC yesterday to discuss the idea of teachers having guns in classrooms. Within moments, Malzberg tried to switch the argument to terrorism and MSNBC host Contessa Brewer tried to move the subject back to teachers having guns. Malzberg turns very defensive and the whole segment turned into a comedy routine with the wing nut coming off as the butt of all the jokes.

Download | play - WMV Download | play - QT

The segment ends with Malzberg telling Contessa it is no wonder MSNBC is in last place. He defends that statement saying "I have never been shut up like this on a talk show". It seems like Malzberg must be accustomed to being on FOX. Perhaps he should look at the latest ratings comparing Olbermann to O'Reilly and rethink his "last place" comment.

There was an earlier segment on MSNBC with Malloy and Malzberg, discussing Foleygate. Malzberg acted the same during this segment, which you can view here.

If you have people saying things they never said then why not switch the airlines?

I've been posting about the sick Christian video games that Rick Warren has been part of the last few weeks. Now it appears that the pressure got to one of Warren's top aides, who has resigned as an adviser to the developers of Left Behind: Eternal Forces. Here's the newest Update:
"Mark Carver, a top aide to mega-church pastor and best selling author Rick Warren, has resigned as a business advisor to Left Behind Games, the developers of a video game in which Christian militias wage physical and spiritual warfare using the power of prayer and modern military weaponry to convert New Yorkers and kill those who resist. Mr. Carver's abrupt resignation, announced in a statement e-mailed to Talk to Action by Mr. Warren's Purpose Driven Ministries on June 6, 2006, came in response to a two-part series on Talk to Action that criticized the game's antisocial nature (warriors shout "Praise the Lord!" as they blow infidels away, and players can switch to the side of the AntiChrist to kill Christians)."