McCain's 'evangelical problem'
By Steve Benen Tuesday Jun 10, 2008 4:00pmLate last week, Mark DeMoss, arguably “the most prominent public relations executive in the evangelical world,” raised a few eyebrows when he told BeliefNet that many evangelicals have a “fascination with Barack Obama.” DeMoss concluded, “…I will not be surprised if he gets one third of the evangelical vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 40 percent.”
And what about the Republican nominee? BeliefNet asked, “How is John McCain doing among evangelicals, a crucial Republican constituency?” DeMoss said from his perspective, no one in the evangelical community is really talking about McCain at all.
Following up, it appears some evangelicals are talking about McCain, but the campaign probably wouldn’t care for what they’re saying. Bob Novak wrote in his latest column about McCain’s “evangelical problem,” as evidenced by McCain’s “estranged” relationship with James Dobson, and the campaign’s clumsy handling of the John Hagee blunder.
And the NYT notes today just how challenging it is to resolve this problem.
[Activists’] hesitation illustrates what remains one of Mr. McCain’s biggest challenges as he faces a general election contest with Senator Barack Obama: a continued wariness toward him among evangelicals and other Christian conservatives, a critical voting bloc for Republicans that could stay home in the fall or at least be decidedly unenthusiastic in their efforts to get out the vote.
To address this, Mr. McCain’s campaign has been ramping up its outreach to evangelicals over the last month, preparing a budget and a strategic plan for turning them out in 18 battleground states this fall.
So, is the outreach working? Not so much.
Barna is clearly the leading evangelical polling outlet in the nation, and his latest numbers are striking.
[T]he big news in the faith realm is the sizeable defection from Republican circles of the much larger non-evangelical born again and the notional Christian segments. The non-evangelical born again adults constitute 37% of the likely voters in November, and the notional Christians are expected to be 39% of the likely voters. Among the non-evangelical born again adults, 52% supported President Bush in 2004; yet, only 38% are currently supporting Sen. McCain, while 48% are siding with Sen. Obama.
How can this be? For one thing, McCain’s outreach is half-hearted, in part because he’s afraid of alienating the middle while he pursues the right.
Mr. McCain’s outreach to Christian conservatives has been a quiet courting, reflecting a balancing act: his election hopes rely on drawing in the political middle and Democrats who might be turned off should he woo the religious right too heavily by, for instance, highlighting his anti-abortion position more on the campaign trail.
“If McCain tried Bush’s strategy of just mobilizing the base, he would almost certainly fall short,” said John C. Green, a senior fellow at the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. “Because the Republican brand name is less popular and the conservative base is restive, McCain has special needs to reach out to independent and moderate voters, but, of course, he can’t completely neglect the evangelical and conservative base.”
For another, conservatives have noticed.
In a sign of the lingering distrust, Mr. McCain finished last out of nine Republican candidates in a straw poll last year at the Values Voter Summit in Washington, a gathering for socially conservative activists.
James C. Dobson, the influential founder of the evangelical group Focus on the Family, released a statement in February, when Mr. McCain was on the verge of securing the Republican nomination, affirming that he would not vote for Mr. McCain and would instead stay home if he became the nominee. Dr. Dobson later softened his stance and said he would vote but has remained critical of Mr. McCain.
“For John McCain to be competitive, he has to connect with the base to the point that they’re intense enough that they’re contagious,” said Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council. “Right now they’re not even coughing.”
The record is getting pretty long. McCain denounced the religious right (”agents of intolerance”) eight years ago, and bungled the Hagee and Rod Parsley fiascos. McCain can’t even talk about how, when, and whether he switched from being an Episcopalian to a Baptist without sounding completely incoherent.
The Times piece added that McCain’s advisers say they’re in a “listening mode with evangelical leaders.” I get the sense the advisers will get an earful.
Login or Register to post comments.
Frist!
mccain sure didn't help his case in romancing the evangelicals when he tried to use president carter (an evangelical) as an example of a bad pres
...since I got the ok that we're still doing it from the last thread.
Evangelicals are taking a very pragmatic view in my opinion. Very simple math really.
