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(h/t Heather)

So Tweety, all worked up about next year's mid-term elections, asks his panelon this week's "Chris Matthews Show" how many House seats will the Dems lose in the upcoming election and quotes some of Charlie Cook's predictions.

He blames high unemployment and healthcare reform for impending losses, and then notes how many seats Reagan lost and how many Clinton lost. What it's going to be like "after next November when the Democrats have to pay the piper for high unemployment, for questions - in fact, anger that you've all expressed in the last section about the healthcare bill and all those kinds of problems?"

TIME editor Richard Stengel praises Rahm Emanuel, saying how brilliant it was that Rahm put Democratic conservatives in conservative districts. (Buttering up the chief of staff for access, Richard?)

Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker says House Democrats are concerned because they "walked the plank for Nancy Pelosi on cap-and-trade and now they've got to go with health care, the people are raising Cain about it at home, and so they're in a terrible bind and yes, they want to be team players so I think you're going to see a lot of fallout come this term."

Matthews says any House Democrat who puts their "yea" on health care reform "has got to be thinking 'I'm a target'".

CNBC's Trish Regan says that's because health care reform is an unpopular program (well, Trish, I'm guessing it is among your constituency, but there's a lot more of us than there are of them) and claims that voters are "more worried about spending and the deficit" and says there's a feeling their politicians are not doing what they want.

She says President Obama needs to make this health care program more popular, and Matthews agrees.

Andrew Ross Sorkin, the Wall Street beat reporter for the New York Times, says "People are voting with their wallets next time. That's what this is. This is all about 'am I richer, am I poorer' and you know, everybody remembers how rich they were - ah, I don't know how rich they were, but only a year or two ago and unless Obama can get Democrats and get us back to that place next summer, I think it's going to be a tough road."

Matthews says, So the Republicans are promising to get it back for you?

Sorkin: Absolutely.

Then Parker add this final dollop of smug Villager "wisdom."

"There was never a constituency for health care. Let's remember that. When you have eighty five percent of Americans who are pretty satisfied with their policies, their insurance coverage and their health care, where was this constituency that we have to overhaul the system? It never was there."

Whoa, Nellie! Are you kidding me? Hey Kath, did you happen to notice that health care was the main issue in last year's election? Have you been reading all those health-care sob stories on the front page of your own paper? Can't wait until your ass-kissing paper closes and you're out on the street, hustling freelance work to cover your bills. Imagine, life where you can't afford a pedicure!

Matthews agrees. "Right. And I see trouble for the Democrats."

I'm going to make a different prediction. If the Democrats pass healthcare reform with a real public option, Democratic popularity will grow and we'll do well in the next election, with minimal losses.



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49 comments

It's WAY too early to be making predictions about the mid-terms. Thirteen months is an eternity in politics.

However, with the unemployment rate and the number of people suffering in this country, voters do have a right to expect things to improve before Nov. 2010. If there is no improvement, I think the Democrats will be punished.

However, a lot can happen in a year.

themselves the party of no; their hysterical opposition to anything that Obama does puts the onus on them for the things that aren't changing. Besides, the experts, such as they are, have been saying that this depression will last for years. I think people are prepared for hard times; what they're not prepared to countenance is Dem failure to follow progressive policy, particularly on health insurance reform. If the Dems keep acting like Repugs, they'll suffer.

The Republicans may be the "Party of No", but they, their corporate & ideological backers are controlling the message. They send out a press release and instead of investigating and actually reporting, the news organizations repeat the press releases almost verbatim.

We see news program after news program stacked with Republicans and conservatives who get to repeat their message without interruption or debate, yet its a rarity find a Democrat or liberal on such shows, let alone allowed to speak.

It doesn't help that we have a Democratic Party with no true leadership and a billion different messages. Let's not also forget we have a President that prefers compromise to fighting for what one believes in.

I would rather go down fighting than go down compromising.

Tweety & his four guests belong on Fox News. MSNBC does allow its money making trio of Ed, Keith & Rachael to counter the spin of the almost entirely right wing spin of the MSM.

Reagan got re-elected in a landslide despite a double dip recession where unemployment steadily rose to 10.6% at the end of Reagan's second year in office! Meanwhile interest rates jumped to 22% in 1982, a zillion times higher than today. We had massive inflation then, too. Yet liberals have accepted the propaganda rewriting of history that the Reagan years were great. By 1988, Reagan's last full year, the conventional wisdom was that Japan industrial planning, quality control and productivity had already buried the U.S. economy. Recall that "Rising Sun" was about Japanese domination of global economics with their autos, steel, electronics and computers, financial/banking sector (eight of the 10 largest banks were Japanese). It took Clinton to completely reverse that trend in the 90s.

