The Republican Job Creators Myth
On Thursday, John Boehner and the House Republican leadership team unveiled their "Plan for America's Job Creators." As he repeatedly made clear before the Economic Club of New York and again on CBS Face the Nation, Boehner's "job creators" are the top two percent of income earners whose Bush tax cuts President Obama has proposed ending. And that presents a bit of problem for the Republicans. After all, George W. Bush's tax breaks for the wealthy sadly coincided with the worst period of job creation of any president since Herbert Hoover. Which means the GOP plan for America's job creators is just another tax cut windfall for the gilded class.
Earlier this month, Speaker Boehner warned that "The mere threat of tax hikes causes uncertainty for job creators -- uncertainty that results in less risk-taking and fewer jobs." As he told Harry Smith of CBS two weeks ago:
"The top one percent of wage earners in the United States...pay forty percent of the income taxes...The people he's {President Obama] is talking about taxing are the very people that we expect to reinvest in our economy."
If so, those expectations were sadly unmet under George W. Bush. After all, the last time the top tax rate was 39.6% during the Clinton administration, the United States enjoyed rising incomes, 23 million new jobs and budget surpluses. Under Bush? Not so much.
On January 9, 2009, the Republican-friendly Wall Street Journal summed it up with an article titled simply, "Bush on Jobs: the Worst Track Record on Record." (The Journal's interactive table quantifies his staggering failure relative to every post-World War II president.) The dismal 3 million jobs created under President Bush didn't merely pale in comparison to the 23 million produced during Bill Clinton's tenure. In September 2009, the Congressional Joint Economic Committee charted Bush's job creation disaster (above), the worst since Hoover.
That dismal performance prompted David Leonhardt of the New York Times to ask last fall, "Why should we believe that extending the Bush tax cuts will provide a big lift to growth?" His answer was unambiguous:
Those tax cuts passed in 2001 amid big promises about what they would do for the economy. What followed? The decade with the slowest average annual growth since World War II. Amazingly, that statement is true even if you forget about the Great Recession and simply look at 2001-7...
Is there good evidence the tax cuts persuaded more people to join the work force (because they would be able to keep more of their income)? Not really. The labor-force participation rate fell in the years after 2001 and has never again approached its record in the year 2000.
Is there evidence that the tax cuts led to a lot of entrepreneurship and innovation? Again, no. The rate at which start-up businesses created jobs fell during the past decade.
It's no wonder Leonhardt followed his first question with another. "I mean this as a serious question, not a rhetorical one," he asked, "Given this history, why should we believe that the Bush tax cuts were pro-growth?" Or as Mark Shields asked and answered in April:
"Do tax cuts help 'job creators' or 'robber barons'?"
Just days after the Washington Post documented that George W. Bush presided over the worst eight-year economic performance in the modern American presidency, the New York Times in January 2009 featured an analysis comparing presidential performance going back to Eisenhower. As the Times showed, George W. Bush, the first MBA president, was a historic failure when it came to expanding GDP, producing jobs and even fueling stock market growth. Apparently, America's job creators can create a lot more jobs when their taxes are higher - even much higher - than they are today.
The epic failures of the Bush tax cuts for America's supposed job creators hardly end there. The U.S. poverty rate began rising in 2005, well before the onset of the December 2007 Bush recession. As David Cay Johnston document, average household income fell after the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003, dropping to about $58,500 in 2008 from $61,500 in 2000. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) found that the Bush tax cuts accounted for almost half of the mushrooming deficits during his tenure, and, if made permanent, over the next 10 years would contribute more to the U.S. budget deficit than the Obama stimulus, the TARP program, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and revenue lost to the recession put together. As the data show, the Bush tax cuts provided a massive payday for the wealthy, helping fuel record income inequality.
Despite that record failure, House Republicans want to give the job creators who don't create jobs another jaw-dropping tax cut.
As Ezra Klein, Paul Krugman and Steve Benen among others noted, the "Plan for America's Job Creators" is simply a repackaging of years of previous proposals and GOP bromides. (As Klein pointed out, the 10 page document "looks like the staffer in charge forgot the assignment was due on Thursday rather than Friday, and so cranked the font up to 24 and began dumping clip art to pad out the plan.") At the center of it is the same plan from the Ryan House budget passed in April to cut the top individual and corporate tax rates to 25%.
The price tag for the Republican proposal is a jaw-dropping $4.2 trillion. And as Matthew Yglesias explained, earlier analyses of similar proposals in Ryan's Roadmap reveal that working Americans would have to pick up the tab left unpaid by upper-income households:
This is an important element of Ryan's original "roadmap" plan that's never gotten the attention it deserves. But according to a Center for Tax Justice analysis (PDF), even though Ryan features large aggregate tax cuts, ninety percent of Americans would actually pay higher taxes under his plan.
