Will Obama Win the Character War?
By Jon Perr Tuesday Nov 04, 2008 6:45am
Back in May, I argued that with the American electorate's across-the-board preference for Democratic policies and a historically unpopular Republican president, John McCain's campaign would turn the November election into a "character war." In September, campaign chairman Rick Davis confirmed the GOP would follow its tried and true strategy from 2000 and 2004 when he announced "this election is not about issues" but instead about "a composite view of what people take away from these candidates." On Tuesday night, Americans will learn not only whether Barack Obama won the election, but whether voters literally thought he was a better man.
Heading into Election Day, Senator Obama looks like to outperform his recent Democratic predecessors across a range of policy and demographic measures. An October Rasmussen survey showed that Americans trust Democrats more than Republicans across each of the 10 issues tracked. The party of Obama enjoys double-digit leads on the economy (by 13%), Social Security (12%), health care (20%)and education (by 19 points).
That issue advantage, compounded by John McCain's feeble response to the economic crisis and the GOP's increasingly xenophobic line towards immigrants, is helping fuel Obama's strong performance among critical voting blocks. As I detailed last week, media myths notwithstanding, Barack Obama will approach traditional levels of Democratic support among Jewish voters and outpoll Al Gore and John Kerry among Hispanics. And with his backing among white voters reaching 44% in the final CBS News/New York Times survey, the African-American Obama may surpass the levels achieved by Gore (42%), Kerry (41%) and even Bill Clinton (43%). Four years ago, John Kerry lost among white men by a 25 point margin (62% to 37%); according to a Fox News poll, Obama now trails John McCain by only 5 points among the same group.
But from the moment John McCain secured the Republican nomination, his fall strategy rested on creating a "character gap" between himself and Obama. As in 2000 and 2004, I argued, the Republicans would try to turn the race into a presidential personality contest:
And to win it, they need to manufacture a "character gap" between John McCain and Barack Obama...The data is clear. If the election is about the economy, health care and Iraq, John McCain cannot become the 44th president. Only if the GOP succeeds once again in transforming the race into a media medley about lapel pins, angry ministers and Muslim-sounding middle names can the Republicans hope to maintain their hold on the White House.
Sadly, we've been here before. The 2000 and 2004 exit polls clearly show the Republican Party succeeded both in portraying the presidential contest as being about character and in defining the accepted media narrative for candidates Bush, Gore and Kerry.
Eight years ago, 24% of voters claimed being "honest/trustworthy" was the quality that mattered most; among them, George W. Bush trounced Al Gore by 80% to 15%.
In 2004, Bush walloped the supposed flip-flopper John Kerry by 70% to 29% among those claiming honesty was the most important presidential attribute. Among those wanting a "strong leader," Bush swamped Kerry by a staggering 75 points.
In his 2007 book The Big Con, Jonathan Chait described how Republicans consistently win elections despite almost universal disdain for their policies among the American people. In a nutshell, Chait argues that Republicans must convert elections into contests of character because they simply can't win on issues. While their man, be it George W. Bush or John McCain, is the "authentic" guy you'd "like to have a beer with," the GOP drives the media conventional wisdom that paints the likes of Al Gore, John Kerry and now Barack Obama as effete, out-of-touch elitists whose positions change with the wind:
"Media outlets functionally affiliated with the Republican Party have been able to create news that makes its way into the nonpartisan media. It is a kind of machine that manufactures images of character.
The Republicans' seminal insight was that the random process by which small events come to wield great symbolic insight into the character of presidential candidates didn't have to be random. It was possible to prime the pump, in a way." (p.169)
No doubt, John McCain tried to replicate the same trusted formula in 2008. The Republican Convention was a four-day paean to his personal biography and war-time sacrifice. (Both before and after, McCain and his surrogates deployed the POW card to shield him from criticism on everything from his 11 homes to his health care plan). And to be sure, the Republican smear machine was in full swing, branding Obama as disloyal, a socialist, a communist - and worse. With supporters chanting "John McCain, Not Hussein," it's no surprise that 54% of Republicans in Kentucky and a quarter of Texans wrongly believe Barack Obama to be a Muslim.