It is totally ridiculous for the Charlie Cook and Chris Matthews-types to be analyzing and talking about the midterms this soon. Such talk should at least wait until November.

Also, I have to say that Susie is dead wrong: the economy and financial crisis was the biggest issue of the '08 Election, not health care.

it will be a blood bath on both sides of the aisle...The repubs are down below 19% approval ratings and the Dems are about 37%...Dems and repubs are down in fundraising based on individual donations--some say as much as 40%...Do not think that repubs would reap the spoils!

The current Baucus bill will have many court challenges...it is a 'forced mandate' given to a private companies...Not Constitutional.
It would have to have a public option to allow people to opt out of the private forced rates! If not it is clearly a corporate give away!

I haven't seen so much wishful thinking and lack of reality from so many people in a long time. Was the shows title "GOP Upcoming Poltical Fantasy" or what.

As someone already said it's way too earily to make predictions on losses then again this is most likely just directed at GOP's feeling the heat over the "Party of DO nothing" stragey they have been useing these past months.

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Good Dog Almighty. I had no idear it was that possible to be that clueless and still be able to inhale oxygen on a regular basis. What about those polls that show the vast majority of 'Mericans deign to want a public option WITH THEIR HEALTHCARE REFORM.

Like the old geezer in the restaurant in "The Birds" said: "It's the end of the world..."

... there is a world of difference.

65% want health care reform.

a public option that is like Medicare included in health care reform. Even more acknowledge that health care reform is necessary.

"On what planet do these people spend most of their time"?

reminds me of a juvenile. A high schooler who worships the jocks and the senior class president. He's a chameleon who takes on the color of objects around him. On his own show, HARDBALL, he waxes poetic about health care for Americans, but put him on stage with Kath Parker, and that twit Andrew Sorkin, and Matthews feels that "thrill up his leg" again.

This show was so out of reality it makes me think of shills, husksters and carpetbaggers moving in upon the distressed to feed on what little assets they have left. Give me a break! 99% of us bailed out the banks and the Big Three Automakers and we can't have health care because it might cost too much!?!?!?

All these problems would have been solved if the Repugs had had control of the House, Senate, and White House.

Oh, did I say "solved"? I mean "caused".

If the Democrats pass healthcare reform with a real public option

The key word is "real" in the above sentence. If they do, you're right, they'll do well in the future. If it's non-existent, or watered-down with mandated payments, they're gonna get trashed, as well they should.

There is absolutely no excuse for a party that controls both houses of Congress and the Executive Branch to not be able to implement their policies . . . .

Most of us were so hopeful when Obama and so many Democrats were elected last fall.

It was as if the stars had finally aligned for the Democratic Party!

Here was our window to enact, at a MINIMUM, a true choice for SINGLE PAYER/MEDICARE FOR WHO EVER WANTED TO OPT IN!!!

But instead, Obama had meetings with the CEO of United Health Plans two weeks after the Inauguration and the rest is history.

Michael Moore was right when he said Obama should have started negotiations from what he knew would constitute REAL change and REAL reform of health care in this country.

Instead we are going to be facing PRISON if we cannot afford the health insurance premiums "THE EXCHANGE" TELLS US we can afford. Then if we opt for the fine/penalty and cannot pay that to the IRS (which will be the collecting agency), we may face PRISON.

So this is the "CHOICE" the Democrats will be giving us? "Be old enough for Medicare, poor enough for Medicaid or pay the for-profit insurance corporation your premium....or MAYBE GO TO PRISON."

So much for the Democratic stars aligning!!!!:

http://www.politico.com/livepulse/0909/Flout_...

Pffftttt!!!

Matthews either doesn't know (quite probable) or doesn't care (quite likely) that the congressional Party of NO is polling well below the Party of Compromise.

The talking airheads are fully half the problem. If they'd get off their fat complacent asses and start doing their jobs (informing the audience instead of trying to influence them) we'd have a more educated electorate.

is an idiot. Health care is such an unpopular program that 65% want a public option, did they wake people from their slumbers in a cave?
It's hard to believe they said all those things with a straight face. Do they not know how foolish they looked?

Corporations are running the show, both media and politicians. We have to address 2 issues if America is to have any hope of getting back to a functioning democracy:

1) public financing of election campaigns, like other civilized countries

2) Restore regulations to remove corporate consolidation of media and establish independent sources for news

Politicians and media spokespeople for the most part have become corporate shills (see healthcare "reform"). Things weren't always this bad in America re getting objective investigative journalism and having politicians that served the American people; this is not the 'normal' state of affairs and not 'American', despite what right-wing propagandists want you to believe.

What's Wrong With the News?

