Whoops! There Goes McCain's Iraq Strategy
By Steve Hynd Thursday Aug 21, 2008 3:00pm
The WSJ says Maliki and Bush are about to agree a timetable that agrees with Obama's timetable.
Even "Saint Pet" Petraeus says the Sunni Awakening is at least as responsible as any other cause for the reduction of violence in Iraq -now Maliki's people say they're ready to throw the Awakening under the reconcilliation bus and declare it illegal - perhaps as early as November 1st. You can bet the Awakening folks won't be thrilled about it and the received wisdom is that they'll express their displeasure by returning to violent insurgency.
McCain's beloved Surge won't have accomplished a lasting reduction and Bush will have already committed the US to substantial withdrawal. Could McCain's Iraq policy get any more tattered? Will the establishment media notice as Republicans do another 180 and claim that the prospect of renewed violence means the US must stay in Iraq, just as the (almost certainly temporary) reduction in violence meant the US must stay in Iraq?
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"Will the establishment media notice as Republicans do another 180"
Have they noticed any yet?
Is St. McCain going to contradict Petraus, one of the greatest leaders in military history (according to McCain), and say the surge was the sole cause of the downgrade in violence and the Awakening had little impact?
One has to wonder if putting the awakening to rest is part of the entrenchment strategy? With a number of troops (and mercenaries) still in the country there will arise a need to tamp down the likely usurpation. When the time comes Maliki will have to go along with any agreements he signed. This is contingent on McCain winning in November.
And if the idiotic Maliki declares the Awakening "illegal" and tries to arrest its leaders then the whole country will descend into a shitstorm again, with or without the SURGE!
It really feels like they are stabbing John in the back. Guess old habits die hard!
Damn those Georgians!!! If they hadn't moved into Russian protected areas (apparently thinking the US would back them with force if needed), the Russians wouldn't have had to drive them out, and we wouldn't have been exposed as militarily impotent, and now we need our army back so we can show the world how tough we really are. Damn our allies, and damn our enemies, too!!!
Addressing a withdrawl timetable, even considering it publicly, only emphasizes how desperate the GOP is in this election cycle. They're so panicked about Obama that they'll completely, and utterly contradict what they've preached since 2003 if it means they can take that away from him in the debates.
Who's taking bets on whether they'll paint is as "victory"? 2012,..hmmm,..just in time for the next election.
beancounter @ 6:
The military impotence of the U.S. is no secret. Just look at who we pick to fight and how poorly we do. The ONLY U.S. military successes in my generation are Panama and Grenada.
If they throw the Sons of Iraq under the bus in November, that still gives McCain 3 months of campaigning about what a wonderful successful victory Iraq has been, before the proverbial shit hits the fan.
unbelievable. cnn is spinning this issue as a toss up and interviews rethug leslie sanchez (the one who lisps) but doesnt interview any dem. this is clearly a win for obama. mccain wanted to stay for 100 years and he wouldnt take maliki's word at face value on the timetable.
25 Things You Might Not Know About McCain
http://novemberblog.blogspot.com/2008/08/25-things-you-might-not-know-ab...
25 Things You Might Not Know About McCain.
I'm a typical Amerikan. Not very good with the mumbo jumbo and "words" in your article up there. But what I think you're trying to tell me is.....WE WON!
Woo Hoo! When's the victory parade?
Or did George already cover that five years ago?
Funny, this professor featured on CNN just said that Iraq works to McCain's advantage, not Obama's. I wish they had had someone to counter that claim, but sadly no. I hope they report this soon.
Well, there goes Bush's dream of an occupation. Do we really think the Iraqis are going to tolerate our presence there for 100 years?
Mansion Accomplished!
I want to know what happens when we stop those '$300 payments' week/(month?) to each of the Sunni's for this faux peace we are experiencing in Iraq?
You know what's going to happen: It's true that if Maliki pulls the plug on the Sunni Awakeners, then the whole country will erupt in violence again.....this is true with or without the surge....I didn't realize there are some 100,000 of them.
What's going to happen is that Bush will start pulling troops soon, and will do so about the same time Maliki cuts the strings on the Sunni Awakeners; with all hell breaking loose again, he, and McCain, will say, "I told you so.....so let's surge again," just in time for the presidential elections.
This is easy. Whoever wins in November will not be able to take as much credit for ending the war because Boosh thought of it first. They always do this.
