On November 8, Iowa is holding a special election for a state senate race, something that wouldn't usually have national implications. Usually. This time, a small election with candidates not known much outside the state could help decide not only the future of the state, but could be a sign of a larger trend.

The election begins with a dirty trick from Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, doing his best to follow in the steps of Wisconsin and Ohio:

The Republicans have mounted a sneak attack - trying to send Iowa down the same terrible road as Wisconsin and Ohio. Democrats were clinging to a 26-24 majority in the State Senate, but the Governor appointed a Democratic senator to a statewide board, just so he could call a special election that could allow Republicans to take control of the State Senate and the entire Iowa state government1.

This snap special election will be held in less than two weeks on November 8. If Republicans win, there'll be a 25-25 tie, which would be broken by the Republican Lieutenant Governor. The super-thin Dem majority in the State Senate is our only protection against all kinds of evil Republican schemes.

The Republican candidate is Cindy Golding, the co-chair of the Linn County Republican Party, and if you have any doubt about the importance of the election, the line-up of conservatives supporting her should put those doubts to rest. Pumping money into the race are Rick Santorum, the Team Iowa PAC, the Concordia Group, the National Organization for Marriage and the Family Leader (which is connected to the Family Research Council).

The Democrat is Liz Mathis, who is described as a progressive by bloggers and Netroots activists at Daily Kos and elsewhere. Mathis has outraised Golding in the short election cycle and Democrats have a 2-1 advantage in absentee ballot requests. Those interested in supporting the campaign can join Progressive Kick and Working Families Win via ActBlue. You can read her bio at her website to learn more.

If Golding wins, a host of important issues are in the balance, including marriage equality, collective bargaining, increasing use of nuclear power and numerous others. A conservative victory could boost fund raising and encourage conservatives in other states, widening the battlefield that has dominated a number of swing states this year.

You can follow the election at Blog for Iowa and Bleeding Heartland.

What the results of the "too close to call" election in NY-20 tells us is that it's a huge win for President Obama and another repudiation of Republicans in Congress. With a 70,000 voter advantage and Republicans spending almost double in Tedisco's district, the fact that Murphy leads by under a hundred votes is pretty amazing. Nobody I talked to thought there was a remote chance that Murphy had a shot at this.

Tedisco gave up over a 20-point lead faster then Usain Bolt ran the 100-yard dash in the Olympics. So just how unpopular is the Republican party?

The DCCC's Chris Van Hollen said it best:

"From 21 points down to securing a majority of the vote tonight, congratulations to Scott Murphy who ran an extraordinary campaign focused on his record as a successful businessman who helped to create jobs and his strong support for President Obama's economic recovery act. As votes continue to be counted, we're confident that Scott Murphy will expand his lead.

"Scott Murphy's strong showing in this district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 70,000 represents a rejection of the obstructionist agenda and scare tactics that have become the hallmark of House Republicans."

Free Republic readers are freaking out.

To: napscoordinator

Why did we not win this seat easily.

Because half the voters are stupid enough to vote for the Democrat.

That would be a lot of stupid Republican voters...

Today is the day that NY-20 votes in the special election. CNN highlighted the race on The Situation Room and asked if it was a referendum on Obama-Nomics. John King looked at past elections in that district and realized while Obama took only 51% of the vote, it's traditionally a Republican district. Bush won it both times.

In one of the last polls taken, the Democratic challenger grabbed a four point lead and that has Tedisco shaking. King downplayed the election and said that if someone only grabs the win with a small percentage of voters then it's no big deal. Hey KING, there are 70,000 more republicans registered there. 70,000. If Tedisco loses it is a BIG DEAL.

Ex-McCaniac Dan Diaz, downplayed the significance of the race with Blitzer as having no national implications because he senses a problem there.

We do know that Tedisco is already filing a motion to overturn the election.

Tedisco is upset with the NRCC because they have been running attack ads against Murphy. Good times, good times.

Either way, Michael Spassky Steele has a lot riding on this election because his start as head of the RNC has been so embarrassing. A loss in a republican district will not look too good for the man who never makes any "gaffes." Oh, well, maybe a loss with 70,000 more voters on his side is what he really wants. You can never tell with the chess master.

You can be sure that if Tedisco wins, the cautious stance republicans are taking will shift into a full court press and screamathon about how this election proves America is not behind President Obama when it's a seat that they should easily capture. A lot of us weren't happy with Paterson's choice of Gillibrand because she did hold the seat in a republican district and in essence by picking her, he was giving up the seat to the republican just say no caucus. More shall be revealed. (Updated post)

Crooks & Liars is really proud of all the progressive candidates we got behind in 2008 and we're excited about the winners who are starting work in Washington this week-- as well as our California neighbor/Blue America superstar, Rep. Hilda Solis, who will be leaving Congress to become Secretary of Labor in the Obama cabinet. We expect great things from Hilda, and from new members of Congress like Alan Grayson (D-FL), Larry Kissell (D-NC), Jared Polis (D-CO), Eric Massa (D-NY), Tom Perriello (D-VA), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Jim Himes (D-CT), Gary Peters (D-MI), Mark Schauer (D-MI) and of course from Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR).

