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Pakistan-India War? By Accident, Maybe

A few days ago, all the experts were saying there was no chance of a war between India and pakistan as a consequence of escalating tensions following accusations of Pakistani involvement in attacks on Mumbai last month. Now, with reports that both nations are moving some troops to their mutual border, everyone is talking about the chance of conflict. But if that conflict happens, it will be inadvertent - an accidental exchange of fire arising from both sides' readiness to repel the other which then runs out of control - rather than a deliberate act.

Pakistan has reportedly moved some 20,000 soldiers from its border with Afghanistan, a move that will suit Pakistan's ruling elite's short term political purposes very nicely. It has also been flying 24 hour patrols on its side of the India-Pakistan border to guard against Indian probes as the Indians try to find out for themselves what the Pakistanis are up to and has cancelled officer leave. But there hasn't as yet been a major mobilization of troops towards the Indian border. India has moved some troops and heightened its military's readiness too, but there's been no general mobilization of reserves as yet. India has twice the standing armed forces of Pakistan and a vastly higher reserve manpower (there are respectively the 4th and 6th largest armed forces in the world) - in a general war between the two, 20,000 troops are a drop in the ocean and both sides know it. Indeed, that's arguably why Pakistan developed its nuclear weapons in the first place.

So there aren't widespread signs of war preperations yet and in any case both nations have to be aware that, both economically and in terms of internal stability, they cannot afford war. It's more likely that both sides are simultaneously playing to their own publics and seeking to enlist international support for their own agendas. Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution told McClatchy:

"There is nothing (the Singh government) can do except make threatening noises toward Pakistan," he said. "Both countries are rattling their sabers. These are two weak governments that are clearly trying to get the Americans nervous so they put pressure on the other country (to back down)."

He called the current atmosphere "a precursor to a crisis" that could erupt because of the high possibility of a misstep on either side.

"We are in a period of touch-and-go," he said.

It's not just America - the Chinese, who are even more Pakistan's military ally than ever the US could hope to be and cannot be happy about even the smallest prospect of an inadvertent nuclear war on their borders, are now involved in trying to get both countries to scale back their posturing too.

Crossposted from Newshoggers

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18 Comments
theWalrus's picture

The Bushies only have a few more weeks to get The Rapture going.

Hold on to your hats!

ConcernedCanuck's picture

US drones going into Pakistan's airspace could never possibly be misinterpreted? Yikes. Cross fingers.

curtilingus's picture

A little Viagra ought to calm those two down.

fastfeat's picture

?


"Parachutes are allowed in checked or carry-on baggage, but may not be worn in flight."

---Southwest Airlines

curtilingus's picture

That assertion needs a link for support.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEHTa-7pTBk

These monkeys solve all their conflicts through sex. Genetically they are very close to humans and chimpanzees, but they are not violent. Mostly because they have un-abated, crazy ass orgy sex all the time.

Seriously.

around me when I'm getting enough. Sadly, these days, 'tis not the case...


"Parachutes are allowed in checked or carry-on baggage, but may not be worn in flight."

---Southwest Airlines

Vmp's picture

war against Palestian

Ruth's picture

We can be so proud that our occupied White House has showed by example that going to war unilaterally is really, really dumb.

kablooie's picture

Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India have something major in common: The women in these nations are utterly oppressed. It wasn't so long ago that suttee was still in practice in India, and girls have no rights at all, still.

It sure would make sense to do everything possible to elevate the human rights of women all over the world, so that they could work to prevent war in their home countries. Most moms do not have either the time or the energy for testosterone-driven genocidal idiocy.

Vmp's picture

Pls. update your knowledge... Woman's Rights are far better than Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Krackonis's picture

Yes America still houses 150,000 slaves. Or more. Living in Suburban homes and the status of women here is getting worse by the day.

War against countries ONLY MAKES BANKERS RICH.

Thats it.


