Ordinarily this segment would be sort of a "meh" segment. After all, Sean Hannity and Frank Luntz gleefully celebrating Americans for Prosperity's dishonest ad is more or less de rigueur for the likes of Fox News. It gives AFP a free airing of their ad for the Hannity audience and then gives Luntz a chance to reinforce the lies. We've seen it a thousand times before and we'll see it a thousand times before November has come and gone.

But when you look at this segment and the ad in concert with the FEC ruling I received this morning, it really does shed some light on how these organizations who are not supposed to lobby, but only spend money on "issues", get away with what they do.

FEC ruling 2012-11 (PDF) was requested on a rush basis by Free Speech, an "unincorporated non-profit organization" in Wyoming. At least one of the three people who comprise this organization are affiliated with the Wyoming Liberty Group. Free Speech wants to run ads with scripts like this:

Across America, millions of citizens remain uninformed about the truth of President Obama. Obama, a President who palled around with Bill Ayers. Obama, a President who was cozy with ACORN. Obama, a President destructive of our natural rights. Real voters vote on principle. Remember this nation's principles.

Or this:

President Obama supported the financial bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, permitting himself to become a puppet of the banking and bailout industries. What kind of person supports bailouts at the expense of average Americans? Not any kind we would vote for and neither should you. Call President Obama and put his antics to an end.

The FEC could not come to an agreement on the first script as to whether it fell under the definition of "express advocacy." They determined that the second script did fall under that definition specifically because of the sentence "Not any kind we would vote for and neither should you," which they determined to be a call to vote against President Obama. That is specifically prohibited.

The fact that they couldn't make a determination on the first one should tell you everything you need to know about why Americans for Prosperity and other organizations get away with what they do, and why people like Frank Luntz are so valuable to the effort. Any ordinary listener would clearly understand that an ad that uses language like "palled around with Bill Ayers" or "Real voters vote on principle" is calling for viewers to vote against the President. But because they do not actually use the words "vote for," the ads are in limbo at worst, or permissible at best.

There's something wrong with this picture. Let's have a look at the Americans for Prosperity ad, which Luntz and Hannity crow is the most "tested ad" of the current election cycle thus far. I take that to mean that they've run it a few zillion times across YouTube, Facebook and in GOP mailing lists to see what the reception is.

Factcheckers have already debunked the ad, but facts don't matter in ads like these. If they did, John Kerry would have been President in 2004. Here's the script for this ad:

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Assuming this doesn't get overturned by the appeals court, it would be very interesting to see the names of the people who want so badly to remain anonymous:

WASHINGTON -- A court ruling requiring non-disclosing political groups -- including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity -- to disclose their donors is one step closer to going into effect after a district court refused to stay its ruling in the face of an appeal.

On March 30, a district court ruled in Van Hollen v. Federal Election Commission (FEC) that a loophole in FEC rules that allowed certain independent group campaign efforts to keep private the names of donors was invalid and needed to be rewritten or reset to the original language.

On Friday, the court not only refused to stay the ruling, as requested by two intervening groups that are appealing the case, the Center for Individual Freedom and the Hispanic Leadership Fund, but the court also found that its ruling invalidated the FEC loophole, which required it to be immediately closed, resetting to the original language in the McCain-Feingold campaign reform law, known officially as the Bi-Partisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA).

District Court Judge Amy Berman Jackson wrote, "Prior to the promulgation of the regulation that was struck down, there was a valid regulation in effect implementing the BCRA's disclosure requirement. ... In light of the Court's ruling, that regulation now governs the disclosures required under the BCRA."

That language in the McCain-Feingold law required groups spending money on electioneering communications -- certain campaign ads running 30 days before a primary election and 60 days before a general election-- to disclose all donors giving $1,000 or more.

The appeal in the case is being made by the two intervenors after the FEC declined to appeal on Thursday.

As information continues to come to light about the attempted hostile takeover of the Cato Institute to make it into a tool of their political empire, the plan both confirms and exposes the ultimate realization of the Powell memo, which set out to create an indestructible infrastructure to support and sustain the far right as the dominant political force in this country. There was only one purpose to this infrastructure: Consolidation of political power to benefit business in the name of "free enterprise."

As we now know, that infrastructure extends from right wing radio networks to non-profits like Citizens United and Americans for Prosperity. Although the Cato Institute was funded with Scaife, Olin and Koch money, it has managed to remain true to libertarian principles in their purer form.

