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State: New Hampshire
Type of election: Primary
How it works: Straight-ahead process where voters go to the polls and vote via traditional secret ballot. The primary is a modified open contest meaning that voters registered independent or 'decline to state' can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primaries. The state will award 12 delegates to the Republican National Convention.
Official election results: New Hampshire Secretary of State
Republican candidates: Michele Bachmann (she suspended her campaign after the ballot was finalized), Herman Cain (he suspended his campaign after the ballot was finalized), Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Buddy Roemer, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.
Democratic candidates: Barack Obama
Previous performance: In 2008, Romney finished second in the Republican primary to John McCain, receiving 31 percent of the vote. Paul finished fifth with 8 percent. Obama finished second in the Democratic primary with 36 percent, losing to Hillary Clinton by three percent.
Newspapers: Concord Monitor, Nashuah Telegraph, New Hampshire Union Leader, full list
Television stations: Full list
Other websites: 2012 New Hampshire Primary
Progressive blogs: Bank Slate, Blue Hampshire, Democracy for New Hampshire, Miscellany Blue, New Hampshire Labor News, Susan the Bruce
Progressives on Twitter: Dean Barker, Blue Hampshire, New Hampshire Labor News, William Tucker
Media blogs: NH Journal, James Pindell, Shira Schoenberg, Dean Spiliotes
Latest polling: Most recent from each polling organization:
Nate Silver gives Romney a 98 percent chance of winning, followed by Paul at 2 percent. All other candidates are at 0 percent chance to win according to Silver.
Wild card: Huntsman. Polling shows him anywhere from second place down to fifth place. With some of the others not participating, this could be his only chance to make headway in the race. If he does, who does he draw from?
Bottom line: Barring a massive upset, Romney should win easily, so it comes down to who finishes second and third. Huntsman gains the most by finishing in the top three. Perry is almost certainly done for with his atrocious numbers here. Paul will likely grab one of the top three spots, but won't exceed expectations. That means that the real question is how well do Santorum and Gingrich do? If they finish outside of the top three, it doesn't necessarily kill them, but they will be very heavily wounded, particularly Gingrich. Every candidate who has won both Iowa and New Hampshire has won their party's nomination in modern times, so a Romney victory would be a strong sign that he'll be the nominee.