Bush = did he go to church prior to being president? Uhh..not sure...prolly no.
McCain = did he go to church prior to running for president? Uhhh...not sure...prolly no.
Obama = did he go to church prior to running for president? Uhh..obviously YES.
the bible tells us, in Numbers I believe, that genocide for land or treasure is ok with god. so mccain should do well with the christofascists....but....
he fucked around on his first wife HARD, and his second wife made her fortune selling BEER
he is known to dance and play cards, plus countless hookers from rio to subic bay
Evangelicals, like many others, will vote based on their idea of "character". It doesn't take a genius to see that Obama has it and McBain doesn't.
No problem. Let's take their votes and then ignore them. They are irrational and gullible if they "believe in jeebus".
I prefer they go back into their closets as America welcomes the gay community when they leave the closet.
Time to start taxing the churches too! The idea of giving them tax exempt status is ludicrous. What good do
they bring to contemporary America? None.
Underground Pirate @ 7:
votes for the conservative right wing...but in contemporary America...if not in maybe in prison some of them that is
Blue Lensman @ 6:
I agree.
Let me put this in terms McAntichrist would understand; Its going to be a long hard slog for McForgetaboutit. He is going to get bogged down with this religion thing. He will not surge in the end. McShame will be blown out of the water before we even gets to November. Obama will take no prisoners. Its going to be a torturous campaign for McShame. It will be like shooting ducks in a barrel.
Any more?
what do you stand for mccain......pro-life well i think you'll trouble getting hillary voters or so-called reagan democrats short video check it out
http://bravenewfilms.org/blog/41601-the-real-life-consequences-of-an-ant...
a few judges will be retiring soon
pissed off patricia @ 9:
I understand divorce and all but McSahmes devorce and the reasons for it need to be exploited. He was a little rude wouldn't you say?
marko @ 5:
Fixed!
Daddy made the fortune selling suds. Cindy inherited it.
Captain Bitter Husein Kangaroo @ 10:
yup
and i still think that in the dark bowels of GOP-HQ there is a secret discussion revolved around ways to get rid of mccain.
things have already gotten so bad i find myself pitying mccain more than anything. he is a dangerous, deceptive and dishonest man, but, yeesh, so pathetic.
By the end of the summer, grandpappy JohnnyMcBombIranMcSame won't even have to bother campaigning at all. Once Cindy Botox's financial statements are exposed along with his Vicky Iseman "problem" and his corrupt lobbyists, he'll be laughed right off the campaign trail. Right now Evangelicals are saying: John McWho??? The youth of this country is saying: Grandpappy Senile McWho??? The middle class intelligentia has already moved well beyond this BushButtwipe.
Look, first things first: I certainly do not support Mc Cain in any way shape or form. That said, I have to admit: the fact that so many evangelicals are turned off and are turning away from him kind of makes Mc Cain more appealing in a roundabout way. I dont WANT to support those whom the evangelicals support. Their judgement is based on little else than whether or not a candidate uses the buzz word of faith enough and has an (R) beside their name.
I heard a Hillary supporter say on tv that she wouldn't vote for Obama even if he put Hillary number two on the ticket, but she would vote for McCain if he put Hillary as number two on his ticket. Her reasoning was that she would only vote for Hillary on a ticket with someone who was as experienced as she was.
So maybe the evangelicals who vote for Obama will make up for the women who say they won't vote for him.
Samson- @ 14:
You KNOW the Repukes do not trust McSame. They also see the handwriting on the wall that the Republican Party is irrelevant to the landscape of this country. Even long-time republican pundits are saying that it's time to jump ship because this party will never again be jump-started. It's DOA now.
Underground Pirate @ 7:
I can argue this, but not in this forum. My religious beliefs teach me that courtesy is a princely virtue.
BTW: I am not a Christian, but I do believe in the Divinity of Christ.
I'm happy to hear the outreach isn't working... let's keep that the way it is.
pissed off patricia @ 17:
Give the women time to recover and reach beyond their "female pain body" (that which they associate with psychologically for a variety of reasons not the least of which is sexual discrimination). They'll all come around despite them saying things to the contrary right now. They're just smarting because Hill lost. When faced with another four years of George Bush in the persona of Grandpappy McSame and the total destruction of this country, they would never vote against Obama....trust me.