But no more. With the death of one of the founding board members and shareholders, the Kochs have made a move to pack the board with their ideological counterparts and take majority control of Cato in order to use it as an "ammo shop" for AFP, as Susie wrote about Sunday.

Dave Weigel has more details:

“They said that a principle goal was to defeat Barack Obama,” remembered Levy. “The way David [Koch] put it was, ‘We would like you to provide intellectual ammunition that we can then use at Americans for Prosperity and our allied organizations.’ AFP and others would apply Cato's work to advance their electoral goals.”Levy asked them: “What gives you the impression that [Cato isn’t] providing intellectual ammunition?” He says now: "I never got a satisfactory answer. The only answer that makes sense was that Cato needed to be more responsive to their needs. We would take closer marching orders. That’s totally contrary to what we perceive the function of Cato be.”

Cato’s leadership didn’t respond to this directive, nor did they change anything about the think tank. The Kochs began to change it for them. In February, they nominated 16 people for four slots on Levy’s board. Levy and others were aghast at some of the names. One nominee, Tony Woodlief, a former leader of several Koch-funded groups, had blogged in the past about “sanctimonious libertarians” who refused to get serious about policy. “Libertarianism in practice largely consists of a homogeneous group of people talking to one another about a narrow set of things that matter most to them (legalized drugs, lower taxes), and hoping that the rest of America will wake up and elect them to office,” he sneered in a 2002 post. “The majority of Americans are not, in fact, ‘live and let live’ types.” John Hinderaker, a lawyer and founder of the blog PowerLine, had backed the Iraq war and called George W. Bush a “man of extraordinary vision approaching to genius.

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The Center for Media and Democracy has the whole story on Herman Cain's smoking campaign dude, Mark Block. For a guy who claims to be savvy about business, Cain sure did hire a sleaze to run his campaign. Here are some of Block's prior associations with Koch-funded organizations.

Friends of Herman Cain - This is the PAC created to fund Cain's campaign.

Scott Sidney is the PAC's Director of Advance Operations. He previously worked for Americans for Prosperity in Wisconsin, and he has been listed as a representative of Americans for Prosperity-Wisconsin in presentations on organizing "Taxpayer TeaParties" against health insurance reforms as well as stating that he has been a "consultant" to Tea Party groups.

Even though FOH did not officially register until May 2011, it was listed as a creditor on Prosperity USA's financial documents in February 2011. The report lists accounts receivable "Due from FOH" for over $40,000 in Cain's travel expenses and for Apple Computer iPads. The PAC began raising and spending money in January 2011.

CREW has filed a complaint with the FEC about this. It's particularly notable because Mark Block has engaged in dealings like this before, dealings that barred him from politics for three years.

Prosperity USA

On July 31, 2010, the corporation filed an amendment with the state to change its name to "Prosperity USA, Inc." At that time, "Mark. J. Block" was listed as the president of the corporation. The organization's latest filing from July 31, 2010 shows Block to be president of the organization. He is currently listed as its registered agent on the State of Wisconsin Department of Financial Institutions website.

Prosperity USA's known spending on Mr. Cain's campaign expenses appears to have occurred in January or February of 2011, well after the period Mr. Cain became a "candidate" within the meaning of Code section 501(c)(3), in the view of the Center, and after Mr. Block became his campaign's chief of staff.

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Addressing Americans for Prosperity on Friday, Mitt Romney laid out a bevy of federal spending cuts which doubtless were music to the ears of AFP's funders, Charles and David Koch. To be sure, raising the eligibility age for Medicare and Social Security, capping Medicaid and converting the system into block grants for the states and shrinking federal spending below 20 percent of GDP are helpful parts of Romney's intense effort to woo the Koch brothers. But his biggest gift of all - eliminating the estate tax - would let the Kochs' heirs pocket billions of dollars at the expense of the United States Treasury. And as it turns out, the Romney clan wouldn't fare too badly, either.

Despite Republican mythology about family farms and businesses being lost to the so-called "death tax," by 2009 only 0.24 percent of estates even paid the levy. And that was before the December 2010 compromise President Obama inked with Congressional Republicans extending the Bush tax cuts further slashed the estate tax. The reduced 35 percent tax is now applied only to couples with estates greater than $10 million, a change which will cost Uncle Sam roughly $15 billion a year. Now, the Tax Policy Center calculated, only 0.1 percent of estates are impacted. Only 50 family farms and small businesses will be affected, and they contribute "less than one tenth of 1 percent point of the total revenue the tax will collect." Who pays the estate tax?