And yet, it appears that it may not work, not this time. Despite all of the Republicans' efforts to paint Barack Obama as "the other," the final NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed voters see each man sharing their values by virtually identical margins (Obama 57% to 39%; McCain 57% to 38%). McCain has always led Obama on this question in previous NBC/WSJ surveys. As Republican pollster Robert Newhouse put it:
"Obama seems to broken through on the values attribute. For the first time in our polling, a majority of white voters believe Obama has a background and set of values they identify with."
On other personal attributes, Obama enjoys advantages over McCain. An October 23rd CBS poll revealed that voters saw Obama as more honest than McCain (53% to 46%) and view him more favorably (52% to 46%). In all, CBS reported Americans were more comfortable with Obama:
Obama has been more successful in evoking a positive response from voters: Sixty-two percent say they feel personally comfortable with the Illinois senator. Far fewer - 47 percent - feel comfortable with McCain. In fact, a slightly higher percentage - 49 percent - report feeling "uneasy" about the Republican nominee. Thirty-four percent feel uneasy about Obama.
On all of these questions of demography, philosophy and personality, American voters will provide the answers Tuesday. Some, like the unshakably monolithic support of evangelicals for Republican candidates, will come as no surprise. But when it comes to the GOP's perpetual character war against Democratic candidates, on November 4 Barack Obama may well open some eyes.
(This piece was crossposted at Perrspectives.)
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is a pigs ass pork?
The other white meat.
Anyone should be able to see that Sen Obama has a much better character than John McCain. Think about it, who left his wife for a younger, richer woman? Who cussed his wife in front of a reporter? Who turned down the chance to make serious money in order to help disadvantaged people? Who has run his campaign based on lies, smear and fear?
I think that most Americans don't like nastieness. This is why John McCain is losing.
Who denied (and continues to deny) the families of Vietnam POWs and MIAs from gaining access to their loved ones records? Who blackmailed the Vietnamese government to keep all records of US POWs sequestered forever?
McShame loses the character contest in spades.
Who voted against giving veterans benefits? Who crashed five airplanes? Who is under media scrutiny for a fatal 1964 traffic accident? Who doesn't go to church weekly? Who resorted to character assassination based on distortions? Who was grumpy with a young reporter for Scholastic? Who called another questioner "a jerk"?
Once again, McCain is the loser.
I like to think I'm a character, but who'll vote for me?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lU54Imv5SWw
No matter what happens with the election, based on how the campaign was run, Obama has character, McCain is a piece of shit. I know there are a lot of racists angry people out their and thats not McCain's fault, but he ran a campaign that validated these people's hate and anger. For that he is a loser no matter what.
Tonite...a better than 10 point win by Obama, besting Raygun's electoral record.
An undeniable mandate...a seismic shift in this country. Progressive policies made this country great, and they will do it again.
Scarborough is already on suicide watch this morning. Peggy Noonan is waxing poetic about "the good old days".
REMEMBER...never forget the talking points...
1) a personal attack on the President is UNAMERICAN
2) questioning his foreign policy is an attack on the troops
3) criticising policy is an attack on the American people and on America herself
It's time to cuff these bastards around until the stupid gets slapped out of them.
That's why this morning this area of Fla. is being flooded with the Rev Wright ads. It's almost like they are running in a loop. The catch words in the ads are "radical" and "risky".
Here we are at the finish line and there is no ad running that tells anything positive about McCain. I'm beginning to think that there are a few voters who are true supporters of McCain and others who are simply voting against Obama.
I actually think there may be a "reverse Bradley" effect this election. I believe that there are quite a few Republicans who have stated a public intention to vote for McCain but may change their mind.
Obviously not the hard-core, Palin-worshipping, blind loyalists. But many left-leaning Republicans and independents may either be swayed by the Obama GOTV juggernaut (especially compared to McCains anemic version) or by the way McCain was negative to the end.
They may also not feel completely comfortable admitting a vote that isn't just "not Republican", but - *gasp* - for a non-white non-Republican.
Oh Yeah, Obama has lots of character. While McCain and Moose Momma took the low road to nowhere. Afterall McCain was called a bully in school and a punk. That tells you something...
Would a President Obama get the chance to get his seat warm before folk kvetch about what he hasn't done yet?
but there is one guy on here, "they all suck" that probably won't give President Obama any slack.