Independent, aggressive and critical media are essential to an informed democracy. But mainstream media are increasingly cozy with the economic and political powers they should be watchdogging. Mergers in the news industry have accelerated, further limiting the spectrum of viewpoints that have access to mass media. With U.S. media outlets overwhelmingly owned by for-profit conglomerates and supported by corporate advertisers, independent journalism is compromised.

Ultimately, FAIR believes that structural reform is needed to break up the dominant media conglomerates, establish independent public broadcasting, and promote strong, non-profit alternative sources of information.

http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=101

with the fact that we need election reform (public financing) and we need to break up the media conglomerates and other industry 'trusts' (banking comes to mind).

Here's the question: how're we gonna' do that??

The Congress critters are all bought and paid for by the corporations/lobbyists..as we've seen with the banking problem and now with health insurance, they're not going to 'regulate' (or bite) the hands that feed them. And, they're not going to change the election system - they'll never vote for complete public financing or term limits - they'll never throw themselves off the gravy train!

go of their corrupt grip on power and money. So we're going to have to pry their fingers off ourselves, and I mean we might have to physically remove them from office to get real reform. Look at the state's handling of those mild G20 protests. Imagine how they'll respond when they realize we're coming to kick them off Capitol Hill.

And, it doesn't seem that an armed uprising against the gov't by 21st Century Americans is a possibility - civil war? maybe.

So far, these Faux guys, the neo-cons, and the Reich -wing of the GOP and all of their minions have been doing an effective job of causing dissension among the ranks - look at the teabags.
That's what they really want, for Americans to be divided against ourselves, and then be at loggerheads with each other over made up political differences. Looks like it's working to some degree, and that makes the ruling class and corpora-fascists happy.

Does that mean that ALL progressives and liberals are members of the Democratic Party Susie? Hmm...reading blogs online, one would be more suspect to think that progressives and liberals were actually independant of political party affiliation. Things that make you say, "hmmm". As for Tweety and his gang of idiots, they live in the same reality as politicians. Not even close to reality at all.

dishonest statement? Even the teabaggers know that the majority of Americans want a public plan, if not single-payer (I'm not sure many people understand the difference). Even the most cosseted Villager can't be that ignorant.
It really sounds more like a pledge of loyalty to corporate goals than a journalist's perception of reality.

...is the overriding emotion that invades my head when I think of all these bubble-headed women spouting out this psycho-babble...wtf? And Chris frequently provokes and then acts like he is not listening to the crap that permeates the air in his studio, and since he is always talking over everyone it is no wonder that the drivel goes unchallenged.

Who do these people think they are?? I am one of those who is satisfied with my current healthcare insurance. HOWEVER, I also know that I'm vulnerable, as are my children when they finally venture into the job market, especially with increasing numbers of companies unable to afford healthcare benefits. Every year my husbands company wrestles with what to do about increasing healthcare premiums. They're are currently self insuring. So who knows what may happen next year or the year after. And what happens if they get hit with any major claims. I also understand the current system is expensive and unsustainable, and outcomes are poor. If not now then when do we fix the system? These people are idiots.

And lie, just bald-faced lie, without anybody calling them on their bullshit.

Seriously, 85% of people are happy with their policies?

Then why do 65% want the public option?

I think what he meant was 15% are happy with their policies. And that's probably the 15% who can afford them.

"Policy"?

(I don't have one....so I'm not sure what you're talkin' about).

Kathleen Parker:

"There was never a constituency for health care. Let's remember that. When you have eighty five percent of Americans who are pretty satisfied with their policies"

There seems to be a little misunderstanding on Ms. Parker's part. Eighty-five percent of Americans (who actually are insured) are happy. Perhaps they are happy but the statistics don't say that eighty-five percent of Americans actually have insurance.

Kind of different take on things with those numbers.

I am a lucky one I work for a large corporation. Last year the insurance company we were using didn't pay us full benefits if we went to one of our hometown hospitals. My hometown is a state capital. The hopitals that were allowed were small town at least 14 mi from the city limits. This year I tried the health savings account. It would work fine if my doctor and the insurance company provide matching info. If one is off then it is to the phone and fax machine. I will not sign up for it next year. What I am saving on taxes I am losing in time dealing with the beaurocrats at the insurance co and the health savings account. Thank you G W Bush.
Incidentally the large corporation I work for pays us 5 days a year for sick time but they really frown on us calling in sick if we are not totally bedridden. If one of us is sick instead of calling in a substitute they want the people that show up to divide the work which must get done that day. Should be interesting this winter if H1N1 lives up to the predictions.

This is what happens when you give dimwits too much airtime to fill. Have they seen the polls: The latest is that 65% want a public option. Where are they getting this right-wing hodgepodge? Oh yeah, from the right-wing sound machine.
I'd like to know where that "85%" figure they keep throwing-out comes from. I've had mine for several years and it outpaces the raised I get five-fold.

