Pakistan Redeploying to Indian Border
By Steve Hynd Friday Dec 26, 2008 1:30pmAnti-neocon conservative analyst Stephen P. Cohen tells Indian TV that Pakistan is unable or unwilling to control terror groups on its territory.
An AP report quotes Pakistani unofficial officials as saying that Pakistan is moving thousands of troops to its border with India, snubbing Bush administration offcials who had pleaded with the Pakistanis not to.
The troops headed to the Indian border were being diverted away from tribal areas near Afghanistan, officials said, and the move was expected to frustrate the United States, which has been pushing Pakistan to step up its fight against al-Qaida and Taliban militants near the Afghan border.
Two intelligence officials said the army's 14th Division was being redeployed to the towns of Kasur and Sialkot, close to the Indian border. They said some 20,000 troops were on the move. Earlier Friday, a security official said all troop leave had been canceled.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.
Both countries have said they want to avoid military conflict over the attacks. But India has not ruled out the use of force as it presses its neighbor to crack down on the Pakistani-based terrorist group it blames for the attack.
Pakistani Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has promised to respond aggressively if attacked but reassured India Friday that Pakistan would not strike first.
The Pakistani military has denied the AP's report and its anonymous Pakistani military sources. They claim that the military is undergoing regular, scheduled rotations, and that if an AP reporter saw trucks moving out of a tribal area, those troops were on a scheduled rotation, and not acting under new orders.
Of course, the Pakistani military has proven that its official pronouncements are entirely trustable...
Just days ago all the analysts were saying that there was almost no chance of war between the two nuclear-armed nations but now one retired Pakistani general has told the AP it's to deter US-style missile strikes on suspected militant targets:
"It is a message to India that if you think you can get away with strikes, you are sadly mistaken," said Talat Masood, a retired general and military analyst based in Islamabad.
I don't think the analysts are wrong - war is still highly unlikely although tensions have just ratcheted a little higher. The Pakistani military has always defined itself exclusively by its opposition to India and large swathes of both the military and the Pakistani general populace have become more and more hostile to fighting what they see as "America's War" along their Western border with Afghanistan. Using the current situation as a convenient excuse to walk away from that war and back towards facing off India was always on the cards, will be popular on Pakistan's streets and will strengthen the military's political position as the new civilian government attempts to be less than its puppet in many areas of domestic and foreign policy.
However, as my colleague Fester noted in an email, this redeployment means that supply lines for US and allied forces in Afghanistan will become more vulnerable and that militants along the Afghan/Pakistan border will become more active. That's a feature rather than a bug as far as much of the Pakistani military and the ISI intelligence agency are concerned. That the Bush administrations diplomats and generals have been unable to prevent this redeployemnt, despite their constant claims that Pakistan is a staunch ally in the War On Some Terror and recent assertions that Pakistan is committed to helping India investigate then root out the extremists responsible for the Mumbai attacks is indicative of just how badly they've been had by Pakistani spin and doubletalk over the last eight years.
Crossposted from Newshoggers
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Fearing troops movements
Because a movement that massive gotta stink.
We should get out of Afghanistan immediately.
militarily important to the U.S., let's have a draft and go all out.
It's either that, or get the fuck out.
Any in-between course of action is folly and will be disaster.
This will be Obama's Vietnam.
He's already committed.
I like that ad, "Is Your Husband Gay?"
If you have a penis, I'd say the safe guess is yes.
:-)
Far be it for me (as a gay man) to tell stories.
If he were my husband, he better be!
Kashmir...!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73dvrir5kig
Adding to that wonderful "Bush Legacy".
"...the Pakistani general populace have become more and more hostile to fighting what they see as 'America's War'..."
It is America's war, and I am sad that Canadian forces are there when they should be at home. It even makes me hostile.
especially when there are plans to send even more troops into what is a no-win situation. Instead of peace talks and attempts at detente by our 'leaders', they foolishly and blindly continue send our troops into a hopeless quagmire of death and destruction. My heart goes out to the unfortunate people of Afghanistan.
