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C&L Opening Bell, 12-15-10

Good mornin'! Let's get started:

  • Republicans on the financial crisis investigation commission reached new levels of insanity yesterday when they chose to adopt a blame-it-on-ACORN narrative to the causes of the financial crisis:

    The four Republicans appointed to the commission investigating the root causes of the financial crisis plan to bypass the bipartisan panel and release their own report Wednesday, according to people familiar with the commission's work.

    The Republicans, led by the commission's vice chairman, former congressman and chair of the House Ways and Means Committee Bill Thomas, will likely focus their report on the explosive growth of subprime mortgages and the heavy role played by the federal government in pushing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase and insure them. They'll also likely focus on the Community Reinvestment Act, a 1977 law that encourages banks to lend to underserved communities, these people said.

    The Republicans' report is expected to conclude that government policy helped inflate the housing bubble and that prices weren't expected to crash because the government pushed homeownership so aggressively.

    This cute little narrative -- which I called the "We didn't want to give houses to all those swarthy poor people, the government made us, WAAAAAAAH!" narrative -- has absolutely no basis in reality. This chart from Barry Ritholz tells you everything you need to know (click to enlarge):

    As you can see this housing bubble was global in nature. And looking at the chart you can see that the U.S. actually had things relatively good compared to Ireland, Spain and the UK. And I'll let you in on a little secret: The Community Reinvestment Act did not force Irish, Spanish or British banks to make no-doc mortgages. The reason so many banks made so many crappy loans over the years is the simplest of all reasons: Because the securitization process made it profitable for them to do so. The incentives within the system were such that the original lender never had to live with the consequences of making a crappy loan because he would just fork it off to Wall Street, which was hungry for loans to bundle up into CDOs. Ratings agencies had no incentives to point out that these CDOs were full of crappy loans because they were being paid by the banks to rate their products favorably. For good measure, add in the fact that the Fed kept interest rates low during the buildup of the bubble and gave banks lots of easy money to play with. And finally, when banks started issued synthetic CDOs backed primarily by unregulated credit derivatives, well, you have a recipe for a massively over-leveraged financial system where everybody is basically making money out of thin air.

    Heidi Moore has a more-nuanced take over at DealBook that makes roughly the same points:

    The government-sponsored enterprises fueled bad lending but it was the investment banks’ packaging of the same bad mortgages over and over again into toxic collateralized debt obligation bundles that created billions of dollars in losses. If every mortgage could only be securitized once, the losses would have been bad but not horrible. But because fancy Wall Street chicanery reproduced those mortgages and mirrored them in bundles of increasing size, the investment banks took far bigger losses than they would have otherwise. As those losses grew, the banks struggled to find enough cash to stay well capitalized. Investors grew scared that the banks would not be able to, and the government had to step in to bolster the banks’ capital with the Troubled Asset Relief Program and other bailout programs.

    (Incidentally, people like Dean Baker were writing about this way back in 2004 when nobody else was talking about it. But for some reason people like Dean Baker never get appointed to key government positions. Only people who couldn't see a multi-trillion dollar housing bubble get that sort of work.)

  • We've been on a "happy news roll" for the past couple of days and I think this qualifies:

    The Obama administration has selected Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray, a vocal critic of the banking industry, to head the enforcement division of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, according to a Treasury official.

    Cordray, a Democrat, has been a leader among state attorneys general in the probe into mortgage foreclosure practices. The probe is examining whether banks submitted faulty legal documents in foreclosure proceedings.

    This has "Elizabeth Warren lobbying" written all over it. To which I say, "Thank God!" If Obama had taken more advice from Warren over the past two years and less from the Geithner-Summers tag team, he wouldn't be in the predicament he's in today. Let's hope this is the start of a trend (though I'm cynical enough to know it isn't).

  • Another data point you can use against Glen Beck fans you know who are screaming "ZOMG TEH INFLATION!!!!"

    The cost of living in the U.S. rose less than forecast in November, indicating higher prices for commodities such as fuel aren’t filtering through into other goods and services.

    The consumer-price index increased 0.1 percent after a 0.2 percent rise the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a gain of 0.2 percent. The so-called core measure, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, also rose 0.1 percent, matching the median forecast.

    I'm much more worried about 10% unemployment and a massive foreclosure crisis than I am about inflation at this point in time. In fact, I would gladly trade some inflation if it meant people were getting back to work and demand for goods started rising.

