Comparing the House Bill's Cost to the Baucus Proposal
Emptywheel has crunched the numbers on the Baucus plan, and has come up with how much money it will leave families if they actually have to use the insurance for any significant health care problems. Here are her numbers for a family of four earning 300% of the poverty levels or $66,150.
Federal Taxes (estimate from this page): $8,710 (13% of income)
State Taxes (using MI rates on $30,000 of income): $1,305 (2% of income)
Food (using "low-cost USDA plan" for family of four): $9,060 (13.5% of income)
Home (assume a straight 30% of income): $20,100 (30% of income)
Bad Max Tax: $20,610 (31% of income)
Total: $59,785 (89% of income)
Remainder for all other expenses (including education, clothing, existing debt, transportation, etc.): $7,215 (or 11% of income.
Now, the House bill stops subsidies at EXACTLY the same level, 400% of poverty level. We can use Emptywheel's numbers for all of this. The difference is that the House plan limits premiums to 10% of gross income at 300% (pg 137, pdf), and out of pocket expenses to $10,000 per family.
So that makes the House Tax: $10,000 + 6,615 = 16,615 or 25% of income (as opposed to 31%).
The difference between the House plan and the Baucus plan is $4,025. Total expenses are $55,7607, or The remainder for all other expenses is $11,240 or 17% of income.
It's not a meaningless difference, $4,025 a year is $335 a month. But it's not huge, either. (Note: see update at bottom of post.)
Now, one might say the real difference is that the House plan has a public option, which will drive down costs. At best that's questionable. I don't think so, neither does Taibbi, and neither do various other people. Yes, a good public option would, but the House plan has a crippled public option. I strongly expect that most people at 300% are going to be paying 10% of their income, because that's what insurance companies are going to charge them, since that's what they can charge them.
If you object to the Baucus bill because it will force families to buy insurance that will still financially cripple them, then there's little reason not to object to the House Bill for the exact same reason.
Update: Dave Johnson points out the following (which would be true of Marcy and my numbers):
It seems you want to deduct the $20K insurance premium from gross income before you calculate the federal tax, so fed tax shouldn't be $8710, it should be
$66,150 - 20,610 = 45,540 * 13% tax = $5920 tax.
The difference is $2,790 to both the Baucus and House plan numbers. Which is slightly better for both of them. I leave it to readers to decide if it's enough better to make either of them a good deal.
It only confirms the obvious -- the present handwringing concerning healthcare reform is a farce, and we should hold out for a public option.
Mandating that everyone carry insurance is already a windfall for the insurers. The only possible benefit to this arrangement is that hospitals serving large numbers of uninsured persons will be relieved of the financial burden of that service. Instead of putting that money back in the pockets of consumers, however, the losses previously written off by the hospitals as charity care will make their way into the coffers of the insurance companies, as the insurers find themselves collecting premiums from policies purchased by a whole new class of customers. The plan as it presently appears to be proposed amounts to a tax on consumers, with the insurance companies using the police power of the state to enforce collection.
Invariably, inevitably, the insurance companies are going to find a way to pass their increased costs due to regulation to consumers. If you cap the burden on low-income consumers, the insurers will simply shift the per capita cost to higher-income consumers who are insured through their employers.
Obama's destined for a single term.
This obligatory use of insurance is the stuff that revolutions are born out of.
BTW, their idea of a public option isn't the option to join Medicare, it the option to buy pooled insurance that is maintained at an artificially high price in order to make sure that the insurance companies don't have to face any genuine competition. Some option. Just another scam.
Well, the first two paragraphs are solid analysis. Maybe not exact, but solid.
The third depends on the kind of regulation that is applied.
And, of course, you're making an argument for single payer, which is the only means that would
eliminate the problems you describe. Whether you want to admit it, or not.
Your conclusion about Obama though is highly speculative. And probably more wishful thinking than
rational analysis.
As we saw with the RIAA and the MPAA and their coopting of the DoJ/FBI as their poodles in fighting the dreaded non profit home file shareres.
Now we are going to have the HI industry with their poodles the IRS, and eventually SWAT raids to collect people HI tax or be gunned down for resisting. 'We kill you to make you free'
Theres a word for all this, starts with a F.
obviously if Americans cannot afford healthcare...they simply aren't working enough jobs.