The madness continues.
Nothing good is going to come out of this. 2 nuclear powers that hate each other.........
I did not know they hated each other. Could you briefly tell me why they hate each other? Thanks
http://www3.telus.net/public/aschoepp/pak_ind...
what is she, sitting on her ass as usual?
this is probably where the u.s. will take the opportunity to go on the attack being that the pakistani military is now on the other boarder and cannot observe us crossing into their country to do cross boarder raids. i wonder how many troops they are going to leave behind on the western boarder? they really weren't doing anything militarily to the tali-ban anyways...
for the Queen doncha know!
to the tali-ban anyways..."
Sure they were. They were arming them.
What has she ever done? Name one thing.
If they blow the world up I don't have to go job hunting monday.
Occupation of a country that has never been successfully occupied!
And Afghanistan borders two nuclear powers to the south that hate each other!
And, bordering to the north is a nuclear power that hates us!
What could go wrong? Iran on the western border?!
Carlyle Group will be rolling in dough again!
fondling all that blood money with his bony fingers and laughing with evil glee.
Really? Never?
Timur did it.
Alexander.
This just betrays a lack of knowledge.. This territory has changed hands so many times over thousands of years.. In the days of Mahabharatha, it was called Gandhar.. then in the days of Alexander it was called Kamboj, the Indo Scythians claimed it, the turks conquered it.. HOw stupid can you be? Just because the brits couldnt conquer it and then they never really retried.. I mean really there is nothing there to conquer... The whole thing is a giant wasteland
I guess that I am pretty stupid; I would not term the conquests in the Afghanistan area by Alexander and Timurlane as successful.
Some historians credit the fractious warlords of the area as having been the final blow to Alexander's imperial plans because they would submit only to renege and attack.
He was unable to leave small garrisons behind lest they be overrun.
Timurlane was so frustrated with the unrest of the warlords that he had 100,000 Afghans slaughtered.
I stand corrected.
I've read that the Mongols would scare cities into surrendering by sending a "survivor" from the last "massacre" into the target city. There are a lot of those "massacres" that aren't backed up by evidence.
But there were a lot of human skulls stacked up near cities that Timurlane took by force. That guy was vicious.
The "Bush legacy" will live on for decades. Cans open: worms everywhere. He knew it, they (neocons) planned it, it will be.
I doubt I'll ever be able to forgive as I have only decades left. I'm afraid, until my dying days, the "Bush legacy" will haunt the planet, and probably get worse.
I'm trying, but unfortunately, I see all of it as a product of the kind of place the USA has become, in totality.
This deployment comes despite no redeployment of the Indian troops along the border... The Indians didnt even threaten war (the closest they have come is to hint "no options are off the table" ).... I would not blame Bush. Successive administrations have bought the horse crap Pakistan has been selling for a long time. Everybody including neocons, old cons, liberal cons do not understand the big threat Islamic extremism poses to this world. They go after every religion that is a "threat" to them.. Hinduism, Judaism and Christianity. I do no mean to say millions of middle class peace loving Muslims dont exist... but at the same time we can not deny the root of all this nonsense is the sense of "persecution" these people feel toawrds secular pluralist societies...
Is the U.S. still sending $10 mil a year to Pakistan?
It was $10 billion that we gave them, that was reported wasted.
Here
& Here
like Afghanistan, the CIA could send Pakistan and India viagra so they would be too preoccupied screwing to shoot at each other. Come to think of it, maybe the Bush Regime should all take viagra, so they could screw each other, instead of the rest of the globe.
see the headlines now. Violence breaks out at the border between Pakistan and India today, but instead of shooting each other, the armies threw down their arms, and screwed the living hell outta each other! The CIA is denying any involvement. In other news, troops have all fled the capital of Afghanistan, after serious injuries from Afghani tribesmen carrying blunt instruments charged them. Head trauma was the most severe in the northern sections of Kabul. We are unable to show video due to the graphic nature of this violence.