  • Ireland's parliament voted to pass the Permanent Servitude to the Eurocrats Bill €85 billion EU-IMF bailout package today. This bit tickled me:

    Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan said it mystified him that anybody in the Dáil could oppose the measure.

    “The suggestion that the Opposition could negotiate a better interest rate from the IMF is, frankly, laughable,” he added. “The rate of interest charged by the IMF is calculated using the standard formula which it applies to all countries.”

    Another way of putting this is: "The Opposition tells you they could have given you a crap sandwich with wholewheat bread, lettuce and tomatoes. Balderdash! We know the IMF only serves its crap sandwiches on Wonder Bread with no vegetables! There's only one party that will get you the best deal on crap sandwiches and that's Fianna Fáil!"

And finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't express happiness at the House voting overwhelmingly to repeal Don't Ask, Don't Tell yesterday. Now it goes back to the Senate where it should get done... but this is the Senate... they have been known to pull stuff like this in the past:

But, uh, let's hope the Senate is more competent than the Washington Redskins. Gulp.

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14 Comments
Bainbridge22's picture

Thanks for the chart, I'll use that to squash the Beckerheads in my hometown.

Nangleator's picture

"Ratings agencies had no incentives to point out that these CDOs were full of crappy loans because they were being paid by the banks to rate their products favorably."

How the hell do ratings agencies still exist? The whole concept relies on trust, and they are proven liars. There will always be profit in them lying to us.

Same thing goes for all stock market investment. You are being manipulated and lied to. The only thing your analysts and advisors care about is that you put all your money where the manipulators can get to it. THIS IS NOT FOR YOUR BENEFIT.

futt the wuck's picture

Once again...shall we all thank the folk responsible for the creation
of this financial sh*tstorm?

Phil "You're all whiners" Gramm
Jim Leach
Tom Bliley

Republicans all.

Now for some fun reading (if you're up to the task)....

(Financial Services Act of 1999)

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-106s900enr...

EP3's picture

I agree regarding trading inflation for jobs.

But it would be nice if the oil barons didn't get to raise their prices while the small grocery store owner has to cut his prices on milk and cheese.

Evet's picture

again who'd a thunk it!

reluctant leader's picture

CPI rose just .1%? Are you kidding me?

Our real inflation figures are manipulated to keep things that are tied to the inflation rate low, like Social Security payments. We also get barraged with propaganda on a daily basis. When it comes to the economy the government is almost 100% propaganda these days. We have to at least keep up the appearance we have everything under control. If there are two things that affect us every day, it's the price of food and the price of gasoline, yet these two things are excluded from most inflation figures. Plus, we continue to see deflation in the housing sector so I'm sure they include that in their calculations.

Bernanke is inflating the money supply. The way he's doing it is causing an increase in commodity prices. This is a fact and I can tell you it's resulting in larger price increases than the government is telling us. Price inflation usually leads to wage inflation, but Bernake has also taken care of this because he knows when unemployment is high, wages can be kept low regardless of consumer prices.

Our dollar WILL be devalued. But since the value of our dollar is relative to other currencies it remains to be seen how much purchasing power Bernanke's plan will result in.

chervilant's picture

Uncle Miltie was wrong...

St. Ronnie was wrong...

Bushco was wrong...

...from the standpoint of the hoi polloi.

From the perspective of the uber wealthy, things couldn't be rosier, and they could give a flying f**k who's right or wrong, since they are continuing to grow their wealth unabated.

....AND OBAMA’S ACQUIESCENT APPEASEMENTS ARE HELPING THEM DESTROY THE AMERICAN ECONOMY AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Republicans ARE practicing seditious DEMAGOGUERY and anti-democracy OBSTRUCTIONISM intended to destabilize our economy for purposes of political exploitation.

Republicans AREN'T making a sincere effort to STOP the bleeding THEIR incompetent leadership and failed policies created. Instead, they're using inflammatory lies and accusations as a smokescreen to conceal their subversive agenda, which is to cause President Obama and America to fail so they can blame Democrats for the consequences of THEIR calamitous mismanagement.

Republicans ARE preposterously professing that THEIR disgraceful political WHORING had nothing to do with the banking, real estate, stock market and employment catastrophes that resulted.

