Gas Prices Going Up; Industry Analyst Says It's 'Unlikely' We'll See Return of $4 Gas Anytime Soon
No, it's not your imagination - gas prices really are going up. Why?
Months after soaring fuel prices spurred U.S. drivers to cut back on their driving, demand for gasoline is slowly coming back, helping to push up depressed oil prices.
Demand for gasoline has nudged up above last year's levels for the past couple of weeks, government data released Thursday show. Gas prices have been hovering under $2 a gallon since November, but now that they have been low for a while, consumers might be getting bolder about their gasoline use, analysts say.
[...] The feeble U.S. economy is expected to remain a drag on gas demand and prices. While consumption is firming up, the increase from last year is tiny -- a four-week average of 0.8% last week, despite gasoline prices that are more than $1 lower than during the same period last year. Some energy experts, including the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration, predict that this year's gasoline demand will be lower than in 2008 overall.
"A return to $4 a gallon is probably not something we're going to see anytime soon," said Tom Bentz, senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York.
It's bad news for the rest of the world, though:
"The last five years saw the rebirth of the use of oil as a critical instrument of foreign policy by key resource countries, Iran, Russia and Venezuela in particular," said Ed Morse, managing director and chief economist of LCM Research. "With oil and natural gas prices having collapsed, the power of their weapons has been waning rapidly, turning creditor into debtor nations and depriving them of the revenue required to fulfill their international goals."
Just one year ago, the price of oil finished trading at more than $100 a barrel for the first time, fueling speculation about a new era of oil prices. Yesterday, oil finished trading in New York at $39.15 a barrel, and that after surging 13 percent for the day.
The overwhelming cause of the collapse in oil prices has been the faltering world economy, which has fueled the drop in consumption.
Oil use in China, which most forecasters a year ago assumed would be the engine for increasing global demand, has screeched to a halt. Paul Ting, an independent oil analyst, says preliminary estimates suggest that petroleum consumption in China fell more than 6 percent in January compared with the month in 2008. Crude oil imports hit a 14-month low, he said.
i heard one analyst on cnbc say the refineries were controling their output. they're NOT liking the new profit margin. i'm in the lake tahoe area gas starts at about $2.35/gallon. i believe this maybe a great time to purchase a gas/hybrid efficient vehicle. hedge funds were also part of the rise in oil prices many have gotten out for redemption. eventually we will see $4.00/gal. in my opinion.
But....I thought it was the ecofreaks and the DFHs who won't let us build any more refineries that cause the price of gas to go up. If it weren't for them ,why we'd have refineries in every state and gas would only be pennies a gallon.
DFHs!
Big Oil, just like Big Pharma, has our best interests at heart.
Trust me.
Oh, you betcha they do
Say what you mean. Mean what you say. But don't say it mean.
We have printed more dollars than ever before in history, it's going to have an effect, pray we don't see hyperinflation.
Goodnight, Frau Blücher
A castrated Putin and Chavez sound ideal to me.
Just one more gallon... I'm good for it, man.
and the venezuelan people will be better off than us. I would guess that the countries that are nationalizing, or have already nationalized their natural resources and banks will suffer less in this worldwide depression than the US capitalists and their political enablers who just fucked us in the ass.
The people of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage." J.K. Galbraith
Not really. Since he nationalized their oil he has not paid any of the oil companies and they are pulling out stoping his production. So most of his oil is not going to market. Also since his oil is high in sulfer it is not in high demand.
Venezuelan Crude is high in sulfur and "heavy" in that it is more tar like (which is more the point as how it is different)every other statement you made here is contrary to fact.
Venezuela has always "owned" the oil production and joint ventured with others companies to produce it. Prior to Chavez those running the Ven. Oil were corrupt and sold out Venezuela in return for bribes. Chavez replaced them and raised the percent share, something the oil companies hated but not enough to not be able to still make obscene profits in any case. So the production is still at OPEC set levels, and the US still buys much Venezuelan oil.
The only difference is that in Venezuela the money is spent on all the people and not just a few families and used politically as alternative to the US based World bank. Chavez talks Castro but does Norway.
