June 29, 2016

When Nate Silver talks about elections people tend to listen. Silver got 49/50 states right in 2008, and all 50 in 2012.

Source: Business Insider

Renowned statistician Nate Silver on Wednesday revealed his general-election forecast on ABC's "Good Morning America," and he's placing Hillary Clinton at a near 80% favorite to win in the fall.

Silver, who runs the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight, handicapped Clinton's current odds at 79% while giving Donald Trump a 20% chance of winning the general election.

"We're at halftime of the election right now," Silver said. "She's taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime."

"There's a lot of football left to be played," he said. "She's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll."

"Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general-election campaign," Silver said. "He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent."

Can you help us out?

For 17 years we have been exposing Washington lies and untangling media deceit, but now Facebook is drowning us in an ocean of right wing lies. Please give a one-time or recurring donation, or buy a year's subscription for an ad-free experience. Thank you.

Discussion

New Commenting System

Our comments are now powered by Insticator. In order to comment you will need to create an Insticator account. The process is quick and simple. When registering you will also be presented with the option to tie all your old Disqus comments to your new Insticator account. Please note that the ability to comment with a C&L site account is no longer available.

We welcome relevant, respectful comments. Any comments that are sexist or in any other way deemed hateful by our staff will be deleted and constitute grounds for a ban from posting on the site. Please refer to our Terms of Service (revised 3/17/2016) for information on our posting policy.