SOTU Scoring: The Speech Raised Approval Ratings from Independents
If the president's speech seemed full of vague generalities and not the inspirational partisan battle cry you might have wanted, that's because the speech wasn't really aimed at us, but at independents. And in that light, it was a resounding success.
From Democracy Corps, a Democratic polling firm:
Democracy Corps conducted dial testing of the speech with 50 independent and weak partisan voters in Nevada, followed by focus group discussions with voters who shifted toward approval of Obama’s performance in office. This difficult audience for Obama was a heavily Republican-leaning group (46 percent Republican, 20 percent Democratic) that split their votes in 2008 (52 percent Obama, 46 percent McCain) but had moved away from him over the past year, with majorities expressing disapproval with his job performance and unfavorable views of him on a personal level.
Obama saw a substantial, but not overwhelming, spike in his overall numbers with his personal favorability rating and job approval both increasing by 16 points. But his speech drove much bigger shifts among these initially skeptical swing voters on several key issues.
Most important, Obama managed to decisively reverse the view that he was too close to Wall Street. In a Democracy Corps survey from just before the Massachusetts election, we found that a 49 to 41 percent plurality said Obama and Democrats were more concerned with bailouts for Wall Street than creating jobs for regular Americans. Entering the evening, swing voters in this group agreed with a 48 to 16 percent plurality saying Obama “puts Wall Street ahead of the middle class.” But after the speech, the number disagreeing with that statement jumped a remarkable 50 points, to 66 percent. Moreover, Obama saw a 38-point increase in support for his banking reform plan and a 40-point increase in the percent saying that he “stands up to special interests.” Obama’s strong words for the banks clearly resonated and generated some of the strongest scores on our dials of the night from Democrats, Republicans and independents.
[...] For these voters whose attitudes shifted from disapproval to approval of Obama’s performance as president, one consistent question remained: can he deliver? Unlike most attributes that shifted during the speech, “promises things that sound good but won’t be able get them done” remained very high (78 percent pre-speech to 74 percent post-speech). The “shifters” in these post-speech focus groups are waiting for results, and they pointed specifically to passing health care reform and job creation initiatives as critical reforms that must be delivered. While they see the Republicans as obstructing every Obama initiative, they nonetheless expect Democrats to pass major legislation with their large majorities.
Among their findings:
* While everyone had a strong negative response to the banking bailout, the Democrats hated it even more.
* The strongest positive response was a 99 from both Democrats and independent on the idea of removing tax breaks for businesses who outsource jobs.
* There was an 80% positive response on the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell.
Hopefully, Obama can translate his words into actions with more than adequate jobs and health care. We've got to get over the mantra "government is the problem", at least for those who can't read past a 5th grade level or understand government roles in an 8th grade civics class. Something surely went wrong with America's economy between the Carter and Reagan admins, but the government shouldn't necessarily be to blame. Again, people have to get over the "government is the problem" mantra.
Let's not get all gooey over this stat.
Most POTUS get a little bump from the SOTU even when they diss the SCOTUS.
Polls are really meaningless the day after.
Give it six months.
"I can't keep doing this on my own with these...people."
Is it zero-sum
Has it affected the standing of the court?
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
members of Congress. When did they stand?
"I mean Romney is the most conservative on illegal immigration and I don't think Ronald Reagan could get elected in California today."
Ann "Clipped" Coulter
With the Dems and Rethugs as our management team?
Ever since the Civil War, American politics has been in a rut between the Dems and repubs.
.
"I mean Romney is the most conservative on illegal immigration and I don't think Ronald Reagan could get elected in California today."
Ann "Clipped" Coulter
after a few stiff drinks even a lousy band sounds great.
Cheers!
;)
"The strongest positive response was a 99 from both Democrats and independent on the idea of removing tax breaks for businesses who outsource jobs"
Kerry pushed this same idea in 2004, and clearly it's nothing but a ruse, as cutting off tax breaks would have zero effect on the offshoring of American jobs.
All in all, Obama's speech was nothing more than the same Clintonian politics the Democrats have been mired in for the last 18 years.
Not surprisingly, the Senate today gave Ben Bernanke another 4-year term on a 77-23 vote. Again, nothing ever changes with the Democrats. No matter how angry the voters get, no matter much they demand change or how much they suffer financially, you can bet the crooks and liars that make up the Democratic Party will continue to screw ordinary people in favor of the wealthy and powerful.
Then vote Repubican and STFU.
Are you going to keep voting Democratic while getting nothing in return? Of course if you're a Southern DLC type, then maybe you are getting what you want out of the Democrats. There are many progresives, though, that are tired of being shafted by the Democrats, and we are in fact going to start voting for Republicans over these jerks, as we showed in MA. If this country is going to be ruled by Republican ideology, then Republicans should be the ones in charge, not phony Democrats.
Republicans don't get your twats in a flutter over MA. A REAL LIBERAL Dem with a spine could've cleaned your boy's clock.
Not that type. I'm a DFH. DLC won't associate with me.
Where have you been the last 40 years? It sure as hell hasn't been in this country. In the last 42 years the White House has been Repubilcan for 29 years of that. Even when Democrats held the majority in Congress they usually didn't control the White House. Therefore the only thing you know is the Republican ideology which is why you're upset. Hell, I'm upset. But I'm also realistic that Dems have a very short window, so whatever they can do I'll take.
In other words, during the small windows Dems have had to get their agenda through(13 yrs in 4 decades) they have done remarkably well at keeping this country afloat after being gutted by Republicans..