"...A timetable that agrees with Obama's timetable". Beware Obama's timetable, as it is illusory and deceptive. It is stretched out over a 16 month period which does not strike one as the best way of supporting the troops, by leaving them in that slaughterhouse for such an extended period of time. Obama's timetable is also contingent according to Obama upon conditions on the ground which means that American soldiers could actually remain in that abattoir even longer than 16 months. But even after his phased [not immediate] withdrawal finally takes place, Obama is advocating that 32,000 to 80,000 U.S. forces be left behind in Iraq which, of course, will do nothing to mollify the rage of the Iraqis as they continue to see that little American flag which they have grown to hate so much on the uniforms of American soldiers. The devil is in the details and the details in Obama's withdrawal plan, such as they are, are anything but reassuring, both to American military personnel and especially to the Iraqis, who will continue to be oppressed and humiliated and shot at and killed, all unjustifiably, by American soldiers.
Ah ha, pwned again McTrollop!
I've been glad to see that Obama has been able to spend the last month or so systematically dismantling the MSM's meme of McCain's "expertise" on foreign policy. Unfortunately, the MSM wants to keep this as much of a horse race as possible, so they fervently hand wave, spin, and obfuscate to make it seem as though the sudden convegence of everyone's (the Bush administration's, the Iraqi government's, and in some cases even McCain's) policy on the same fundamentals Obama has been calling for since day one is a win for McCain. Can someone please explain this false logic to me?
obama's plan for a timetable/withdrawl was a more accepted by the public than mccain's shoulder shrugging we might be 100-1000 years who cares as long as there are no causualties. this i believe is/has been used for political means....i think it's been known for some time that the iraqi's want the u.s./coalition out. obama had to become political regarding this issue......no matter what he said it was spun
General Jack D. Ripper @ 17:
I wish I could say I disagree with you, but I can't. It looks like that to me too.
Time for that enormous Republican amnesia to start. Within a year you won't be able to find any Republican who ever argued against a timetable. They've ALWAYS been at war with Eurasia.
Frybread @ 4:
Soooooo true and accuate. If the Shiites do demand the removal and disarming of the
"Awakening"(Sunni's), that will cause the violance to esculate, and just when "things"
are going soooo well(at least according to some). When the Iraq Gov. Assembly just
recently admitted that it could not reach an accord as to distribution of land/resources
between the Shiites/Sunnis and Kurds, and cancelled the election scheduled for Oct. 1st
(now delayed until sometime next year), it could be anticipated that more turmoil was
soon to follow. This is the first clue that much, much dishormony and conflict still
remains between the religous tribes within Iraq...and WE can do nothing about it, so
"Send Our Troops Home"..
So, we have been paying our enemies NOT to attack us? Isn't this the classic definition of appeasement?
What a pack of boneheads... From Chimpy Cheney and McCain right on thru to Petraus... These fuckers are being plaaayeed.... Manipulated, punked, being set up like a clueless boobs being sucked into a three card molly scam on a downtown street corner.... Meanwhile people continue to get killed and maimed, we Americans reputation and our constitution continues to be spat upon by our own leaders and the nations wealth continues to be frittered away over FUCKING NOTHING!!!! Nothing worthwhile anyway.....
The surge is working, the surge isn't working, we need to be in Iraq 100 years, we'll be out by 2011... They like us, they don't like us.. My friends, vote for me, I've got experience, no wait, vote for me, I've got the audacity of hope... Ensuring peace thru strength, I'll not engage in nation building, we're fignting to establish democracy in (you name it region)...Maliki is our friend, Musherrif is our friend in the war on terror, the 'war on terror', the 'war on drugs, Afghanistan is on our side.. Afghanistan is a hotbed of terrorists.. Pakistan is our friend, noo, Pakistan is not our friend.. Osama Bin Laden, Osama been laughin.. Oil is the goal, nooo, peace in the mideast is the goal, noo protecting Isreals right to exist is the goal... HLS, domestic spying is OK, we must give up our liberties to save ourselves, blah blah blah, mission accomplished... blah blah fucking blah and it fucking never goddamned ends... never!!!................
Ya know what? I'm fed up with of all of it.. It's all SHIT!!! What a pathetic charade... And now we get to choose between McCain or Obama and increasingly it seems there isn't any significant difference in what either one will do in power... What the fuck is that all about??? It would be laughable if it wasn't killing and ruining so many innocent lives everywhere. If anyone can make any kind of real sense out of any of this shit, and have some idea on how to deal with it, without being neck deep in the continueing corruption themselves??... Fuck, they probably ought to be running this madhouse instead of the lunatics at the controls currently..