"Indian Prime Minister Singh met with his military chiefs on Friday, and there also have been unconfirmed reports in recent days that India has moved troops to Rajasthan, a region that borders Pakistan. Pakistan fears that India might launch an invasion from Rajasthan into Sindh province, aiming to sever the northern and southern halves of Pakistan."
McLatchy.
Regards, C
And I have for two years now. This is the worst I've seen it. For those who don't know, India and Pakistan have been kind of at war for decades, and really ever since separation. There is shooting on a regular basis in Kashmir. A friend of some friends is stationed there as a soldier. He returns with stories of cross border raids by each side. Right now everything is a simmer, but it's like cooking pasta with the lid on. Everything's fine till starchy water erupts all over the stove.
I've lived through several major bombings that all lead back to groups inside Pakistan. Usually these attacks were targeting Indian Muslims who militant Pakistani Muslims consider traitors for not leaving India. Of course there have been other bombings not associated with Pakistan, but the really big and nasty ones tend to be from Pakistan.
Pakistan also harbors terrorist leaders who are wanted by India, but will not extradite them. Pakistan claims they can't find the person and the Indian newspapers run photos of the guy getting out of a car or walking out of a building the next day. The whole things a joke! Pakistan can't stop these groups because too much of Pakistan believes in all this crap!
There's an observation I believe by Edward Luce, but I could be mistaken, that India built a nuclear bomb to prove it could do it. Pakistan built a nuclear bomb to have a powerful weapon.
Here are the 5 days headlines here in India
Tuesday 23, December
“Pranab: We Are Alone”
“The external affairs minister, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee, suggested that India was all alone in its efforts to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan 'which is the greatest terrorist danger to peace and security in the entire civilized world.'”
Wednesday 24, December
“Pak Army Dares India”
“The foreign secretary, Mr. Shivshankar Menon, has made a reference to a dimension of the recent terrorist attack in Mumbai which taken to its logical conclusion, makes an appropriate Indian response inescapable.”
Thursday 25, December
“Pak gathers jets on border”
“Raising the level of its aggressive posturing, the Pakistani Air Force is deploying strike aircraft at its forward bases and flying sorties near the border with India, even as the Indian Air Force is ensuring full defense preparedness to meet any eventuality.”
Friday 26, December
“Evacuation alert after Pak moves”
“In an atmosphere of heightened military activities across the border and aggressive posturing by Pakistan's Army and Air Force, New Delhi has activated the country's civil defense network for any eventuality.”
Saturday 27, December
“Pak moves a feint: Pranab”
“India on Friday asked Paksitan to desist from creating 'war hysteria' and focus on acting against those behind the Mumbai attacks, even as reports spoke of Pakistan Army bolstering its presence on the border and rationing fuel supplies to feed the military.”
The feelings here are very hot. When a friend of mine sees another headline about Pakistan she mutters “Those bastards!” At work viral e-mails run around demanding politicians finally do something. India is a very tolerant place in general, but there certainly have been violent religious riots. I fear India's on the brink even if its politicians are not. Another friend has decided to go to Delhi to be with her family in the event Pakistan launches a nuclear missile on the city.
I don't know how close to midnight we are here, but the general mood of the people is that something has to be done. We are at a fork in the road and not choosing is not an option.
...this has been festering too long. Bush could not have attacked Afganistan without taking the help of Pakistan's bases. This one predates him.
When the then Soviet Union attacked Afganistan, US with the help of Pakistan created a whole bunch of mercenaries to fight them. Instead of that being just a defence of Afganistan, the war morphed into a religious struggle or Jehad. So when Soviet Union was defeated, one was left with plenty of men and weapons sitting idle. Since Kashmir was always a festering wound in Indo-Pak relations, these people were moved east by Pakistan's intelligence to fight in and for Kashmir. Thus the birth of different terrorist groups. It is no coincidence that Kashmir issue flared up immediately after the defeat of Soviet Union. This is the background behind these terrorist groups in Pakistan. And these people are fighting for an issue much bigger than Kashmir.