In other words, it wasn't just cuts in middle class benefits in order to cut taxes on the rich. It was cuts in middle class benefits and middle class tax hikes in order to cut taxes on the rich. It'll be interesting to see if the House Republicans formally introduce such a plan and if so how many people will vote for it.
If this all sounds hauntingly familiar, it should. When it comes to using the tax code to line the pockets of the wealthiest people in America, House Republicans simply want the next decade to look like the last one. That is, gargantuan tax cuts for America's so-called "job creators"; no jobs for Americans.
(This piece also appears at Perrspectives.)







money under Little Boots Bush, that we all went Galt!!!
Of course, you'll never see this chart, or any other that really explain things to you on any MSM venue, where meme's are the truth, and the truth is a lie.
Remember:
- the Republicans are the party of business and jobs.
- the Repulicans are the party of national security.
- the Republicans are the party of small business, not just big business.
- ETC...
Rinse and repeat.
for the quality of our press coverage of the facts. Our modern commercial media is worse than worthless because its mindless recitation of unfounded memes is actually harmful in its deception. And public broadcasting isn't much better of late.
Hey Boner, where the fuck are the jobs asshole?
Seems there is an inverse relationship between tax cuts and job creation doesn't it?
That should be Crying Boner.
and job creation. Money is the catalyze for economical activity. I work for money and so do most people. The problem with giving too much of a tax cut to the rich is that the very rich only spend a small portion of their income on goods and services that ordinary people create. The majority of the money rich people make go into buying speculative financial products. Therefore when you give rich people tax cuts you remove money from the productive economy and move it to the speculative economy. Which means you kill jobs and you fuel the boom and bust cycle. This is why giving rich people tax cuts is a very bad idea.
And now we have another Texas Repug governor thinking of running for president. GAG
this one IS a real texan,ass
....the fools do not realize,a population that can ,..... not paticipate .............in the 'economy'...,can not keep it viable!..........."we are listening,.......and we're not blind.,......this is your life....this is your time."
The Democrats keep hearing the Republicans repeat the zombie lies that have been debunked since the Clinton tax increases and never challenge them. Unchallenged lies, even zombie lies, when repeated often enough, with no rebuttals, become the truth. Why the Dems don't accuse them of lying, I'll never know. This is why the righties have no problem saying that tax cuts are off the table. The general public has no idea how big a failure supply-side has been and nobody is making that case for them
I'd ask what sort of tortured logic led to the idea that the wealthy create jobs based on excess capital, but clearly there is no logic behind it.
Let's dispel this quickly, for anyone with at least the minimal intellect to understand it: jobs are only created through increased demand of products and services, not extra bucks from rich people and corporations. Businesses don't hire new personnel to sit around gathering dust -- they hire them only when they think they need new personnel. It would be foolish to do otherwise.
Granted, the Republicans and their Democratic fellow travelers are only doing what their sponsors are paying them to do. But tax cuts for the 1% rich come at the clear expense of the other 99% of us.
this will work just like it did for the past 8 years...under bush/cheney! Not at all..
Deficit plan = jobs plan --right out of the box fail!
"Which means the GOP plan for America's job creators is just another tax cut windfall for the gilded class."
Now, if we could make them the gelded class, all that money flowing back into circulation...
I did some very simple calculations to get the average annual job growth under Democratic and Republican administations post-Hoover.* Per annum, Democrats have had an average rate of job growth of 3.61%, Republicans 1.14%. This means that on average, since the start of the Great Depression, Democrats have overseen growth rates over 3 times greater than those of Republicans. Hammer the bastards with that, I say.
*I performed a simple weighted average. For example, because Roosevelt served four terms, his annual average was given four times the weight of Carter's average. For administrations that didn't serve their full terms, I used the value of which ever president served over half of that term.
There’s too much weasel room in those stats. The argument would be that since Clinton followed Bush, Clinton benefited from the Bush policies because no administration hits the ground running. They are constrained by the policies of their predecessor. So too, Bush II was constrained by the policies of Clinton, which brought his numbers down.
That is always the argument when presented with straight numbers. Because there is some validity in the argument, it is always overused - as a weasel defense.
(Post Note)
You could, of course, weight the growth by year, with the first year having smaller weighted effect. That would take a bit more research as the year over year growth would have to be determined rather than the cumulative term. Multiple terms should have greater weights on the final years. (There are some problems with this method also.)
There is some validity in that, but probably more-so for one term Presidents. 8 years at the job? You own the results.
True. See my post note.
I see the Post Note now. I wonder how these guys would have done if they could have had 4 terms? Scary actually.
Bad things under Bush Jr.: Bush who? Good things under Bush Jr.: Clinton who?
Updated: Bad things under President Obama: Bush who? Good things under President Obama: Obama who?
It's a heads I win, tails you lose scenario.
Funny coin-toss routine from “Road to Morocco”
We'll toss a coin.
What's the date? hea...