These politicians and military big brains??? All these pundits and so called experts on foreign policy or fiscal responsibility or military one upsmanship... They are total punks and myopic ninnies, but they ain't the only ones gettin played around here..... Know what I mean??? Yea... pitchforks and torches... Maybe that IS where it's all headin....... JD
borodino @ 26:
Well, as I understand the "payments to the Awakening/Sunni's, it was paid to them to NOT attack their enemy; being the Shiites, not U.S. military personnel.
Jack Damage @ 27:
Welcome to my world! Won't you come on in?
beancounter@29;
Come on in to your world? You mean like the Simon and Garfunkle 'hello darkness my old friend thing'? You mean like that? Maaan, I'm already soaking in it.. We all are..... JD
That's some nice, if *inaccurate* spin there Cernig.
How does 2011 agree with Obama's time table? I thought Obama was saying 16 months?
Assuming he meant 16 months from the time he takes office, that would mean he was off by about a year...
If anything, this would seem to be somewhat of a compromise between what Obama and McCain have been saying (Obama having indicating 2010 and McCain having said 2013).
Please do not misrepresent the facts. I appreciate that democrats want to win, but in truth, the deal being struck with Iraqis does not match either McCain or Obama's stances.
If Bush brokers a deal it can only help McCain.
Everyone concerned about immunity for US troops:
McClatchy: Iraq still demanding withdrawal date, right to try U.S. troops
The dates could be adjusted if security and political progress in Iraq deteriorate.
This is major caveat that Dumbya and St. McCain (if he is elected) could use to re-deploy U.S. troops into Iraq's major cities.
Hate to break it to you, but McCain's Iraq strategy is not only perfectly intact, but his hand is in fact now strengthened.
Again, not based on logic or common sense, but rather on the dynamics of presidential politics.
Ahem...
"My friends, the Surge(tm), which my (secret Muslim) opponent opposed has succeeded. I am pleased to announce that, thanks to the Surge(tm), which my (dubiously American) opponent opposed, we may now begin bringing our troops home with the honor and victory they deserve!"
Oh, what's that you say about the Maliki government turning on the Sunni Awakening?
"You hear a lot of things, but I know the situation in Iraq. I've been to Iraq. I know that the Maliki government is not attacking the Sunni Awakening. They're standing up to al-Qaeda."
Um, but the facts don't support that concl...
"I know how to win wars. I was a POW. I learned by watching the Vietnamese."
What does that have to do with...?
"My friends, the Surge(tm) has worked!"
forget all this bullshit. the war was a gigantic mistake and was totally mismanaged. everbody with half an ounce of brains knows this. bottom line is that mccain supported this crap and obama didn't. who was right?
Who Is Randy Scheunemann?
And None Dare Call It Treason
By Patrick J. Buchanan
8-22-8
Who is Randy Scheunemann?
He is the principal foreign policy adviser to John McCain and potential successor to Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski as national security adviser to the president of the United States.
But Randy Scheunemann has another identity, another role.
He is a dual loyalist, a foreign agent whose assignment is to get America committed to spilling the blood of her sons for client regimes who have made this moral mercenary a rich man.
From January 2007 to March 2008, the McCain campaign paid Scheunemann $70,000 pocket change compared to the $290,000 his Orion Strategies banked in those same 15 months from the Georgian regime of Mikheil Saakashvili.
http://www.rense.com/general83/whois.htm
Maybe McCain listened when Rove decided that making war is a great political tool, especially when troops die in a foreign land and those that would oppose are automatically branded as unpatriotic.
Didn't we all agree to stop using the phrase "throwing _______ under the bus?" Even in jest, it sounds too ridiculous after being over-used all this year. The only time people should be thrown under a bus is during a screening of Mad Max: Road Warrior.
Eric in Ottawa, no spin at all - Obama's plan also calls for a number of US troops to be moved out of Iraq and all US troops to be moved out of urban areas within 16 months of January 2009. And a drawdown to zero over three years.
It's far slower than I would personally like, but it's better than "staying the course" as polcemen in the next round of intramural civil wars - Sunni vs Shiite, Kurds vs Turks and Iranians, Kurd vs Sunni (Kirkuk and Diyala), Kurd vs Shiite (Kirkuk and Diyala again), Sunni vs Sunni (awakening vs the Gree Zone Sunni poarties in Anbar), and Shiite vs Shiite ( Dawa/ISCI/Badr vs Sadrists/Fadhilla in the South).