Stop fucking driving assholes!!!!!!!!!!!!
were significantly lower than 2007, especially the last 6 months. It's probably an anomaly.
The people of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage." J.K. Galbraith
I drove this asshole the other day and it sure didn't have that "new car" smell.
heckys, you put gas prices and grocery prices in between two slices of bread and you got a corporations shit sandwich! yums!
Translation:
"Unlikely" = just in time for the summer driving season.
many more people will be living in cars.
The people of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage." J.K. Galbraith
I will be starting next week.
Seriously.
In what part of the country are you? Maybe someone could help.
So I'm going to wander now. Until I can't afford gas. I've looked, the resources to help aren't there anymore.
Selfishly I'd hope you wander up to Idaho. We need more liberalicious folk movin' in.
I'm from Houston......but nobody wants to deal with an old down and out liberal.
Before you know it the Hummer drivers will be back in full force. They sort of hid out when gas was so high, but now they are appearing a little more every day.
That's the trouble with our country, we forget lessons and seem to love to repeat our mistakes. Just because gas is cheaper isn't any reason to drive more. Damn, will we ever learn?
Say what you mean. Mean what you say. But don't say it mean.
Nothing will change until gas is too expensive. Americans are just a tiny bit smarter than lab rats (at least the slower ones...I'm talking about the rats). We are a proudly ignorant people. We learn only when it directly effects us. Don't hold your breath waiting for John or Jane Q to catch a clue on the upside of the curve.
I have always said, when you want someone's attention, hit them in their pocket book.
Had gas prices kept rising, everyone would have demanded an eco friendly car. But as soon as they began to go down, those cars were forgotten about. With the economy such as it is, hopefully people will wise up and continue to be tight with their money even when it comes to gasoline and cars.
Say what you mean. Mean what you say. But don't say it mean.
Oil prices have nothing to do with the price of gasoline at the pump. All petroleum companies are vertically integrated companies. They pump the oil. They own the tankers. They own the refineries. They own the trucks. They own the gas stations. The cost of producing a gallon of gas does not go up when the price of oil goes up. Oil is used for things other than gas. It is used to make fertilizer and pesticides. It is used to make plastics, polyesters, and nylon. The price per barrel for oil is what the fertizer producers or the plastic producers pay for oil. The petroleum industry just uses the price per barrel as a marketting tool to jack up gas prices.
You're right.
Ever notice that the price per gal of gas always goes up at the beginning of summer's driving season but never goes back down in the fall?
They are "enroning" the price of gas. I think they took it down before the election to help people forget what party is more on their side, and it didn't go back up only because the economy tanked. Supply and demand my ass. It's just like medicine or legal advice. It's really extortion. The market forces don't work when you have no compitition.
and monoploies cannot exist without the government regulating the competition out of existence..
Basically, it is foolish to oppose evil 'corporations' and then turn around and support the very government that enthrones these evil corporations to begin with.
Liberals want cheap gas, and an end to foreign energy independance. But no offshore drilling, and no drilling in alaska. Hmmmmm, i wonder if they've thought this arguement through. Thankfully the government is going to tax us per mile we drive. That'll fix everything.. ::rolls eyes::
Rothbard > Rothschild
It is a lack of government regulations that create monopolies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ordoliberalism
Why should we drill for more oil when we have the technology to make cars that get better gas millage?
http://www.marketingcharts.com/topics/asia-pa...
No doubt government is complicit in the destruction of compitition. That's one of the reasons I voted for Obama, hoping it might change for the better. It got worse, IMO, with two oil men in the whitehouse.
We need to get off gas and go electric, not waste our energy drilling more. This liberal hopes the price of gas goes up over $6 or $7 per gallon. Then we might see some progress in alternative energy solutions.
The "analysts" can give any explanation they want, but somehow I know we're getting fucked.
If a drone kills a child in Kandahar, do the crying parents make a sound?
When gas dropped, every fucktard who had their SUV's sitting idle in their driveways decided it was a great time to pull out the old gas guzzlers driving up demand and prices. When will people learn?