Man! Is that one negative!
http://homedir-c.libsyn.com/podcasts/240be2eb...
Five seconds after he wins the reps will bare their fangs and start blaming Obama for the last 8 years. Count on it.
if obama wins today its time to do what the democrats refuse to do , IMPEACH HIM!
Will keep the Bushies too busy to screw anything else up.
I find it funny after 8 yrs of Bush the republicans are still blaming the Clintons for everything that has gone wrong with their own administration. I think with President Obama starting on Weds. the republicans and Fox News will hound his administration like they did with the Clintons. Of course the people will see that and will unite and will give President Obama another 4 yrs. You betcha. Put Moose momma up in 2012 and she will unite the democratic party.
If the last two elections had been legitimate I might agree that the character assassination was successful. But the fact remains that the last two elections were clearly stolen and that tells me that the dirty trick brigade failed. Forcing their masters to fall back to vote fraud and legal action to obtain the prize.
Again I say that anyone who thinks mclame is a better man than Obama has had their eyes closed and their fingers in their ears for the last year or so. mclame's own staff has been jumping ship one at a time using the "he's not the man I thought he was" meme to excuse themselves.
If that doesn't scream "Vote for Obama" even to the wingnuts, I don't know what possibly could.
election fraud not vote fraud......these are significantly different, the former being much more serious.
Obama has proven he has the judgment and character to be a great president through his many debates and appearances. McCain is slightly funny in scripted skits, but that's the only positive thing I can say about him. He's a bitter old man, a poor performer academically, immoral in his relationships, and slightly creepy.
It's voting day. The character train has already left the staion, and oh, there's a train wreck left behind.
It many not be about ANY of this if the voting machines are rigged. Remember how confident W seemed in 2004 and remember how over this past week, my friends, McInsane has been saying he's going to win.
I fear I will be rioting in the streets or end up in a straight jacket if that happens.
dont worry they have the third infantry divison and blakwater standing by!
blackwater
of this new C&L format is that if you make a typo such as yours, you can go back in and fix it, until someone responds to it, at which time the edit option is disabled. (Site monitor, please correct me if I'm wrong here.)
During this campaign I was always fearful of a McCain win, but when he picked Palin to be on the ticket with him, I became scared to death of a McCain win.
That choice told us so much about his decision making ablity and so much about him allowing himself to be used by the right.
Next thing he did was that crazy suspending his campaign and threatening not to attend a debate. Unless he is batshit crazy, he couldn't have thought that was a good idea. So once again he allowed himself to be used.
Whoever he is allowing to use him this way has no idea what they are doing. Is that the type people he would surround himself with in the white house?
He is the one allowing them to use him this way. Lobbyist then, lobbyist now, if he won, lobbyists in the future.
Has that picture been touched up or not touched up to make mcgramp's complexion look so blotchy?
His skin reminds me of those terrible pictures they used to scare us with in the Navy about venereal diseases and how they can disfigure your package.
lol
DO NOT MESS WITH NAUGHTY GIRLS
Starring Theda Bara.
OBAMA needs a big margin in order to overcome the R-Sleaze Factor and the Moron Factor.
as if that were a reason not to vote for him. The guy is an otherwise (seemingly) intelligent, 50-ish white guy who hates Bush. His son is a child prodigy at Univ. of Miami, his wife voted for Obama, but this guy can't seem to get over the "Muslim thing." As of this morning, he was still undecided and indicated he might vote Nader. I guess that's better that McCane...
is a doofus. Unfortunately, we all have neighbors like that.
but it's difficult to reach those who have been Clannitized...
from a man who spent the last 20 years of his life at a xian church?
Does your neighbor have some kind of aphasia?
I'm still trying to figure out how Obama could belong for 20 years to a xian church for 20 years with a scary minister, be a muslim and be a marxist (atheist) at the same time.
That's what kills be about this Rev. Wright hysteria. If anyone is completely out of his mind at the pulpit, it's Pastor John Hagee. And according to Matt Taibbi, Hagee's son has may be even worse.
I recommend Taibbi's The Great Derangement as guide to understanding your batshit crazy megachurch neighbors.
And I know you've got 'em in Plano.
The rev. always struck me as a man frustrated by the walls he's run up against in his life.