1910!
Pretty close... 1911 .
That's the way it goes-- somebody loses, somebody wins.
I take your point and agree for the most part. The main problem with it is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to decide at what point the next president becomes primarily responsible for the numbers. Nonetheless, I'd be willing to wager that even with a weighting scheme that tried to take such issues into account, the Democrats would still come out considerably ahead due to Roosevelt-Truman, Kennedy-Johnson and Clinton.
Roosevelt-Truman represent two decades of Democratic rule, so it seems more than reasonable to assign all of their results to the Democrats, particularly because Roosevelt inherited the Great Depression from Hoover. Johnson-Kennedy is another eight year run where it seems reasonable to assign a big chunk of it to them, and Clinton had eight years and inherited the poor economy from Bush I. To the extent that Bush I might have helped Clinton, it was because he broke his "Read my lips. No new taxes." pledge. A very unRepublican action.
By contrast, the multi-term Republican presidents, Eisenhower, Nixon-Ford, Reagan-Bush I, and Bush II have weaker numbers than most of the multi-term Democrats.
It's an inexact science to be sure, but a strong argument can be made for Democratic policies even if exact numbers cannot be assigned.
Re: No new taxes.
Bush I was very shrewd and that was a very calculated statement. He never actually broke that promise. He never created any "new" taxes. He only raised existing ones.
Yes, but the net effect was the same, and it was a clear indication that Bush I recognized that the deficits created under the Reagan administration required additional revenue. Rather Democratic of him in my opinion.
Supply Side Economics
Cleaner Air And Water Through DeRegulation
Winning Hearts & Minds By Bombing Civilians
War Without End To Make The World Safe For Democracy
When will government of the people, by the politicians, for the corporations perish from this Earth?
Not soon enough!
It's positively Orwellian, ain't it?
:)
When will government of the people, by the politicians, for the corporations perish from this Earth?
Not soon enough!
Making Our Christian Nation Safe From Theocracy By Banning Sharia Law !!
When will government of the people, by the politicians, for the corporations perish from this Earth?
Not soon enough!
think feeding his cows hay so that they would give milk is a very bad idea. Some would say that this is a bad analogy, Is it really? When you have a political party that wages war against the poor and middle class. And who believe that public education is socialism and should be abolished then the analogy is appropriate.
Look at the top four job creators: Roosevelt, Johnson, Carter, and Clinton. Now look at the four worst: Hoover, Eisenhower, Bush I, and Bush II.
stop making sense.........'you're not from around here,is ya?'
....the fools do not realize,a population that can ,..... not paticipate .............in the 'economy'...,can not keep it viable!..........."we are listening,.......and we're not blind.,......this is your life....this is your time."
While I agree with the general rejection of trickle-down economics, actual macroeconomics are much more complex than a simply 'tax policy -> jobs creation' connection.
This article holds from a scientific or logical point of view as much water as Beck's board.
"Which means the GOP plan for America's job creators is just another tax cut windfall for the gilded class."
Oh, OK. I have been wondering why, after 2 1/2 years in the Oval Office, Obama and the Democrats haven't made any effort to end the Bush tax cuts. Now I know. Thanks for telling me.
The Republicans will NOT be creating any jobs. Any improvement in job situation just might aid Obama next year so, under the Republicans' Obama Must Fail doctrine, anything helping the current administration would be anathema to them. They can talk about jobs all they want but but will work very hard to prevent any real improvement.
Let's call them what they are, the Bush/Obama tax cuts.
Obomber and the Dims continued them.
They own them now.
statusquObama, change you can only pretend in
That was what finally caused me to stop working with OFA.
I used to think the Democrats were just weak. Now I think they are just as beholden to corporate and moneyed interests as the Republicans with a slight nod to helping working folks. I really wish we had a multiparty system and publicly financed elections. Then we'd have a fighting chance for people's interests to be reflected in our government.
For eight years under George W. Bush the job creators did nothing but take jobs away from America and it's citizens. These people do nothing but take tax breaks and they do not create jobs. John Boehner knows this and he doesn't give a crap he is taking his "contributions" from his benefactors to support his golf and drinking habits. What he needs to understand is that the American people are not falling for his bullsith anymore.
first time i read the first paragraph i read that as Economic Cult of New York. on reflection its probably correct....
it certainly is a cult of belief around tax cuts lifting rather than dragging people down....
Hate to break the sorry grapes but all the graphs here aren't an indictment towards Republicans. Why? That indictment came with the FIRST Great Depression under Hoover. So the opposite is true here: this entire post is an indictment on fence jockey Dimbulbacrats whose hocking, pawning, rewarding, and enabling brought on the SECOND Great Depression. Period. In no way, shape, or form could Republicans could've possible re-created these numbers and their drastic effects ... without complicit and loyal enablers: Democrats.
They were in on the scam from on-set ...
Comments are closed on this entry