Bill Kristol: Accentuatin' The Positive
By Nicole Belle Sunday Nov 02, 2008 4:00pm
(h/t Heather)
Never one to give up the ghost on an epic failure (see his championing of Iraq, neocon principles, Sarah Palin,etc. for proof), Bill Kristol tells the Fox News panel that it's not impossible for McCain to win, though in a strange break into reality, he admits it's not likely.
Obama has many paths to victory, McCain only has probably one narrow path to victory. But you only need one narrow path. He wins every state in which he’s ahead or even, which gets him to 200 electoral votes. He then wins Ohio and Florida, where he’s now behind in most polls, but certainly within range. A lot of people on the ground think he has a pretty good chance of Ohio and Florida. That gets him to 247 electoral votes. He snatches Pennsylvania, that’s key, I think, which would get him to 268. One short. That would be a heartbreaker, to win Pennsylvania and lose the election 270 to 268. Pennsylvania, of course, it was the small town Pennsylvanians that are so bitter, according to Sen. Obama. I thin , I think seriously, he has a better chance in Pennsylvania that a Republican would normally have. Then he needs to pick up one state, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia—which a state poll showed closing to 3 points today—or conceivably, New Hampshire, which he’s way behind in the polls, but of course, McCain has won two primaries there. It would be a poetic ending for McCain to take Pennsylvania on the bitter, small town residents’ votes, take New Hampshire out of sort of loyalty to John McCain and win the 272 electoral votes. So that’s how he does it. I’ve got it worked out. I’m not sure the voters agree, but it’s not implausible. It’s not very likely, but…it’s possible.
For a more reality-based projection of the election, let's look at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight:
Overall, our model shows McCain closing Obama's gap in the national popular vote to about 5.4 points. His win percentage has increased to 6.3 percent, from 3.8 percent last night.
However, several cautions about reading too much into these numbers:
Firstly, I have the model programmed to be EXTREMELY aggressive this time of year. There have been relatively few 'fresh' polls conducted within the past 24-48 hours -- most of these state polls were in the field late last week. As we get more data in today and tonight, the model could very well decide that the race is not tightening at all. Moreover, polls conducted on a weekend -- particularly on a quasi- holiday weekend -- is generally unreliable.
Secondly, even with this tightening, McCain remains well short the 2/2/2 condition that we defined last week:
John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.
Indeed, McCain has not come within 2 points of Obama in any polls in any of these states.
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He's got a perfect record.
Always wrong.
Primus?
Bill Kristol "I've got it worked out"
We're sure you ,Karl Rove and Sarah Palin do. And the only way McCain can win is if they steal the election again. That is the only way McPalin can take this race is by stealing the race.
Kristol has once again derived his numbers by looking into his Kristol Ball while doing some of his patented Kristol Meth.
But if McCain would really like a Nov. 4 Kristol Nacht, I think the best way to go about it is to purge enough voters, and have enough glitches, to push the map back to 2000. With the exception of New Hampshire, which he can simply let go. Give up Iowa and New Mexico to Obama, but manage to eek out Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado by the slimmest of margins, and he can let Pennsylvania go too. And still "win."
Is reporting McCain has jumped into the lead in North Carolina and Ohio and one or two other states they made up for their newscast. If this election is even remotely close after the last 8 years...even within 10 percentage points....then it goes without saying that the electorate really are as stupid as they are treated by the corporate world.
ConcernedCanuck:
About half the electorate is just that dumb. It's not quite half, but it's embarrassingly close.
And then there's the voter suppression and electoral fraud.
I tend to think Obama will win. It's still going to be very hard for McCain to win all the states he needs. But it's not going to be impossible.
Tuesday night, keep your eye on Virginia. If they call it for Obama, relax a little easier.
Given the last 8 years....Given Raygunomics....Given absolutely no choice.....this election SHOULD be a landslide. Literally. But given that, I STILL think that either Obama will be a one term Prez, or won't make it through one term. Call me a "conspiracy theorist" but I truly believe that he even remotely tries to make any drastic changes, he will be shown the door one way or another. I hope I'm wrong.
For not calling Kristol "William the Bloody."
He's a man who has never gotten his hands dirty or put his life on the line for fellow citizens.
A weasel who would just love a sanguine, macho-sounding name.
Feel free to use "Willie the Wanker;-)
This man has blood on his hands as surely as he spilled it himself.
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Nothing's impossible
Merely improbable
Unless one is counting the odds
Of my getting laid.
Kristol Nacht
Sun, 11/02/2008 - 15:20 — Karen
Kristol has once again derived his numbers by looking into his Kristol Ball while doing some of his patented Kristol Meth.
My guess is is wee willy polishes his crystal balls a lot.
to be relegated such a low slot in life - that of a "contributor" on Fox of all places. I suppose they have to hire the mentally challenged but really, even a clock is right twice a day.
This guy, what's his name, has never been right.
That poor man.
Then the fun will begin.
Will he serve the people or the power brokers?
My guess is he'll serve the latter while giving some candy to the former.