Hagee makes me think that somewhere there's a max security loony bin missing an inmate.
"Margeaggedon" that's good!
I'm gonna have to borrow that. The next time my Australian Shepherd, Maggie, is digging up the yard in a frenzy, we'll call it "Margeaggedon."
That's hilarious :D I love animals. Tell Maggie I said Hi :D
Scroll down for "I will do that"
I fail at posting today.
Where the seat of joel osteen country, un damn fortunately.
Hagee more scarier than Wright
Tue, 11/04/2008 - 08:12 — bateman
I could sum it up for you without writing a book.
Rapid societal changes cause a sense of anomie in people. Anomie also increases with gesellschaft. To seek relief some folk find religion, and authoritarian versions are popular as a form of release, "let me shoulder your burden, brother." They then normalize the values and ethics of their sub-group. This then becomes their new window on the world. But when the world-as-it-is collides with their world-view it renews the stress. They then have to justify the non-synchronicity, and humans being humans seek to justify their own version, becoming a tautology or a kuklos geneseon if you will .
I Won't.
Praise Bob!!!
The old conventional wisdom was that people from lower socioeconomic levels, and the less educated took solace in organized religion as way to feel importance and empowerment they weren't getting in the real world.
But now, with the advent of the gospel capitalists, we're seeing this kind of incongruity with what I consider true Christian principles of humility, charity, compassion, etc.
So is it any wonder we're watching the wheels fall off these fraudulent institutions? Hell, they're actually shooting off in all directions.
That is so particularly with Pentacostalism and Holy Rollers, but the idea is a little too Marx's religion as an opiate. The more comfortable are more likely to be mainstream, unless they become numb, and in effect become religious thrill-seekers.
And the Mega-churches draw from all classes since they're more about theotainment (don't bother looking it up, I think I just coined it).
!
I looked it up online; the word does exist already. It's used by people referring to todays Christianity as ADHD, and of course such movies they don't approve of like the DaVinci Code.
I really hope that there aren't as many of these people out there as I fear.
Steve Schmidt ate McCain's character a year ago.
Jean Schmidt ate McCain's character a year ago.
(fixed it for ya.)
I notice a number of people talking about Republican heads exploding tonight. I don't think that will happen. They know they've lost and are already plotting 2012.
Last week, had Bill Ayers finally, after all this time, spoken out and endorsed John McCain - THAT would have been a true head-exploding moment.
An Obama Win would be better than sunshine right now.
in the heartland (Illinois). I hope to God I will be able to pop open the bottle of champagne before I go to bed tonight.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3V8EznD4Jo
I'll take a contrary view here, which is that McCain is fundamentally a man of character. Remember, things got testy and out of control at the end of the Democratic primary too.
Think of the Jesse Helms "black hands" ad. Think of the Swiftboating. Think about some of the recent behavior we've seen from the outer reaches of wingnuttia. Then think about how deathly efficient the Republican slime machine can be, and remember what some of the people around McCain did to him in South Carolina.
They could have gone a lot lower a lot faster than they did. It might have worked. And it would have destroyed this country.
So I'll give Senator McCain credit on the character front, because he's the only reason they didn't go there. He is surrounded by people without honor and without scruple so this wasn't a case of someone holding him back.
I'm not ignoring the last month and all the Obama-as-socialist tripe. I'm just saying that it could have been a lot worse. Just think of the campaign Giuliani would have run.
but if you think McCain is fundamentally a man of character, read this:
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/m...
He is the one that hired those around him. He never told the 527s to stop. He has repeaayted the lies. He has character?
It was McCain's running mate who talked about Obama paling (sp?) around with terrorist. I think they believed they could get more traction by using the word "terrorist" this time around.
Look at some of the videos on this page and tell me again that McShame is "fundamentally a man of character".
I will never forgive this man.
And I'm saying that you should forgive him, after a decent interval and if he redeems himself after the election. He could have gone a lot more negative a lot faster.
In the end, yeah, he got into the mud. But imagine what it would have been like if he had gone to the bottom from the beginning.
Getting a major-party nomination involves a lot of compromises. Obama has made them too (FISA anyone?). McCain sold his soul to get the Republican nomination, and as part of the bargain he hired a bunch of the usual jackals to run his campaign. However, having sold his soul, he retained enough humanity to keep from going scorched-earth. Do you really think this was the worst he could have done?
