Charlie Cook Says Democratic Majority Likely to Hold
Campaign analyst Charlie Cook says so far, it's still unlikely that we'll see a Republican sweep in 2010:
To put it another way, as things stand now, Republicans could win every competitive House race and still come up one seat short. That won't be the case, however, if there is further erosion in the ranks of the solid and likely Democratic seats. Although Democrats can take some solace from the fact that no party has ever lost every single competitive House race, none of the four lawmakers who have recently added their names to the retirement list -- Brian Baird of Washington, Bart Gordon of Tennessee, Dennis Moore of Kansas, and John Tanner of Tennessee -- was considered particularly vulnerable a year ago.
For Republicans to take control of the House, more Democrats in swing districts would have to retire. There will be more, but how many?
If 10 or 12 more seats rated as solid or likely Democratic shift to the "lean Democratic" or "toss-up" columns, the fight for control will become much more serious. Washington is awash in rumors of other veteran Democrats contemplating voluntary exits. Some serve in safely Democratic districts, but others represent places not unlike the districts of Baird, Gordon, Moore, and Tanner. Also helping the GOP is its best House recruiting in a long time. A crop of strong candidates will help Republicans win more than their share of contests if the political environment remains what it is today.
Winds that began shifting against Democrats around the end of June, during the House cap-and-trade vote and the beginning of the health care debate, are now transforming their party's potential problems into real ones. That change is causing predictable talk of a 1994-style Republican landslide strong enough to flip the Senate. That talk, though, is just so much hot air.
Anyone with the slightest knowledge of the Senate's 2010 lineup of contests couldn't take such talk seriously. For Republicans to seize the Senate, they would have to hold all six of their open seats, which is quite plausible. All 12 of the GOP incumbents up for re-election would also have to win, which is quite likely. The Republicans would then have to pick up the Delaware and Illinois open seats that Democrats now hold -- a feat that is not difficult to imagine.
However -- and this is where the going would get rough for the Republicans -- they would need to defeat Michael Bennet in Colorado, Barbara Boxer in California, Christopher Dodd in Connecticut, Kirsten Gillibrand in New York, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas, Harry Reid in Nevada, and Arlen Specter (or Joe Sestak if he wins the primary) in Pennsylvania, plus Republican Gov. John Hoeven of North Dakota would have to run and beat Byron Dorgan.
No party in history has ever run the table that completely. And even then, the GOP would come up one seat short.
The fragility of the Democrats' Senate majority is visible, though, if you look toward 2012, when 23 Democratic seats will be on the line compared with just nine Republican ones, and ahead to 2014, when 20 Democratic seats but only 13 Republican ones will be up for grabs.
Just as much has changed in the past year, much could change in the next. What the past tells us is that it takes a truly major event -- such as the 9/11 attacks of 2001 or the 1998 impeachment of President Clinton -- to improve the fortunes of the president's party going into a midterm election. Only one thing seems certain: 2010 won't be dull.
He predicts, however, that the corporatist party that makes up both will undoubtedly stay in power until the Empire falls.
At least I'll be in another world while you're pissing on my casket.
Has proven that the Global Empires now controls our government..
The actions and policies from this administration , proves that both parties are deaf and blind to the needs and wishes of the Citizens of this country..
They pass corporate legislation , than tells Americans that it is for them..
The Bailout for the bank's ceo and stock holders.
The Auto gift and the clunker deal for FOREIGN auto companies.. Where most likely American companies are in partnership with.
Now the health rip-off for the health and Drug monopolies.. They know it is a bad bill and this is why they are forcing Americans to buy it..
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Boehner and the rest of his leadership crew and bring in some new ones, maybe REAL fiscal conservatives. Tanner Boehner was there under Bush/Cheney and if the GOP really wanted to show they were for 'real' they should get new leadership. but then since theyre not offering any new ideas, just the party of 'no' and the opposite of anything the Dems do, we shouldnt expect much.
it would be insane to give the party of no more power again.
We could have used a couple more party of 'no' in the senate this week to stop this abomination of so-called health care reform.
History has shown it's a bad idea to allow either party to have a veto or filibuster proof majority.
Is we do not start recruiting new real democrats to change these paid corporate candidates in the primary..
The Clinton group was behind Caroline Kennedy be replaced by a blue dog representative for Hillary's senate seat.