TPC estimates that 8,600 individuals dying in 2011 will leave estates large enough to require filing an estate tax return (estates with a gross value under $5 million need not file a return in 2011). After allowing for deductions and credits, an estimated 3,270 estates will owe tax. Roughly 90 percent of these taxable estates will come from the top ten percent of income earn-errs and nearly half will come from the top one percent alone.

Estate tax liability will total an estimated $10.6 billion in 2011. The top ten percent of income earners will pay 98 percent of this total. The richest 1 in 1,000 will pay $5.4 billion or 51 percent of the total.

Among that richest 1 in 1,000 are Charles and David Koch.

And as ThinkProgress explained, the elimination of the estate tax supported by Mitt Romney and every other Republican presidential candidate means a staggering windfall for the Koch heirs:

According to a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation, the Koch brothers' heirs' would save a combined $17.4 billion in estate taxes thanks to Romney's plan.

Each of the Koch brothers -- Charles and David -- is worth about $25 billion. They are each married, so they would receive an exemption on the first $10 million that they pass down, and then theirs heirs would pay a 35 percent tax, or $8.7 billion, on the rest of their vast fortunes.

Now, this is an exceedingly rough calculation, as it's almost certain that the Koch's have engaged in extensive estate planning and would pay nowhere near that amount. But 35 percent is the rate on the books, and Romney's plan to eliminate the estate tax entirely would undeniably save the Kochs a boatload of money.

As would the Romneys.

Despite his claims that "I'm also unemployed" and part of the "middle class," Mitt Romney is worth an estimated $250 million. So, the five Romney sons - the same ones who serve their nation by "helping me get elected because they think I'd be a great president" - when their parents Mitt and Ann leave the scene. Their payday courtesy of all other American taxpayers could reach $84,000,000 (35 percent of $240 million).

Of course, the Romneys' winnings would start well before their demise. After all, Governor Romney has called for making the Bush tax cuts permanent, lowering his own income tax rate from 39.6% in 2013 to 35%. Mitt would also see some gains from the elimination of the capital gains tax on the first $250,000. Despite his boast that "I focused my tax cut right there" on "the people in the middle," the Tax Policy Center found that "67 percent of the entire benefit from lower capital gains tax rates goes to millionaires." Millionaires, that is, like Mitt Romney.

Not that Mitt Romney needs any more tax breaks. After all, as Time's Michael Sherer pointed, Romney's own tax rate was estimated at only 14 percent, lower even than Warren Buffett:

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The Uptake talks to Wisconsin voters on the ground.

An open thread for results and news from Wisconsin's recall elections.

12:31 a.m.: Since I'm on the East Cost, I'm calling it a night. It looks like it'll be a while before a winner is declared and it looks like it'll be Darling (R). Hopefully I'll wake up surprised...

12:20 a.m.: Seems Nickolaus is already under investigation and Dems are calling for more.

12:16 a.m.: Multiple reports are saying that the outstanding precincts aren't enough for Pasch (D) to come back. State Dems are accusing Waukesha clerk Kathy Nickolaus of dishonesty or worse.

12:11 a.m.: WisPolitics reports Darling (R) taking a notable lead and multiple reports from the state are saying Darling will win.

12:03 a.m.: Unofficial counts via HuffPo, give Pasch about a 3000 vote lead with Menomonee Falls (in Waukesha County), a very red municipality, still to report. I'm not seeing this reported in official totals, though, that still have only 68 percent of precincts reporting.

11:59 p.m.: Tammy Baldwin previously asked for the federal Justice Department to investigate Waukesha County for previous shenanigans. Looks like that investigation is warranted more than ever. Obama et al. have to say yes to such an investigation.

11:54 p.m.: Waukesha County says no results for at least one hour. Waukesha was the county that "found" a bunch of votes to overturn the Prosser recount election.

11:48 p.m.: Not sure about the validity of earlier Pasch-Darling number (came in via HuffPo, but haven't been able to confirm it). Latest official numbers have it, with 68 percent reporting:

Pasch , Sandra Dem 23,804 51%
Darling , Alberta (i) GOP 22,693 49%

11:41 pm.: As reported earlier, two Dem pick-ups would've been enough to stop Scott Walker's collective bargaining bill, since one moderate Republican voted against it. On some level this is a victory regardless of what happens with Pasch.

