Nate Silver: We Shouldn't Be Celebrating Just Yet on Healthcare Reform
Nate Silver on why we shouldn't celebrate just yet:
Needless to say, it would have been very, very bad news for the Democrats if the motion to proceed to debate on their health care plan had failed tonight. But I'm not sure how newsworthy this really is. The potential hold-outs, like Lincoln and Ben Nelson, are going to have much greater leverage later on, when the bill nears its second major procedural hurdle: the cloture motion to proceed to the final vote.
And there's some bad news for Democrats too: Lincoln has joined Senators Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman in making a fairly explicit threat to filibuster a bill that contains a public option. Mary Landrieu, on the other hand, sounds a little bit more open to compromise. But this impromptu Gang of 3 -- Lincoln, Nelson, Lieberman -- could be a tough one for progressives to penetrate.
Yeah, it's going to be ugly by the time they get done dealing away any real hope of competition for the insurance companies. I'm not optimistic about the short-term results here and I have to keep muttering to myself that this will be good for our children and grandchildren - probably.
I have heard mutterings all along that the bill can't be adequately passed through the reconciliation package. I have yet to see any detailed explanation of why that is the case. The lukewarm vomit that Lieberman and the Oklahoma and Louisiana DINOs will permit to be passed is totally unacceptable to progressives. The question of a public option via the reconciliation process needs to be fully aired and explained.
Candideinnc
certainly a move for the positive for progressives and I for one see it as a victory and will celebrate.
Here's the best explanation of how tricky reconciliation might be:
(http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=t...)
It isn't that it can't be used. It's that what you'll end up with is a complete crapshoot.
But even worse than that is that this bill, a relatively acceptable one, is now in the sweaty palms of just two people -Harry Reid and Joe Lieberman.
Harry and Joe have been a close knit quid pro quo buddies since 2005. Harry had to have already cut Joe some backroom deal to get him agree to Saturday's vote. But that gave the horribly weak Reid a brief but fake Saturday victory.
Nate's dead right to warn us. From now on every amendment and the final bill all require the Blue Dogs and Lieberman to approve of them.
You think 2,000 pages of of fine print written by lobbyists is "relatively acceptable"?
Maybe you should read this legislation *before* you jump on the bandwagon for it.
- Cap on premiums "limited" to 150% of health cost increases.
- NO effective enforcement mechanisms.
- State single payer systems are left open to legal attack by insurers under The Employee Retirement Income Security Act, and therefore not viable.
- Mandates that citizens but private insurance, fines them if they don't.
- Public "exchange" forecast to cost more than private insurance and have severely restricted accessibility.
- Gives drug manufacturers eternal copyright on biologic drugs (insuring no generics will ever be available).
Don't support legislation that you haven't read and don't understand.
HR 676.
..especially when your first order of business was to miscount how many pages it has.
It has 2074.
It's called approximation. The exact number of pages is far less important than what is written on them.
I rather suspect hazmaq was joking.
Corporate robber barons and their stooges writing legislation that denies basic human rights (health care) in order to increase profits is not funny, it is sickening.
entry level position, demonstrated. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoXQzWsSveQ
Lieberman, Landrieu, Nelson and the rest of the Republicans that managed to dupe the rubes in their states to think they were Democrats have finally exposed their true thug colors. The lists are out there, and primary opponents will emerge to send these fake Democrats packing.
Message to the fakes: Democrats with a Vengeance are coming in 2010.
simultaneously elected "Jingle-Bobby" Jindal...
these three have committed the fatal flaw
that will end their careers. there are severe
consequences for being a whore for insurance
and pharmaceutical corporations.
Lieberman isn't even a Democrat.
“This is the best year we’ve ever had,” says Charlie Ditkoff, global head of health care investment banking at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Bank of America may employ an interim CEO-
http://e.thedailybeast.com/a/hBLCUjIB7SwhTB73...
2010 and 2011 will see “a big explosion in dealmaking activity” as the debt deals that financed the buyouts begin to approach the end of their five-year term. Until now, there has been little incentive for private equity owners to try to sell or otherwise capture any profits on their health care acquisitions.
If you need Nate to tell you that you're not very insightful.
This was a motion to proceed - a procedural motion.
In a better more real world - nobody would have had any question and it wouldn't be "news".
How many procedural motions get M$M coverage?
It is just part of the sausage making.
Meh
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow
man, and I hate people like that! " ~ Tom Lehrer (1928 - )
It will bear enough of a semblance to a real piece of reform legislation that the Pols will b e able to claim to the proles, plebes, and rubes that something has been accomplished.
And indeed, something will have been accomplished: the fantastic enrichment at the public expense of the favored CorpoRats in the relevant industries...
Not for the people, of course. They're just gonna fuck us...
Which Obama will sign, with all the fanfare appropriate to the fucking second coming, sometime around Superbowl Sunday...
Aging baby boomers, they argue, will inevitably consume more and more health care products and services, from stents to nursing-home care, as the decades pass. “The question is whether the companies that are poised to hit the market are going to be the right ones to play that trend,” says one health care banker at a mid-market firm. “For now, investors seem prepared to pick and choose.”