Working Americans need to have 3 jobs each, to be Good Americans. George Bush said so.
"Anyone that makes less than $150K in this country, has no business voting Republican."
...he called it (while grinning.)
I think that's the problem.
* There are two types of Republicans: millionaires and suckers.
"Mugsy's Rap Sheet": Recording history for those who seek to rewrite it.
... is the fact that the lady with the 3 jobs was glowing with pride as Bush took a figurative dump on her.
...of what Strauss was talking about when he used the term "useful idiot".
Just read on teh Yahoo news Baucus (D-Ins) is proposing a fine of $3800 as a fine if you don't spring for insurance, which makes it $315 per month. Hell, if I had $315/month I'd still have my Cobra.
Of course, this is all just a floater, and after the outrage it will come down to $1200/month and we'll all be so happy it's "only" that much.
Read for yourself.
Who knew that Obama would force us to buy insurance from the corrupt insurance industry? This is how far the industry's reach is. Rather than reform, the insurance companies are going to get even fatter. This has been a cruel joke even Bush/Cheney wouldn't dare to pull off. We need something on the order of the civil rights demonstrations to end this corporatocracy.
I recall cringing as Hillary and Barack argued back and forth about "mandates". Hillary would have been just as bad.
I believe, based on historical precedence, that this entire health care reform "plan" was hatched in the corporate health insurance boardrooms years ago, (and at the three martini lunches on K Street).
And stop and think for one moment. We have this just out about the Baucus "fines":
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9AJ8...
We have the U.N. touting THIS:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/6...
We have thousands of Americans losing their unemployment benefits, losing their jobs, losing their homes, losing their medical "insurance" etc. And if the economy tanks the way I see it tanking, there will be lots and lots of formerly lower middle class to middle class Americans being in the ranks of "Medicaid" eligible.
What will this mean if the Baucus/Obama bill gets signed, Public Option or no Public Option? It will mean millions and millions more Americans will be in Medicaid and if they do NOT "sign-up" they will be "auto-enrolled" without their knowledge.
Then what? Well, they'll go into the hospital with a ruptured appendix, heart attack, status post car accident with serious injuries, perhaps owning an old house Grandma left them that they can barely make the yearly taxes on and guess what? If they've been signed up for Medicaid they will be forced to sign a piece of paper that basically will GIVE the state Grandma's house. And every time this person sees the doctor or incurs medical expenses the house will be paying for the bill.
This was the brainchild of MITT ROMNEY AND TED KENNEDY!
I feel the bill Obama will end up signing later this month will be as bad as The Patriot Act and all the other rotten pieces of legislation that have been enacted in the past ten years.
I am cynical enough to believe that this is not a plan to provide health "care" to the American People because those in the federal government don't actually give a hoot about us, it will be a plan to seize more of our money/assets with fines/penalties and to seize our property etc.
The corporations are CHEERING for this bill to be signed!
I am praying it gets killed.
For me, it's H.R. 676, "Medicare for All" or nothing. Any bill that continues to protect the corporations "profits" for at least another decade is ROTTEN TO THE CORE AND WE ALL KNOW IT!
Here's a good link to watch related to how Canadian doctors feel about what's going on down here:
http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com...
"The US has an army of 90,000 soldiers in Afghanistan and is spending $100bn a year, but has still been unable to defeat 20,000-25,000 Taliban who receive no pay at all." - Patrick Cockburn
HR-676 or nothing.
Vote Republican! Throw the bums out!
Only then can the free market prevail!!! The government is in the business of creating markets for corporations now. Progressive policies cannot stand. We need to motivate the common working man, so that he can uproot his livelihod and his family and move across state lines to find cheaper healthcare.
"Anyone that makes less than $150K in this country, has no business voting Republican."
This means Americans will be paying way more taxes than Canadians, for ... oh, but the Insurance Companies will make a shitload of money.
I get it, never mind.
it'll all trickle down all over you. Yayyyy!
merrily sing their Trickle Down Economics Song (from that Wizzard of Oz tune):
I could stand around for hours,
giving golden showers,
Keeping peons in their place.