Ultra conservative Muslims believe in a concept called Ummah, which can be crudely translated to world of Islam. Their ultimate ambition to go back to their zenith, when they were ruling from Spain to South Asia sometime in the 14th century. All these acts should be looked from that perspective also.
This issue is not going to be solved by treaties between governments, nor blaming Bush nor blowing the peace pipe. Petro dollars fund these people and there are enough recruits from poorer Islamic countries.
US contributes to this problem by backing the wrong set of allies and treating India and Pakistan as equals in the problem.
As Tavison correctly puts it, In India there is a simmering rage among the population while the government is trying admirably not to make the things boil over. There is also a feeling of frustration towards western world and media for treating this as yet another incident of violence which keeps happening in this part of the world and somehow India is also culpable. The prevalent mood here is that India has to be go alone in this and not dependent on western powers. Pakistan is going between conciliatory statements and brazen pronouncements depending on who is in power at that moment. While Pakistan army is fighting it's own people in the provinces of Waziristan and Baluchistan, it won't take steps to curb the groups based on it's soil, which attack India. But the main worry is Taliban has come out in support of Pakistan. Something got to give. It is not going to be pretty.
To add to Cernig's observations, the recent burning of NATO trucks and equipments in Pakistan's border with Afganistan could be seen in that light. The signal could be "If US does not muzzle India from attacking the camps within Pakistan, this will be happening regularly in the future".
Disclosures: I am Indian and I registered moments ago!
I was going to continue farther in my post, but decided to stop. Your very correct assessment has inspired me to write what I erased before.
I opposed both Iraq wars. I've opposed almost every war going back to WWII which I believe had to be fought, so I'm a pretty peaceful guy. When the Taliban blew up the Buddhist statues under Clinton I wanted to go to war. I am in favor of being in Afghanistan now, but we need to be doing more and we need to decide what we ultimately want.
Muslim extremists across the entire globe have declared war on the very foundation of our societies. Freedom of religion, speech, association, are all denounced by these people. How do we respond? The Muslim world is held hostage by these groups. How much do their views reflect the views of ordinary Muslims? How deep is this desire for Ummah? How much do the leaders of these countries believe in this cause?
And what are we willing to do about it? Are we willing to declare war on all Muslims? I hope not. But, we need to do more. We have done a terrible job with the Muslim nations and Muslims in our own countries. Look at the nations responsible for 9/11, London, Spain, and Mumbai. Those are our allies! Look who we condemn and threaten, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libia. They didn't do anything to us. Look at actions taken by Israel that even Israelis condemn, but western newspapers and politicians refuse to condemn.
We need to determine who our allies truly are, and who our enemies truly are. We need to get rid of colonial and cold war thinking and be the best friend the Muslim world ever had or its worst nightmare. We have done a pathetic job being friends to the Muslims and we've been a joke as a source of fear.
We must start taking this as seriously as our enemies do and stop pandering to two faced, spineless leaders who tell us whatever they think we want to hear while nodding and winking to the bomb makers in the next room.
This really crushes me because I really hate war and violence, but frankly, I've had enough. I've had enough wondering if the train I'm on is going to blow up. I've had enough fearing to go to Charminar because there may be another explosion or riot or pissed off Muslim. I really hate the stares from inside burkahs where I don't know if it's accompanied by a snear or a smile.
I hope not to have offended anyone except those who want me to either convert or die. Those people can ............!
Ah, that is the crux of the issue isn't it, finding out what to do without exacerbating the problem? The Islamic terrorists fight against the Muslims who don't share their worldview as much as they fight the people of other religion. To them, they are all the same. So it is not exactly a religion against religion issue. It is one version of religion against all others. As with any ideology, moderate people will always be under pressure from the fringes. The fringe people always are self righteous and view people who are balanced in their views as traitors to the cause.