Captain Bitter Husein Kangaroo @ 12:
Yes he was rude, but that won't matter for many. What does is "character". McCain has too many things going against him to come up strong here. Even his POW past can't save him. It would be better for the Dems if they didn't touch this issue at all; any use of it will seriously undermine Obama's character.
Evangelicals are coming to a major split in their ranks (as I've been saying here for months). It has already begun. Most are not going to care what Hagee or others in the leadership think because they're finally beginning to think for themselves. They are beginning to see that blindly voting one issue is going to put this country down the crapper.
pissed off patricia @ 17:
Lets not forget how divided the GOP is. There is still a large group following RP.
Not all people of faith are knuckle-dragging morons. Some actually care about people over corporations. Some actually don't judge someone solely on what they do in bed. Some actually have a clue what Jesus really stood for. Don't judge a whole group by what the worst of them are like. Anti-faith rhetoric does our side no favors. Do you want the right-wing blogs to quote stuff like that and say that's what we think of Evangelicals? I'm not an Evangelical, but I am a person of faith. I'm also a rabid lefty. Never voted Repug in my life. John Edwards, Barack Obama and Hilary are all Christians. Real Christians. Keep that in mind.
osiris @ 18:
"Late last week, Mark DeMoss, arguably “the most prominent public relations executive in the evangelical world,” raised a few eyebrows when he told BeliefNet that many evangelicals have a “fascination with Barack Obama.” DeMoss concluded, “…I will not be surprised if he gets one third of the evangelical vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 40 percent.”
Hmm, very interesting. I have yet to hear FOX "news" report this tidbit to the folks (just like they do their best to avoid talking about Republicans for Obama).
That's probably because they are waaaay too busy telling the folks that tons of Hillary's supporters are going to vote for McBush instead of their own candidate, Obama. The FOX "news" talking head gotta do their part to keep the Democratic "divisiveness" going - nevermind any Republican divisiveness.
-
osiris @ 21:
The ones who are being so vocal about being anti Obama. Were never going to vote Dem anyway.
Operation Kaos.( get smart)
It would be funny if the only votes McCain gets are the angry Hillary supporters.
These Hillary people want to vote for McCain and make him win so that Hillary will have a better shot in 2012
I wonder if the McCain campaign is having any trouble finding someone who will run on the ticket with him? Seems it would be difficult to find someone who would want to tie their wagon to his at this point.
I respect religious people as long as they keep their religion to themselves. If these people see something in Senator Obama that they trust, admire and feel comfortable with, I think it's great. It also shows that all that bs about Rev Wright backfired on the republicans and the media.
Gretchen @ 22:
they didn't get what they were promised during the bush years....some will think for themselves but many are followers don't kid yourself..there is a certain demographic in that group that hates.....because some of us don't live our life like they do.....i think we should bring up mcblames flip flopping on falwell a hypocrite to this group a lot of this networking for conservatives
I want to know why these evangelicals supposedly like Obama.
Evangelicals are not known to be a particularly progressive group, and if as much as a third of them like Obama for reasons no-one has explained that I've seen, then that's a strike against him in my book.
Steve @ 16:
The evangelical base is changing and it is happening fast. Some of it is theological and I won't go into that here. But there are many out there who have been seriously embarrassed and pissed off at having their religion hijacked by Bush and they fell for it hook, line and sinker. They aren't going to trust what their evangelical leaders are telling them to do with their votes any longer. Personally, The GOP has used this base as a vote cash-cow for so long now that I'm getting a great giggle out of watching them squirm as it erodes for them in the crucial months before this election....
osiris @ 18:
It was suppose to go like this:
Let me put this in terms McAntichrist would understand; Its going to be a long hard slog for McForgetaboutit. He is going to get bogged down with this religion thing. He will not surge in the end. McShame will be blown out of the water before we even gets to November. Obama will take no prisoners. Its going to be a torturous campaign for McShame. It will be like shooting ducks in a barrel.