But this isn't the time to sit back and rest on our laurels. Soon there will be a special election to fill Hilda's seat. And this week it was announced that the special election to fill Rahm Emanuel's seat in Chicago (IL-05) will be on April 7, with the crucial Democratic primary in this overwhemingly Democratic district (PVI: D+18) on March 3. March 3; that's like in a few weeks! Good news though, one of the best progressives to run for Congress in years anywhere tossed his hat into the ring yesterday: labor lawwyer, activist and author Tom Geoghegan (pronounced gay-gun).

If you're a fan of someone who has already proven himself a tough and unrelenting fighter for progressive ideals, from single payer health care to the unfettered rights of workers to unionize to livable pensions for retired workers comparable to the rest of the industrialized world's, please join me in donating to Tom's campaign. And if you take a look at DownWithTyranny, you'll find a special party-in-a-box offer for anyone who donates today.

USA Today: Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, who runs the committee tasked with helping elect Republicans to Congress, said Tuesday's defeat in Mississippi — after losing GOP seats in other special elections in Illinois and Louisiana — was evidence that "a large section of the American people doesn't have confidence in the Republican Party." ...He said, "When you lose three of these in a row, you have to get beyond campaign tactics and take a long hard look: Is there something wrong with your product?"

Open thread below....

That's what happens when you lose three for three critical races in what used to be "safe" Republican districts, Sparky.

HuffPo:

Frustration among the House Republicans with Minority Leader John Boehner is apparently so great that some members are already considering a challenge.

As the Republicans lost their third special election in a row on Tuesday -- a feat not seen in 30 years -- Chuck Todd reported on MSNBC:

It is a seismic sort of shift, and sort of think of what you're gonna see the Republican Caucus... I have already been hearing whisper campaigns about John Boehner, the Republican leader, people are thinking about challenging him. Is he not being strident enough? You've got all sort of back biting and in-fighting. It is not a good night in the House Republican Caucus.

Ah, but it was a great night for the rest of us.

Absolute shocker tonight as the special election in MS-01, one of the reddest districts on the map, has been won by Democrat Travis Childers. Russert, Matthews, Olbermann, and even Huckabee all agree: this is very, very bad news for the GOP.

Download | play Download | play (h/t Heather)

Both Darth Cheney (Russert's words) and Mike Huckabee campaigned for Childers' opponent. Maybe it's not a good idea to have the least popular guy in America promoting you. Just a thought.

The Democrats are now 3-for-3 in these red district special elections: Along with Childers' win tonight, Bill Foster took Denny Hastert's old IL seat, and Dan Cazayoux took the solidly red 6th district in LA.

Another bit of good news comes out of Nebraska tonight, where true Democrat Scott Kleeb beat out fake Democrat Tony Raimondo by a wide margin for the right to take a run at Chuck Hagel's open seat. Congrats, Scott.

Our man skippy the bush kangaroo went to show his support of the WGA strike in Hollywood, and it looks like there's going to be some more picketers out there:

it looks like the networks are going to get squeezed from all sides. the news writers for cbs have voted to go on strike. hollywood reporter:

after working without a contract for more than two years, cbs news employees represented by the wga east have approved a strike through an authorization vote.

eighty-one% of the 75%-80% of the union's rank and file who turned out in a special election thursday and friday voted to authorize the strike. that, however, doesn't mean a strike is imminent. it first would have to be approved by the negotiating committee and upper echelon of the wga.

the wga already is in a three-week-old strike with many of its members in a separate union for tv and film writers, which has resulted in picket lines in new york and on the west coast. the cbs news union's negotiating committee is scheduling a meeting after thanksgiving to assess the situation, wgae president michael winship said..[..]

if this were a conservative blog, we'd make some crack about how the cbs news execs were going to have to make the news up themselves now.

I don't know about you, but I'm seriously jonesing for The Daily Show and Colbert Report...anything that's gonna squeeze the networks into getting to the table and negotiating is good with me.

LA Times:

The Roll Call newspaper in Washington reported on its website this evening that former House Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois intends to resign his House seat later this year.

The subscription-only site said Hastert, who had already announced he would not seek reelection in 2008, was calling friends and associates today and telling them of his decision. His early departure would create the need for a special election in his exurban Chicago district, possibly on Illinois' Feb. 5 presidential primary day.[..]

Three Republicans--Chris Lauzen, Jim Oberweis and Kevin Burns--are already vying for the party's nomination, while Bill Foster, a wealthy Democrat, appears to lead the waiting Democratic field.

Howie at DWT notes that there hasn't been a lot of speculation as to why Hastert is leaving....hmmm....In any event, there are an awful lot of Republicans lately reading the writing out of the wall...Kay Bailey Hutchinson has said she'll be leaving her seat early as well (to run for the Texas governorship).

I worked on statewide races in Kentucky in 2002 and 2003. So I know the politics reasonably well.

Republican Anne Northup in KY-03, has always found a way to win by pretending she is more moderate than she is and using pork to buy off certain African-American elites in the church community. She now trails her Democrat challenger by 50% to 48% with 81% of the vote counted.

In KY-02, where coincidentally we lost our first of many seats in 1994 in a special election, we should not be in the game. But we are up 2% right now! If we win these two races, which could be called 2nd and 3rd tier pickup opportunities, respectively, get ready for a huge night.

One more thing. Congressman Ted Strickland has already won his race for the governorship of Ohio, ending 16 years of Republican control of the Ohio statehouse. He is a star in an important state. Look for him to make VP short-list conversation in the coming months.