11:39 p.m.: MSNBC calls it for King (D).

11:37 p.m.: Not sure what the percentage is, but Pasch leads by about 4500, but Republican strongholds still to come in.

11:35 p.m.: With 97 percent in, King (D) now up by more than 1000.

11:29 p.m.: Dems in Jess King's district say they are "certain" she will beat Hopper based on what votes are outstanding.

11:19 p.m.: John Nichols on MSNBC has been awfully accurate so far, he expects Pasch-Darling to get closer and expects King to take out Hopper.

11:17 p.m.: With 63 percent in, Pasch-Darling is getting closer.

11:13 p.m.: Question in King-Hopper race becomes, "what are the recount laws"?

11:10 p.m.: Pasch-Darling race looks to be the most expensive state legislative race in American history.

11:08 p.m.: MSNBC calls District 32 for Shilling (D).

11:04 p.m.: With 87 percent in, King retakes lead over Hopper by 137 votes.

11:02 p.m.: Everyone finally calling it for Olsen (R). First race where Dems were really hopeful of winning.

10:58 p.m.: Suprised race hasn't been called for Olsen (R) by anyone else. 96 percent in and reports say remaining districts are Olsen-friendly.

10:55 p.m.: With 79 percent in, Hopper (R) retakes lead by 500+ votes.

10:52 p.m.: Results starting to come in a lot slower. Is this the part of the night where we start waiting for long periods of time?

10:45 p.m.: WisPolitics calls race for Olsen (R).

10:43 p.m.: King (D) up by nearly 700 now. Three pick-ups looking good (but way too soon to call).

10:40 p.m.: With 94 percent in, Clark looks done for. Pasch and Shilling are expanding their leads.

10:38 p.m.: Fred Clark (D) keeps gaining on Luther Olsen, but he's running out of precincts.

10:34 p.m.: The four remaining races:

State Senate - District 8 - General

Wisconsin - 15 of 82 Precincts Reporting - 18%

Pasch , Sandra Dem 8,848 57%
Darling , Alberta (i) GOP 6,741 43%

State Senate - District 14 - General

Wisconsin - 98 of 126 Precincts Reporting - 78%

Olsen , Luther (i) GOP 17,504 54%
Clark , Fred Dem 15,155 46%

State Senate - District 18 - General

Wisconsin - 21 of 108 Precincts Reporting - 19%

King , Jessica Dem 7,464 50%
Hopper , Randy (i) GOP 7,368 50%

State Senate - District 32 - General

Wisconsin - 59 of 119 Precincts Reporting - 50%

Shilling , Jennifer Dem 11,353 53%
Kapanke , Dan (i) GOP 9,968 47%

10:30 p.m.: Jessica King (D) takes tiny lead over Randy Hopper (R), giving Dems leads in three races.

10:26 p.m.: Alberta Darling: "We're taking back the state." She appears to have forgotten that they already run the state and the fact that they are losing two races at the moment.

10:25 p.m.: Other races all too close to call.

10:22 p.m.: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel calls race for Harsdorf (R).

10:20 p.m.: With 72 percent in, Harsdorf (R) looks to be a winner, again, no surprise there.

10:16 p.m.: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel calls race for Cowles (R). This was the most conservative district.

10:15 p.m.: Pasch has taken a small lead over Alberta Darling (R), this is the game-changer. It's early, though, with only 18 percent in.

10:14 p.m.: With 80 percent in Cowles (R) is up big, almost certain to win. No surprise.

10:03 p.m.: The Ed Show is saying that most of the votes in so far are from rural areas and that many of the bigger cities had polls stay open for more than an hour after closing to complete the lines.

Results as of 10 p.m. EST:

State Senate - District 2 - General

Wisconsin - 44 of 90 Precincts Reporting - 49%

Cowles , Robert (i) GOP 10,777 57%
Nusbaum , Nancy Dem 8,029 43%

State Senate - District 8 - General

Wisconsin - 7 of 82 Precincts Reporting - 9%

Darling , Alberta (i) GOP 3,183 71%
Pasch , Sandra Dem 1,320 29%

State Senate - District 10 - General

Wisconsin - 61 of 114 Precincts Reporting - 54%

Harsdorf , Sheila (i) GOP 16,753 58%
Moore , Shelly Dem 12,056 42%

State Senate - District 14 - General

Wisconsin - 46 of 126 Precincts Reporting - 37%

Olsen , Luther (i) GOP 7,576 55%
Clark , Fred Dem 6,208 45%

State Senate - District 18 - General

Wisconsin - 8 of 108 Precincts Reporting - 7%

Hopper , Randy (i) GOP 3,025 54%
King , Jessica Dem 2,576 46%

State Senate - District 32 - General

Wisconsin - 29 of 119 Precincts Reporting - 24%

Shilling , Jennifer Dem 2,541 51%
Kapanke , Dan (i) GOP 2,468 49%

The Young Turks take a look at Wisconsin's recall elections.