There are states who support this brand of Islam because it gets these people of their backs and also because their rule is unpopular and they want their population to be subdued in the name of religion. In the case of Pakistan, it was Zia-ul-Haq and senior and junior Bhutto. So in Pakistan, the beautiful,gentle and enlightened version of Islam, Sufism, is getting replaced by a more hardlined version.
So what can be done? The bull-in-the-chinashop way of attacking a country or a religion will push the moderates into their camp. Propping up a person having moderate views to rule a country, like Shah of Iran or Najibullah in Afganistan, will be disastrous too. Thinking that resolving Kashmir or Golan heights will bring peace on earth is simplifying a complex issue. Branding a whole religion will make it worse.
Frankly, I am worried, because the world does not recognise for what it is. It can start with dehyphenating India and Pakistan as equals and looking the countries without vested interests.
I think the wests biggest failing is that it has never made any attempt to reach out and help the average moderate Muslim. Hamas builds schools and hospitals and then we wonder why they win elections. We have a very belligerent attitude to the Muslim world and yet all that bellicosity amounts to nothing when we finally use force. Look at how in the US a Muslim congressman was actually asked by a reporter why the reporter should not be afraid of him. Claiming Obama is secretly a Muslim strikes fear into the hearts of many Americans. It's preposterous and sad.
I don't know what to do about the internal divide amongst Muslims. It is by far the biggest problem. How big is the problem? How much is the cause supported? How much is, as you say, placating unhappy citizens? I wish moderate Muslims in western countries who are free to express themselves would stand up and denounce this view of Islam, but instead they protest cartoons and murder Dutch film makers. Or, say nothing when those things happen.
I live in Hyderabad where there were a series of bombings targeting those very Muslims you mentioned. I wonder why those people who are even more victimized by all of this do not feel they can turn to India or the US or Europe and say, please help us. They do not speak for me. How badly have we managed relations with the second largest religion in the world when they feel hiding and keeping quiet is their safest option?
I know brute force attacks against nations, especially Iraq and Iran will only draw us deeper into the quagmire. Afghanistan I believe is a more defendable action. Pakistan needs some serious behind the scenes work, but the reason I mention Israel is because we need to give the moderate Muslims the felling that we do desire a just and equitable world. Until we can get moderate Muslims to open up to us, we will always be behind in this war.
I think many people would be surprised that the Muslim population of India is about the same as the Muslim population of Pakistan. And it's Indians, not Hindus, who are concerned about Pakistan.
I wish there was a simple solution, but I hope we can at least become realistic about what this battle really is, how serious our enemies take this battle, and are willing to find solutions that help the moderates and repair relations with the non-extremist Muslim world.
At the very least I am glad to see C&L starting to pay more attention to what I believe is the country both least understood and yet most important to the future of the US and the world.
You are right about the reactions of the moderate muslims to terrorism. While in India there were prominent muslims and muslims organisations that condemned these attacks in the name of their religion, in general, the muslims in the rest of the world, were more vociferous in the opposition to cartoon characters than to an event which took people's lives. They just can't keep quiet,especially people living the west, they need to step up against the people who ruin their religion. Until then, the world will not know how much the cause is supported. I really hope the support is very small but I am not too sure. I don't know if Friedman is popular among these parts, but he wrote a very good essay on this.
Every nation has a right to defend itself and US actions in Afghanistan is perfectly valid. So is the case of Israel and India. Only thing is, wars are not always nation against nation, though a nation is responsible for actions launched from their territory. I hope the world recognises that instead of grossly oversimplifying the problem.
Maybe the lukewarm reaction of the world to the problem in India, is the way it is portrayed. Since the issue is very complex, the people in the media are lazy in the way they cover these events. BBC didn't want to use the word terrorists and used the word gunmen, like it is some gang war. Some of the views express by the "experts" on TV were appalling, due to the lack of knowledge. I don't know how many of them contribute to the foreign policy.
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