Various Election Matters (updated)

Everyone craves results, though none will be available until 6:00 p.m. EST (the closing times for each state is here). Worse, media outlets are taking

Everyone craves results, though none will be available until 6:00 p.m. EST (the closing times for each state is here). Worse, media outlets are taking extra steps to prevent the leaking of exit polls. Thus, for now, one has to consume what there is:

(1) Tradesports is an online market for political junkies to buy and sell shares in the outcome of each race, which (at least in theory) produces a reliable (or at least rational) percentage probability for each outcome. I have compiled the current probability which Tradesports assigns for the outcome of each key Senate race and for overall control of each House. They can be found here.

(2) Jerome Armstrong has some reasonably encouraging new polls released last night, while Matt Stoller has some thoughtful advice for how candidates ought to conduct themselves in the event of contested races.

(3) Blue Texan has a polling chart that demonstrates that the magnitude of Bush's unpopularity is historic and unique. In essence, at least from the perspective of Americans, he is the worst failure as President, by far, in the post-World War II era.

(4) The capacity of Bush followers to live in a world of fantasy, ignore all unpleasant realities, and be guided by their desires rather than rational judgment is well-established. Even still, sometimes it is so extreme and creepy that it can still shock and awe. From Mark Noonan at Blogs for Bush:

As for me, this is a great day to be a Republican - I've been talking big about how well we're going to do and my faith, shaken from time to time, never failed. Now it is to be put to the acid test - we shall know within 24 hours of this writing if I've been whistling past the graveyard, or have been realistic in my predictions. I'm standing by my words: the GOP gains seats in both Houses.

"My faith, shaken from time to time, never failed" - isn't that how people are supposed to talk about their belief in their God and their religious beliefs, not their political Leader and their political beliefs? But to many Bush followers (and to the President), those two things are one and the same -- they are guided by faith in their conviction that they are Good and Right and destined to prevail, even in the face of mountains of facts and evidence to the contrary. That, as much as anything else, accounts for the current predicament of our country.


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UPDATE:

(5) There are a lot of anecdotal rumors about Connecticut voters having difficulty finding Joe Lieberman's name on the ballot. Atrios has a copy of the Connecticut ballot and one can easily see why that is the case.

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