Check back here throughout the day for news and updates on the Wisconsin recall elections (updates in EST).

-9:54 p.m.: Incumbents Cowles and Harsdorf appear to be cruising to victory, other races still too close to comment on.

-9:39 p.m.: With very early results (less than 20 percent reporting in all districts, less than 10 percent reporting in most districts), the only Republican currently losing is Dan Kapanke, the most vulnerable of the incumbents.

-9:16 p.m.: There was a machine malfunction in Fon Du Lac that caused some delays this afternoon

-9:01 p.m.: Polls are now closed in Wisconsin.

-7:43 p.m.: Fox is lying about Wisconsin unions, not surprisingly.

-Former Packer lineman Gilbert Brown did robocalls in favor of the recall.

-4:54 p.m.: Daily Kos:

Turnout is strong in Wisconsin today, but it is also not uniform:

As WisPolitics reports, city clerks in some municipalities say that turnout could be near the level of a presidential election -- though this is not true across the board, with other being closer to the hotly-contested state Supreme Court election this past April.

That is actually an enormous range. According to the article linked above, turnout in the April state Supreme Court election was 35 percent of the voting age population. However, turnout in the 2008 presidential election was 71 percent of the voting age population.

The big question is about where turnout is close to presidential levels versus where it is closer to the state Supreme Court election. If the higher turnout is skewed toward areas that favor one party, then we could end up seeing some real surprises—good or bad—tonight.

-3:01 p.m.: Uppity Wisconsin:

The fact worth noting in this right winger's analysis, which would make victory even sweeter: The seats being recalled represent 288 combined consecutive years of Republican representation. For the most part, the six seats up for election today are very GOP-heavy. Sen. Luther Olsen’s district has been represented by a Republican since 1896; Sen. Randy Hopper’s seat has been in Republican hands since 1936. Senator Rob Cowles’ seat near Green Bay was last held by a Democrat 61 years ago, in 1950. The least-Republican seat, held by Sen. Dan Kapanke for only seven years, is almost certain to go to the Democrats today.

-11:54 a.m.: Cognitive Dissonance:

I'm already receiving reports that teahadists are popping up at various polling sites and putting up handmade signs saying that an ID was needed to vote.

This is not true!!

If you have seen this, or have any other interference with your right to vote, call your election commission, and notify these folks, Wisconsin Election Protection.

But don't let these thugs intimidate you or trick you into not voting. Every single vote counts!

-11:28 a.m.: Cognitive Dissonance:

In one race rated a toss-up, Rep. Sandy Pasch (Whitefish Bay) has volunteers already lining up outside the doors this morning to challenge Sen. Alberta Darling in Senate district 8 just north of Milwaukee.

Because of the enormous outpouring, an insider this morning is now saying Pasch is likely to knock off Darling.

-7:48 a.m.: Cognitive Dissonance:

From a Fond du Lac voter this morning: "I wonder if I’m the only person who gets so upset at poll workers having to ask for picture ID. The man behind me in line, said 'Well, there’s no trouble here, but in Milwaukee (read black), there’s thousands of cases of vote fraud.' I told him that’s not true, and asked if he could even conceive of people wanting to vote so much that they would actually commit fraud (that’s not the right word anyway). I told him it’s been my experience that you cannot get people to vote easily enough. I think people just believe what they are told, don’t question anything and march in lockstep. I guess he’s a Republican."

-Darling Kills Voters Rights: Cheats for Lobbyists:

(via Cognitive Dissonance)

Most blog readers are well aware of what's happening in Wisconsin tomorrow, where six tea party-friendly state senators face recall elections. These elections are vital for Wisconsin -- particularly Wisconsin's working families -- because if Democrats win at least three of these seats, they will regain control of the state senate (Republicans currently hold a 19-14 majority) and can stop the extreme actions of Gov. Scott Walker and his conservative allies. Tomorrow's elections have been the target of more than $20 million and trickery from groups like Americans for Prosperity. On the other side, a host of progressive groups have lent a hand to fight against Walker's cronies in the state senate.