Maybe you should ask yourself why you don't merit 40% annual raises. But seriously, most of these talking heads, particularly the network puppets, are millionaires, pretending to understand "Main Street." Charlie Gibson really screwed up during the "presidential debate" starring him and George Stephanopoulos when he asked about a hypothetical couple of school teachers who would be impacted by taxes on anyone making more than $250,000.

Because they is ded?

)O(

There's no constituency for health care with these guys

But when boosh "won" with 2-5 margin points it was "a mandate!"

boosh's response, "I don't swing that way...

Anymore..."

The Racist Nazi Christian (RNC) and the Goofy Opposition Party (GOP)are delusional and out of touch. I am not going to forget that it is the republicans that Tanked the Economy, it was the republicans who are out of touch with mew and my fellow Americans.

What the Racist Nazi Christians (RNC) are really afraid of is if this Health Care goes through it will bury the republicans for years to come. Remember the (RNC) is the party of NO, it is the Party of HATRED, LIES, DECIET, and MANIPULATION. they are the party that loves sexual indiscretions, pedophilia and spousal abuse not to forget kinky sexual practices (VITTER the DIAPER BOY)(SANFORD the FAMILY VALUES MORON) (CRAIG the I LIKE MEETING MEN IN THE MENS ROOM), hm, and these clowns want my support.

Hey TWEETY, it is 65% of the AMERICAN PEOPLE that want Government option not the SOCIALIZED CORPORATION 85% LIE, get your facts straight you Zipper salivate.

These people don't care about identifying and expressing the truth. They don't even care about America. They do semi-scripted infomercials for the next political horse race. If motherhood itself were the hot topic, they'd insist the voters and Congress are evenly split on the matter.

republicanism is a mental illness! So why do you bother watching the insane babbel on and on during these sunday propaganda shows?
Commit a republican if you can! Do us all a favor.

Ya, it's really getting nauseating - that's not good for viewership...

sick sick sick, like a lousy soap opera.

In fairness, in her own terms she is correct. There is not and never has been a constituency for healthcare reform among the villagers, who are, after all, the only people who count.

...never see the need to reform our health care system. The US has perfected a system in which the Haves don't care about the Have Nots and the legislative agenda focuses on ensuring that the Haves always maintain their lopsided share of the pie. If Parker found herself unemployed (fat chance, the Village always finds a way to employ its loyal citizens) and without health insurance, she would be screaming for reform with a strong public option -- except that if she were truly unemployed and without health insurance, she would undoubtedly lose her column at the Post and her seat with other Villagers on shows like this one. At that point, she'd just be one of the whining losers who were trying to steal from the worthy.

There's never a constituency for health care reform among those whose worst nightmare is having to share anything they have with their fellow citizens.

Matthews doesn't care if the Republicans ruin everything - he's in it for the game. Matthews thinks the Republican scum can win back public approval and i'm betting he's wrong.

When it comes to being defrauded by your elected representatives Americans have a very long memory.

Every time the Republicans flash their blood stained fangs they remind us of what things would be like under republican rule. Republicans make the Democrats' case for them.

The Repugs are disorganized, underfunded, and self-marginalized. For them to steal seats would require the same kind of "grass-roots" attempt at "populism" started by Newt in '93. But they don't care about winning, just complaining about the other side.

they know they will convince SOME voters.

Tweety has surrounded himself with boot licking sycophants... who want to beleeeeve that the Republicans will SWOOSH back into power, even tho they have NO IDEAS, and NO PLAN to get back people's wealth. WTF! These people are IDIOTS.

typical (r) wing talking points. '85% of the people with health care insurance are happy with it'. from point of view this is more nonsense and wait until the system is even worse before doing something. i personally wish the government didn't have to get involved but something has to change. health care insurance cost will double in cost in less than 10 years. the current system is UNsusatainable. the right is/wants to REACTIONARY instead of creative/work together. the "free market"/"individualism" chatter from the libertarian/neoconservative camps sounds very romantic but little substance. the RIGHT is as guilty if not more regarding BIG government. the right want to make sure there's a large low wage/class demographic they are dependent on the government but there are private industries that make plenty off subsidizes for the poor. ie. affordable housing.

The ownership in media, the ideology process in topic selection and NOT selected, The societal caste ownership of the masses, the desire to control.

So much like religion..........................

"If the Democrats pass healthcare reform with a real public option, Democratic popularity will grow and we'll do well in the next election, with minimal losses."

I agree - which is why I am fairly worried about significant Democrat losses in the next election. The media figures work hard to defeat 'reform', and then say "See! We were right!", and reinforce their particular world-view.

It was Iraq, and then the recession that Bush refused to acknowledge.

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