Mercedes Benz
One life.
A million bucks? A hundred million?
What would you be willing to do to save one life? Save one baby? To provide a better quality of life for one newborn?
How much would you pay if the baby was yours or the person who needed care was a member of your family?
Food for thought, eh?
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow
man, and I hate people like that! " ~ Tom Lehrer (1928 - )
$19.00 a share "target".
That's what a human life is worth to Wall Street and the Health Care Bankers.
Sun, 11/22/2009 - 07:28 — Handypants
Food for thought, eh?
_____________________________________________________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDK3IT29uoQ
http://www.hulu.com/watch/17611/the-simpsons-...
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
A human life is only worth what it can generate in profit. When it starts eating into profit it is time to kill it off, or have the government subsidize it so profits can be maintained.
Filibuster rules change. 54 votes. Can be done with a simple majority. Problem solved.
Next
President Barack Obama.
What a Country
Crusader Bunnypants eagerly inflicted punishing defeats to all of us - pay back is a beyotch!
Punish Obama! (and the sick, poor, and elderly)
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow
man, and I hate people like that! " ~ Tom Lehrer (1928 - )
Q: What are the parts of the constitution that require a supermajority?
A:
* Convicting an Impeachment (2/3 majority in the Senate - Article 1, Section 3)
* Expulsion of a member of one house of Congress (2/3 vote of the house in question - Article 1, Section 5)
* Override a Presidential Veto (2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate - Article 1, Section 7)
* Ratify a treaty (2/3 majority in the Senate - Article 2, Section 2)
* Passing of a Constitutional Amendment by Congress (2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate - Article 5)
* Calling for a Constitutional Convention (2/3 of the state legislatures - Article 5)
* Ratifying a Constitutional Amendment (3/4 of the states - Article 5)
* Restore the ability of certain rebels to serve in the government (2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate - 14th Amendment)
* Approval of removal of the President from his position after the Vice President and the Cabinet approve such removal and after the President contests the removal (2/3 majority in both the House and the Senate 25th Amendment)
(from HERE)
******
The idea that 60 votes is needed to override a filibuster just isn't in the constitution nor has such a rule been amended to the constitution.
This is a rule decided by senators in the senate.
UGH!
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow
man, and I hate people like that! " ~ Tom Lehrer (1928 - )
Article I Sec. 5:
Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings, punish its Members for disorderly Behaviour...
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
A 'Toon I just made, and a link to a great Time Mag article on the 1975 Filibuster rules change made by LIBERALS!
By passing the 1st 60-vote hurdle last night, healthcare reform will likely happen, even if it’s not perfect (likely with a public option “trigger”, rather than a true public option from the start. Obama and, soon Congress (once the Repug amendment delay process is overcome) will then be able to shift focus to job creation. 2/3 of the stimulus hasn't been spent yet (maybe a "surge" is in order?) Once employment rates turn around, the Dems will be able to avoid significant losses in the 2010 election and will be able to continue on a path to save America from the Republican Corporatocracy. Sound too optimistic? Think the very vocal Tea-bagger minority will allow it to happen?
they're Health "Care" acquisitions for the big kill. So they win big in 2011 (or so) as they being auctioning off their Health Care "Assets" on Wall Street. (IPO's). . The rest of us get . . that's right . . screwed again.
They keep their assets and . . .
We still get screwed?
So . . .
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow
man, and I hate people like that! " ~ Tom Lehrer (1928 - )
into the market. Then the inevitable . . quality goes downhill and prices go up.
What I'm saying is this whole health care reform is a charade.
A farce. "Politics" . .
It's truly sickening. The "Money Changers" are in control.
Dateline - Washington DC. . . .
Politics sux . . .
YAWN!
:)
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow
man, and I hate people like that! " ~ Tom Lehrer (1928 - )
Sun, 11/22/2009 - 07:57 — Handypants
They keep their assets and . . .
We still get screwed?
So . . .
_______________________________________________________
They get their assets handed to them.
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
No progressive with a brain in his/her head has made the mistake of celebrating ANYTHING since Clarence Thomas was confirmed (with the help of DEMOCRATS). I didn't celebrate when Clinton was elected -- knowing he was Republican Lite -- and I didn't celebrate Obama's election -- knowing he would weakly capitulate on every progressive promise he ever made. Any Progressive legislation or victories at the polls will be overturned eventually.
American Progressives do not get to "win". The best we can do is delay. Don't worry -- I won't celebrate our health reform victory just yet...
as someone who worked for the election of mr obama, i feel at this time i want this to fail. this bill is a huge deal for the death insurance cabal. except for making some things like pre exsisting conditions, illegal, this bill is a windfall for the lobbiests.
if the congress and pres. was really serious, the bill would be three pages, and make medicare eligible at age 0!
if it fails in the next few years the weight of all the boomers, young families,& small business, wont be able to afford it at all.
let the whole thing collapse. let pres. palin and her reichwing thugs blow us up into smithereens to prove their end of days lunacy come true.