But the importance of the election goes well beyond Wisconsin. As many have pointed out, success in Wisconsin would show not only the power of the grassroots, but could serve as a bellwether for 2012's elections and could predict a "re-imagining of the Democratic Party." The senators up for recall are all conservatives who were able to win in 2008 despite Barack Obama's victory in the state and these victories would be a sign that the voters are fed up with right-wing assaults on working Americans. The elections could also set the stage for a recall of Walker himself next year and could play a big role in redistricting, where friendlier Democratic maps could help eliminate freshman Republicans Reid Ribble and Sean Duffy.

It's also important to note that the recall elections, if successful, would be a step in the right direction for achieving gender equality in office, particularly bringing progressive women into office:

The recalls in Wisconsin have been unprecedented for numerous reasons, but one that hasn't received much attention is the fact that women are running in five out of six of the recall races. The demographic population of Wisconsin shows men and women roughly evenly split, but in the State Senate only eight of the 33 Senators are women. In the recall races three progressive women are challenging three conservative men (with the other two challenging conservative women). If those seats are flipped that'll make the count 11 women in the State Senate or 33 percent of the Senate. Combining both chambers of the Wisconsin state legislature women only make up less than 23 percent of members.

Predictions range anywhere from Democrats sweeping all six seats tomorrow to only picking up one or two seats, which would not be enough to stop Walker's agenda. Almost everyone believes that voter turnout will be the key and a massive effort has been made to get out the vote tomorrow. As of August 3, the Democratic field program had reported the following:

As of this morning, over 11,700 volunteers and staff have knocked on 437,235 doors and made 716,339 phone calls for a grand total of 1,153,574 attempts! Our field team has been meeting and surpassing goals week in and week out and they are ready to move into GOTV.

We now have 87% of our GOTV shifts filled for our August 9th elections and 83% of our shifts filled for the August 16th Democratic protects in SD 12 and SD 22. Statewide we have 6,228 shifts filled. With only six days until our next set of elections, time is short but, we’re ready.

A quick preview of the six races that will be on the ballot tomorrow, in order of likelihood of a Democratic pick-up:

1. SD32: Most observers give this race to Jennifer Shilling over incumbent Dan Kapanke. Recent polling showed Shilling with a double digit lead.

2. SD18: Jessica King had a 8% lead over thug Hopper in a recent poll. In a just world, a guy like this would have no chance to hld this seat, and he only won it by 184 votes in 2008.

Randy Hopper: "I'm going to ruin you for every F-ing thing you've done"

3. SD8: This race has been within the margin of error in recent polls, but it's hard to see how an incompetent alleged criminal like Darling could hold a seat she only won by 1,007 votes in a district that went for Obama in 2008. Sandy Pasch would do both Wisconsin and the country a service by taking out Darling.

Alberta Darling: Can't name one job created in her district

4. SD14: Democrats believe they have a legitimate shot for Fred Clark to win here and take out Luther Olsen. Polling has shown the race to be within the margin of error and the party is excited about the paid media and GOTV efforts they've put forth in the district.

5. SD10: Shelly Moore has consistently trailed incumbent Sheila Harsdorf beyond the margin of error, but Democrats say the district is rabidly anti-Scott Walker and with GOTV efforts that are well beyond the goals they set, they think the race might still turn in Moore's favor.

6. SD2: Nancy Nusbaum also trails the incumbent -- Robert Cowles -- by more than the margin of error. Nusbaum has more money for the final push and Democrats point to an enthusiasm gap in the district that could help them pull off the upset.

It's not too late to help out in Wisconsin. If you are in the Wisconsin area, sign up to help get out the vote. If you are anywhere else, you can participate in virtual phonebanking. Next week, two more senate recall elections will take place, so things are far from being settled in Wisconsin.

