..illegal war but we can't make enough Tamaflu for our neighbors.
What a world!

That's a lot of coloring books! http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8...

... just in case. $92. Goddamn price-gouging pharmacist.

Anyway, I got a phone call from the CDC. Well actually, it was a call from my cousin, who is an MD/PhD research scientist for the CDC (Center for Disease Control, in Atlanta).

She says the worry is not about this current flu -- rather, it is about the third wave of this flu, which is projected to hit sometime next fall. The virus is expected to mutate and come back in a second, slightly worse wave. Then possibly mutate once more, with a potentially killer strain that will be hard to beat.

So anyway, she was worried enough to be calling her relatives and getting them to lay in a supply of Tamiflu while there is still some available. Damn, though -- 92 bucks for a single dose! Now I'll feel wasteful if I don't get to use it ...

I agree that news outlets have one thing in mind: ratings. The more fear they can strike into you, the more likely you are to watch. But this is not to say that there is no reason to be concerned. As with any influenza outbreak, the more you know, the better prepared you are to handle it. However, the media consistently compare the current outbreak with previous pandemics, particularly the 1918 pandemic, and the chances of such a disastrous pandemic are exceedingly slim. When the Vice-President of the United States goes on television and essentially tells people to not go outside and to avoid crowded places, it not only demonstrates his ignorance on the subject, but spreads that ignorance to everyone who listens to his nonsense. This causes undue panic, and makes people think they may die just by getting on a bus, subway or airplane. The truth is, no one really knows how serious this outbreak, or a subsequent winter re-emergence, will be. But to compare it to the 1918 influenza pandemic, largely because they both happen to be H1N1 strains, is ridiculous.

By all estimations, the 2009 outbreak is already a pandemic. However, a pandemic only means that cases have been reported in various countries around the world. It by no means suggests that this disease is going to be as severe as the 1918 virus. It is estimated that between 70 million and 100 million people died in the 1918 pandemic. So far, only 26 people have died worldwide as a result of this virus, 25 in Mexico and 1 in the United States. Compare these figures to the annual death toll caused by “regular” influenza: in the United States alone, more than 36,000 deaths occur annually as a result of influenza, and between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths occur worldwide. Clearly, the 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) virus has a long way to go to reach either of these statistics.

In my professional opinion (I am a virologist), it is unlikely that this virus reaches anywhere near the severity of the 1918 pandemic. First of all, the disease reporting is far better today than in 1918. When cases occur practically anywhere in the world, those cases are reported and everyone around the world knows about it quickly. A disease as severe as the 1918 influenza is not going to sneak up on us. This gives us time to prepare. One of the good things that has arisen from the media firestorm is that people are taking the outbreak seriously enough to go to the hospital as soon as symptoms arise. Early treatment is key to preventing the development of severe complications due to influenza infection. Furthermore, we actually know how to care for patients now, unlike in 1918. A virus would have to be extremely virulent to cause as many deaths as the 1918 flu, and this virus has thus far given no signs of being that virulent. So, we should all calm down and use some common sense when thinking about this. Panic helps no one.

By the way, if you don't take Tamiflu pretty much immediately after symptoms develop, it is not going to help. And, for some people, the side effects are worse than the flu. Not to say it is a bad drug, just a word of caution before rushing out to stockpile this very expensive drug.