He's going to be Bill Clinton II, minus the blue dress.
Bub.
is so muuuuuuuuuuch more productive. Right?
Kristol is an America-hating Zionist creep responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths, including American ones.
and be made to take his PNAC and shove it.
He can kibbitz in a kibbutz.
Both dopes, both with the same stupid shit eating grin that should be wiped out of their mugs via repeated punches.
Kristolmeth is what happens when people are not put in their respective places at an early age. I am a firmly believer that every man should have his ass handed to him in order to make him understand his real context.
Like my man Jay-Z would say: "Loud as a motorbike, but could not burst a grape in a food fight."
Jon Stewart still pisses me off when he tolerates and gives a platform for this buffoon just on the basis of their shared faith.
I simply can't watch the man. Period. Vomit.
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Bill Kristol: Accentuatin' The Positive
AB+?
billyboy would be one of the brown stains in the back.
wee-willy reminds me of the kid who tells two guys, "You know what the other one said about you?" He arranges them to fight by the teeter-totter after school. When the crowd gathers around them and the fighters seem to hesitate, he pushes one from behind to get the fight started, and fade back into the crowd so he doesn't get hurt. And then claims it was his amazing acumen that saw the fight coming.
There is a place for Bill Kristol and his ilk...and it's called the Great Pacific Garbage Patch.
Again, why does anyone care what this man says? He has be proven wrong time and time again. I'm constantly amazed that he hasn't been laughed into obscurity yet. Maybe after Dick Cheney is out of office, he can take Lindsey Graham, Bill Kristol, and Karl Rove to his Pit of Despair (I hear they allow forms of water torture there). While he's at it, take Sean Hannity and O'Reilly there as well.
November 4th can't get here soon enough!
Kristol: "I’ve got it worked out. I’m not sure the voters agree, but it’s not implausible. It’s not very likely, but…it’s possible."
The long, pregnant pause of the panelists and the stunned silence says it all.
Kristol, you're fulla more crap than a Christmas goose....
That's why Americans eat turkey vor X-mas.
Soon the international community will have us eating crow.
...Kristol on the Daily Show this past Friday? He came right out and--sounding like the election is over--said Obama "will be a moderately liberal Democratic President." So much for the Marxist, socialist, communist crapola.
And once again he'll be wrong. Obama will be Clinton Part 2. Appeasing Rethugs and the DLC more than any progressives. Just my opinion, but, I sure hope I'm wrong.
Who'd of thunk it? The man has been absolutely wrong on everything he's ever said, and he's STILL on TV? Wow.
It defies any possible logic.
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ickily earnest trollish pallor to Kristol's faltering visage?
It looked like sweating clay...
forgot to mention that his calculation would also require Obama to be arrested tomorrow in an airport men's room with Larry Craig and a half key of coke.
Bloody Kristol is an irretrievable idiot. Please Blood Bill - go away. As Nicole says "Teh Stoopid - it hurts."
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It is no surprise that the John McCain - Sarah Palin ticket has gone increasingly negative down the home stretch. They really don’t have any other options to close the gap. However, a new negative advertisement has been leaked that is particularly disturbing in its hypocrisy.
http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Leaked_Ad_f...
Sarah Palin has consistently advocated abstinence-only education in schools, despite the fact that this philosophy has resulted with both Palin and her daughter conceiving out of wedlock. Clearly, abstinence-only has not worked for the Palin family, yet Sarah Palin wants to prescribe this in place of comprehensive sexual education for other young Americans.
This advertisement came from the same 527 group that put forth this anti-Obama spot last week…
http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Leaked_Pro_...
this cowardly little sniveling idiot, if it were not for his daddy he would not even have a job.
he has been wrong about everything he has spoken about in years.
I never watch fox it is just to disgusting to watch.
And that's just for eschewing the the grammatically-challenged cliche "epic fail".
If I seem inappropriately amorous for a Monday, you ain't seen nothing yet. I'm just warming up my mojo for the post-electoral love fest.
When Bill Kristol and Fred Barnes went on a junket cruise to Alaska in early 2007, they dropped by the governor's mansion to meet Sarah Palin. Kristol, apparently, fell madly in love with her and hasn't stopped drooling since. He convinced Robert Bjork, Dick Bolton, DIck Morris and some other high-ranking Republicans to pay her a visit, which they did. These people, spear-headed by the lovesick Kristol, immediately began pressuring the RNC to make Palin the #2 choice for whomever won the presidential nomination. This is why John McCain selected Sarah Palin after having just one phone conversation with her and doing zero vetting. McCain caved to pressure from the right wing of his party because he knew that his candidacy depended on the so-called Republican "base", which wasn't too thrilled with him at all. That's why Palin's choice was one of the most cynical and divisive ploys in the history of U.S. politics. And William Kristol, who's heart was captured by a former sportscaster's smile and a beauty queen's wink, is the man we have to thank. A vote for Palin is a vote for ignorance.
When was the last time this jerk was right about anything?
Wrong Way Willie strikes again!
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