They never seem to draw a correlation between the price of gas and the dawning of the new and improved great depression. Do they actually expect us to believe that they are unrelated? It’s called price fixing, and they have the unrestrained power to do so.
Now why would gas prices be going UP...when demand is going DOWN?
Geeeee...let's think about that.
and gas is still really cheap in the US, comparatively.
Rothbard > Rothschild
Gas prices going up and oil prices going down. Oil price at $40.00 a barrel today. Gas prices are up compared to two months go. Oil prices 2 months ago were a little higher than today. Oil prices now are down and gas prices are up. WTF?????
I don't even have to read this crap or look at the video to know why the price of gas is moving back up... speculators! It's the deregulation of the market brought to you by the Bush cabal that caused the price to soar last year, and it will happen again (and perhaps stay above $4 gal/$135 bbl) unless the speculators are reigned in.
Yes, it really is that simple.
Every time gas is priced high for no apparent reason, the companies always drag out this garbage about refineries being closed for cleaning or some such. They "coincidentally" always go offline just before the summer driving season, for example, raising gas prices throughout the summer. This is what we're told every year. Oddly, there's never any equivalent shortage of gasoline from these mysterious refinery closings. You can still buy as much gas as you want anywhere in the country, it'll just cost you more. No one in the news media ever questions it. They swallow it whole cloth every time. So what else is new, huh?
That is, for example, if you are an adult on 1/21/61, how able are you to predict the 1960s, even knowing what you know now?
If we can't predict the past, how can we predict the future?
My prediction: Two years from now, many Americans will be pining for the good old days of the GWB presidency.
P.S. I voted for Nader.
Are there people on the earth more bitter than Nader supporters?
n/t
Republicans.
Don't try to confuse the issue with half-truths and gorilla dust.
I said "people".
:^D
Don't try to confuse the issue with half-truths and gorilla dust.
Just frustrated. I seriously doubt that any Nader supporters will ever pine for the days of Bush. But Obama is going to take a lot of undeserved blame for what is about to go down.
The people of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage." J.K. Galbraith
but I get really tired of the "not a dime of difference" crap.
I guess I'm still a little bitter about 2000.
If we reach a point where we're pining for the days of Bush, we will have completely collapsed and become a third-world country. Nothing less will make us look fondly on those years.
n/t
In two years? That's your prediction? Whatever.
An economic dive followed by a plateau.
I predict it (the bottom) will be in April 2010.
And that we'll stay there.
Now you're backtracking and editing out posts that make you look bad.
I may be wrong.
Truth is, it doesn't matter what I think.
I may well be full of shit.
But anyone who thinks the current economic mess is like any of the recessions anyone here has seen, or like the Great Depression, is sadly misinformed.
I may be out to lunch.
But I wouldn't have done what Paulson did.
Just a few days ago I heard crude oil has dropped to about $35 a barrel and prices are going up. When crude was about $100 a barrel the reason given for rising prices was the cost per barrel increasing.
So, crude goes up and prices go up, crude goes down and prices go up. Not an economist but something doesn't make sense UNLESS oil companies want to retain their elite status of making historical gains AGAIN this quarter.
Gas got ridiculously expensive ($4/gal.), so we stopped using as much. And now we have to pay more because we stopped using as much. Damned if we do, damned if we don't. And the world keeps spinning.
Demand has been rising since prices at the pump bottomed out in December.
Don't try to confuse the issue with half-truths and gorilla dust.
The very next paragraph contradicts that there is or will be any real increase in demand.
And listen to the fella in the vid, the infrastucture in the US is producing at 80% due to turnarounds at refineries- which means there's lower supply of gasoline right now, when compared to November/December of '08.
And if you read the whole thing, consumption is up over last year at this time- if only barely- and is expected to drop again.
Now if crude oil prices start to rise again, and there's a resumption of increasing demand in China and India, the prices will go way up again.
Don't try to confuse the issue with half-truths and gorilla dust.
This
is bullshit! They pull out this excuse every time the prices spike. The truth is that the refineries are always producing at 80% becasue they are always working on them. 80% is maxed out. Period.
It's a race against time for all the Corporate Bloodsuckers to rip off what is left of any cold cash the American People have saved or can borrow. You Betcha. Palin and Joe the Plumber in 2012.