This is only meant to be faint praise, I'm not claiming that he ran a clean campaign. But after the previous two campaigns I appreciate how much dirtier it could have been.
So we shouldn't be too hard on him because he didn't come out and call Obama the N word in the first week?
I realize the bar was lowered for the caribou barbie but I had no idea just how low it had gone.
I think your logic is a bit flawed. You are using false equivalences. You bring up FISA (a policy issue) and think that it's comparable to the character assassination that McCain has done. It's not. McCain and his campaign have gone out of its way to make sure that policy issues are never truly debated. They have entirely focused their campaign on the character assassination of Obama. Like "Margeaggedon," McCain and his surrogates have called Obama every name under the bright, yellow sun short of the N word. Obama on the other hand has tried to make sure that his campaign is about policy issues and not assassinating the character of McCain. If McCain wanted to run a decent campaign, he would have stepped away from Ayers, Wright, and would have told his GOP cronies to not file a complaint against Obama for traveling to Hawaii to visit with his grandmother on the day that Obama lost his grandmother to cancer.
Also, I heartily disagree that 2000 and 2004 Bush campaigns were worse. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is the first presidential election (in recent times) where a presidential candidate was called a terrorist. McCain's campaign has set the record for sleaziest campaign ever.
agree with you. The McCain campaign makes the Kerry swiftboaters look like philanthropists by comparison. The McCain/Palin fiasco was by far the nastiest, lowest, sleaziest campaign I have seen in my 49 years.
It's amazing how people have become desensitized to this nastiness due to the constant onslaught of hate radio, hate TV, and just plain hate. Republicans up and down ballot have lost my votes forever.
mclame gave up what little character he may have had when he let that rep. crew of his run wild like a pack of animals. If he had any character he wouldn't have allowed them to turn his campaign into the derisive, abusive, character-assassination smear machine that it became.
He doesn't get to turn around now and say "Hey I was betrayed and lied to" because it's just one more lie. He knew exactly who was working for him and exactly what they were going to do. He's approved every message and repeated every smear ad nauseam as he was told.
Not to mention that his lack of character has ALWAYS been clearly visible. We could start with dumping his disabled wife but it starts long before that.
I have no doubt that mclame is every bit the racist, hateful, fear-mongering, petty jackass that he appears to be.
McCain is admirable in many ways. Risking your life for the country, even though Vietnam policy was wrong, likely criminal, and a disaster for America, is always admirable.
It is also admirable that he has gone against his party at times in the past.
However, he has demonstrated plenty of bad character as well. The way he treated his first wife was shameful. The way he has used his privledge to advance in the military and in politics was also a joke. The way he has flip-flopped on his own beliefs to try and win the presidency is also bullshit. The way he has tried to tear down Obama with all this false bullshit about him being a terrorist, being a marxist, being a black radical, being whatever also says a lot about McCains character.
to me there's NO excuse for the false ads,completely false/half truth talking points and character attacks
by the mccain campaign. i'm trying NOT to use a broad brush and paint all republicans with this opinion but it's the strategy i've seen the last few elections. it's a MARKETING strategy of using DECEPTION. i feel it's can be very successful with black and white thinkers and people that live in/with self-deception. this
is where the hate and division come from NOT the truth but deception. that's why it's important to get away from this type of campaign. but of course we all know that some demographics WANT DIVISION. they don't to like and/or be around people that aren't like them. if that division was less or didn't exist
the republican party would continue to get smaller. mccain should take responsibilty of his campaign. i got tired of the lies but more importantly i knew some people would believe them like the COAL misinformation. it needs to end.
Any closer they'd be swapping spit
Or ludafisk.
Dear Jon Perr,
The 2004 elections are a tough one to compare/contrast as in many instances, votes were stolen. However, with that said, anyone who wishes to slander one's character through guilt by association while their hands are not clean, is a hypocrite at best and lacks enough character to garner my respect.
What's a McHagee?
... A Evangelical minister that went public on how God Damned America!
... I'm just saying.
http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20081104/NEW...