The same Clinton group which was responsible for Lamond lost to Lieberman in the Senate race in 2006 , is running the White House now including Emanuel..
Our party has been taken over by this group which is recruiting and electing more corporate candidates each year to give them more control and power.
Until we make up our minds to recruit , fund and support real democrats to replace these arrogant , elitist paid corporate crooks we will be s... on..
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Who really cares if the Dems will hold on to the House? They're governing as if they were Republicans anyway!
he voted for Nader. Same thing Nader said when he ran. Does anybody really believe that President Gore would have invaded Iraq. There is always a difference even if it is small. An a small difference can end up making a big difference.
Why not? For one, as far as the big issues of the day, neither party can solve them. They just aren't capable and the system is rigged so that it is very hard to have any other viable choice. Bernie Sanders is an aberration. Besides, voting for politicians and begging them to listen to you once in office, along with you and everyone else having no direct power or say in the functions of government or what the representative does once in office is a flaw that will doom the system to no end. The whole idea of republicanism as opposed to democracy is that these people are supposed to be enlightened thinkers, like Plato's "philosopher kings". Are they? Have they at all proven this? Do you they care about or understand you? We could elect the most radical politician in the world and if the system, if the uneven wealth ownership, if social relations don’t change, it won’t matter a bit.
Regarding foreign policy, both parties are what amounts to right wing. They both have their organizations like the NED, the International Republican and The National Democratic Institute who support the undermining of democracies in ways you and I would never accept domestically. Who do they support? Right wing reactionaries. Even the labor unions, internationally, have historically been used a tool by both parties to support right wing reactionaries. Imagine if Iran or Venezuela, pick any elite chosen enemy (usually for reasons of personal profit) openly supporting opposition candidates in the US who are in favor of policies that would, at least, benefit those countries more than most US citizens.
On economic matters both parties have signed onto the monstrous “free trade”. The Democrats are enlightened. They put non-binding wording in the deals regarding labor and the environment that have no teeth. The words are there though. Words are nice. Cutting military spending? We do spend more than the rest of the world combined, use the military in immoral and horrendous ways…no, that would be unpatriotic.
It is our fault anyway though. The system itself is broken beyond repair and most “progressives” are nothing more than reformers. They want to reform something beyond reform, like bringing a dead body back to life. How do you get change when the electoral college is the way it is? When there is no direct say for citizens in the workings of government? When there are so many illogical procedures in government to prevent the rule of the majority, which these elites think is nothing more than the “rule of the mob”. When small, powerful corporations own the media, so in other words determine all the information 99% of the country receives? When ownership of wealth is so concentrated and getting worse? I could go on and on.
the people who post at Huffpost are beyond annoying and simplistic. Every criticism of Obama boils down to: 1. You must watch Fox News. 2. McCain would have been worse. 3. Some procedure makes it hard for him to do anything.
How about this: He surrounded himself with the establishment from the second he got into office (whose ideas got this country to this point) and hasn't taken a single stance on any issue that requires any guts. The economy could be even worse, should we be happy it isn't the worse case scenario? We have two choices in their world (not the endless choices available in reality). Choice A or B you see on TV. Change requires people to get off of their ass and to scare the hell out of the elites. It also requires you to challenge people in power, without exception, not to lick their boots and to make excuses for them when there isn’t any.
Clinton passed the free trade bill which Bush let over 7 million American jobs be outsourced overseas..
Clinton's administration started passing legislation which has let to the larger companies buy out the smaller ones making them what they now call to big to fail , which actually means that when they fail the government transfers our wealth to them... Even on a credit card from China and other foreign countries...
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Clinton passed the free trade bill which Bush let over 7 million American jobs be outsourced overseas..
Clinton's administration started passing legislation which has let to the larger companies buy out the smaller ones making them what they now call to big to fail , which actually means that when they fail the government transfers our wealth to them... Even on a credit card from China and other foreign countries...
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??? Current definition, not past.
Independent here, been wondering this a for couple of decades at least.
Republican which could not win as a republican candidate.. Recruited , funded and supported by Emanuel and the Centrists group..
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say today "we're just kind of scratching our heads" when asked about the continual slide in New Home Sales. What planet are these guys from?
TEA PARTY candidates popping up to challenge responsible moderate Republicans... will KILL their chances for gains in the House or Senate.