Republicans ARE trying to hamstring Democrats to prevent them from repairing the damage caused during a Republican presidency that was irresponsibly enabled by Republican Senators and Representatives.

Republicans ARE offering ridiculous arguments meant solely to disrupt and prevent progressive change. They'd rather divide America and create political gridlock than endure the political consequences of effective Democratic governance.

Republicans AREN'T the LOYAL OPPOSITION; they ARE the ENEMY WITHIN whose mercenary priorities have eroded their moral and ethical standards to the point that duplicity and betrayal have become their preferred modus operandi.

It's one thing to advocate their conservative beliefs; it's another thing entirely to willfully sabotage America's government because an effective Democratic presidency would not be vulnerable to the greed, fears and hatreds that have produced and sustained the despicable Republican anti-government corporatism and anti-Christian faux theocracies that are poisoning and crippling American society.

Trantorian's picture

Keep it up.


"Someday somebody related to some of these sufferers, these victims, these collaterally damaged souls, may try to kill you. And I have to tell you, I think you’ll have it coming." - Christopher Cooper

Donaldd's picture

Republicans LOVE pushing back to 1997 and Ignore all of Bush's Housing for the poor plans.

BUT: Bush fit the battle of housing reform, Housing Reform, Housing Reform
Bush fit the battle of housing reform and the Banks Came Tumbling Down!

The American Dream Downpayment Initiative (ADDI) was signed into law on December 16, 2003. The American Dream Downpayment Assistance Act authorizes up to $200 million annually for fiscal years 2004 - 2007. ADDI will provide funds to all fifty states and to local participating jurisdictions that have a population of at least 150,000 or will receive an allocation of at least $50,000 under the ADDI formula. ADDI will be administered as a part of the HOME Investment Partnerships Program, a formula grant program

In FY 2007, Congress appropriated $24,750,000 for ADDI. Previously, Congress appropriated $74,513,000 in FY2003 and $86,984 in FY2004, $49,600,000 in FY2005 and $24,750,000 in FY2006. HUD has issued formula allocations for FY 2007 to assist participating jurisdictions in preparing their consolidated plans.

H.R. 3755: Zero Downpayment Act of 2004
108th CongressThis is a bill in the U.S. Congress originating in the House of Representatives ("H.R."). A bill must be passed by both the House and Senate and then be signed by the President before it becomes law.
Bill numbers restart from 1 every two years. Each two-year cycle is called a session of Congress. This bill was created in the 108th Congress, in 2003-2004.
The titles of bills are written by the bill's sponsor and are a part of the legislation itself. GovTrack does not editorialize bill summaries.

2003-2004

"The Zero Down Payment Act of 2004, introduced by Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-OH), would require the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) to offer federally insured mortgage loans to certain eligible households to buy a house without a down payment. Although the bill could lead to a very modest increase in the homeownership rate, it would do so by exposing the FHA-and ultimately taxpayers-to major losses stemming from high default rates, as evidence from similar FHA programs shows. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the new program would cost the government $618 million from 2006 through 2009."


Donaldd

ysbaddaden's picture
)O(

Diabolus est Deus Inversus

ysbaddaden's picture
)O(

Every now an then there's some blowhard on the Dallas Morning Nudes blog-site trying to claim the real estate meltdown was due to FNMA and FHLMC and the Community Reinvestment Act, a 1977.

I would write back if that was the case wouldn't the meltdown have happened THIRTY years ago?


Diabolus est Deus Inversus

EP3's picture

I had a thought about the estate tax today. Let me try to explain.

What I see happening in the real world is that the baby boomers accumulated vast sums of wealth. The rich elites want to take that back. But if they took it by taxes, it would have to be put to use building roads, schools, things people like. So instead, if they can lower the estate tax, that inheritance by the children of the boomers can be put to use being spent on health care, electronics, paying down credit card bills so that they can then spend again on the credit card. So this is a different, more profitable way for the rich elites to extract that baby boomer wealth. Which I feel is their only motive right now. The baby boomers gained too much wealth. That keeps them complacent in the voting booths so that real change doesn't happen. Their children have been building up tremendous debt thru bigger homes, health care, credit cards because their standard of living has not kept up. This has been the way that that boomer wealth is being taken back. By not taxing any of it, more will be spent and grow the profits at various companies, while also breaking the social safety net thru starve the beast.

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