Any more?
pissed off patricia @ 28:
newt gingrich stirred this strategy up in the 90's the religous divide to get votes......turns these people into haters saying we don't respect them because they go to church it works....the hate empowers them...some are hypocrites......
Gretchen @ 22:
I do not consider myself an Evangelical, but I take offense to someone who would call his wife a C**T. It would hardly meet the WWJD criteria, but rather a typical WWJCD.
Visceral @ 30:
So before you even know why, you are going to hold it against him? They aren't taking over the whole Democratic party, they are simply voting for the man they most want to be president.
karl @ 29:
You're never going to get to that group that hates no matter what evidence is presented. They are those hard-core 28%ers.
What I'm talking about is a theological split that is happening in a lot of the smaller evangelical churches nationwide. Not all voters attend mega-churches (most evangelical numbers are in rural areas). This theological split has had some political consequences as well. As I said to another poster above, the evangelical base as the GOP has known it is not going to be around for too many more years. You'll still have the leaders and the mega-churches, but you will find fewer at the grass-roots level that they have relied upon for all this time.
Trust me on this - I'm an evangelical. Or was until the church mine was affiliated with kicked us out. Now I guess some of you would call us "Fundies". I just call myself Christian.
Oh no. they are going to put tucker on to talk about McShames gaff today about "it doesn't matter about troops in Iraq."
latter day saints voting republican no matter what the terms are
karl @ 38:
So does that mean Obama loses Utah? Bummer.
Liberal AND Proud @ 4:
Michelle Obama made a good point about judging a candidate's character -- that how an incumbent behaved during his tenure in office is far less revealing than how a candidate behaved before he was in office, when "no one was looking."
The truth contained in that statement notwithstanding, I'm not sure we can believe that your math represents what "evangelicals" are thinking. Perhaps many of them are waking up to the notion that a candidate who shares all of your religious convictions (or purports to) does not necessarily share your political agenda.
As a polity, we need to wake up to the fact that there are different kinds of evangelicals, even different kinds of fundamentalist Christians. Discussing the "evangelical vote" is not terribly helpful. Let's call things what they are. When we refer to this voting block, we're referring to theocrats. Not all evangelical or fundamentalist Christians are theocrats.
Gretchen @ 22:
Good point. While McLame's atrocious behavior may be discussed in some circles (like this one), the best thing that Obama can do is stay as far away from any kind of character defamation as he can. That will underscore the character issue much more than anything he would say.
pissed off patricia @ 35:
Yes. No-one seems to be discussing why the evangelicals like Obama, so in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, I'm assuming that they're behaving in a way consistent with their past behavior and like him for the same reasons they like other, usually far-Right Republican politicians.
This suggests that Obama may not be the progressive he's been made out to be, especially in light of his secret meeting with evangelical leaders that's been in the news, along with something fundie-watcher Kossack dogemperor mentioned about Obama's new youth movement that shares a name - "Joshua Generation" - with a particularly dangerous fundie Armageddonist movement.
Blue Lensman @ 41:
Over and over when Obama is speaking he always mentions McCain's service to his country and honors that service. Senator Obama is too nice and to classy to get his feet in the mud by any sort of personal attack on McCain's service or personal life. It won't happen.
Patrick @ 24:
So right!
i am willing to bet that someone in the bowels of the Mccain campaign thought to take advantage of Obama's minister troubles by not only picking the most extreme evangelists for endorsements to secure their votes and reject them later to prove his "maverick' bona fides. Unfortunately that plan is starting to backfire on him as not all evangelicals are as stupid or as easily led as McCain's people thought.
i'm with ben franklin and tom jefferson get religion out politics/government.......it's a devisive strategy i'm tired of it keep your religion to yourself.....if your not with them your against them..human insecurity
why is the evangelical "problem" always cited in the first place?
the votes among the evangelicals were split between Chimpy McFlightsuit and Kerry pretty equally in the last election... did everyone forget that, or did they just not even know?