Democrats will be able to take credit for IMPROVED ECONOMIC OUTLOOK... and more jobs.
Voters will actually remember that the Republicans did NOTHING FOR A SOLID YEAR but try to DESTROY OBAMA.
The Tea Perty voters will kill the Republican Party.
Friday.
"Voters will actually remember that the Republicans did NOTHING FOR A SOLID YEAR but try to DESTROY OBAMA."
Very Very True. Both sides suck, but the Reps are hellbent on chaos.
NOBODY 2012
This is exactly what the arrogant democrats in charge of the democratic party expect.
The right wing group controlling our party are doing nothing for our citizens. They arrogantly believe they can do as they please because their base will always vote for them no matter what deceitful BS they do..
Obama is a phony and now I wonder if he was selected by " what ever group" which is controlling our country to carry on Bush/Cheney's policies..
They voted for the war , they voted for the patriotic act , they voted to let our manufacturing plant & jobs overseas , they voted to give our money to the banking empire , they voted to give our money to the foreign countries and now they are voting to force us to give our money to the health and drug companies..
Democrats were supporting the corruption and policies of the Bush / Cheney administration for 8 years..
They never try to stop them or start impeachment procedures against them during the previous 8 years of Bush's administration.
Obama , Emanuel and the democrats are still giving their support for the Bush / Cheney crimes by censoring any material , investigation for prosecution..
You have to wonder just how many democrats were involved and fully supported their crimes in the previous administration..
The government has excepted themselves from investigation or prosecution of any crimes they commit.
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Hold what, the whackjob?
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
I have no fear of the republican'ts taking control anytime soon, oh I'm sure that they will pick up a few seats but it wont be as the nutbaggers think, that the Republicans will take over the congress and later the presidency.
I dont think the country as a whole has forgotten what crooks the republican'ts have been, and of course the wingnuts are making themselves more and more unelectable.
What we need to watch for is when they realize that in order to win elections again, they need to seriously hide what their true beliefs are. Right now they have convinced themselves that the country as a whole thinks like them, losing several elections back-to-back might make them finally rethink themselves.
When angry, count four, when very angry, swear.
-Mark Twain-
how adept the Republicans are at dirty tricks and fraud it shouldn't be too hard for them to get back in control (did they ever lose it?!) next year.
How insane is THAT? After eight years of Bush..
Getting all them Democrats in office really matters.
ROFLMAO!
As bad as the democrats suck, the republicans suck a lot worse. No matter how hard the corporate GOP media tries to hide that fact, the people know it.
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if the republicans LOSE seats next year. The likelyhood of them regaining control and winning back congress anytime in the next 30 years, is somewhere between negative infinity and zero!
Everyday I talk with unemployed former GOPers who think they suck! This isn't 1994, when the republicans were the new unkown guys on the block, looking to regain power after 60 years in the wilderness. People know who and what they are now. The chance that all of those blue states are somehow going to go out and elect republicans in 2010 -is laughable.
But this will be the MSM corporate fascist spin over the next 10 months, so get use to it.
The reason why independents and lefties are disgusted with Rahmabama, is because he is TOO conservative. They wanted change, not republican lite. Why the hell would they go for the republicans under that scenario? It doesn't even make sense.
And the teabaggers only help the inept democrats, buy freaking the shit out of anyone who is slightly to the left of Adolf Hitler.
Funny thing is, the democrats who are going to lose their seats are the fucking bluedogs! Good riddance. These stupid jackasses are so clueless that they decided to be republicans, after the people threw the republicans out because they loathe them. Talk about dumb?
Personally, I would expect to see a lot more support for third party candidates, as opposed to the people flocking back to their oppressors (GOP).
Rush Limbaugh is what a smart person thinks a stupid bigot sounds like.
The media is beginning to ramp up their midterm election meme about the Democrats losing Senate seats in the 2010 election. I beg to differ. I went to one of my favorite election sites (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) to gather some general information. After perusing the 2010 Senate races, I note the following:
Probably no change: WA, OR, CA, HI, ID, UT, AZ, ND, OK, IA, WI, IN, AR, AL, GA, SC, NC, MD, VT
Current D at risk: CO
Current R at risk: AK, SD, LA, KY
No incumbent: KS, FL, NH, MO, OH, DE (KS is probably safe R, DE is probably safe D, thus no change. The other four, which are currently R, are up for grabs...)