We ? That will be the freaking day when I vote for a Repug , I can promise you that'll never happen and I'd wager most here would say the same regardless of how disappointed in or pissed at the Dems they are , vote independent , Dem or don't vote at all but vote for a Repug ? Ain't gonna happen . Comparing Obama to the last eight year of Bush / Cheney and the Repugs , there is no comparison . It's the same old story , without any help from the Repugnants the Dems have to try and clean up the mess Repugs made and this time the SOB's made one hell of a mess .
The people like freequark think that Obama and the Dems should have everything finised by now. Or somehow they can swing to the left and suddenly the whole country will jump on board. Granted, some of the shit that he is continuing which GWB started doesn't make me happy, but I'm not gonna' give up on them after one year. Washington and politics in general doesn't move that fast and they need the time and support to get it done.
Well, whether Obama(nable) would have to swing to the left depends upon whether you listen to his pretty words or look at his ugly actions. He's a militarist, a corporatist, and a Wall Street fanny-kisser. Even the right didn't want the Wall Street bailout - and that was under Bush. Have you forgotten the odd alliance of real progressives and conservatives int he House that tried to spare us that heist? On how many policies did any significant number of Republicans break ranks with Bush as they did on the Great Wall Street Giveaway?
Continuing some of Bush's policies? How about continuing and expanding the worst? How many countries are we now targeting, in addition to Iraq and Afghanistan? The majority of the public - all the public - want us out of Iraq and Afghanistan immediately.
Government spying on the citizenry? We've got more of it under Mr FISA II. Torture? Lack of real concern over the environment?
Add to that totally new garbage, such as "health care reform" that is really health insurance company and Big Pharma care.
No, my problem with Obama and the Dems is not that they haven't turned everything around and finished correcting all the Republican wrongs in a year. My problem with them is that they haven't begun to try.
You cannot solve the problems created by Bush's policies by continuing Bush's policies. It is not a matter of time.
Those who were positively impressed by Obama's speech were probably the same people who were so ready to believe that this oily flim-flam man was the progressive/ populist he tried to make himself appear on the campaign trail - and the opposite of what his voting record proved he was. Some people will swallow anything.
For an in-depth view of how Obama and the Dems are not correcting Bush's policies:
The More Things Change
I'll say to you like I said to freequark. Then vote Republican and STFU if you think it will be any better.
While President Obama's suggestion of "shifting taxes from foreign companies to American companies that create jobs here" scored a 99, not one single Republican applauded when he mentioned it.
* There are two types of Republicans: millionaires and suckers.
"Mugsy's Rap Sheet": Recording history for those who seek to rewrite it.
trusted news source, picked Glenn Beck as the second most popular TV talker, and would probably strongly or mostly agree to the question "Are Mom, Apple Pie and the Flag good?"
"I mean Romney is the most conservative on illegal immigration and I don't think Ronald Reagan could get elected in California today."
Ann "Clipped" Coulter
What I noticed is that immediately after the speech, most mainstream TV news outlets were saying that the speech was a good speech, that Obama is clearly a gifted speaker, that he reached across the aisle yet firmly challenged the R's, and that he boldly admitted mistakes, unlike his predecessor. Then I woke up this morning and even MSNBC was talking about how bad the speech was, how its gonna cost Obama points with both his base, and with conservatives, how he can't decide what kind of policy he wants to follow, how giving money to the small banks is socialist, etc.
Looking at these two starkly different responses, how much more clear can you get that the way that the cycle works EVERY TIME is that the non-newscorp media starts to say what they think, then the GOP distributes the talking points to the usual suspects and they start re-shaping reality. Before long, everyone is repeating what the GOP talking points tell them to, even those who don't get them. It happens every single time. How much more obvious can it be?
The strongest positive response was a 99 from both Democrats and independent on the idea of removing tax breaks for businesses who outsource jobs.
This is a no brainer. Almost everyone I know has a friend or relative that has lost a job to someplace overseas. Protect American jobs.
Only when the last tree has died
and the last river has been poisoned and the last fish has been caught
will we realize we cannot eat money.
when the going gets tough obama gives a speech
we needed a Roosevelt who knew and stated who the enemy was now we have a carter that gives great speeches.
it has worked for three years but in a dumbed down society great speeches work year after year after year. Has worked three years and counting. Obama was better suited to be a law professor not a president. I.e. great speeches.
I live in a state where a senator crashed three planes before he finished flight school crashed two more planes before he saw combat then shot down over nam the first 20 hrs of bombing men women and children and is called a hero by most Americans for his bombings and voted back into office term after term after term for his hero status.
and you think this country is not dumbed down and imperialistic yea right on that one.
It was a great speech , I don't know what more he could have said and I was impressed that he did slap the Repugs and the traitors /saboteurs on the Supreme court up along side the head . He was right , what he inherited , from whom , that he can't do it alone and that he's made some mistakes . I really like the man , I just wish he had a tiny ( at least ) temper and mean streak , I'm just afraid that his rope is endless and his patience is unlimited ... to the point of being a fault , a critical fault as a President . Trying to work with the Repugs is absurd at this point , he's still trying to ride a horse that's long been dead .My verrrrrrrrrrrry humble opinion . LOL
Since that time, I ameliorated my views and just thought that Americans were pathetic for different reasons, but now I am convinced that Americans really are just about the dumbest earthlings out there. It would be one thing if a few numbskulls would change their opinion about Obama after supposedly listening to his speech, but 50%? I have always wondered who are these people whose opinions shift with the wind and think so differently depending upon what day of the week it is. This has got to show that America needs to undergo a forced re-education. Yes, that is a pun on re-education camps in the Soviet gulag, but no it is no joke.
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