To keep up with the up-to-the-minute details of the recall elections tomorrow, check out the following progressive Wisconsin blogs:

*Blogging Blue
*blue cheddar
*Cognitive Dissidence
*Dane 101
*illusory/tenant
*Left on the Lake
*Mal Contends
*Uppity Wisconsin

Dick Armey makes me want to punch myself in the face every time I have to be subjected to his "Why can't I opt out of Medicare and Social Security?" lament. In his latest appearance on CNN's Parker/Spitzer yesterday, he did it again:

ARMEY: I think they will do that. If it's going to happen, if will come out of the energy of the newly elected Republicans. But quite frankly there is so much work that has to be done, start with rolling back the new commitments that can't be fulfilled, which we did with the vote on Obamacare. But the fact of the matter is, on social security, just let it be voluntary on Medicare. I'll give you one, Eliot.

SPITZER: All right. OK.

ARMEY: A simple little thing.

SPITZER: It's not going to work, but that's --

ARMEY: Why can't the United States government allow Dick Armey, a 71-year-old fellow --

SPITZER: Right.

ARMEY: -- who makes a darn good living --

SPITZER: Right. ARMEY: -- opt out of Medicare without being punished? Just let Medicare be voluntary. I promise you there are a lot of wealthy old geezers and their wives in America --

PARKER: I don't think there are enough.

ARMEY: -- that would say to the federal government don't let us be a burden to you, we'll take care of our own health care. But this government is so devoted to the requirement that we be submitted to their dictatorship of our health care that they can't even let rich people out of Medicare. It's goofy.

Why can't Eliot Spitzer just pick up the ball and run with it, instead of giving an anemic response about how Mitt Romney understands mandates? It would have been simple enough to answer him with the truth, which is that Medicare and Social Security work because they are NOT optional?

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If you can't win the vote fairly, suppress voters. This has been a Republican tactic for years, and it's running rampant in Wisconsin. While polls are showing Russ Feingold at a shocking disadvantage to his teabagger opponent Ron Johnson, the GOP and Americans for Prosperity are working behind the scenes on a voter suppression scam that is on a far wider scale, but no different than Republicans have used for years.

Here's how it works: A mailer is sent to registered voters. Any mailers returned by the post office are put in a database and those voters are submitted to be purged from voting rolls. Of course, the targets are never Republican voters. They're Democrats, and generally minority voters in particular. Here's a better explanation from the Brennan Center for Justice:

Voter caging is the practice of sending mail to addresses on the voter rolls, compiling a list of the mail that is returned undelivered, and using that list to purge or challenge voters registrations on the grounds that the voters on the list do not legally reside at their registered addresses. Supporters of voter caging defend the practice as a means of preventing votes cast by ineligible voters. Voter caging, however, is notoriously unreliable. If it is treated (unjustifiably) as the sole basis for determining that a voter is ineligible or does not live at the address at which he or she registered, it can lead to the unwarranted purge or challenge of eligible voters. …Moreover, the practice has often been targeted at minority voters, making the effects even more pernicious. [Brennan Center, “A Guide to Voter Caging,” 6/29/07]

That audio file at the top is a recording obtained by One Wisconsin Now of a meeting of Wisconsin Tea Party leaders. Here's the plot:

According to the statements made on the recordings, Dake lays out the plans, detailing contact between himself and Reince Preibus, the Republican Party of Wisconsin Chair and Mark Block, state director of Americans for Prosperity-Wisconsin:

1. The Republican Party of Wisconsin will use its “Voter Vault” state-wide voter file to compile a list of minority and student voters in targeted Wisconsin communities.
2. Americans for Prosperity will use this list to send mail to these voters indicating the voter must call and confirm their registration information, and telling them if they do not call the number provided they could be removed from the voter lists.
3. The Tea Party organizations will recruit and place individuals as official poll workers in selected municipalities in order to be able to make the challenges as official poll workers.
4. On Election Day, these organizations will then “make use” of any postcards that are returned as undeliverable to challenge voters at the polls, utilizing law enforcement, as well as attorneys trained and provided by the RPW, to support their challenges.

In the case of students, this is particularly insidious, since a student may indeed be a registered voter in Wisconsin but not have the same address, given their tendency to move at the end of a semester. But you can see what's going on here -- it is a concerted effort, funded and pushed by Americans for Prosperity -- to suppress minority and young voters, and in so doing to win an election by strongarm rather than by votes.

One Wisconsin Now has uncovered this plot with evidence, but don't assume this is limited to Wisconsin. I guarantee you it isn't. They are targeting as many states as they can, but particularly swing states. Expect Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona just to name a few to have the exact same operations afoot.

Voter suppression undermines democracy. It is a bully tactic to disenfranchise minority and young voters. If you're as angry about this as I am, consider visiting Save Wisconsin's Vote and taking action.