Regards, C
CNN are already disingenuously asking "who this benefits?"
The fact that they're even speculating if this vindicates McCain for supporting the "surge" when it was an unpopular position (bullshit,the MSM were complicit in pushing for it) makes it even more vital for Obama to own this issue before McCain takes credit for withdrawing the troops. Bush and the Republicans know staying in Iraq is a loser . that's why this announcement was made.
McCain says he'd have picked Cheney, Rumsfeld: "Our Strongest Team"
P.D. @ 15:
Thats what I want to hear about. Remember any recent talk about permanent bases in Iraq? Right off the radar screen. Any signed agreements should be addressing any intent to keep bases operational and made public. Do you notice that even the Democrat leadership does not want to discuss this issue. They always talk about troop withdrawals but they never discuss who ( Blackwater ? ) will actually stay. I hear there are 58 bases they want to keep in their back pocket. I want to hear Obama`s take on this one. Another Korea?
I said it 3 months ago. By the election, the accomplishments of the surge will begin to unravel and so will security. It may make a huge difference on who wins.
redcat @ 37:
No, the bottom line is: who will win the framing battle. It does not matter what people with an ounce of brains thing. "People with an ounce brains" is just fancy talk for "out of touch elitists."
Unfortunately possession of 28.35 grams of brains is not a requirement to vote.
McCain will frame this as "America is great and we won in the end." Obama will frame this as "even Bush agrees with my plan."
Tell me, who has the more appealing (not more correct, not more logical, not more reasonable, more appealing to the average voter) message? They guy who says we are great and have victory? Or the guy who says he agrees with George Bush?
This is going to be a brilliant general strategy. Bush will spend the next few months in office implement whatever parts of Obama's platform he reasonably can.
It's the perfect trap. Democrats can't oppose it, because it's their own platform. Obama can't run on it because it's happening now...no point in promising to make it rain LAST Tuesday. McCain can use it to claim that Obama is more like Bush than he is.
yakfitguy @ 44:
Hopefully, Obama has more to run on than the collapse of Iraq.
Cernig @ 40:
" Cernig"
Is what you are saying is what will transpire ? I wouldn't have guessed . The locals will resume what they have been doing for the last 1000 years.
Yes but.
The Bush Administration ( and the Neocons) have just spent $ 1 trillion dollars . over 4000 American soldiers are dead and close to 30000 American soldiers have major injuries , and America is back to square one. Saddam II is close at hand.
Is there something wrong with the US Federal giovernment's ( ie. Washington's) foreign policy, in the Mid East ?
Remember. The CIA orchestrated a coup in Iran in 1953. Present day Iran is a product of you know what.
SCHRODINGER'S CAT @ 47:
Yes they have no sensible policy or people with experience / intelligence, you just know that the old hands and history buffs were forced out to make way for Regents grads in the Foreign Service.
That and AIPAC and AEI dictating US foreign policy, a recipe for disaster.
Noah @ 8:
Panama pop: 2,529,902 (CIAWFB July 1992), Grenada Pop: 83,556 (CIAWFB July 1992)
Gulf War One was a success as far as the West was concerned, but a bloodbath for the Iraqis, and of course phase one of the current Iraq debacle.
Its very telling of the moral fiber of a country in how they fight their wars, and treat defeated enemies, mercy is considered a good virtue by thinking people.
The carnage of Basra Road being rather overkill and a blatant war crime festival, mostly brought to us by the xtain xenophobic USAF.
And as John McCain knows, it proves that you have big cajones when you drop bombs from up on high on women and children.
MountainMan23 @ 34:
There is history to US "SOFA"s (Status Of Forces Agreements) in the mid east.
After the CIA illegally overthrew Irans democratically elected gov ("Operation Ajax"), U.S. troops & spooks had immunity, per the SOFA. The Ayatollah Khomeini made a big deal out of infidel invaders being above the law, it helped rally Iranians for the "blow back" of the century: The Iranian revolution. Which resulted in the angry Iran we're supposed to fear today.
(This measure) Immunity has "reduced the Iranian people to a level lower than that of an American dog." -Ayatollah Khomeini
Of course the DC Mafia tried to repeat history in Iraq asking total immunity for everyone.. great idea, hand anti US Iraqi radicals the EXACT issue that fueled Khomeinis revolution against the US installed govt in Iran. .
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