My peeing is so mighty,
That it makes them all afrighty,
As I piddle on their face.
From high and lofty places,
We'll flood their orifaces,
With our special kidney brew.
We will wash away their powers,
As we drown them under showers,
Of our uric acid dew.
Oh, it's great to have such riches,
And make the poor our bitches,
As we sing these happy songs,
As we trickle down our scrapses,
And we feed them nought but crapses,
And we hose them with our schlongs.
The aristocrat's vocation,
Is based upon predation,
Oh! What a way to live!
To piss upon a servant,
Is a joy we hold most fervant,
It's the service that we give.
We make the poor get poorer,
So we rich can be the richer,
Why, don't we have our nerve?
So we'll keep them in the mudsies
With the water from our pudsies,
It's the life that they deserve.
Then they go dancing off into the sunset, with a confident and jaunty step.....
So the Baucus proposal hammers these poor middle class workers with health insurance costs which are MORE THAN TWICE THEIR TOTAL TAX BILL?
MORE THAN TWICE THE TOTAL TAX TAKE.
Let your Congresscritter know.
..and they'll hear about and then, maybe, the next guy after the next election will get it!
Mickey: "It was an epiphany. Do you know what an epipany is?"
Keoni: "NOT NOW MICKEY!"
They will have to find the $10,000 per annum for family health insurance, then they try to claim some or all of it back via Medicare, assuming they qualify under its rules. Theres a lot of people out there on minimum wage of $6 per hour, or $12,000 per annum.
i find it extra-annoying that the right wing will greenlight any military spending, as america yawns. but health reform that will save thousands of people's lives, that might prevent people from going bankrupt due to health bills, etc. is such a budgetary fight.
let's have a cost-analysis of the 800+ foreign military installations to the american economy and taxpayers... *crickets*
It conserves the viagra.
and Viagra costs money!
"You want another $120 Billion to continue a war that results in the deaths of dozens of Americans each month? No problem!"
"You want $80 Billion to provide guaranteed healthcare to every American that saves thousands of lives each year? COMMUNIST!"
* There are two types of Republicans: millionaires and suckers.
"Mugsy's Rap Sheet": Recording history for those who seek to rewrite it.
I think there are a lot of people making payments, whether they took out a loan or are leasing. There's a few thousand dollars more, then figure for education, clothing, groceries and other expenses.
Don't try to confuse the issue with half-truths and gorilla dust.
I thought it was all about the public option?
The shifting goal posts are hard to follow.
Now what is the lastest - Oh the cost . . .
WE
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow
man, and I hate people like that! " ~ Tom Lehrer (1928 - )
in the world, right behind that renowned banking mecca, Tanzania.
(Not sure what criteria were used--typical lack of depth coverage by CNN...)
"Parachutes are allowed in checked or carry-on baggage, but may not be worn in flight."
---Southwest Airlines
But was are number one in golf boondoggles!!!
And we all know that major commerce is conducted on the golf course, especially on the banker's 19th hole.
"Anyone that makes less than $150K in this country, has no business voting Republican."
for transparency and corruption.
Socialised Medicine
OR
Corporate Murder
Those are the choices really.
That's what it is when someone is "recised" or declined the payment of medical bills because of a "pre-existing condition". It is quite literally a death sentence, and murder just as surely as if a member of the HMO had gone up to the person with a gun and blown his or her brains out.
The craziest thing is that pregnancy counts as a "pre-existing condition" and can get you thrown off the books or not accepted in the first place.
to refuse either private or public option, it is not a true public option. If there is an option, you should have the option to opt out and if you end up having a serious illness, you're on your own, no BK, you owe the debt incurred.
Here's your public option.
Buy insurance from the insurance companies. If you can't afford it, the government will buy it for you...high premium...shitty coverage.
So, the public pays the insurance companies.
It's called...robbing the treasury...for those of you who are still not paying attention.
"Anyone that makes less than $150K in this country, has no business voting Republican."
to buy insurance that is artificially maintained at a high price so as not to compete with the gangsters who run the insurance rackets.
Those calculations are Greek to me. They remind me of the Federal Tax Code. That can't be good.