'The devil crept into Heaven, God overslept on the 7th, the New World Order was born on Sept 11th.' - Immortal Technique

moonuranus's picture

The situation is probably similar to what US faced when it was attacked on 9/11.Though Taliban was not explicitly involved, Al Qaeda operated from it's soil. Similarly though Pakistan Government may not be involved in this, the terrorists operate out of their soil. Afganisthan's strength is puny compared to the US,plus it was action at a distance. India Pakistan share a border and though India's forces are superior, Pakistan can boast of military strength much greater than Taliban.
Pakistan's influential people always boasted of bleeding India through a thousand cuts. Their civilian government pleads helplessness and simultaneously acts brazen while turning a blind eye towards terrorists.
Empowering women, that being a very good objective itself, has nothing to do with anything happening here. Nor is this fight due to lack of getting any.
Am not being a conspiracy nut here. This issue is bigger than Kashmir or India and Pakistan.Seriously people, you would want to know more about what is happening in this part of the world a little bit more deeply. And thanks to cernig, this topic is getting a bit more mention than usual, since it affects way more than south Asia.

Krackonis's picture

A British MP came out on Christmas eve saying Al Qaeda is CIA funded operation.

What does that tell you about the "War" on "Terror"?


'The devil crept into Heaven, God overslept on the 7th, the New World Order was born on Sept 11th.' - Immortal Technique

moonuranus's picture

Taliban is Afghan and Al Qaeda is primarily Arab. I really doubt US has got anything to do with the latter.

gurucingh's picture

Who are you to pass judgment on the world's oldest standing civilization i.e. Indus Valley Civilization (Present day India)?
When was the last time you set foot in my village in Punjab?
Educate yourself about the ground-reality before making assertions. India is a new democratic nation (barely 60 years old), she has her problems and she will deal with it. She did suck up to the Russians while Pakistan was a member of CENTO. She has her poor, she has her needy and there is enough copulation in there to make over a billion babies, but when there is blood of innocent citizens lying on the streets, the least you can do is not suggest the people to go fuck themselves.

Jackie's picture

Israel bombed Syria thinking this would give them the chance to destroy Palestine, it didn't work. With 24 days left for Bush in office, Israel did what the US did with Iraq LIE. The United Nations let the US illegally invade Iraq based on lies so why not Israel. One person did in Israel, 280 innocent men/woman/children have been killed by Israel. Israel is hopes to draw other Middle Eastern countries out to help Palestine so Israel can draw Obama in to the conflict. Israel has shown they are truely one of the Axis of Evil in this century while using God's name as a front. As we have seen the US Administration commit so much evil and now the results we will see the same with Israel. Notice how PM Olmert is indicted for many crimes while holding himself up as a man of God. Ameerica can't back criminals and like Syria is buying weapons from Russia to protect the citizens from another Israel attack. So should other Countries do the same as the Bush Administration has given Israel weapons and Nukes over the pass 8 years.

Ex-Canuck's picture

There is no such thing as an inadvertant war, or a war "by accident".

Wars are promulgated for several reasons. Among these reasons are some that led bush to gleefuly attack Iraqi and Afghani civilians:

- revenge (against poppy, and for poppy - what a fucked up family!)
- the greed of the war machine (generally wars enriched the "friends" of bush and cheney, as well as they personally)
- racism (bush/cheney and the others who pushed hard for the war because of their desire to remove "brown" people from the earth)
- religion (xtian fanatics against muslim fanatics - unfortunately innocents tend to get in the way, but no matter...)
- the pleasure of killing (bush, cheney, rumsfeld, rice, all the other neocons, and those in the media who set the drumbeat: savage, limbaugh, hannity, coulter, malkin, etc., etc., simply get orgasmic about it all)
- insanity (all of those involved are likely psychopathic, or at least sociopathic).

WAR IS NEVER ACCIDENTAL.

Krackonis's picture

False Flags do as False Flags does...


'The devil crept into Heaven, God overslept on the 7th, the New World Order was born on Sept 11th.' - Immortal Technique

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