Palin/Plumber 2012
And this was the time of year that gas always went up when you didn't expect it- not many people on their way to the beach like in the summer, or to the mall and the familiy's places as happens around the holidays.
And, again, listen to the guy in the video. 97% of refinery capacity in the fall and early winter, 80% now. Factor in the fact that more people are driving more now than they were....What do you expect- $0.19/gallon?
Don't try to confuse the issue with half-truths and gorilla dust.
$1.85
Consumption is up less than 1%. That's not even worth factoring in to the equation.
I guess I'm just not as willing as you to accept what the "experts" say about gas prices. Despite the excuse of lowered refinery activity, I see absolutely no evidence of a shortage of gasoline anywhere in this country that would explain the price. Every single year, like clockwork, this same refinery excuse is dragged out to explain why we have to pay higher prices for gas in the summer. I'm not buying it.
That about sums it up.
Maybe because there were rumors about a gas tax.
When prices were low this was feasible.
Now, not so much.
It has nothing to do with the fact that we're past the election. Oil giants are our friends. We do not torture. We went to Iraq to bring them freedom. If elected I"ll pull out all the troops.
Or weren't you paying attention?
Don't try to confuse the issue with half-truths and gorilla dust.
Reason #1
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia, May 16, 2008
Bush asked the Saudis to pump more oil. Bush and Cheney went and had sit down meeting with the Sheiks and Shahs and asked them to pump more oil to help offset the price increases. As much as I don't want to give Bush any credit, I must admit it had an effect. Maybe he kissed the Saudis ring finger?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/16/wor...
Reason #2
5/17/08 - Congress orders Bush to stop purchasing oil for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Quote:
As crude continued to trade at record levels near $127 a barrel, the U.S. House and Senate overwhelmingly passed legislation Tuesday that could force the Bush administration to halt filling the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. In a rebuke to the President George W. Bush, House and Senate Republicans broke with the administration on its policy to fill the stockpile, joining their Democratic peers to vote for legislation to force a stop in crude diversions into the reserve. The White House later said the president would not veto the legislation, despite having repeatedly said it was against the proposal. In the House, members approved the bill by a 385 to 25 vote, following a near-unanimous vote in the Senate approving a similar measure. In the House, the bill was passed as a stand-alone bill, while the SPR measure in the Senate was included as an amendment to a bill designed to overhaul federal flood insurance.
"The president doesn't support this legislation, because he doesn't believe it will have a positive impact on prices," White House spokesman Scott Stanzel said. "There is no evidence that it will affect the price of oil or gasoline in a meaningful way," he said.
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Content.asp?cont...
Reason #3
6/19/2008
Recession: Americans, and the rest of the world, are buying less gas.
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Americans drove 1.4 billion fewer highway miles in April than they did in April 2007, the Department of Transportation said Wednesday. That marks the sixth consecutive monthly drop and coincides with record gas prices and an increase in transit ridership, Transportation Secretary Mary Peters said. April's drop is more than three times larger than the drop from March 2007 to March of this year, which was 400 million fewer highway miles. Peters said vehicle miles traveled on all public roads for April fell 1.8 percent from April 2007. Americans have driven nearly 20 billion fewer miles overall this year and nearly 30 billion fewer miles since November, the department said.
...Supply and Demand...Economics 101.
Reason #4
July 25, 2008
FBI Raids Dutch trading company over oil contracts manipulation...
On or about the 1st week in July, Crude prices hit the record $147 bbl. The below article was posted at the NYT. Prices fell thereafter and have never recovered. This is not a slight or mere coincidence.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/25/bu...cftc.h...
Reason #5
Saudis truly fear the electric car will destroy their profits and are lowering the price to destroy the incentives for it.
From CBS 60 Minutes interview with Leslie Stahl
12/07/08
Stahl: "Let me be blunt, okay? And ask you to be candid: is it Aramco’s hope to prevent a switch away from oil? Somebody said, 'The country is the oil business.' You absolutely need to do this for your own survival," Stahl remarked.
But Jum'ah asked what was wrong with that.