Let the red chinese pick up all the pieces and she will be pallin' around with the red chinese.......
the congress is totally in the pockets of the COC, and the banks, and all the money piles from the lobby's........
hell, this whole charade of a bill doesnt kick in for 4 years!
IT'S A JOKE!
What do you have against the pre-born?
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
You appear to have a brain in your head.
from the ground up. The disaster capitalists will make sure though they get their big payday leaving us with the wreckage.
Seriously, I can see it now with coverage at age 0.
It be like a Monty Python sketch.
A pregnant women goes into a health care office insisting on corrective surgery on her unborn baby.
They refuse since it's not covered.
She says, "What do you mean, I've been covered since birth?"
And they respond, "But the surgery for the hole in the heart isn't in your heart izzit?
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
Quebec – A Canadian woman on long-term sick leave for depression says she lost her benefits because her insurance agent found photos of her on Facebook in which she appeared to be having fun.
. . her insurance agent described several pictures Blanchard posted on Facebook, including ones showing her having a good time at a Chippendales bar show, at her birthday party and on a sun holiday.
They're already doing the same thing to Major Hasan.
I suppose to refute the idea he just snapped, they show him joking with some convenience store clerk. And here it is:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqfxmWbelcQ
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
How do you unpop a champagne bottle
Or sarah palin?
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
Put a cork in it?
The champagne bottle
Or sarah palin?
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
Yes.
the bill going thru the senate is designed for partisan bragging rights, not to correct the health-apartheid system.
If any PO is going to be weak, its own market place viabililty is in doubt. For basic economic reasons that any insurance actuary can explain. However, if indeed the brunt of the premiums falls once again to insurance companies, then their performance will be open for all to see. Including their profits. If they are to be held responsible (meaning the PO can't be used as a scapegoat), then perhaps in a decade we can as a population finally admit that the system of financing requires dramatic overhaul. Which would lead us towards a form of single payer. But this will require something that Progs haven't learned to do: mount an effective long term "message" campaign to the American public. Beginning with determining if the American public are committed or not to the concept of universal coverage.
And we'll be able to track the growing disparity between costs in this country as opposed to costs in other country.
As it now stands, the public is too easily frightened of single payer and it will require another round of
back stabbing by the insurance industry to hopefully change public perception about single payer.
I'm still giving passage of a final Bill about 55/45% probability.
....guaranteed! They have spent too much time on this to come away with nothing. It may not be the strong PO that the public wants, but there will be health care reform.
To me, the big mistake for the Dems, was not to start at single-payer, to have some bargaining power now. If the insurance companies had a real threat of single-payer, a strong PO wouldn't look all that bad to them now.
And we should not let go unnoticed the other contribution Ben Nelson has made to a Bill he probably
might not vote for in any case: Insurance companies will still be exempt from anti-trust.
The ending of the insurance industry exemption from anti-trust law is already a casualty of Nelson's demands.
Ben Nelson will protect the for-profit health insurance industry with all the power and might he can muster, leaving hapless unorganized individuals without representation. He presumes the industry is the best choice to do right by us.
We would know by now if that insurance industry would ever undertake to manage their own greed for profits, which always come at human expense. The answer is no. In fact, due to court defined requirements of capitalism, they can't.
It's such an outrage. The measures in the legislation are such a weak shade of what is needed to control costs and ensure the broadest coverage. I think what they're working on needs to pass, but I have no hope at all that it will be adequate.
It's "going to get ugly" because the Dems are so fucking pathetic at offense ...always placing themselves in the position of defense, which they also do weakly without any vigor.
They just act like mice hoping the GOP won't escalate. Apparently they haven't been paying attention for the last 30 years.
Don't confuse one "brand" of politician with another. They all work for the same people, and it's not US.
Celebrating? As if passage of this corporate welfare plan would be reason for citizens to celebrate?
If this crap passes CEOs and lobbyists will be popping champagne from Wall Street to corporate headquarters across the nation.
And we'll be paying for it.
"...I have to keep muttering to myself that this will be good for our children and grandchildren - probably."
Your optimism is unwarranted. Make no mistake about this: without at least a public option, the HC bill that goes to the President will be the same kind of giveaway to the health insurance companies that Wall Street got in the last round.
Seconds after a semi-final win in the NCAA final four, the Duke coach was asked how he planned to deal with Las Vegas. He replied, "Give us a chance to celebrate and enjoy the moment, won't you? Then we'll start planning for Las Vegas."
It's really a downer to hear only about what's wrong and what still has to happen. Yeah, we know, Josh. But can't we enjoy the moment first, and then, reinvigorated, focus on what's next?
Duke did defeat Las Vegas, by the way. Taking time to enjoy the moment is not an automatic prescription for failure.
Only this group of spineless democrats who control everything would celebrate scoring touchdown when the ball is still on the 20-yard line
Or when their pass is intercepted for an opposition touchdown - "Yea! We get the ball back!"
I have to keep muttering to myself that this will be good for our children and grandchildren - probably.
No, it won't.
"We Shouldn't Be Celebrating Just Yet on Healthcare Reform"
I can't believe that crummy house bill got voted for by the progressives. If this is the best they can do, it's sad.
I hope Feingold helps.
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