Rumors, but pretty safe D: NY, PA, CT
The D perhaps most at risk based on current news reports: IL (Obama's old seat)
For the R's to gain more than two seats, here's who they'd have to beat: Boxer, Wyden, Murray, Inouye, Reid, Dorgan, Lincoln, Feingold, Bayh, Spector, Gillibrand, Dodd, Leahy, or Mikulsky. Maybe (maybe (maybe)) Blanche Lincoln could go down, but the rest ain't happening...
So my analysis:
Two D seats at risk, both of which could remain D
Eight R seats at risk (four with incumbents, four without).
Worst case scenario: D -2 (D 56, R 42, and I 2)
Best case scenario: R -8 (D 66, R 32, and I 2, including one totally marginalized Joe Loserman)
The outcome lies somewhere in-between. My prediction: D +2 (gains in OH and FL), leaving us with D 60, R 38, and I 2, including a marginalized Joe Loserman. Thus, the D's are in pretty good shape going into 2010. The people who are describing impending D losses are reporting passed gas. The state-by-state numbers tell a different story.
Reality has a liberal bias.
-- Gerry
I agree. Although I think the dems may even pick up an additional 2 or 3 seats beyond your projection; once the citizenry thinks about the republican response to our problems has been an obvious "screw you working people," the republicans will begin to reap the obstructionism they have sown.
Rush Limbaugh is what a smart person thinks a stupid bigot sounds like.
Arguing about or asserting who 'sucks worse' (Democrats or Republicans?!?) is proof positive that our nation's politics has swirled down our dirty toilet into the raw sewage of sheer stupidity!
The corporatists have been determined for decades to undermine public education so that fewer individuals would be informed enough or articulate enough to oppose them--and so as to render infinitesimally small the likelihood that a less privileged person might compete with their offspring for the primo jobs. Well, they have achieved their dastardly goals!
Now, we have a population of citizens who are so addicted to the boob tube, so ready to believe whoever has the flashiest computer graphics or the most boorish attitude, so incapable of rigorous analysis--so willing to be deceived...it begs the question: IS there any REAL difference?!?
Watching the health insurance reform debacle has been as painful as having impacted molars extracted without anaesthesia. If anyone thinks our current crop of politicians* cares about anything but the almighty dollar, well, I've got some beachfront in Nevada you've just GOT to see!
*The exceptions--those politicians who tend towards honesty and ethics--are so few in number that they cannot effect change...
(AND, please don't think that my assertions herein above apply to those of us who are die-hard activists with a clear understanding of the Democratic Party's legitimate platform--I used to be hopeful that our numbers and our resources could make a difference...)
I hope Charlie Cook is right. To all those disgruntled Democrats/liberals who don't feel Obama has moved quickly enough or fulfilled their every wish, please get over it. He's still infinitely better than ANY Republican by ANY measure. The thought of turning this country back over to the Grotesque Old PIgs is sickening.
Voted for bush/chenny the first time. I think anyone that voted for them a second time should be taken out and shot!
The depth and breath of the stupidity of the republican voter is just unbelievable!
republicanism/conservatism is a mental illness that is killing America!
in the House AND Senate AND a landslide win in the presidential election has ever been so timid and ineffectual. So don't expect this to be like every other time before it.
People voted for change, not bullshit. If I were actually serious about voting in the next election, it would be for none of the above. That's pretty sad. At least Pat Buchanan and Ollie North stand for something.
In 2012, I vote anything except choices A and B.
NOBODY 2012
The Democrats could have all the seats but one and still they would cave in to the Republicans on every issue.
Mandatory Insurance, now that's change we can believe in!
much difference between the republican corproate party and the left arm of the republican party which calls themselves democrat anymore..
Obama and Emanuel are looking more and more like the Bush / Cheney crew.
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They will never win my vote for having the wrong principles, the wrong tribalism, the wrong morals, being disingenuous, lying, misleading assholes. Never. I'll hold my nose and support Obama again if we don't get a strong Progressive to win in '12.
Is it the 21st century yet?
Even if the Democratic Senate majority shrinks to 54 or 55, it would have dramatic effects on the party's ability to pass major legislation, given how close the health care bill was.
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