When Nate Silver talks about elections people tend to listen. Silver got 49/50 states right in 2008, and all 50 in 2012.
Source: Business Insider
Renowned statistician Nate Silver on Wednesday revealed his general-election forecast on ABC's "Good Morning America," and he's placing Hillary Clinton at a near 80% favorite to win in the fall.
Silver, who runs the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight, handicapped Clinton's current odds at 79% while giving Donald Trump a 20% chance of winning the general election.
"We're at halftime of the election right now," Silver said. "She's taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime."
"There's a lot of football left to be played," he said. "She's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll."
"Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general-election campaign," Silver said. "He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent."