(h/t Heather)
Never one to give up the ghost on an epic failure (see his championing of Iraq, neocon principles, Sarah Palin,etc. for proof), Bill Kristol tells the Fox News panel that it's not impossible for McCain to win, though in a strange break into reality, he admits it's not likely.
Obama has many paths to victory, McCain only has probably one narrow path to victory. But you only need one narrow path. He wins every state in which he’s ahead or even, which gets him to 200 electoral votes. He then wins Ohio and Florida, where he’s now behind in most polls, but certainly within range. A lot of people on the ground think he has a pretty good chance of Ohio and Florida. That gets him to 247 electoral votes. He snatches Pennsylvania, that’s key, I think, which would get him to 268. One short. That would be a heartbreaker, to win Pennsylvania and lose the election 270 to 268. Pennsylvania, of course, it was the small town Pennsylvanians that are so bitter, according to Sen. Obama. I thin , I think seriously, he has a better chance in Pennsylvania that a Republican would normally have. Then he needs to pick up one state, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia—which a state poll showed closing to 3 points today—or conceivably, New Hampshire, which he’s way behind in the polls, but of course, McCain has won two primaries there. It would be a poetic ending for McCain to take Pennsylvania on the bitter, small town residents’ votes, take New Hampshire out of sort of loyalty to John McCain and win the 272 electoral votes. So that’s how he does it. I’ve got it worked out. I’m not sure the voters agree, but it’s not implausible. It’s not very likely, but…it’s possible.
For a more reality-based projection of the election, let's look at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight:
Overall, our model shows McCain closing Obama's gap in the national popular vote to about 5.4 points. His win percentage has increased to 6.3 percent, from 3.8 percent last night.
However, several cautions about reading too much into these numbers:
Firstly, I have the model programmed to be EXTREMELY aggressive this time of year. There have been relatively few 'fresh' polls conducted within the past 24-48 hours -- most of these state polls were in the field late last week. As we get more data in today and tonight, the model could very well decide that the race is not tightening at all. Moreover, polls conducted on a weekend -- particularly on a quasi- holiday weekend -- is generally unreliable.
Secondly, even with this tightening, McCain remains well short the 2/2/2 condition that we defined last week:
John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.
Indeed, McCain has not come within 2 points of Obama in any polls in any of these states.