TULALIP (WA) -- The vast majority of American Indian voters support Sen. Barack Obama for president, according to a poll by Native Vote, a national agency that works to engage American Indians in elections.
Overall, 89 percent of all Indians polled support Obama. In Washington state, 94 percent of all Indians polled support the Illinois senator.
Sen. John McCain's most supportive state, when it comes to tribal members, is Oklahoma, where he is expected to take 42 percent of the vote among Indians. Even there, he's tied with Obama. In Arizona, McCain's home state, 74 percent of all Indians polled support Obama, and just 14 percent support McCain.
Yeah, Obama has character! M-I-C-K-E-Y M-O-U-S-E. He is a bigger opportunist that Bill and Hillary Clinton added together. I can't see a shred of honesty in his behavior.
If American voters were actually informed enough about past actions and human behavior Obama would be likely to score less electoral votes than George McGovern but in our society today his abilities at rhetoric and basketball make him a hero.
Member for
12 min 40 sec
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNK5KzI48mM
Obama has done everything asked of him in life. So give him a break. This is a guy who truly pulled himself up to make something of himself. He did not rely on Daddy's money or fame. This is a guy who graduated from Harvard law and could have went on to make millions as a lawyer, but instead went to help those less fortunate in the community. This is a guy with very strong family values who has never cheated on his wife and raised beautiful kids who are not pregnant. This is a guy who did not even put that he was black on his Harvard application. This is a guy who said he was against the war in Iraq when it was very dangerous to say that and it took balls. This is a guy who only recently paid off his student loans from income from his books. No excess living and crazy pursuit of material wealth here. This is a guy who did not try and tear down John McCain with as viciously a negative campaign as the McCain campaign has used. etc. etc. etc.... Why don't you explain to us what all the character flaws you see with Obama are exactly? and why don't you compare them to George Bush, John McCain and Palin while you are at it?
You can't see a shred of honesty in his behavior?
Unfortunately sir/madam/it, you have been ideologically blinded. There is no cure for this, except to keep your mouth shut so that you don't out yourself as a fool.
I have spent sometime on the right-wing website
http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/
After many months of arguing or trying to understand the point of view of these hardcore Republican voters, it became very clear to me that none of them were really voting for Republicans based on policy, as as soon as you started to try and argue on policy they could not defend themselves or got very bother, hostile and confused.
Most said they supported Republicans and McCain based on highly personal and character issues. I would say that 80-90% of Republican voters only vote based on character. And mostly they believe their Republican candidate has the better character because the Republicans have been effective at tearing down the Democratic candidate. For example, many truly believe Obama is a Muslim, is a communist/marxist, is a black radical, is a terrorist, is anti-American, is a cheating, lying and stealing snake oil salesman, is racist to the whiteman, is a uppity or priviledged, etc. etc. They vote based on these inaccuracies and not based on who has the better healthcare plan, who is really looking out for the common man, or who will end the wars. It is very damaging to the rest of us.
And the ones who do vote based on policy often seem to be single issue voters, say against abortion, which is amazing as they do not seem to care about anything else. It is incredible that someone could only ever vote based on abortion, while their healthcare, job and house could be falling apart around them. Truly programmed voters.
leader to really understand and exploit this single issue/social issue phenomenon was Ronald Reagan. Then Newt Gingrich and Karl Rove polished it up, and ended up dropping a big GWB on us.
I loathe Newt Gingrich. That man is lower than pond scum in my book. And, have we made that penal colony on the moon, yet? Because if so, Karl Rove needs to go there ASAP. I don't even want him on planet Earth.
I think that the corporate media did everything they could to support McCain's effort to make the issue all about character. They ran the McCain guilt by association ads during the commercial breaks and then ran them again as though they were news.
The corporate media gave McCain as much free time on air as they could. John McCain clearly displayed his character at each and every opportunity. As long as his base, the corporate media, spoke for him, McCain did extremely well. It was when they stopped paraphrasing and editing, and showed him speaking for himself about character that he damaged himself by being himself.
-totally off topic now-
Here she is.
Margeaggedon, meet Maggie/Mags/Margie/Margaret the dog.
Obama won that hands down months ago.
*
Of course Obama would win the character war--hands down. And judging by the pic of the two of them above, he'd also win the profile view overwhelmingly. Yikes!
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