So what's going to happen if Baucus' bill passes is force everyone to purchase health insurance from a private company. If you can't afford health insurance, the government will buy it for you with money from higher taxes on the private health insurance companies. In turn, the private companies will pass-on those higher taxes by raising premiums and deductibles on people who can afford health insurance. If the premiums get too high, many employers will drop their existing health insurance packages and purchase shittier packages from a private health insurance company.
So what Baucus' plan comes down to is giving everybody shitty health insurance while enriching the private health insurance companies. This guy needs to be voted out of office!
"So what's going to happen if Baucus' bill passes is force everyone to purchase health insurance from a private company?"
Massive armed insurrection? No, we'll just passively take it up the butt, like we always do.
single payer system based on a non-employer matched payroll tax, we could probably do it for about 8-10% net tax. Currently, Medicare is funded with what, a 1.35 employer matched tax? If you wanted to make the system a little more just, we could make it a progressive payroll tax, the poor/minimum wage workers pay little or nothing, the Uber-rich pay 20% (or more). Everybody would be covered, and the system would stand on sound financial footing.
what we are being offered is BS; it's only purpose is to transfer the people's hard earned wealth into private hands and giove nothing in return for it.
The whole crew looks like they are intent upon being voted out of office as soon as their numbers come up. Well, regardless how they shaft us this time, there is not a single bit of legislation that cannot be voided and set to rights once these clueless, corrupt douchebags are evicted from public office. They are seriously misreading the will of the great majority on this issue. I'll bet they are going to be dumbfounded when they see how poorly they fare in the up coming election cycles.
Elections are not determined by votes. At least not in the US.
are Kabuki theatre held only to keep the masses from taking to the streets with pitch forks. Check the poll numbers and you'll find that a wide majority of Americans favors the public option/medicare for all solution. However, media and blue dogs have coalesced to give a perception that a majority is horrified and fears our government has been infiltrated by baby killing communist bastards.
It wouldn't matter if Obama had gotten 95% of the public's votes in 08 and if 100% of the population were demanding a medicare for all system. The corporations run this country. This is government by corporation only. PAY TO PLAY. If you can't afford to buy health insurance, then drop dead, M.F.!
"By words the mind is winged." - Aristophanes
Sorry but the estimated taxes are way overstated.
With a gross income of $66,150 you would subtract at least $10,900 for the standard deduction and $14,000 for personal exemptions for a taxable income of $41,250. The tax on this would be $5,539 less $2,000 for the child credit for a maximum of $3,539. If they itemize or have other deductions or credits it could be lower. These are 2008 numbers.
The "bad man" tax is still a bad idea. We need to reduce the costs of healthcare, eg, tort reform, reforming the tax code, incentives to stay healthy etc.
Focusing on insurance is a distraction.
I too noticed this apparent basic error. Thanks for mentioning it.
See what happens when half the country will act like stupid sheeple and scream "communism", "socialism" when anyone asks the obvious question: Why do the 28 other industrialized countries have more efficient health care delivery systems and a more effective form of universal coverage at less cost than we do? This whole confused debacle - which the for profit insurance companies and their health industry allies -are just overjoyed over, is the natural result of the ignorance, stupidity and paranoia of at least half of the population. The majority of whom, belong to the Republican party, and get their views on reality and the rest the world through the indocrination for dummies that is the right wing echo machine, and GOP politicians.
And Obama doesn't have the political courage to come out and say that any "uniquely American solution" will be nothing more than a second or third rate "improvement" at best.
But we can all thank the Neanderthal American conservatives for planting the seeds of us becoming
the laughing stock of the rest of the civilized world.
Some idiot reading the news, causally mentions that Congress is back in session and working on HI, and with no comment or complaint or strained tone, dead pan voices the news that people will be fined up to $3800 if they don't purchase HI. Its put forward as a good thing, as if people without HI are slackers, not that they cannot afford HI.
$20000/year for insurance?
they are getting funneled more money than Uncle Sam. fuck the house bill. what if I don't fucking sign up?
Some stuff you can't make up!
So the local radio news was saying earlier.
Fine me?
FIND me.
Comments are closed on this entry