"I didn't say anything’s wrong with it. But it’s a fact. You'd admit it's a fact," Stahl asked.
"Yeah, we admit a fact that yes, we depend on the oil industry. We want it to help us, you know, to develop our economy and develop the economy of the world. So what is good for the wellbeing of Saudi Arabia should be good for the wellbeing of the world, too. So there's nothing wrong with that," he said.
Let's be candid here for a moment, the oil industry exists via a cartel (OPEC) and the standard rules of economics (ECON 101) DO NOT APPLY. When Bush was adding oil to the SPR while prices were rising, it only made things worse. Stopping the inflows to the SPR provided more cushion in the market. When the Dutch trading company was raided, the price of oil began its fall from its high of $147 and is still falling today. When the world goes into a recession, there is less consumption and suppliers are gushing with extra oil and cheap prices. Something was very wrong with the old equation and our government aided and abetted the rip-off at every turn. However, please take special note that even though Americans were driving less in April, the price continued to climb up through July. Something was not kosher about the supply/demand equation.
Prices are going up, because on December 31, 2008. The restrictions to issuing contracts for the SPR ended. Bush issued huge, multi-year contracts to refill them. The cushion in the production is now gone again. OPEC has cut production significantly to affect supplies. The consumer can now get groceries and drive to work. Ridesharing will decrease. The old gas guzzler doesn't look too bad right now.
Now is the time for a substantial gasoline tax to ensure that electric and hybrid cars are still desirable. The price of gasoline to the consumer must make competitive technologies (hybrids, electric) economically competitive too. Gas needs to be around $3.85 a gallon. Aramco does not want that to happen.
to tax motorists on mileage.
Glad he saw the light on that idiotic idea. What genius suggested this to him?
their killing. And a big one at that. Like that Chevron commercial on PBS says - - "it's time to put our differences aside".
Yeah buddy sure it is. Whats billions between friends right?
predicting gas prices would start to rise again within a month of the inauguration, no matter WHO was installed...
Gas will be AT LEAST $3/gal by July 4...mebbe by memorial day...
mark my words...
That's what I think too. 3.bucks by summer. Maybe sooner.
2 days ago it was 2.45 here. It's been going up in increments of .05.
No more a penny here, or a coupe of cents there. It's a minimum of a nickel a pop.
What is your conceptual, continuity?
It's a fact. Deal. Don't like it? Tough.
Production peaked in 2005, then dropped a bit, then peaked a tiny bit above 2005's level in 2008. Now its back down.
Click and READ THIS REPORT from the DOE. This is what we need to do. NOW. Not later, not next year, NOW.
It's called the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe it.
-George Carlin
Wholesale gas, RBOB, is about $1.02/gal right now. Retail gas shouldn't be more than about $1.80/gal.
They were saying that we would probably never see $2/gal gas either. But if big oil is making money, then im happy. after all, their executives making billions is in the interest of national security.
Love these 'analysts'.....Someone should tie them to a chair and have a little conversation with them, and try to explain that people are NOT getting 'bolder' ... For the most part, people are having to look for jobs and work at jobs that are further and further away from their home....for a WHOLE LOT LESS than what they were making.
'bolder in their driving'.....Are these people for real?! But then, as usual, these 'analysts' don't give a horse's patoot .... they have their 'cushy' jobs, so what do they care.......!
Wouldn't it be nice to be on the opposite side of things for a change! Just for a little while....????!!!!
Anybody who thought gas was going to STAY at about $1.65 a gallon(in Michigan)is a full fledged,certifiable MORON!
We have been in iraq stealing oil for some time. Stockpiling it for when OPEC runs low. Now we run the show Saudis go back to making baskets for sale. USA is smart were preparing and hoarding. They realized $4 gas was upsetting the citizens more than expected prices suddenly dropped HMm. Their trying to make as much money and not cause a civil war. Playing us like puppets when they hold all patents for cars that should and would get 120mpg. We went from first flight around 1919 to Supersonic scramjets that will do Mach 7 but we cant figure out the fuel injection thingy. BSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS> I want a civil war, its time unless you like being someones puppet.
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