Preview Of Arizona And Michigan Primaries

State: Arizona

Type of election: Primary

How it works: This is a standard closed primary where only Arizona Republicans who were registered before January 30 will be able to vote. 29 delegates are at stake. There is no Democratic primary.

Official election results: Arizona Secretary of State

Republican candidates: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (all others have dropped out or are polling at less than 1 percent)

Previous performance: In 2008, Romney finished second to John McCain with 35 percent of the vote while Paul finished fourth with 4 percent. Barack Obama finished second to Hillary Clinton with 42 percent.

Newspapers: Arizona Republic, Phoenix New Times, full list

Television stations: Full list

Progressive blogs: Arizona Eagletarian, AZ Netroots, Democratic Diva, Friendly Fire, Random Musings, Rum, Romanism and Rebellion

Latest polling: New York Times:

  • We Ask America: Romney 43 percent, Santorum 27, Gingrich 21, Paul 10
  • PPP: Romney 43, Santorum 26, Gingrich 18, Paul 11
  • ARG: Romney 39, Santorum 35, Gingrich 11, Paul 9
  • Rasmussen: Romney 42, Santorum 29, Gingrich 16, Paul 8
  • NBC/Marist: Romney 43, Santorum 27, Gingrich 16, Paul 11

    Nate Silver gives Romney a 99 percent chance of winning.

    Bottom line: Romney needs an easy win or two to maintain front-runner status and it looks like Arizona is going to give him one.

    State: Michigan

    Type of election: Primary

    How it works: While technically, the primaries are closed, Michigan does not require voters to state their party when registering. On primary day, voters choose which ballot they wish to vote on in writing, and can only choose one party ballot. 30 delegates are at stake.

    Official election results: Michigan Secretary of State

    Republican candidates: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (all others have dropped out or are polling at less than 1 percent)

    Democratic candidates: Barack Obama

    Previous performance: In 2008, Romney won the Michigan primary with 39 percent, Paul finished fourth with 6 percent. Because of the early date of the primary, Obama withdrew from the primary and did not appear on the ballot.

    Newspapers: Detroit Free Press, Detroit News, full list

    Television stations: Full list

    Progressive blogs: Michigan Liberal, Blogging for Michigan

    Latest polling: New York Times:

  • PPP: Romney 39, Santorum 37, Paul 13, Gingrich 9
  • We Ask America: Romney 37, Santorum 33, Paul 18, Gingrich 13
  • Mitchell: Santorum 37, Romney 35, Gingrich 9, Paul 8
  • Rasmussen: Romney 38, Santorum 36, Paul 11, Gingrich 10
  • ARG: Santorum 36, Romney 35, Paul 15, Gingrich 8
  • Baydoun: Romney 39, Santorum 31, Gingrich 9, Paul 9

    Nate Silver gives Romney a 64 percent chance of winning and Santorum a 36 percent chance.

    Bottom line: Silver understands the numbers better than I do, but this one really looks like a toss-up to me at this point. A Santorum win or close second means that nothing will be solved any time soon. A last place finish for Gingrich makes it hard to see how he can keep going much longer. As always, Paul is largely irrelevant.

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