Senator Obama is a sincerely religious man. I have no problem with that because a sincerely religious man is not going to tell me that god told him to go to war. A man using religion would be the kind to say those words.
pissed off patricia @ 47:
Your logic is sound assuming one doesn't believe in a war-mongering god that is willing to give marching orders directly to us.
has john mccain asked for God's forgiveness for the deaths of innocents which may have occurred during his bombing runs in vietnam? it's a fair question. does maverick have his ducks in line?
has john mccain asked God for forgiveness for deserting his first wife, when she needed him most, after becoming crippled, in favor of a petitte heiress 25 yrs. her junior?
it's a fair question for any candidate, particularly one who's aligned himself with rightwing gasbags like john hagee.
If McCain cannot carry the Christian voting block, he is in deep doodoo. He does not have support of the military, he thinks he has big-time support of the independents and moderates. I find that claim to be dubious. About the only votes he can really count on are those hard-line republicans, and people who will not vote for a black man (a sorry legacy which still lingers on in this Country).
I think techinically we need to speak of the evangelical movement, not evangelicals in general. The latter is primarily Protestant and a believer in Sola Fide, and Sola Scriptura. Too many are into witnessing.
The evangelical movement is more like political parties, primarily republican, like the Moral Majority and that group led by that psycho Tony Perkins.
Now if you excuse me I feel a movement coming on.
Visceral @ 42:
Visceral @ 42:
This suggests that Obama may not be the progressive he's been made out to be, especially in light of his secret meeting with evangelical leaders that's been in the news, along with something fundie-watcher Kossack dogemperor mentioned about Obama's new youth movement that shares a name - "Joshua Generation" - with a particularly dangerous fundie Armageddonist movement.
Sorry, about the earlier trigger reply. But good point already, Visceral. And the silence around this part of the Obama campaign is getting downright spooky.
Blue Lensman @ 6:
Yep, and Barkey is signaling with both arms that he's ready to play ball with 'People of Faith'.
I reckon that the Evangelicals got no worries as 'Bama's a gonna leave the keys to the U.S. Treasury that Boosh entrusted with them in their very capable hands.
What was that saying...how'd that go...'Wrapped in the flag, or wearing the pin, and Carrying the Cross...'
Yeah...that's it.
Kmiec fer SCOTUS anybody?
When are we going to have a National Geographic TV special
Of Southern Californian nudists?
Blue Lensman @ 48:
Yew might....just might I want to point out to STUDY SOME GOTDAMN HISTORY! Shit, sincere, religious men have sent MILLIONS, FUCKING MILLIONS of to horrible lingering death. The shear inanity of 'folks' making all these statements about 'Bama, four letters same as Bush, when they have NOT A FUCKING CLUE AS TO WHO HE IS, WHO HE'S ON THE TAKE FROM not even do they know a RAT'S ASS ABOUT THE MAN'S REAL HISTORY.
Hey, worked for Boosh...common man...guy you'd like to have a beer with...fought dem damn Viet Congs!
I just got one question:
HOW DUMB ARE YOU?
I LOVE THAT PART!
A.Citizen @ 56:
Good question. WTF do you mean?
Everyone's evangelical problem; just that they exist and are so crazed.
marko @ 5:
And he's creepy. Don't forget creepy.
You do realize that the reason Evangelicals like Obama is because they think he is the antichrist and by electing him they are engineering the forthcoming endtimes, right? My uncle told me about the charismatic, multi-racial leader that turns out to be the antichrist in the Left Behind whacko book series. It's the same reason they support the Jews remaining in Israel. They think it falls in line with what it says in Revelations.
I guess even the votes of crazy religious folks who are trying to bring about the apocolypse still count.
Hagee broke a taboo when he attacked Catholics from the pulpit.
Americans have a child-like faith in the value of the statements of the candidates for the upcoming election, while in the rest of the world people are rolling in the aisles. Here (down-under) this crap just don't fly. John McCain is too bloody old and Obama is a power-politician of the most obvious kind. Should have picked Clinton.
Take a good look at Reed.
This may be the last time he's on TV.
Visceral @ 30:
Why is there an evangelical "fascination" with Obama? Because his speeches sound like sermons. My impression is that evangelicals like a lot of emotion and personal fire from the pulpit. They're not going to hear that from Grampy McCain, whose cynicism in dealing with the religious right has been in-your-face.
Login or Register to post comments.